Fantasy Quick Hit: Ranking Slaton, Mendenhall, Harrison, Moreno, and Coffee for Week 5

While preparing to answer another wave of questions in the comment section of my Week 5 start em, sit em post, the lightbulb of inspiration flickered above my head.

I spend so much time answering similar questions about similar players, that I might as well consolidate some of those answers into posts. 

Don’t worry, I’ll still answer your comments directly. But for the myriad people who are interested in Steve Slaton, Rashard Mendenhall, Jerome Harrison, Knowshon Moreno, and Glenn Coffee in Week 5 — many of whom seem to be faced with the task of choosing between two or three of them for starting spots — this post should help.

Here are my quick hit Week 5 rankings for these five players this week, plus some explanation.

1 – Steve Slaton — @ Arizona (#6 vs run, 1 TD allowed in ‘09) — 99% owned

Yes, I know his matchup appears to be the toughest, but keep this in mind: Arizona was a solid but not spectacular 16th against the run in 2008. So far this year, they jumped out early on Jacksonville, forcing the Jags to abandon the run, and also faced an Indianapolis team that has struggled to find any type of consistency with its ground attack.

So I don’t totally trust that #6 ranking.

I also know that some people are skittish about Slaton because of his slower-than-expected start to the year. But over his last two games, Slaton has carried the ball 33 times for 141 yards (4.27 average), caught five passes for 61 yards, and scored two TDs. His team has a very good offense and I expect this game to become a shootout, which should lead to plenty of scoring and yardage chances for Slaton.

Overall, I feel there is less risk in starting Slaton than anyone else. I would not be surprised to see him have fewer points than Harrison or Mendenhall, but Slaton is the more proven commodity. If you follow my fantasy advice, you have probably realized than when things appear to me to be close to equal, I always trust and start the guy with the more proven track record.

2 – Jerome Harrison — @ Buffalo (#27 vs run, 7 TDs allowed) — 73% owned

Surprised to see Jerome this high? Don’t be. He’s going to be a very good fantasy player for the rest of this year…which I seem to remember someone predicting before the season started…and is a solid start against a weak defense this week in particular.

What you saw from Jerome last week against Cincinnati (minus the 29 carries) is similar to what I think we’ll see for the majority of games this season even when Jamal Lewis returns to health: 17-22 carries, 4.0-5.0 yard average, 4-6 receptions, 125-150 total yards per game. Obviously Jerome needs to start getting into the end zone, but I think he can get 3-4 scores as the season goes along.

Remember, unlike Jamal Lewis, Harrison actually has big play ability.  Last year against these same Bills on Monday Night Football, Jerome touched the ball four times — FOUR F’ING TIMES!!! — yet produced 101 yards and a touchdown (with a 72-yard TD run included). You can’t predict such big plays, although Buffalo’s run defense has been sieve-like this season, but the point is that Harrison is capable of making them and this will keep him on the field all season for Cleveland.

Harrison is below Slaton because he’s less proven and on a much worse offense, but ahead of Mendenhall because no one is threatening Jerome’s carries right now and he has a more proven, consistent track record.

3 – Rashard Mendenhall — @ Detroit (#20 vs run, 4 TDs allowed) — 95% owned

The reigning AFC Player of the Week finally had his coming out party with 160+ yards and 2 TDs last week. He is all the rage in fantasy right now, and is the kind of player who could go from late round pick to 1st round value as the season moves along.

Still, I’m skeptical.

That’s why, despite last week and his plum matchup this week, I have Mendenhall rated third on this list. There is a reason why this guy was deactivated in Week 3 — deactivated folks — and has struggled to get consistent playing time. One great game against a very suspect defense is not enough to convince me.

He probably has the most upside of any back on this list this week, but also the most risk. Would you really be shocked if Mendenahll ended up with four or five carries and 15-20 yards and that’s it?  I wouldn’t.  But I also wouldn’t be shocked to see him explode again.

Lots of risk/reward here. If you’re desperate for a win and sitting at 1-3, play Mendenhall.  What have you got to lose? If your team is good and you have other solid options, think about playing them. The onus is on Mendenhall to prove that last week was not a fluke.  If he does it again, start gaining confidence.

4 – Knowshon Moreno — vs New England (11th vs run, 1 TD allowed) — 95% owned

I love Moreno and especially love him now that Correll Buckhalter is dinged up, which will obviously give Knowshon more carries. I am not, however, a big fan of his matchup this week. That is why I have Moreno below Mendenhall. I trust Moreno more (4.3+ yards per carry, at least 65 yards, for three straight weeks) but think the going could be a little tougher for Denver’s offense this week. 

I expect the Texans-Cardinals, Bills-Browns, and Steelers-Lions games to be higher scoring and more fantasy friendly than the Broncos-Patriots matchup, which could end up being a slugfest. I would still start Moreno with confidence this week as an RB#2, just below the three guys above him on this list.

5 – Glen Coffee — vs Atlanta (25th vs run, 2 TDs allowed) — 90% owned

A lot has been expected of Glen Coffee as Frank Gore’s replacement because of the 49ers commitment to the run, Coffee’s explosive preseason success, and some pretty nice matchups (Rams, Falcons). However, over the last two weeks, Coffee has yet to really establish himself. He has carried 49 times for 128 yards and has yet to score.

We know that the opportunities will be there for Coffee because Mike Singletary will run and run and run some more. We also know that Altanta will give up some yards. Still, I think you have to be cautious with Coffee at this point because his value right now is wrapped up in potential, with nary a solid fantasy week to point to in his track record.

I still like him, and will happily start him as a flex in a couple of leagues, but I would not think twice about sitting him if any of the above four players were my options.

And, by the way, when a lot of people were asking me “Slaton or Coffee?” last week, I nailed the answer to that one despite what looked like a nice matchup advantage for Coffee.

Always remember folks: trusting a player’s track record and making choices on a week-to-week basis based on what players have done as opposed to what they could do, usually results in more sound long-term decision making and a team that will be competitive week in, week out.

Sure, you’ll be wrong in isolated cases, but you will will end up being right far more often.

Remember to check out my fantasy football spot on JOCK 98.7 FM tomorrow around 10:30 am, as well as the first episode of the Fantasy Flash Podcast, hosted by yours truly (player below). And keep those questions coming. I love answering them, and it actually helps me research for posts ideas and my own teams!

Have a great Thursday everyone.

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