Steelers-Broncos Monday Night Football Preview and Prediction

Editor’s Note: AJ Kaufman’s weekly MNF coverage on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

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Check out Sadler’s Monday Night Football Recipe of the Week: Sadler’s Smokehouse Pulled Pork Stew

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4th and Short NFL Picks Podcast

Jerod and Myles discuss Week 9 of the 2009 NFL schedule

[Note: All MSF podcasts are available for free at iTunes. Intro and outro music provided by Indy's own Henry French and the Shameless.]

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Monday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (6-1)

• Steelers-Broncos Date: Monday, Nov 9th
• Steelers-Broncos Kickoff Time: 8:30 pm
• Steelers-Broncos TV Network: ESPN
• Steelers-Broncos Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Steelers-Broncos Point Spread: Steelers -3 (as of Saturday morning)
• Steelers-Broncos Over-Under: 40 (as of Saturday morning)
• Steelers-Broncos Spread Pick by Jerod: Did the glass slipper fall off of Denver last week in Baltimore? Or was it just a one week blip? We will certainly find out Monday night, but I think Denver is good enough to get more respect than being a three point home dog. Pittsburgh has been uneven this year and I think Denver will be able to slow down Big Ben and the passing game. With Rashard Mendenhall’s fumbilitis, I think plenty of opportunities will be there for Denver to get good field position and win a low scoring game. Steelers-Broncos free pick: Broncos +3

Steelers-Broncos MNF Preview and Analysis

While analysts around the league have suggested that last week’s loss against the then .500 Ravens is a “sign of things to come,” Broncos fans need not get wrapped up in such conjecture.

After all, the Ravens could easily be 6-2 if not for a back-breaking missed field goal in the closing moments of their loss to Minnesota, and a Ray Lewis unnecessary roughness penalty (that seemed literally back-breaking) against Ochocinco and the Bungles. Plus, historically, Denver is terrible against the Ravens, for whatever reason.

That being said, the true test for the Broncos will be how they bounce back from the loss against a very dangerous Pittsburgh Steelers team.

Kyle Orton’s performance against the Ravens was typical…for 2008. For 2009 however, it was his worst performance of the year. I think that much of the blame however has to be deferred onto Josh McDaniels who inexplicably refused to take chances down the field.

It has been posited (and I believe rightfully so) that the deep ball is the most deficient part of Orton’s game, and with deep threats like Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, it is reasonable that the Broncos go deep every now and then. Without that “vertical element” to the game, the Ravens were able to effectively jam receivers on the line and jump the short routes. They also were able to consistently keep eight men in the box, and in doing so, completely shut down the Broncos running game.

McDaniels will probably have to try and stretch the field (with a relative amount of success) in order to avoid another offensive meltdown.

The Broncos also have a big injury concern on their hands, as starting Right Tackle Ryan Harris has been ruled out for Monday Night’s game. Harris has done a good job this year, shoring up the line and providing Orton with enough time to get through his progressions.

With Harris out, the Broncos are left with Tyler Polumbus–a former undrafted free agent making his first NFL start. He will be matched up against LaMarr Woodley , who had 18 sacks last year in the regular season and playoffs combined. Yikes. Expect Tight End Tony Scheffler to help out Polumbus, thereby limiting his potential in the passing game.

The Broncos defense has been rock solid, and looked good again last week (with the exception of the 4th quarter). Denver’s biggest weakness is their secondary depth, of which they have practically none — leading to the Friday signing of five-time Pro Bowler, Ty Law.

Meanwhile, now that dandruff-free Troy Polamalu is back to full health, the argument can be made that the defending title holders are still the team to beat. Ben Roethlisberger is enjoying an MVP-caliber season, and Hines Ward keeps crack-blocking and grinning his way to 100 yard games.

There are, however, some causes for concern in Steel City. The first is that Travis Kirschke (who replaced Aaron Smith after his season ending injury) will probably miss the game this week. That means that the Steelers will be starting third-stringer, Nick Easton; but more importantly, that their D-line may struggle to get consistent pressure on Kyle Orton from the strong side.

Perhaps the bigger issue is that Lawrence Timmons has been held out of practice all week, and has now been ruled questionable for Monday Night’s game. Timmons has been a consistent cog in the Steelers 3-4 who has explosive play-making ability. His replacement, Keyaron Fox, has an explosive first name, but not much else.

The other “major injury concerns” for the Steelers are of little consequence.

Willie Parker, whether he is 100% or not, has already been supplanted by the more talented and better pass-blocking, 22 year-old Rashard Mendenhall, and Mewelde Moore is among the best 3rd down backs in the league. Also Ryan Clark’s absence from the game (because of a sickle-cell trait that reacts poorly with the “mile high” atmosphere) will be mitigated by veteran Tyrone Carter, who, despite not provide as many bone-crushing hits, will be just fine.

Steelers-Broncos MNF Prediction

Despite the Steelers injury concerns, I think they are the more talented team–the significantly more talented team. That said, Denver is primed for a rare Monday night game. The team that somewhat lost its Mile High dominance the past few years is still undefeated at home. I lean their way as an underdog.

Steelers-Broncos pick: Broncos +3

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