2009 NLCS Preview: Phillies-Dodgers Analysis and TV Schedule

What can you say about this year’s L.A. Dodgers?

They dominated their division and most of their league all season, yet were overlooked, as many (wrongly) felt they played in a weak division. (See the NL Wild Card winner two of the past three seasons.) They then closed the regular campaign by scuffling during the season’s final fortnight and received intense criticism.

Most, including local writers, therefore picked Los Angeles to lose to the potent St. Louis Cardinals in the Division Series. Instead, now that they’ve swept a stellar NL central champ for the second year in a row, the Dodgers are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday night in a rematch of the 2008 NLCS.

[Editor's note: Before we get to the storylines, listen to AJ's appearance on the MSF podcast previewing the ALCS and NLCS. Below you will also find info regarding how the Phillies and Dodgers fared this season, plus the TV schedule, and probable pitching matchups.]

Midwest Sports Talk Podcast: ALCS & NLCS Preview

2009 NLCS: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

• Phillies-Dodgers season series: 4-3 Dodgers
• Regular season records: Phillies 93-69 | Dodgers 95-67
• Regular season run differential: Phillies +111 | Dodgers +169
• Official Websites: Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers
• StubHub: Dodgers-Phillies NLCS tickets (games in LA)
• StubHub: Dodgers-Phillies NLCS tickets (games in Philly)
• RazorGator: Phillies-Dodgers NLCS Tickets
• TickCo: Phillies-Dodgers NLCS tickets Save $10 on Orders of $150 or More at TickCo (code = Minus10)

Phillies-Dodgers NLCS TV Schedule and Pitching Matchups

Game	Matchup	Day	Date	Time (ET)	TV	Pitching Matchup
1	PHI @ LAD	Thu	10/15	8:07	TBS	Cole Hamels v Clayton Kershaw
2	PHI @ LAD	Fri	10/16	4:07	TBS	Pedro Martinez v Vicente Padilla
3	LAD @ PHI	Sun	10/18	8:07	TBS	TBD v Hiroki Kuroda
4	LAD @ PHI	Mon	10/19	8:07	TBS	TBD v Randy Wolf
5*	LAD @ PHI	Wed	10/21	8:07	TBS	TBD
6*	PHI @ LAD	Fri	10/23	8:07	TBS	TBD
7*	PHI @ LAD	Sat	10/24	8:07	TBS	TBD
* - if necessary

Phillies-Dodgers NLCS Preview and Analysis

Revenge is no doubt on their mind as Charlie Manuel’s crew upended L.A. on their way to the 2008 World Championship.

Unlike last season, the 2009 Dodgers have home field and momentum it seems, and no doubt their crowd is also ready. But the Phillies tied the Angels for most road wins in 2009, with 48 triumphs in 81 tries. They won both in Denver earlier this week to make it 50 of 83 this season.

The overused cliché is that “pitching wins championships.” And while, like defense in football and basketball, this is mostly true, hitting also helps.

The Dodgers and Phillies have BY FAR the best lineups in the NL, thereby aiding their cause through October last year and so far in 2009.

An upgrade over 2008, however, L.A. now has a staff full of lefty starters, and Philly’s power, for the most part, comes from the left-hand side in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, a resurgent Jimmy Rollins and newcomer Raul Ibanez.

Howard, he of the near 200 punch outs each season, is particularly woeful vs. lefties. On the other hand, Utley and Ibanez, apt to contact like most other Philly hitters, are equally effective hitters no matter the pitcher.

Negatively, the first four hitters in Philly’s lineup all hit under .200 against LA in 2009. Ryan Howard hit .107. Philadelphia, though they hit over .300 in the Colorado series, only hit .258 as a team this year, eighth in the NL.

That notwithstanding, there’s hardly a team in baseball with more power, hitting versatility, and depth than the squad from the City of Brotherly Love. The Phillies are also confident, as any defending champ would be.

The Dodgers power is equally distributed, with Matt Kemp and the mercurial Manny Ramirez from the right and Andre Ethier and James Loney on the left. (Ethier, unlike Loney, struggles mightily against left-handers, hitting under .200 for the season.) Switch-hitting sparkplug Rafael Furcal, catcher Russell Martin, and veteran Casey Blake aren’t slouches either.  But they’ll have to face mostly lefties too, especially the gutsy Cliff Lee, who was remarkable last round against the Rockies, throwing a complete game his first time out, and allowing just three hits after the game’s first two batters his second turn.

Removing the workhouse from Arkansas, who will rest up for Game Three Sunday, after 105 pitches with one out in the seventh Monday night, may have been Charlie Manuel’s only questionable decision this series, as overall, he was great. Only one intrepid reporter I read asked why Scott Eyre (four hits and a run in just one total inning pitched this week) and Ryan Madson (blown saves back to back nights) were used in such situations Monday evening. Winning and celebrating like children tend to dissipate the media’s ire.

Which leads us to more on the bullpens:

The Dodgers bullpen is so talented and deep that blessed Joe Torre can afford to be impatient and pull starters early, as he did with Randy Wolf against Saint Louis and very well may again. At game’s end, with big Jonathan Broxton and veteran George Sherrill appearing to be a lock-down stoppers for L.A., the biggest question in this series will again be the Philadelphia bullpen.

A Philly friend of mine mocked me Monday morning for my mid-September pronouncement that Brad Lidge was psychologically “done.” I may have been guilty of hyperbole then, as I’d just seen him look awful in blowing a save to Florida, but a shaky save in Game Three for Lidge – two walks, some hard hit balls — did little to quell the nerves of Philly Nation, I’d assume…until perhaps Game Four. Then again, with Manuel choosing to apply Bullpen by Committee in that game’s 9th inning,  it could be suggested he only trusted Lidge to throw sliders to get one out against a right-hander. Nonetheless, the man who was perfect in 2008 had to augment the confidence of Philadelphia significantly over 24 hours in the cold of Denver, as the team moves west to the warmth of Los Angeles.

I personally am not someone who puts a huge deal of stock in the “magical closer” come October. As a Yankee fan-friend noted via email to me late Monday night:

“Nathan, Papelbon, and now Street — proving my point that the “closer” is the most over-rated position in sports. Most Yankee fans would say “except for Mariano,” but not me — he’s blown it big time before and can do it again.”

For the starters, Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ were not good against Colorado, yet Philly, due to their immense power and clutch hitting, took three of four. (2008 World Series MVP Hamels will toe the rubber Thursday night.) If these two lefties, combined with the amazing Lee, are on, the Dodgers will be in some trouble. The “Wild Card” for the Phillies is now future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez, who starts Game Two.

L.A.’s starters are not necessarily as good on paper as Philadelphia’s, as who knows if NLCS Game Two starter Vicente Padilla and Game 4 starter Wolf can be consistent, or if Chad Billingsley is in shape to start or even be in the bullpen. However, playoff veteran John Garland and/or Hiroki Kuroda, back from injury, who beat the Phillies in last year’s playoffs, are also in the Dodgers’ deep starting pitching mix. Kuroda is slated to start Game 3 in Pennsylvania. Twenty-one year-old Texan Clayton Kershaw, the “X Factor,” who handcuffed the Cards last week, will throw in the opener.

There are many other noteworthy storylines and theories to ponder. Like in the AL, weather could also affect pitching rotations. (I’d love to link some of the analysis from ESPN.com, but since they’re the only website/network that charges to access material, this won’t occur. You can read some of Page 2’s lunacy for free. Let me know if you compehend the gobbledygook, because I do not.)

With the first “Freeway Series” now a distinct possibility, the Dodgers seem to exude confidence, especially in a year where revenge seems to be a popular theme across both leagues. The Phils have more starpower, but Los Angeles has a better relief corps and, like the Angels, seems to be on an unstoppable role.

Either way, like the ALCS, this series should be “epic,” and that’s good for baseball.

Separate tidbits:

I love baseball, often blindly so, but despite playoff ratings being way up this October, I need to make some recommendations/gripes for 2009:

1. The postseason umpiring, for a rare time, has been atrocious, to put it mildly.

I need not enumerate all the instances, but anyone watching has seen it. I don’t recall ever seeing so many blatantly poor calls, and many other very questionable ones — not to mention inconsistent strike zones aplenty. Many of us are just now realizing that Major League Baseball does NOT utilize a merit system for selecting playoff umpires, but rather a generic rotation.

That might need to change.

Implementing replay for fair and foul ball calls — not balls/strikes, nor outs at bases — is a decent start after a blown call basically cost Minnesota a game in New York Friday night. That way you won’t have the league’s worst umpire, CB Bucknor, calling crucial games, with fans already bracing for his ineptness.

2. The playoff format needs amending.  No, not shortening the postseason due to normal October weather patterns, but rather, the first round must be best of seven, even if that means shortening the regular season back to 154 games. These three game sweeps/short series are ludicrous and robs fans of seeing “the best” teams for more than an extremely short period. Ask the Athletics of 2000-2003, Twins of 2003-2004, 2006 and 2009, Angels of 2004 and 2007-2008, Cubs of 2007-2008, Yanks of 2002 and 2005-2007, the Red Sox of 2005 and 2009 or the Cardinals of 2009.

3. These preset long layoffs between series are annoying. Start the League Championship Series and World Series within 48 hours of the matchup being set, as the long layoffs really hurt teams’ momentum. See the Rockies of 2007 for the best example, but there are many others recently. Fans who can afford tickets can adjust their plans. It also wastes gas — see Anaheim and Philly this year doing three cross-country flights this past week. I think Al Gore would agree too.

Tags: MLB, mlb playofs, nlcs, nlcs tickets, phillies-dodgers, phillies-dodgers nlcs, phillies-dodgers pitching matchups, phillies-dodgers schedule, phillies-dodgers tickets

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