Thursday night football is here, which means that our usual lineup setting routines are now thrown out of whack.
Though the Thursday night game won’t affect every team every week, most of us, across all of the leagues that we play in, will most likely have a key decision or two that will have to be made three days earlier than before.
This is annoying and can lead to the unnecessary benching and/or starting of players. The trade-off, however, is an extra night with an NFL game.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Because I know that many of you will be late to the party in realizing that you have to decide on your Bears and 49ers players by tonight, I have taken the liberty of doing the dirty work for you. Here is your 49ers-Bears fantasy analysis, complete with start/sit recommendations so you don’t even have to think about it.
First, here are the particulars of the game (from our Week 10 TV schedule, announcers, and picks post) and my pick, for those of you interested:
- Bears-49ers Date: Thursday Nov. 12
- Bears-49ers Kickoff Time: 8:20
- Bears-49ers TV Network: NFL Network
- Bears-49ers Announcers: Bob Papa and Matt Millen
- Bears-49ers Point Spread: 49ers -3
- Bears-49ers Over-Under: 43.5
- Bears-49ers Spread Pick: About a month ago, this looked like it was going to be a pretty good game. Then October happened…and the Bears and 49ers quickly slid down the NFC standings. The 49ers sit at 3-5 and haven’t won since they signed Michael Crabtree. Still, they are only two games behind Arizona, and I feel like they are playing better overall than the Bears, who are 4-4 and coming off of a shellacking against Arizona. I just can’t see Mike Singletary allowing Jay Cutler to come into his house and get a win. I like a fired up, back-against-the-wall, this-is-our-house 49ers team to grind out a win…but I’m betting it’s closer than three points. Bears-49ers free pick: Bears +3
Now, a quick look at each team’s defensive stats, courtesy of NFL.com:
- Scoring Defense: 49ers – 21.8 ppg (17th) | Bears – 23.9 ppg (22nd)
- Total Defense: 49ers – 334.2 ypg (19th) | Bears – 326.0 ypg (15th)
- Pass Defense: 49ers – 241 ypg (24th) | Bears – 206.5 ypg (12th)
- Pass TDs allowed: 49ers – 9 (8th) | Bears – 16 (28th)
- Run Defense: 49ers – 93.2 ypg (4th) | Bears – 119.5 (21st)
- Run TDs allowed: 49ers – 8 (20th) | Bears – 7 (17th)
Basically these two teams’ defenses are pretty similar and suggest that there should be more scoring than what you might expect based on the recent histories of the 49ers and Bears.
Let’s break it down position by position:
[Note: When you're done here, you can also check out our Week 10 start em, sit em column for analysis of the weekend games.]
Quarterbacks
You have to like Jay Cutler in this one. He is coming off a 3-TD performance against Arizona and played very well despite the team’s overall poor performance.
By this point everyone should know what they’ll get with Cutler: a lot of yards, a good amount of TDs, plus an INT or two that will cut down on the final total. I’m not starting Cutler over guys like Philip Rivers or Tony Romo, but he’s a good bye week fill-in for Matt Schaub or a solid start in a 12- or 14-team league.
As for Alex Smith, I’m not a huge fan, but you could do worse. He has thrown six TDs over the last three games, but he’s also tossed five picks to go along with them. The Bears’ secondary has proven that TDs are there for the taking, and I’d expect Smith to at least connect with Vernon Davis for one. Still, Smith is nothing more than an emergency spot-start or #2 QB in a 2-QB league.
Running Backs
Frank Gore starts every week. Don’t ask questions.
Matt Forte is a bit of a trickier issue. Here are his carry totals the last three weeks: 6, 26, 5. The first and third totals were affected by the Bears getting down huge early to the Bengals and Cardinals, and Forte did have ten receptions in those two games. Regardless, Forte owners continue to be frustrated by his production, which is especially detrimental in non-PPR leagues, where his 30 receptions don’t mean as much.
Despite his struggles, you have to start Forte. I know that the 49ers are 4th in yards allowed per game on the ground, but you don’t have Forte because he racks up huge rushing totals. You have him for the fact that he gets touches and has the best chance of any Bears RB to get a TD. You drafted him high in the first round and most likely don’t have too many stud options behind him on your bench. Start him, and hope that tonight is his coming out party in 2009.
Wide Receivers
On the San Francisco side, I am just a big fan of any WRs. Only three of the 49ers’ receiving TDs have come from WRs and two of them were from the unheralded Jason Hill last week. Yes, the same Jason Hill whose only four catches of the year came last week. I want to see more from this guy before I pick him up, let alone start him.
The same holds true for Michael Crabtree. I know that everyone is curious about him because of his college dominance and then his holdout, but the truth is that he is just not that relevant yet (or shouldn’t be, at least) from a fantasy perspective, and this is true of most rookie WRs. Yes, he has 14 catches in three games, and there are certainly worse options out there, but I want to see him get into the endzone before I’m starting him. If you’re really hurting, I guess Crabtree is a solid #3 option, but that’s it.
In Chicago, Devin Hester has reached must-start status with his consistency and big play ability. He is really coming along better as a receiver than I ever thought he would and clearly has found solid chemistry with Cutler. The other Bears WRs, Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett, are crap shoots. Bennett is okay from a PPR perspective if you’re desperate, while Knox is a boom-or-bust type whose potential for returns TDs gives him a little extra value. I would not want to have either in my lineup though.
Tight Ends
The two hottest names in tight ends this week are Vernon Davis and Greg Olsen, the latter of which is coming off a 3-TD game against Arizona.
You definitely start Davis, who has quickly emerged as one of the top TE options in the league. Not only does he have seven TDs on the season, but his catch numbers have been pretty good, with five or more catches in eight games. I know that he ran his mouth this week about the Bears’ D-Line, but who cares. He is the top target in the 49ers passing game and gets plenty of chances in the red zone.
As for Olsen, the talent has always been there but the consistency has not been. He does have two one-catch games this year, but both of those game in the first four weeks of the season. Since the bye, Olsen has caught 17 balls in four games and has four TDs.
I think you have to start him unless your other option is a stud like Davis or Tony Gonzalez. Especially if you sat him during his 3-TD outburst last week, you don’t want to be kicking yourself if goes off again. The nice thing is, Olsen is developing a strong enough relationship with Cutler that his 0- and 1-catch days should be in his past.
D/ST Units
I don’t like either defense at this point, and I dropped the 49ers in a couple of leagues this week. Both give up too many yards and too many points, and I think this game will be in the 20s and not offer a whole lot of value. If I had to choose one, I’d want the Bears because of the threat of special teams scores.
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* – Jay Cutler / Greg Olsen photo credit: Viva Ron Mexico
About Jerod Morris
