This post is from 2009!!!
Click for the 2010 Start em Sit em picks for Week 10.
Week 9 was very interesting for me from a real and fantasy picks perspective.
I went to sleep last night thinking I’d lost by 0.5 points in one league because of Miles Austin’s one catch. But, as so often happens in leagues with IDPs, the stats had changed by Monday morning and I led by 3.5. I’m hoping this holds up once the totals become final tomorrow.
From a picks perspective, last week was unique in that I really went out on a limb picking David Garrard over Matt Schaub. Then the defense opposing Schaub (Indy) lost two key starters and I issued a change to my recommendation regarding the Texans’ QB.
And then, naturally, Schaub went out and had a pedestrian day (311 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) that did not eclipse what Garrard was able to do against Kansas City (264 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 29 yards rushing).
In hindsight, I should have stuck with my guns; but, the truth is that I did stick with my principles in issuing my Schaub retraction. It was the right decision. Remember, we’re trying to predict a game in which Chris Chambers can be one of the top scorers at WR during the same week he got cut by San Diego and ended up in Kansas City.
Without much rhyme or reason, all you’ve got is your principles. My principles have me above .500 and in playoff contention in all six of my leagues.
And this is what I always tell people who ask me for advice on tough questions: what are your princples? Go with them.
And if you don’t have them, get them. I’ll be happy to help if I can.
Before we get to the Week 10 start ’ems and sit ’ems, here is a little love for one of our favorite content sponsors, Sadler’s Smokehouse:
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As we always do, here is a quick look back at Week 9 to keep myself accountable for my picks:
- Start ’em hits: Vincent Jackson, SD; Brent Celek, PHI; Seattle D/ST
- Start ’em misses: Jamaal Charles, KC;
- Sit ’em hits: Hakeem Nicks, NY; New York Giants D/ST; Knowshon Moreno, DEN
- Sit ’em misses: Greg Olsen, CHI (HUGE MISS!!! SORRY!!!!);
- Ughs: Matt Shaub and David Garrard; honestly, these guys were basically just middle of the road guys and don’t deserve to be classified as hits or misses.
Now let’s break down the Week 10 start ’em, sit ’em picks. Remember to sit your Texans and Giants, as both teams are off this week.
Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice
Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Quarterbacks
Start ’em: Brett Favre, Minnesota (vs Detroit)
Ladies and gentleman, this is what you call a no-brainer. I know that Brett Favre has been dealing with some injury issues concerning his groin, but I honestly don’t care. In fact, I would not be surprised if Favre only plays 2-3 quarters in this game, but, again, I honestly don’t care.
Here is what matters to me:
- Brett Favre has thrown 16 TDs and only three INTs on the year; plus, he’s coming off of a bye and should be rested and ready to go. And by the way, his TD:INT ratio is 8:1 at home.
- Detroit is 31st in the NFL against the pass and has given up 19 TDs.
What is there not to love? Start Favre and enjoy three TDs in the first half as the Vikings roll.
Brett Favre Week 10 fantasy projection: 225 yards passing, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
Other start ’em QBs for Week 10:
- Joe Flacco is taking on the Browns. You could do worse.
- Drew Brees is playing St. Louis, but if you need this article to tell you to start Brees you should have your team taken away from you.
- Tony Romo is a must-start right now. He’s playing great football and while he may not be putting up the WOW numbers, he is consistently giving you solid production. Get him in your lineup against Green Bay unless you’ve got a really good alternative.
Sit ’em: David Garrard, Jacksonville (at New York Jets)
There are obvious sit ’ems, and then there are obvious sit ’ems. Here are your numbers:
- The Jets are second in the NFL, giving up only 165.2 yards per game. They also have only allowed five TD passes all year (they shut out Drew Brees, remember) and have seven picks.
- The Jets are coming off of a bye and playing at home. They’ve had to listen to Rex Ryan’s craziness all week…I think they’ll be riled up.
- David Garrard has only six TD passes on the season and all of them have come at home.
Seriously, what more do you need to know? David Garrard is a guy I’ve been counting on all year in one league and I’m considering starting Felix Jones over him. That’s how little faith I have in Garrard to do anything against the Jets this weekend.
Honestly, I hope not too many of you are counting on Garrard as your starter in a 1-QB league, but I know that many people with Garrard as their second QB in 2-QB leagues will be wondering about his prospects for this week. I think that if Garrard is your option, this is a very good week to break the principle of always playing a second QB in an open flex spot.
David Garrard Week 10 fantasy projection: 205 yards passing, 0 TD, 1 INT, 40 yards rushing
Other sit ’em QBs for Week 10:
- Kyle Orton is coming off a short week and facing Washington’s very good pass D. Sit him.
- Vince Young is still not worthy of starting, in case you were wondering. This week the Titans face the Bills, who are a sieve against the run but who have only given up six TD passes all year long.
- Carson Palmer is facing Pittsburgh’s terrific D. If you have another option, I’d consider it depending on that option’s matchup.
Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Running Backs
Start ’em: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City (at Oakland)
Yes, I know that I’m picking Jamaal Charles as my start ’em RB for the second week in a row. And yes, I realize that he was a total dud last week. But I am undeterred and recommending him wholeheartedly for the following reasons:
- Kansas City released Larry Johnson today, meaning that Charles is guaranteed to continue seeing his role expand.
- Even though his cumulative totals were not great last week, Charles still averaged 6.0 yards per carry and caught three passes. Yes, nine touches pissed me off too, but I expect it to increase this week.
- Oakland sucks, we know that. But they especially suck against the run, giving up 161 yards rushing per game and 13 rushing TDs on the season.
I do think that Kolby Smith will get some carries as well, but I still look at Charles as the best guy to own because of his career YPC average and pass catching ability. I promise that if Charles lays an egg this week that I’ll stop recommending him, but I am putting my money where my mouth is and starting Charles in every league in which I own him.
Jamaal Charles Week 10 fantasy projection: 80 yards rushing, 1 TD, 55 yards receiving
Other start ’em RBs for Week 10:
- Laurence Maroney has scored in three straight games and Indy gives up more rushing TDs than they do passing TDs.
- Ray Rice is a weekly start, but just in case you were considering benching him, he’s facing Cleveland this week. Unless you’re deciding between Rice and Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson, you start Ray Rice.
- Chester Taylor is a sneaky good start if you’re hurt by the Texans/Giants bye. Minnesota will probably blow out Detroit and will no doubt want to rest Adrian Peterson in the 4th quarter. Especially in a PPR league, I’d consider Taylor.
Sit ’em: Clinton Portis, Washington (vs Denver)
Portis left last week’s game against Atlanta with a concussion and is already considered doubtful for this Sunday’s matchup with Denver. I am listing Portis here to take all of the suspense out of your decision: even if Portis somehow plays, sit him.
Denver is third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (although that will probably change after Monday night against Pittsburgh) and had given up only three rushing TDs heading into Week 9. Thus, Week 10 would not present a good matchup for Clinton Portis even if he was completely healthy. Just stick him on your bench and don’t agonize over this one even if his condition improves by week’s end.
Clinton Portis Week 10 fantasy projection: 0 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ’em RBs for Week 10:
- I know that Portis is kind of a cop-out considering the fact that he likely won’t play anyway, so here is the one I’ll count when I tally up my successes/failures next week: Julius Jones. I know he was great in Week 9, but that was at home against Detroit. Seattle is on the road this week in Arizona, which has given up only five rushing TDs all year. Plus, Jones is a notoriously crappy player on the road. Sit him!
- Kevin Smith isn’t even taking advantage of plum matchups this year. I have zero faith in him against Minnesota, especially when the Lions will probably be down and throwing all game.
- I really hope this goes without saying by now, but sit Jamal Lewis. Baltimore’s D is still in the top 10 against the run and Cleveland simply can’t get Lewis into position for goalline carries.
Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Wide Receivers
Start ’em: Calvin Johnson, Detroit (at Minnesota)
No, MegaTron is frustratingly not an obvious must-start anymore. Still, despite his two-catch return from injury last week, and what appeared to be a slight rift between he and his QB on the sidelines, I like Johnson this week. Yes, his talent has a lot to do with it, but there is something else that has a lot more to do with it:
Detroit will be down early and forced to throw the ball a lot.
The Lions are, simply put, in a completely different stratosphere from the Vikings. Minnesota is a bona fide Super Bowl contender, whereas Detroit will be lucky to get to three wins. I think the Vikings will have this game wrapped up by halftime, which will provide a great opportunity for Matt Stafford and Johnson to work on their timing and rapport.
Would you really be surprised to see the two connect for one or two garbage time TDs in the 4th quarter? I wouldn’t. Stafford and Johnson are the Lions’ future; the second half of this game will be all about the two of them getting on the same page.
Calvin Johnson Week 10 fantasy projections: 9 catches, 125 yards, TD
Other start ’em WRs for Week 10:
- If I owned Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, or Percy Harvin I would start them all.
- Nate Burleson and TJ Houshmandzadeh should be good starts as well. Arizona is 29th against the pass and the Seahawks will probably be down early and unable to run the ball.
- Derrick Mason only had three catches last week, and only has seven over his last two games, but the Ravens are playing Cleveland Monday night. Everyone on the Ravens’ O should get back on track.
Sit ’em: Austin Collie, Indianapolis (vs New England)
Calling “sit” on an Indy WR may not seem like such a great choice, but there is both a gut feeling and stats/logic behind it.
- Gut feeling: the stakes get raised when it’s Indy v New England (i.e. Manning v Brady). I think Peyton is going to be even more predisposed to go to his trusted hands in this game. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai, and even Pierre Garcon have been with Manning longer than Collie. This ‘aint St. Louis the Colts are playing, if you know what I mean, and Manning is going to be extra focused (i.e. anal and less willing to throw to a rookie).
- Stats/logic: The Patriots are 4th in the NFL against the pass, giving up only 179.4 yards passing per game. Yes, they have allowed nine TDs, and yes I do expect Peyton to have a big game, but do you really trust a rookie against a Bill Belichick defense? If I had a good alternative, I wouldn’t mind taking it.
Collie has had a very good season thus far for a rookie. He’s already caught four TDs, which places him ahead of many veterans that are considered to be elite. But Indy faced a huge test last week against Houston and Peyton only found Collie twice. In comparison, Pierre Garcon had five catches.
Trust is huge with Peyton Manning and the truth is that Collie simply hasn’t had enough time to build it to be counted on in a game as monumental as every Colts-Pats game is. If you have somewhere else to go (like Garcon), do it this week.
Austin Collie Week 10 fantasy projection: 3 rec, 31 yards, 0 TD
Other sit ’em WRs for Week 10:
- Obviously I am not high on either Mike Sims-Walker or Torry Holt this week. I do think MSW will get 5-6 catches, so he might be startable as a WR#3 or flex.
- Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal are guys I’d consider sitting, Royal for sure and Marshall depending on who else you have. They are facing Washington, which is allowing the fewest passing yards in the NFL and less than a TD per game.
- Roy Williams is still not a guy I’m buying…yet. I want to see him get some targets in the red zone first. Yes, GB has given up 16 TDs this year, so you could do worse, but continue to be wary of Roy in TD-focused leagues until he proves that he can reach paydirt.
Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Tight Ends
Start ’em: John Carlson, Seattle (at Arizona)
Umm…did you see what Greg Olsen did to Arizona last week? That would be three touchdowns.
John Carlson is coming off of a six-catch game and will undoubtedly be a key target for Matt Hasselbeck in a game in which I expect Seattle to be down early. Carlson only had seven catches in the three weeks preceding Week 9, but he should be a very solid start in Week 10.
John Carlson Week 10 fantasy projection: 6 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD
Other start ’em TEs for Week 10:
- Vernon Davis is a must start now and I list him here as a way to gloat about the fact that I was right on him in the preseason and when he struggled through the first few weeks of the year.
- Visanthe Shiancoe needs to be in your lineup with Minnesota taking on Detroit.
- Kellen Winslow is facing a weak Miami pass D and we all know that tight ends are the best friends of rookie QBs.
Sit ’em: Fred Davis, Washington (vs Denver)
I know that Fred Davis had eight catches and a TD in Week 7, but he came back to earth in Week 9 with only two receptions and 26 yards. Facing Denver’s D in Week 10, and with constant turmoil on the Washington O, I’m not putting my trust in a guy who should be backing up Chris Cooley.
Fred Davis Week 10 fantasy projection: 2 catches, 20 yards, 0 TD
Other sit ’em TEs for Week 10:
- Tony Schefler is facing Washington’s top-ranked pass defense.
- Ben Watson remains far too inconsistently targeted for my tastes.
Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Defense / Special Teams Units
Start ’em: Baltimore Ravens D/ST (at Cleveland)
The D/ST category is where it’s really nice to have the Browns back in action. I know that Baltimore’s D has struggled the last few weeks, but they are facing Cleveland this week. Ed Reed always seem to have a big play when these two teams play, and Eric Mangini isn’t even naming a starting QB until Wednesday. The Browns are a disaster and you should take advantage.
Baltimore D/ST Week 10 fantasy projection: 10 points or less, 3 TOs, 2 sacks, 1 TD
Other start ’em D/ST units for Week 10:
- Denver’s D didn’t have a great showing against Pittsburgh in Week 9, but they face Washington’s terrible offense in Week 10. Solid start.
- Miami’s D isn’t the greatest in the world by any means, but they are facing a rookie QB in Josh Freeman that is going to have his ups and downs. You could do worse.
Sit ’em: Indianapolis D/ST and New England D/ST (facing eachother)
I said it in this week’s NFL picks and TV schedule post, and I believe it: the Colts-Patriots game is going to be a shootout. Do you really want to start the Colts D without Bob Sanders going against Tom Brady, Randy Moss. and Wes Welker? And do you really want to start New England’s D with Peyton Manning on the other side, motivated by the fact that he’s lining up against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick?
I would want to stay as far away from this game as possible. You should too.
Indianapolis and New England D/ST Week 10 fantasy projection: lots of points, very few turnovers
Other sit ’em D/ST units for Week 10:
- San Francisco did not fare well against the Titans last week and I’m not optimistic about their chances to shut down Jay Cutler. The 49ers have been fading as of late, while Chicago’s offense is actually playing pretty well.
- Atlanta does not stop the run particularly well, while the Carolina Panthers are very good at running the ball. Honestly, I think this game will be high scoring; I’d prefer not to start either D.
And there you have it. The Week 10 start ’em, sit ’em post is in the books; and unlike last week, I don’t foresee writing an addendum to it on Friday.
As always, the comment section is below for your questions. We had over 150 comments on last week’s post, which I believe set a record. I wonder if we can get to 200 one of these weeks…?
I’m counting on you MSF fantasy nation. Let’s get to 200!
Best of luck in Week 10. And remember: if you’re out of the playoff race, don’t quit on your league. Keep setting your rosters like you’re fighting for the last playoff spot. You would want your leaguemates to do it for you, and it builds your fantasy karma for future seasons.
And yes, I believe in fantasy karma.
In fact, I believe it’s why I woke up this morning to a W (as described above) after going to sleep last night lamenting a loss.
I never quit on a league, and you shouldn’t either…not matter how many games out you are.
* – Brett Favre photo credit: Daily Mail
* – Jamaal Charles photo credit: Top Fantasy Football
* – Calvin Johnson photo credit: The Sports Union