Quick World Series Five-Game Recap and Revised Prediction

I need not recap the past five games too much, since TV ratings, as expected, have been extraordinary.

I think any baseball fan (not of the Yankees, I suppose) is happy we’ll see a World Series Game Six for the first time since 2003, due primarily to AJ Burnett’s ineffectiveness on three days rest, and of course, the magical bat of one Chase Utley.

I picked the Phillies in five, especially after they split in New York, and was wrong.

I find it amazing that, especially coming into the late innings of Game Four, three of the Yanks best players — Teixeira, Cano, Rodriguez — were all hitting under .100 in the series, and yet the Yanks were on their way to a 3-1 lead.

I guess that means New York has outpitched Philly, recorded the outs when needed, caught the balls when necessary, had the key choppers and flares find holes or drop (especially Damon, Posada and Jeter, sans Monday night in the 9th), and that Ryan Howard, MVP of the NLCS, has done nothing offensively — other than tie the World Series record for strikeouts in just five games.

Considering this background, I think Philadelphia will lose the series, because:

1. Their bullpen simply won’t be able to hold late leads on the road. They were awful much of the season, decent in the first two rounds, but reverted backwards in Games Four and Five. If Madson, Lidge and others struggled in front of a supportive crowd, how will they fare in a hostile Bronx versus a delirious crowd hungering for their first world title in a decade? Not well, my friends.

2. Charlie Manuel, who, in 48 hours has gone from genius to moron, then back to genius, won’t bruise Ryan Howard’s ego and rightly hit him 5th or 6th Wednesday night. The big first baseman clearly won’t touch Andy Pettitte or C.C. Sabathia; meanwhile, Jayson Werth hit two homeruns off Pettitte in Game Three, and therefore should hit 4th. Otherwise, Howard will be a liability and extend his record for Ks in a world series/postseason. He has 21 punchouts in 45 lifetime World Series at bats. That’s really, really bad.

Throwing Pedro Martinez in Game Six, considering his mostly-solid work in Game Two, is a no-brainer, as is throwing Andy Pettitte, who won Game Six for New York vs. Anaheim.

But what about Game Seven?

The Yanks will turn to Sabathia, which is hard to argue, but for Philly? Cole Hamels is an emotional wreck, and J.A. Happ has 28 career big league starts.

As for the Yankee bullpen, Damaso Marte will be used as much as possible, plus Mariano Rivera, who, overall, has been his usual self. The rest of the Yankee pen has been underwhelming.

Yanks in…seven.

I think Pettitte loses Game Six, or does not get a decision. Two of his four starts this postseason has been substandard, and three days rest will be difficult for the 37 year old Louisianan. But Sabathia gives New York enough on Thursday night — especially with the impending indecision on Philly’s starter – to give the Yankees their 27th world championship.

Johnny Damon — six hits in the last two games — will keep chugging along, and is named MVP. (Though, naturally, this morning on ESPN radio, Buster Olney and Mike Greenberg mused that if Chase Utley homers tonight — thereby breaking Reggie Jackson’s record for dingers in a Fall Classic — he should get strong consideration for MVP, especially if no one on the Yanks has a big night, and Rivera gets an easy save in a 6-2 or 5-1 victory. I disagree for reasons I need not enumerate.)

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* – Charlie Manuel photo credit: Chris Gardner/Getty Images via About.com

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