Earlier this week in my start em, sit em post, I recommended that you should start David Garrard over Matt Shaub in Week 9. I’ll let you read the post to get the full detail of the reasoning, but it boiled down to the following two points:
#1 – the Colts have the 7th best pass defense in the league in terms of yards given up (180.1 yards per game) and have given up the fewest touchdown passes (three). Thus, I looked at Matt Schaub as a shaky start.
#2 – David Garrard and his Jaguars are at home this week taking on the Kansas City Chiefs and their crappy pass defense. Garrard is only playable when he’s at home and this seems like about as plum a matchup as you’ll get if you’re a Garrard owner.
There is a problem though. A couple of them. And I’m changing my vote to Schaub over Garrard for Week 9.
Here are the two issues:
- First off, the more I’ve thought about this, specifically as it relates to a Schaub-Garrard debate, the more I’ve begun to question my own line of thinking in voting for Garrard.
- Second, and most importantly, Marlin Jackson and Bob Sanders have both been declared out since I wrote my post, thus severely diminishing the Colts’ ability to defend the pass, at least in theory.
In regards to the first issue, while I do believe there were significant red flags about Schaub for Week 9 (0 TDs, 2 INTs last week; Indy’s prowess against the pass) I overlooked the likelihood that this game will turn into a shootout.
We know that Indianapolis has a terrific passing offense led by Peyton Manning, and Houston’s secondary is not scaring anyone. The Texans will likely be throwing the ball a lot just to try and match Peyton and the Colts TD for TD.
Still though, if the Colts’ secondary was really as good as its stats suggest, the threat of a shootout still wouldn’t make Schaub a must-start.
But take a closer look at the Colts’ opponents this year. It suggests that their pass defense numbers may be as much a function of who they’ve played as it is evidence that they have a dominant secondary:
- Jacksonville – 19th in passing yards, 5 passing TDs on the season
- Miami – 29th, 5 TDs
- Arizona – 8th, 11 TDs
- Seattle – 17th, 12TDs
- Tennessee – 26th, 6 TDs
- St. Louis – 24th, 6 TDs
- San Francisco – 22nd, 9TDs
All of Indy’s opponents except for one has been in the lower half of the league in passing offense. Surely their one game against Indy contributed to that, but each team has six or seven other games of stats woven into those numbers.
I think it’s safe to say that Indianapolis’ current pass defense rankings are a little inflated. And now their starting CB plus their former Defensive Player of the Year safety have been removed from the mix. With Matt Schaub and Houston boasting the league’s third most prolific passing attack, we may see those Indy pass defense numbers take a hit this week.
Now, none of this changes my thoughts on Garrard. He is still a good start and I expect a solid day from him, with at least one TD and the potential for two or three. However, I most certainly would rank Matt Schaub above him and I am officially changing my outlook for Schaub to a start ‘em for Week 9.
Here are my revised Matt Schaub Week 9 fantasy projections: 315 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
My apologies to anyone who benched Schaub based on my Tuesday post. I take 50% of the blame because I do believe that my initial thinking was somewhat flawed, but I would not have changed the call were it not for the depletion that has occurred in Indy’s secondary over the past 48 hours.
It’s a good lesson in the fluidity of fantasy football recommendations and information. Everything is in flux until Sunday about 15 minutes before kickoff. It’s just the nature of the beast.
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* – Matt Schaub photo credit: ColtsAllDay.com
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