Friday Morning Would…You Start Brandon Jacobs or Ahmad Bradshaw?

October 16, 2009 By 4 Comments

Two of the hottest names in fantasy football this week are teammates Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs of the New York Giants.

The reasons for the buzz around these two, however, are starkly different.

Jacobs has made news this week because of what appears to be growing frustration with his own subpar performances of late, and perhaps even jealousy at the success of his backfield mate. Bradshaw is generating buzz because he has rushed for 278 yards on only 37 carries over the past three weeks.

With the Giants facing their most stern defensive test of the season this Sunday — against the undefeated New Orleans Saints — which Giants running back will make the better Week 6 start: Brandon Jacobs or Ahmad Bradshaw?

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First, let’s take a quick look at what some “experts” think. Below are the position ranks for Jacobs and Bradshaw from various fantasy dudes at Yahoo and ESPN:

  • Andy Behrens: Brandon Jacobs 17th | Ahmad Bradshaw 21st
  • Matthew Berry: Brandon Jacobs 22nd | Ahmad Bradshaw 28th
  • Christopher Harris: Brandon Jacobs 13th | Ahmad Bradshaw 24th
  • Eric Karabell: Brandon Jacobs 8th | Ahmad Bradshaw 21st
  • Eric Kuselias: Brandon Jacobs 21st | Ahmad Bradshaw 23rd

As you can see, the consensus of this particular cross-section of people who get paid to research and write about fantasy football is that Brandon Jacobs is the better start this week than Ahmad Bradshaw.

Fair enough, but how to do we rectify the numbers below? We know that Bradshaw has been dominating Jacobs lately…right?

  • Brandon Jacobs last three games: 68 carries, 251 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec, 4 yards
  • Ahmad Bradshaw last three games: 37 carries, 278 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rec, 55 yards

Okay, so Bradshaw has clearly been better. However, a lot of the talk this week has made Bradshaw sound like the second coming of Brian Westbrook with Brandon Jacobs sounding like a Cedric-Benson-in-Chicago type.

Although Bradshaw has more yards and one more TD, there is a very important stat in Jacobs’ favor; and, it is one that should stay in his favor as the season moves forward: touches. Jacobs has 68, Bradshaw has 37.

My rule of thumb folks is that whenever I’m in doubt, or a question appears even, I let projected touches break the tie. Hence…

My advice: start Jacobs.

This is a question that a lot of owners face this week, because many were smart enough to handcuff Bradshaw to Jacobs, probably never thinking that a time would come where they might consider the part-timer over their supposed 1st round TD machine. But with Jacobs’ struggles to reach the end zone this year (only one TD in five games) and Bradshaw’s efficient yardage gobbling, the question is certainly a valid one.

But here are a few things to keep in mind as you make your decision:

  1. From 2007 through the first five games in 2009, Ahmad Bradshaw has scored 4 TDs, two of which came last week against awful Oakland. During that same time span, Brandon Jacobs has scored 20.
  2. For all the talk about Bradshaw being better for a PPR league, or more likely to catch passes, the numbers don’t back it up. Ahmad has 13 receptions from 2007 until now, with an average yard per catch of only 4.0. Jacobs has caught 44 passes and averaged 6.3 yards per catch. Don’t be fooled by that one 55-yard reception by Bradshaw last week. The numbers say it was an anomaly.
  3. Considering that the majority of Bradshaw’s value is tied up in his ability to generate respectable yardage totals on minimal carries, you’d want to start him against a defense that gives up a lot of rushing yards (i.e. Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Oakland…the Giants’ last three opponents). The Giants’ Week 6 opponent, the Saints, is 7th in the league giving up only 83 yards rushing per game. The safer bet against a D like this is to go with the guy more likely to get the goalline carries. Hello Jacobs.

Is Ahmad Bradshaw a good start this week? You could certainly do worse for your flex position. Is he a good start over Brandon Jacobs? I don’t believe so, and hopefully the evidence presented herein shows you why I think the way I do.

start or sit brandon jacobs or ahmad bradshaw week 6 giants-saints fantasy footballPart-time players can put up great numbers against the lower-tier teams on the schedule. That’s what Bradshaw has done so far this year. I still like him a lot as a flex guy and injury fill-in moving forward (and remember, I touted him as my RB sleeper before the season, so I expected this jump of production) but I don’t like him in a head-to-head matchup with Brandon Jacobs.

Jacobs owners, have patience and faith. You drafted him for 10+ TDs and 1,050 or so yards. He can still get there, but won’t do it sitting on your bench.Until Bradshaw becomes the guy more likely to get rushing TDs in New York, I can’t see how you justify starting him over Jacobs.

Right now, Jacobs gets more touches and more TD chances. That’s why everyone — including me — is telling you to start Jacobs, and why we are right.

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* – Ahmad Bradshaw photo credit: New York Daily News

* – Brandon Jacobs holding football photo credit: John O’Boyle / The Star-Ledger via NJ.com

* – Brandon Jacobs close-up yelling photo credit: Charles Wenzelberg via NY Post

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Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Sports, Morning Would, NFL Tagged With: ahmad bradshaw fantasy, brandon jacobs fantasy, brandon jacobs or ahmad bradshaw, fantasy football week 6, new orleans saints, new york giants, NFL, start or sit
About Jerod Morris

A proud graduate of Indiana University, Jerod Morris founded Midwest Sports Fans in August of 2008 and has been its Managing Editor every day since. Follow him on Twitter (@JerodMorris) for MSF updates, sports discussion, and a compelling daily assortment of funny and interesting links.
In addition to his work at MSF, Jerod hosts the fast-growing Indiana basketball postgame show The Assembly Call and provides regular music recommendations at IndieChristmas.com. He also helped develop the Synthesis Managed WordPress Hosting platform on which MSF and all of his other sites are run.

  • chip

    this is actually kinda helpful i feel like benching him to start j stewart but i think ill sit bradshaw instead

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/JerodMSF JerodMSF

    I would rank those three as follows for this week:

    1 – Jacobs
    2 – JStew
    3 – Bradshaw

    It's all about the TD probability.

  • skiballer

    by your reasoning that means jacobs should of at least had respectable games against the opponents he has played thus far..if he has had 1 touchdown against teams like oakland, tampa, redskins..etc..then why would you start him over bradshaw against a team that is 7th in the league in rushing defense? bradshaw can make more fantasy points in one play than jacobs could make all game..be smart here fellas, use bradshaw…

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/JerodMSF JerodMSF

    Ski,

    I respect your opinion, but Bradshaw has only scored in one game this year: against Oakland. The Giants have been playing wide open, easy games against winless teams for much of the season. Such games put less of a premium on a hard-nosed, grind-it-out back like Jacobs. Plus, there have been fewer goalline opportunities than there will be when Eli Manning isn't throwing the ball all over the field.

    It's all about sample size. If you want to trust what you've seen over the last few weeks and conclude that Bradshaw is now clearly the man over Jacobs, fine. And you might be right. I prefer to look at the bodies of work over the past three years, along with the fact that Jacobs is still getting the majority of the carries.

    The riskier move here is Bradshaw, not Jacobs. If you want to take that risk, be my guest. But I'll take the guy who gets more touches, gets the goalline carries, and who now has a chip on his shoulder.