Could the Browns Actually Beat the Steelers Tonight on Thursday Night Football? (Update: YES!!!)

I realize that the question posed in the title of this post probably sounded absurd to you when you first read it, but should that be the case?

Look, we all know how bad the Browns have been this year. They’ve won one game: a 6-3 road “victory” over the hapless Buffalo Bills who have since fired the head coach who presided over that horrific war of gridiron attrition. And most weeks, they have not even been competitive.

And when they are competitive, they lose to the Lions.

Add to that the fact that the Browns have already fired a GM who was on the job for less than a year and that their best player, Shaun Rogers, is injured and out for the season.

There really is not a lot of hope to cling to here.

But consider these facts about the Steelers: they’ve lost four games in a row, are coming off of a 4th quarter home collapse to the Raiders, and they are still without the lynch-pin of their defense, Troy Polamalu.

So I will repeat the question: could the Browns actually beat the Steelers tonight on Thursday Night Football?

Quickly, here are the particulars for tonight’s game from our NFL Week 14 picks and TV schedule post, including my pick from Monday morning when the lines were first posted:

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Cleveland Browns (1-the rest of ‘em)

• Steelers-Browns Date: Thursday, December 10
• Steelers-Browns Kickoff Time: 8:20
• Steelers-Browns TV Network: NFLN
• Steelers-Browns Announcers: Bob Papa and Matt Millen
• Steelers-Browns Point Spread: Steelers -10
• Steelers-Browns Over-Under Odds: 36.5
• Steelers-Browns Spread Pick (from Monday): You have no idea how badly I want to pick the Browns here. I really do. And there is a part of me that even thinks it’s a good pick since the game is in Cleveland. But I just…can’t…do…it. Maybe I’ve just seen too many Cleveland massacres at the hands of Pittsburgh, but I can’t wrap my mind around this year’s Browns keeping it within double-digits against a QB and a team that owns us, especially when that team absolutely has their back against the wall. I hope I’m wrong. Steelers-Browns free pick: Steelers -10

As you can see, I really wanted to pick the Browns then – and that was just to cover – and I’d really like to pick them now as having a legit opportunity win.

Hines Ward is dinged up and there is a possibility that he might not play tonight, which is another notch on the we-have-a-chance side of things.

But sadly, I have just become too conditioned to expect disastrous performances, especially against Pittsburgh, to be able to answer my own question in the affirmative.

Ben Roethlisberger owns the Cleveland Browns, and for some reason the Browns tend to save their worst football for when they are at home. Yes, they kept the final score against the Chargers respectable, and they almost beat the Bengals at home earlier this year, but Cleveland also got murdered by the Packers, Ravens, and Vikings in front of their home fans.

I think that tonight we will something in between those extremes. I don’t think Cleveland will get embarrassed, but I certainly don’t have enough faith in Brady Quinn and his frighteningly young receiving corps to make a public proclamation that Cleveland can defeat a two-time Super Bowl winning QB and the rest of the Steelers.

Remember, despite being 6-6 and dropping four in a row, Pittsburgh is in a crowded field of teams that are one game behind Jacksonville for the final Wild Card spot. a 10-6 record will almost certainly net a playoff spot, with 9-7 a possibility. These are still the defending champs and their back is firmly planted against the wall.

Ward or not, Polamalu or not, home or away, hot or cold, I just don’t think Pittsburgh loses this game.

If given the chance, I might change my spread pick – might – as Cleveland could very well keep the final score in the single digits. However, until Brady shows me that he can win a close game in the 4th quarter, I won’t believe that he’ll be able to do it against one of the masters of such feats.

Browns-Steelers prediction: Steelers 28 | Browns 17

Update: This is why I love Twitter. Immediately upon tweeting about this post, I received some great feedback from our friends at Thunder Treats (@thundertreats):

I totally agree with you’re post, but will the cold and snow be a factor too? Could the snow replace Rogers as the best on D?

This is a great point. Weather.com has snow in the forecast for this evening, which could really make things tricky for the offenses and reduce the explosiveness that we’ve seen out of the Steelers’ passing game this year.

But it will do the same for the Browns, and perhaps even be even more detrimental because the Steelers actually have a running game with Rashard Mendenhall. The Browns, however, no longer have behemoth Jamal Lewis to churn out the tough yards in cold weather. Rather, we have Jerome Harrison and Chris Jennings, neither of whom has proven himself at the NFL level as the kind of between-the-tackles back who can carry an offense in bad weather.

Brady Quinn will need help from his running game tonight, and I’m not sure he can get it.

Thus, in response to the tweet from Thunder Treats, I do think that the snow will be a factor, but I don’t think it improves Cleveland’s chances much, if at all. Oakland came back on Pittsburgh by taking advantage of holes deep in the secondary thanks to Polamalu’s absence. In bad weather, will the vertical passing game even be available? If it’s not, and I Harrison’s shiftiness in the passing game is hindered by the field conditions, the Browns’ O could really sputter.

Revised prediction, taking the weather into account: Steelers 21 | Browns 10

Now that I’ve given two predictions, I figure it’s only fair to let you have your say:

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* – Ben Roethlisberger photo credit: AP Photo/ Gene J. Puskar via PennLive.com

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