Twins v Tigers: One Game Playoff Tickets, Preview, and Prediction

You may have noticed that we haven’t been paying as much attention to baseball here at MSF lately. My personal excuse for that is two-fold: first, I’m a White Sox fan and they fell out of the race early in September; second, football season started.

Site-wide, the excuse is simple: we need more baseball writers. (So contact us if you want to cover baseball! We’d love to have you.)

But that dearth of baseball coverage is about to change because October is here, which means it’s playoff time. And just like last season, the playoffs kick off with a one-game playoff tie-breaker to decide the AL Central.

Say what you will about the overall level play in the AL Central, but it routinely gives us the most hotly contested division race in all of Major League Baseball. 

Last year it was the White Sox and Twins duking it out for a 163rd game. This year, it’s the Tigers and Twins. Here is everything you need to know:

Twins-Tigers One-Game Playoff Preview

• Twins-Tigers Date: Tuesday, October 6th
• Twins-Tigers Time: 5:07 ET
• Twins-Tigers TV: TBS
• Twins-Tigers Location: The Metrodome in Minneapolis, Minnesota
• Twins-Tigers Odds: Twins -1.5
• Twins-Tigers Over-Under: 8.5
• Twins-Tigers Pitching Matchup: Rick Porcello (14-9) v Scott Baker (15-9)
• StubHub: Twins-Tigers One Game Playoff Tie-breaker Tickets as low as $56
• RazorGator: Twins-Tigers One Game Playoff Tie-breaker Tickets as low as $63
• TicketsNow: Twins-Tigers One Game Playoff Tie-breaker Tickets as low as $59

Rick Porcello v the Twins

Tigers rookie Rick Porcello won’t turn 22 until December of this year, yet the young phenom is taking the mound for the Tigers’ most important game of the season. It’s been an up-and-down rookie year for Porcello, who was terrible in April, fantastic in May, terrible again in June and July, and then very solid in 12 starts during August and September.

Overall for the season, Porcello is 14-9 with a 4.04 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 81 Ks, and 50 BBs over 30 starts and 165 innings. Detroit has done a very good job of not wearing Porcello down in his first big league season, part of the reason why he came down the stretch with a strong 5-2 record and an ERA right around 3.20 during the season’s final two months.

Porcello has pitched decently well overall against Minnesota. He is only 1-2 in four starts, but his ERA against the Twins is a very solid 3.09. The peripheral numbers, however, aren’t quite as good (1.41 WHIP, .299 BAA) and Porcello did not fare well in his two starts in the Metrodome: 0-2, 6.30 ERA.

The Twins that have given Porcello the most trouble are Jason Kubel (8-11) and Delmon Young (4-9). Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau both hit .250 or worse against Porcello, but both have homered. Joe Mauer went only 1-9 against Porcello this season. The Twins did not steal a base off Porcello this year.

Scott Baker v the Tigers

Scott Baker, always one of my personal favorites from a fantasy perspective because of his low WHIP and solid K/BB numbers, started off the season terribly. In three April starts, Baker had an ERA of 9.82 and went 0-3. Over the next five months, Baker alternated between 4.00+ and 3.00+ ERAs and finished the season with decent numbers: 15-9, 4.36 ERA, 1.19 WHIP. 

Baker’s Achilles’ heel is the longball: he gave up 27 on the year.

Unfortunately for Twins fans, Detroit is one of the teams that rocked Baker the hardest this year. In four starts against the Tigers, Baker went 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and a WHIP of 1.70. On a positive note though, he only gave up two home runs to the Tigers in 20 innings of work.

And Baker was pretty solid at home, with his 4.55 ERA not really jiving with lower peripheral numbers across the board (1.07 WHIP, .240 BAA, fewer home runs allowed). It looks like Baker was the victim of some bad luck in his home park.

The Tigers hitters that hit Baker the hardest this year were: Miguel Cabrera (4-11, HR); Magglio Ordonez (6-11); Marcus Thames (3-8, HR). Baker did do a nice job of keeping Curtis Granderson off the basepaths (1-11) and holding Brandon Inge in check (1-8).

Twins-Tigers Prediction

I can’t go in any direction but with the Twins.

I’ve long said that if I was not a White Sox fan, and could choose any other MLB team to root for, I’d choose Minnesota. I admire how they play, their scrappiness, and the fact that regardless of the circumstances they always seem to end up in the thick of the AL Central race.

The Twins are the team that comes into tomorrow’s game with the momentum and without either team having a significant edge in terms of starting pitching, I’m going with the team that does the best job of shutting the door at the end.

For that important job, the Twins get to call on Joe Nathan, perhaps one of the most under appreciated players in Major League Baseball over the last decade.

Here is the most important stat I could dig up about this game: in 50 lifetime appearances against Detroit, Joe Nathan is 2-1 with 30 saves, a 1.60 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .147 BAA…and he has never blown a save against the Tigers.

I’m convinced.

I don’t think the Twins win by more than a run, as the spread indicates, but who cares? Nathan shuts the door in the 9th and the Twins move onto the playoffs.

Twins-Tigers one-game playoff pick: Minnesota Twins 4 | Detroit Tigers 3

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* – Joe Nathan photo credit: Eric Miller, Reuters via MinnPost.com

Tags: AL Central, Detroit Tigers, joe nathan, minnesota twins, one-game playoff, pitching matchup, Rick Porcello, Scott Baker, twins-tigers, twins-tigers prediction, twins-tigers preview

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