Update: The NFL Week 17 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks post is up.
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BAM! Now that’s what I call a comeback.
After two straight sub-.500 weeks that had me one more really bad week away from the .500 line for the year, I dominated in Week 10. After a 12-3 record picking against the spread, I am now up to 78-58 on the year, which is a very solid 57% success rate.
With how zany and unpredictable the NFL is, and considering the fact that I pick these games based on gut instinct at the beginning of the week, I will take that all day long.
But there is no time to revel in past glory. It’s already Tuesday morning and another week of NFL football starts in less than 72 hours on Thursday night.
As always, here is your TV schedule, announcer lineup, and spread picks for each game.
A couple of quick things to keep in mind:
- The bye weeks are over. Everyone is playing this week.
- All times are ET.
- Some games do not have all of the information filled in as of this post being published (i.e. a few games don’t have spreads yet and the announcer assignments have not yet been announced). I’ll up date this post as soon as the information is available at the506.com.
- Point spread and over-under listings are as of Monday night, and obviously subject to change throughout the week. If you want update point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, below are a few helpful links.
- DocSports: NFL Odds
- DocSports: NFL Picks
And with all that said, here is your mood music and the Week Eleven TV schedule, point spreads, announcers, free picks, and byes.
NFL Week 11 Viewer’s Guide
TV Schedule – Announcers – Kickoff Times
Point Spreads – Free Picks – Odds – Over-Unders
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers
- Dolphins-Pathers Date: Thursday, November 19th
- Dolphins-Pathers Kickoff Time: 8:20
- Dolphins-Pathers TV Network: NFLN
- Dolphins-Pathers Announcers: Bob Papa and Matt Millen
- Dolphins-Pathers Point Spread: Panthers -3
- Dolphins-Pathers Over-Under: 43.5
- Dolphins-Pathers Spread Pick: Both of these teams bring great rushing attacks into this one, which will make it a terrific old-school football game. The key for the Panthers, as always, will be protecting the ball and allowing DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to dominate on the ground. Jake Delhomme has been playing better of late, and with the Dolphins likely without Ronnie Brown, this is a game the streaking Panthers should win. Dolphins-Panthers free pick: Panthers -3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
- Steelers-Chiefs Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Steelers-Chiefs Kickoff Time: 1:00
- Steelers-Chiefs TV Network: CBS
- Steelers-Chiefs Announcers: Ian Eagle and Rich Gannon
- Steelers-Chiefs Point Spread: Steelers -10
- Steelers-Chiefs Over-Under: 40
- Steelers-Chiefs Spread Pick: Oh how I pity the Chiefs. The Steelers are going to be riled up coming off of their loss to the Bengals and they are good enough to take it out on Kansas City. I know that Big Ben looked rusty last week, but I think this is a game where the Steelers’ running and passing games can get back on track. Steelers win going away. Steelers-Chiefs free pick: Steelers -10
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
- Falcons-Giants Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Falcons-Giants Kickoff Time: 1:00
- Falcons-Giants TV Network: FOX
- Falcons-Giants Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, and Tony Siragusa
- Falcons-Giants Point Spread: Giants -6.5
- Falcons-Giants Over-Under: 46
- Falcons-Giants Spread Pick: The Falcons are really struggling and will most likely be without Michael Turner. The Giants are also reeling, but will be fresh coming off of their bye week and also get cornerback Aaron Ross back. I think we are going to start some better from football from the Giants and it will start Sunday. There is no line as of me making these picks, but I’m taking the Giants. That’s how confident I am in their ability to win this one, and win it handily. Falcons-Giants free pick: Giants minus whatever the spread is
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Saints-Buccaneers Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Saints-Buccaneers Kickoff Time: 1:00
- Saints-Buccaneers TV Network: FOX
- Saints-Buccaneers Announcers: Sam Rosen and Tim Ryan
- Saints-Buccaneers Point Spread: Saints -11
- Saints-Buccaneers Over-Under: 50.5
- Saints-Buccaneers Spread Pick: Look, Tampa Bay’s play over the last two weeks has been cute. They beat Green Bay and played the Dolphins tough. Neither of those teams, however, is anywhere near as good as New Orleans. There is no way that Josh Freeman is competing with Drew Brees and the Saints got all the wake-up call they needed last week against the Rams. The Saints will dominate. Saints-Bucs free pick: Saints -11
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Bills-Jaguars Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Bills-Jaguars Kickoff Time: 1:00
- Bills-Jaguars TV Network:CBS
- Bills-Jaguars Announcers: Bill Macatee and Steve Beuerlein
- Bills-Jaguars Point Spread: Jags -8.5
- Bills-Jaguars Over-Under: 42.5
- Bills-Jaguars Spread Pick: The Jaguars play much better at home than on the road and have somehow worked their way into being a game out of the final playoff spot in the AFC. The problem for the Bills in this matchup is that what they don’t do well on defense (stop the run) is exactly what the Jags do very well (hand it off to MJD). I don’t totally trust the Jags’ offense and David Garrard, however, so while I think Jacksonville will win, I like Buffalo to keep it close enough to cover. Bills-Jaguars free pick: Bills +8.5
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
- Browns-Lions Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Browns-Lions Kickoff Time: 1:00
- Browns-Lions TV Network:CBS
- Browns-Lions Announcers: Don Criqui and Randy Cross
- Browns-Lions Point Spread: Lions -3.5
- Browns-Lions Over-Under: 38
- Browns-Lions Spread Pick: This one wins the award for Game of the Year so far. Two great teams, mano-a-mano, in what could certainly be a Super Bowl preview. Wait a minute…okay, never mind. There is not line on this one right. I’m anticipating that Detroit will be favored by 3 or 4.5 since they are at home. I’m taking the Lions. The Browns have shown me that little. Despite being my favorite team, I’m taking the Lions and giving the points. Unreal. Browns-Lions free pick: Lions minus whatever the spread is
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
- Redskins-Cowboys Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Redskins-Cowboys Kickoff Time: 1:00
- Redskins-Cowboys TV Network: FOX
- Redskins-Cowboys Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
- Redskins-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -11
- Redskins-Cowboys Over-Under: 41.5
- Redskins-Cowboys Spread Pick: Dallas is the most Jekyll & Hyde team in the NFL this side of Arizona. Who thought they would lay such a pathetic egg in Lambeau? That’s the kind of performance they usually reserve for December. Anyway, I think Dallas will rebound with a nice home victory, but not a dominant one. Division games are almost always close because of the familiarity, and I don’t see this one being any different. Plus, while Washington’s offense is not very good, they are good defensively. That will keep the score low and close. Redskins-Cowboys free pick: Redskins +11
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings
- Seahawks-Vikings Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Seahawks-Vikings Kickoff Time: 1:00
- Seahawks-Vikings TV Network: FOX
- Seahawks-Vikings Announcers: Dick Stockton and Charles Davis
- Seahawks-Vikings Point Spread: Vikings -11
- Seahawks-Vikings Over-Under: 46
- Seahawks-Vikings Spread Pick: Sorry Seahawks fans, but this just is not a good matchup for you. Jared Allen is a beast and will be able to eat up the Seahawks’ porous O-line. And after giving up 30+ pts to Arizona last week, what do you think Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson can do? Someone may get the Vikings before the end of the regular season, but I don’t see it happening in Minnesota. I see another Vikings blowout this weekend. Seahawks-Vikings free pick: Vikings -11
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
- Colts-Ravens Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Colts-Ravens Kickoff Time: 1:00
- Colts-Ravens TV Network: CBS
- Colts-Ravens Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf
- Colts-Ravens Point Spread: Colts -1
- Colts-Ravens Over-Under: 44
- Colts-Ravens Spread Pick: I am sure that Indy will be favored, probably by four or five points, but I think this is a classic trap game for the Colts. Coming off of their emotional win over New England, the Colts will have a slight dropoff intensity, and that is not something you want to do in Baltimore. The Ravens essentially had a bye week, dismantling Cleveland 16-0, and something tells me they’ve had their eye on this game for a while. Remember how the Ravens almost upset the Patriots when they were undefeated in 2007? Well this is a much better Ravens team. I wouldn’t be surprised if Baltimore pulled off the upset, and I certainly think they’ll cover whatever the spread is. Colts-Ravens free pick: Ravens plus whatever the spread is. (Update: Damnit I wish the spread was bigger!)
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
- 49ers-Packers Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- 49ers-Packers Kickoff Time: 1:00
- 49ers-Packers TV Network: FOX
- 49ers-Packers Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
- 49ers-Packers Point Spread: Packers -6.5
- 49ers-Packers Over-Under: 42.5
- 49ers-Packers Spread Pick: Tough one. The Packers played very well last week against Dallas and have an explosive offense when they can protect Aaron Rodgers. The 49ers have been up and down this year, and while they stop the run very well, they are not all that great against the pass. I think the Packers’ passing game gets it going this weekend and Green Bay rolls to a solid home victory. 49ers-Packers free pick: Packers -6.5
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
- Cardinals-Rams Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Cardinals-Rams Kickoff Time: 4:05
- Cardinals-Rams TV Network: FOX
- Cardinals-Rams Announcers: Ron Pitts and John Lynch
- Cardinals-Rams Point Spread: Cardinals -9
- Cardinals-Rams Over-Under: 46.5
- Cardinals-Rams Spread Pick: The Rams are really playing hard for new head coach Steve Spagnuolo right now, and the Cardinals are up and down. They have been playing better lately, but I see this as a game the Rams can keep close. Arizona will win, but the Rams play another playoff team close. Cardinals-Rams free pick: Rams +9
New York Jets at New England Patriots
- Jets-Patriots Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Jets-Patriots Kickoff Time: 4:15
- Jets-Patriots TV Network:CBS
- Jets-Patriots Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
- Jets-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -10
- Jets-Patriots Over-Under: 45
- Jets-Patriots Spread Pick: Normally this might be a game where you’d think New England could have a Sunday night hangover after the tough loss to Indy. But it’s the Jets, and we saw in 2007 what the Patriots do to teams when they get pissed off. Remember all the trash talk by the Jets early in the season, and how they pulled off the upset? I’d take the Patriots if the line was 20. This is going to be ugly. Jets-Patriots free pick: Patriots -10
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
- Chargers-Broncos Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Chargers-Broncos Kickoff Time: 4:15
- Chargers-Broncos TV Network:CBS
- Chargers-Broncos Announcers: Dick Enberg and Dan Fouts
- Chargers-Broncos Point Spread: No line as of Tuesday morning
- Chargers-Broncos Over-Under: No line as of Tuesday morning
- Chargers-Broncos Spread Pick: They are waiting to see if Kyle Orton will play before setting this line. I personally don’t care. The most Denver would be favored by is three points, but I see the Chargers winning by more than that. San Diego is playing really well right now and Philip Rivers is one of the five best QBs in the game. With Denver reeling, I’m making the momentum pick here. Chargers-Broncos free pick: Chargers minus whatever the spread if they are favored, and obviously plus any points if that’s how the spread turns out
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders
- Bengals-Raiders Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Bengals-Raiders Kickoff Time: 4:15
- Bengals-Raiders TV Network:CBS
- Bengals-Raiders Announcers: Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots
- Bengals-Raiders Point Spread: Bengals -9.5
- Bengals-Raiders Over-Under: 36
- Bengals-Raiders Spread Pick: Not a big fan of this one. Oakland is not great, but they can sneak up on you at home (right Philly?). Cincinnati is coming off of its biggest win in years and will be playing without Cedric Benson. I don’t think Oakland wins, but I bet Carson Palmer has to pull out a late drive to salt this one away. A valiant Raiders effort comes up short. Bengals-Raiders free pick: Raiders +9.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
- Eagles-Bears Date: Sunday, November 22nd
- Eagles-Bears Kickoff Time: 8:20
- Eagles-Bears TV Network: NBC
- Eagles-Bears Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
- Eagles-Bears Point Spread: Eagles -3
- Eagles-Bears Over-Under: 45
- Eagles-Bears Spread Pick: It’s a Prime Time game, so we know that Jay Cutler will be turning the ball over left and right. Seriously, until Cutler proves that he can produce when the bright lights are on, how can you pick the Bears? Yes, they are at home, but I don’t trust Cutler at all. I’d rather have him prove me wrong and beat me than pick him again and get burned. Eagles-Bears free pick: Eagles -3
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
- Titans-Texans Date: Monday, November 23rd
- Titans-Texans Kickoff Time: 8:30
- Titans-Texans TV Network: ESPN
- Titans-Texans Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
- Titans-Texans Point Spread: Texans -4.5
- Titans-Texans Over-Under: 48
- Titans-Texans Spread Pick: A few weeks ago this did not look like such a fun game. Now that Houston is a game out of the AFC Wild Card, and Vince Young has made the Titans competitive again, this should be a really entertaining game. First bit of advice: take the over. You’ve got Chris Johnson on the same field as Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. There will be scoring. I don’t think Tennessee is a world beater by any means, but this is still a team that went 13-3 last year and that is playing much better now with Vince Young at QB. And do you really trust Houston yet? I don’t. Titans-Texans free pick: Titans +4.5
About Jerod Morris
