Wisconsin-Ohio State Preview and Prediction

Ohio State v Wisconsin has been one of the more exciting Big Ten matchups over the past three decades, with the Bucks holding only a 13-10-1 advantage since 1980.

In fact, there has even been some animosity that has carried over onto the field in the past.

Remember 2003 in Madison, Buckeye LB Robert Reynolds tackling then-Badger QB Jim Sorgi, choking the QB and knocking him out of the game?

Ironically Ohio State choked the game away, giving up a late 80-yard TD pass to Lee Evans, losing 17-10.

At the time, my grandpa claimed the 1993 (14-14 tie) game ended on a blocked field goal by Ohio State because they had 12 players on the field. He was old, so was that, and this is 2009. Let’s move on.

Why is this a big game?

The Buckeyes want to dominate Saturday at home and want to run the table to another Big Ten Championship. This is the last tough game on the schedule before the November gauntlet at Penn State, then at home versus Iowa, with the finale in Ann Arbor.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin wants to stay undefeated and finally get their high ranking they have been waiting for all season. The motivation factor is easy after Pryor took the victory out of the Camp Randall air with a game winning drive last year, 20-17.

Bret Bielema is still looking for his first victory (0-2) over the sweater vest (3-3 versus Wisconsin) and will surely get the Badger seniors going early.

Game Data (some info courtesy of Bucknuts.com; click here for their full Wisconsin-Ohio State report):

Wisconsin (5-0) at #9 Ohio State (4-1)

• Wisconsin-Ohio State Date: Saturday, October 10th 2009.
• Wisconsin-Ohio State Kickoff Time: 3:30 ET
• Wisconsin-Ohio State TV: ABC (Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe) Coverage Map here
• Wisconsin-Ohio State Point Spread: Ohio State -16
• Wisconsin-Ohio State Spread Pick by KVB: Wisconsin +16
• Wisconsin-Ohio State Spread Pick by Jerod: Wisconsin +16
• Wisconsin-Ohio State Weather: Sunny 60 degrees some clouds (weather.com)
• StubHub: Ohio State-Wisconsin tickets as low as $85!

Dexter Larimore will not suit up on the Buckeye defensive line because of injury, but everyone is saying the depth is still there to dominate like Ohio State has all year. If everyone says that, then Wisconsin should end up running the ball well in at least the second half if it is close. But we are in October so the conditioning should be on pace for the line to play well regardless of how many plays the Badgers get.

The Buckeye offense has looked efficient since the USC game and after dominating Illinois and Indiana in Big Ten play they look to control the game and the clock again this weekend. But this is definitely a game where Ohio State’s offense cannot leave points on the field because of turnovers, missed field goals or red zone inefficiency.

Wisky’s quarterback Scott Tolzien is amazingly efficient with a 154.7 passer rating, which is best in the Big Ten (minimum 100 att) and his offense averages 35 points a game. If they have to lean on Tolzien’s arm, we could see Ohio State pin their ears back and disrupt the game he is used to playing.

Running back John Clay is the difference for the Badger offense. He leads the Big Ten in virtually all rushing categories so far this year (Rushes, Yards, Yards Per Game, TDs, and 100 yard games); so he can eat the clock and put scoring drives together, which could make it easier for Wisconsin to outscore the Bucks. This would make red zone efficiency and turnovers that much more important to Ohio State.

That said, it will be up to the front seven in Scarlett and Gray to make sure there is no rhythm for John Clay.

(Uh oh, I just rhymed…they already are in rhythm.)

I am very surprised Vegas put the two touchdown spread advantage for Ohio State, but that must be more a lack of confidence in the porous Wisconsin defense (24.6 points per game) than an abundance of confidence in the Ohio State offense (29.4 ppg).

But you can’t rule out Ohio State’s defense (11.8 ppg) as giving them such a large advantage. I would say the home field gives the Bucks a big advantage, but they’ve already lost at home. So maybe that will be their only blemish in Ohio Stadium. If I were a betting man, which JRod knows that I am, I would say Ohio State protects it’s house, but give the points to Wisconsin.

Ohio State-Wisconsin Prediction: Ohio State 30  | Wisconsin 23

Below is an example of mash-up highlight editing you can do on BigTenNetwork.com. It is pretty cool.

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* – Terrelle Pryor photo: Cleveland Plain Dealer File Photo

* – John Clay photo: Bryan Faust/wisconsin.scouts.com

Tags: Big Ten football, bret bielema, college, College Football, Jim Tressel, John Clay, Ohio State Buckeyes Football, Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin Badgers Football

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