Just a couple of weeks ago it appeared like a realistic possibility that Michael Crabtree could sit out the entire 2009 seasons and re-enter the 2010 draft in one of the most ill-advised decisions ever.
Now, as we head into Week 7, Michael Crabtree is a starting WR in the NFL.
Amazing how quickly things change, huh?
Crabtree got into camp just as the 49ers were entering their bye week and has had two weeks to acclimate himself to the offense, to his teammates, and to life in the NFL. No-nonsense coach Mike Singletary apparently believes that Crabtree has acclimated himself quite well, considering he has reportedly pegged Crabtree to start over Josh Morgan this Sunday when the 49ers play Houston.
Now that Singletary has made his decision, fantasy football owners have their own decision to make: start or sit Michael Crabtree in Week 7?
The answer is an easy one for me: sit him. And there are a number of reasons why.
First, Crabtree is a rookie WR. Even highly talented, highly drafted rookie WRs with the benefit of a full training camp and six games under their belt are risky plays in Week 7 of their rookie year. In most cases with rookie WRs, there is a high degree of volatility from week to week.
Crabtree is certainly highly talented and was highly drafted, but he’s had only two weeks of practice and certainly can only know a fraction of the San Francisco offense. This limits his potential for a breakout performance in his debut.
Second, San Francisco isn’t a good passing team anyway. If this was the Colts or the Cardinals, and we knew the ball would be in the air 35-40 times, maybe you consider Crabtree. But this is the 49ers, a team that ranks 28th in the league with only 160.8 passing yards per game. QB Shaun Hill has thrown only five TD passes this year and only one of those went to a WR (Josh Morgan).
In all, San Francisco’s top two wideouts have caught only 26 balls on the season for less than 400 yards. That’s not a very big pie for Crabtree to attempt to get a piece of in his first week. Obviosuly the 49ers hope that Crabtree will make their offense more dynamic, but do you really think it will happen in his first week?
The third reason why you want to sit Michael Crabtree this week is that Frank Gore is back. Gore is the 49ers workhorse and should get the bulk of the offensive touches on Sunday. This is a run-first, run-second team and Crabtree will be nothing more than a complement to a ball control, smash-mouth gameplan.
Now, if you have Crabtree and your lineup is decimated with bye weeks and injuries, there are reasons for guarded optimism about Crabtree’s potential in Week 7.
Houston is a high scoring team, which means that San Francisco will probably have to get into the mid-20s to win the game; this could necessitate more passing than usual. If S.F. does decide to pass more, the Texans are only 19th in the league against the pass, giving up 226.8 yards passing per game and 6 TDs.
It’s not much, but starting Crabtree this Sunday if you’re in a bind probably may not be a complete lost cause.
Regardless, while I think Crabtree could have some value in the right matchups as we move forward, don’t blindly throw him out there this week if you have other proven options. I have a feeling that Mike Singletary won’t mind Crabtree having a rude awakening in his first NFL start, knowing that it might be an immediate step back that could help the WR take a few helpful steps forward a little quicker in 2009.
And a rude awakening is what I expect for Crabtree this week.
Michael Crabtree Week 7 projection: 2 rec, 27 yards, 0 TDs
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* – Michael Crabtree photo credit: Bay Area Sports Guy
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