Thanksgiving Night Preview: Giants-Broncos Spread, Analysis, and Pick

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Thanksgiving Night Football Preview

New York Giants (6-4) at Denver Broncos (6-4)

New York Giants at Denver Broncos

• Giants-Broncos Date: Thanksgiving Night, Thursday, November 26th
• Giants-Broncos Kickoff Time: 8:20
• Giants-Broncos TV Network: NFLN
• Giants-Broncos Announcers: Bob Papa and Matt Millen
• Giants-Broncos Point Spread: Giants -6.5
• Giants-Broncos Over-Under: 42
• Giants-Broncos Spread Pick by Jerod: Denver is really playing poorly right now. The Giants haven’t been all that great themselves, but they are scoring points. I don’t think Denver will be able to contain Eli Manning and the Giants, and I don’t think the Broncos have any kind of rhythm on offense right now. Even though this game is at home for Denver, I think their precipitous slide continues. Giants-Broncos free pick: Giants -6.5

Giants-Broncos Analysis

I was in Denver to watch the debacle against a suddenly-cocky San Diego team, and Bronco fans are incensed; the team is simply desperate, having lost four consecutive after opening the campaign with a startling six triumphs in a row. Mix in any other clichés, but one wonders, historically, do desperate teams usually prevail or continue their free-falls?

New York needs wins, but their victory over Atlanta — which broke their own four game slide — helped make Thursday night slightly less urgent for the Giants.

All the talk radio buzz, as I drove thru the Rockies Monday morning, was about Josh McDaniels more than the Broncos. They griped about Knowshon Moreno’s fumble, some inexcusable penalties, players’ lackluster effort, and Brandon Marshall’s altercation with Moreno, but mostly, and perhaps overdue, the ire went toward the 33-year old coach — for many reasons:

1. Not starting Kyle Orton when clearly, considering he came out in the second quarter, he could play.
2. Leaving Kyle Orton in late in the 4th when game was not in doubt, thereby risking injury and the rest of Denver’s once-promising season.
3. The team’s attempt of an on-side kick, down 13-3 mid-third quarter with momentum arguably swinging.
4. A 4th and 4 ”gamble” while down 20-3 late in the 3rd at San Diego’s 40 yard line.
5. Trash talking, reportedly.

Numbers 3 and 4 were fine decisions. Anyone picking on that, and many did, is wrong in my view. One and two, plus of course five, are legit gripes. The most common words being mentioned are “ego,” “maturity,” and “Belichick disciple.” Hopefully, the man local media once upon a time (late-October) called a “genius,” can figure out how to avoid New York’s new “secret weapon.”

So how does Denver respond on a short week?

Fewer days in between games could be the best thing for them to get taste of 22 November out of their collective mouths. A win over a New York team unhappy to be away for Thanksgiving night, and the Broncos are right back in the playoff picture, even if/when San Diego beats Kansas City Sunday afternoon at Qualcomm.

Otherwise, Denver’s done, and they know they’ll have ten long days to wallow before a tough road trip that includes the undefeated Colts in a fortnight.

Look for Orton to start the game, and unlike last Sunday when he was forced to throw due to the quick deficit, not necessarily abandon running game as Chris Simms inexplicably did (despite success).

The Giants will look to keep up the offensive improvement which saw Eli Manning have a career best day, yet only escape with an overtime win. Last week’s 39-yard performance notwithstanding, Brandon Jacobs has emerged a bit of late, while Ahmad Bradshaw has been hampered by a nagging injury that has sapped him of his explosiveness. I’d go as far as postulating that the Giants have not been the same team without his being a major factor of the offense. Jacobs, despite a minor leg issue, should be fine for the game.

Thankfully for Big Blue, Mario Manningham has finally gotten over a nagging injury and looked very good last week. He has an explosiveness that gives the Giants passing game an element that they have been missing in prior weeks.

The Giants, who also look to save their season, will look to score often against a Denver defense which has not been as porous as their in-fighting offense, but still not ten percent as good as it was the first six weeks while allowing an NFL-low 66 points.

The Chargers rushed for 203 yards and two touchdowns in week 11. This is remarkable, considering Denver didn’t allow an opponent to rush for more than 100 yards until their week 8 loss to Baltimore. Then, in the past four games, the Broncos haven’t held a team to fewer than 125 rushing yards (Also, Brian Dawkins, as of publication, is considered unlikely to play for the Broncos.)

Giants-Broncos Prediction

The Broncos need to bring intensity versus a Giants team that is very beatable, and has a suspect interior defense that Atlanta exploited late in last week’s tight one at the Meadowlands. If Denver gets behind early, look for the malaise and pessimism to set in at Invesco (I saw it last weekend), and this guy to get behind center before poor Simms does.

Conversely, the Broncos are due to rebound and they’ll have a (mostly) healthy Orton.Therefore, my gut says go with Denver and the over. The Giants aren’t the same team offensively when they don’t have Bradshaw playing at full capacity, and Danny Ware certainly doesn’t provide what Bradshaw provided, or alternatively, what veteran Derrick Ward provided last year.

New York has not played in Denver in eight seasons. On September 10, 2001, opening Monday night of the season following the Giants’ Super Bowl loss to the Ravens, Terrell Davis, Brian Griese and Rod Smith outlasted Tiki Barber and Kerry Collins, 31-20.

The following morning, the world changed forever.

Giants-Broncos spread pick: Broncos +6.5

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* – Josh McDaniels photo credit: Deadspin

* – Eli Manning photo credit: Politics, Sports, Anything

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