Carson Palmer Ankle Injury Update, Week 1 Status, and Fantasy Outlook

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Carson Palmer Injury Update, Status, Fantasy Outlook and ProjectionOne of the biggest questions this preseason, in both real and fantasy NFL circles, has been the health of Bengals QB Carson Palmer. His injury last year presaged a terrible season for the Bengals in which pretty much everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

But hopes in Cincy have been raised this year thanks to Palmer’s return, the reemergence of Chad Ochocinco as a player (apparently) focused on winning again, and an emerging defense that is better than it is given credit for being.

Of course, they do have Cedric Benson…but I just said that hopes had been raised, not that the Bengals are perfect.

Either way, the entire house of cards rests on the injured ankle of Carson Palmer, which has prevented the Aikman-like QB from playing in the Bengals’ last two preseason games. From the looks of it, via PFT, the AP, and Mr. Ochocinco himself, Palmer is “fine” and should be ready to go for the season opener on September 13th.

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In fact, he may even play in the Bengals’ fourth preseason game this Thursday. 

From the AP report updating Carson Palmer’s injury status:

Palmer threw to receivers during the first 30 minutes of practice Monday, thefirst time he’s done that in nearly three weeks. The quarterback dropped back after taking snaps and moved around without problem on his sprained left ankle.

The only news that could possibly be better for Cincinnati sports fans would be the firing of Dusty Baker. But, actually, even that would not trump the healthy return of Carson Palmer to the football field this year.

So let’s assume for a moment that Palmer is healthy and ready to go on September 13th. How do you value this guy in fantasy drafts and/or trade talks?

As recently as last season (despite a less than stellar 2007, based on his own standards), Palmer was one of the top-5 QBs in fantasy. He appeared poised to enjoy a long, continuous tenure among Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees as those year-in, year-out consistently strong QBs that you can build fantasy winners around.

A quick look at Carson Palmer’s stats from 2005 and 2006 manifests this greatness:

 

  • 2005: 101.1 rating; 3,836 yards; 32 TDs; 12 INTs
  • 2006: 93.9 rating; 4,035 yards; 28 TDs; 13 INTs

 

2007 and 2008, however, were not nearly as productive:

 

  • 2007: 86.7 rating; 4,131 yards; 26 TDs; 20 INTs
  • 2008: 69.0 rating; 731 yards; 3 TDs; 4 INTs

 

As you can see, even before getting hurt last year Palmer was not playing to his usual level. Part of that had to do with a complete lack of a running game, as well as the fact that Chad Ochocinco seemed determined to be as big a pain in the ass as he possibly could.

So with Cedric Benson no doubt poised to continue churning out 2-3 yard stumbles where 5-10 yard gains are possible, and TJ Houshmandzadeh now catching passes from Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle, why should there be optimism that the ’05-’06 Palmer will reemerge in 2009?

Honestly, there probably should not be quite that level of optimism, but still some optimism nonetheless.

Carson Palmer Injury Update, Status, Fantasy Outlook and ProjectionChad Ochocinco has brought a much better attitude to camp, at least it seems. In addition, TJ has been replaced by the steady Laveraneus Coles who, while no longer the burner he once was, is still a productive WR. And the surprise of Bengals camp has reportedly been a rejuvenated Chris Henry, who has worlds of talent but has never particularly acted like he possessed a brain. If he truly has matured, that’s still a pretty lethal WR trio for Palmer to air it with.

But without the steady Rudi Johnson providing consistent backfield production any longer, the Bengals will still be somewhat one-dimensional, which will obviously make them easier to defend and probably keep Palmer’s INT totals a little bit higher. His yardage will probably stay high, because the Bengals should throw a lot, but I don’t see quite the same TD:INT ratio that we saw during his immaculate 2005 campaign.

My Carson Palmer projections for 2009 look something like this:

 

  • QB rating: 92-97
  • Passing yards: 4,000-4,200
  • Passing TDs: 27-28
  • INTs: 17-19
  • Rushing: Umm, none…as usual.

 

I would take the following QBs for sure before Palmer in a draft: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers. After that, I’d rate Palmer right there with Peyton Manning (who is a great QB and consistent but overrated this year for fantasy purposes people!!!), Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Ryan.

He is certainly worthy of starting, and you’re in a great position if you can get him as a backup, but I would expect him to be below the first tier. Draft him expecting 2008-level production, and then be pleasantly surprised if and when he surpasses it. 

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* – Carson Palmer throwing photo credit: Art Monk Football League



Video of Brett Favre’s Chop Block on Eugene Wilson Proves Idiocy of Brad Childress

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Not only was I shocked earlier this morning to hear that Jose Contreras and Jim Thome were traded by the White Sox, but I was shocked to see the video below on SportsCenter this morning.

During last night’s Vikings-Texans preseason game, Brett Favre – the 40 year old QB who claims to have a lingering arm injury and a potentially broken rib – was split out wide and throwing blocks when the Vikings went to their Wildcat formation.

Not only was Favre’s chop block totally wrong, but the decision to even have him in that position is totally wrong. I realize that this is probably a refrain that Vikings fans are sick of hearing, but what the hell is Brad Childress thinking?

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The video of Favre’s chop block on Eugene Wilson is below, courtesy of the good folks at Black Sports Online.

Brett Favre Dirty Illegal Crackback Block on Eugene Wilson Texans vs. Vikings from BlackSportsOnline on Vimeo.

Look, no one thinks that Brett Favre is a dirty player, but he has definitely never been accused of over-thinking on the football field. His role on this play is to block and help open up the left side of Percy Harvin. I am sure it was just instinct that led him to dive low in an effort to – at least in his own mind – protect himself. Without question, I think he’d do it differently if he could.

Video of Brett Favre chop block on Eugene Wilson proves idiocy of Vikings head coach Brad ChildressFor that reason, I blame Chilly far more than I blame Brett. Favre is a QB, not a blocker.  And I realize the Vikings want to incorporate some Wildcat this year with the dynamic Percy Harvin on the roster, but why not do it with Brett Favre on the sideline? Or, at worst, tell him to run out wide and then stay as far the hell away from any defenders as possible.

If you want to do a play like this in a key situation in the regular season, and Favre wants to go all out to throw a block, fine. (Obviously he needs to use better, less dangerous technique next time.) But putting Favre in that position in the preseason is at best negligence, and at worst a sign of complete idiocy on the part of Brad Childress and the Vikings coaching staff.

I know that the Vikings offense, led by Adrian Peterson and steady play from Favre, looked good last night. But if the Vikings coaches continue to make idiotic decisions like they did last night, it will not spell success for the Vikes in 2009.

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* – Brad Childress photo credit: VikingsGab



An Appreciative Thank You and Goodbye to Jose Contreras and Jim Thome

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White Sox trade Jim Thome, Jose Contreras to Dodgers, RockiesWow.

I was a little out of the loop last night, leaving my computer at the office for the first time in who knows how long and then going to see a movie with the girlfriend. Every now and then it’s good to get away from sports and blogging for a night. Plus, I was dreading the results of the White Sox first game in Minnesota and didn’t want to be put in a bad mood.

Of course, as a proud iPhone owner and MLB At Bat app user, I could not escape finding out about the Sox 4-1 loss to Minnesota — our 9th loss in 11 games — but, and this is the most disheartening part, it didn’t really disappoint me too much because I was expecting it.

What I just saw this morning upon arriving at the office, however, I did not expect. I guess I probably should have.

The White Sox have traded veterans Jim Thome and Jose Contreras to the NL West. Thome goes to the Dodgers and Contreras to Rockies. In return for the players and “cash considerations” (whatever that means), the White Sox received infielder Justin Fuller from the Dodgers and pitcher Brandon Hynick from the Rockies.

Clearly both of these moves were salary dumps by Ken Williams and the first steps in piecing together the 2010 White Sox.

Fuller is a 26-year old “prospect” still mired in A ball. Brandon Hynick, on the other hand, does seem to have a bit of potential. A 24-year old righty, Hynick has had a solid season at AAA: 3.83 ERA and 92/48 K/BB ratio. According to RotoWorld, Hynick could be an effective reliever at the major league level by next year.

But this post isn’t about analyzing two basically nondescript minor leaguers who may or may not ever contribute to the success of White Sox baseball. This post is about saying goodbye to two White Sox veterans who contributed to some really good times during their South Side tenures.

First, Jim Thome.

White Sox trade Jim Thome, Jose Contreras to Dodgers, RockiesI was wholeheartedly against the Thome acquisition when it happened. Still hating him from his days in Cleveland, I just could not wrap my mind around rooting for a guy that for so long had been a sworn enemy. Plus, after we tanked in the second half of 2006, and then sucked beyond belief in 2007, I began to believe that by signing Thome and letting Aaron Rowand go the White Sox had somehow cursed themselves.

But finally, late last season, after his home run proved to be the difference in the one-game playoff against the Twins, I fully embraced Thome. I figured a trip to the playoffs was enough to erase whatever curse might have existed.

But like everyone in the White Sox lineup, Thome has struggled in 2009. His home run totals have gone as follows during the previous three seasons: 42-35-34. In this, his fourth season with the White Sox, Thome had only hit 23 before being traded to go along with a .252 average and a .375 OBP that would be one of the lowest of his career.

At 38, Jim Thome clearly was not a part of the White Sox long-term future. With Ken Williams adding so much salary acquiring Alex Rios and Jake Peavy, the writing had been on the wall that Thome would not be a South Sider for long.

And now he is not, heading to the Dodgers to most likely be in the playoffs and contribute as a pinch hitter. Best of luck Jim. I didn’t like you when you arrived in Chicago, but you won me over with your attitude, leadership, and clutch hitting. I’m sure the Dodgers will benefit from your presence.

It is much harder to say goodbye to Jose Contreras.

I know, Contreras has basically been awful this season except for one short stretch after he went to the minors. His numbers on the year: 5-13, 5.42 ERA, 1,448 WHIP. Terrible, awful, putrid…whatever negative adjective you want to put on it, go ahead.

White Sox trade Jim Thome, Jose Contreras to Dodgers, RockiesBut this is the season I will always remember and appreciate Jose Contreras for: 15-7, 3.61 ERA, 1.231 WHIP in the regular season. 3-1, 33 innings pitched over four sterling starts during the playoffs.

The season, of course, was 2005, when Contreras teamed with Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, El Duque Hernandez, and Jon Garland (who was also traded to the Dodgers last night) to produce perhaps the greatest team playoff starting pitching performance in the history of Major League Baseball.

Maybe I’m overhyping it, but that’s certainly what it felt like.

And isn’t it telling that three of the pitchers from that staff — Garcia, Garland, and Contreras — are past their prime and battling through tough years and injuries, yet they were acquired by contenders for the stretch run? That’s how indelible the memories are of their tremendous performances when it mattered most.

Look, I don’t know exactly why I’ve always like Jose Contreras so much. For his White Sox career he had a 4.66 ERA and went 55-56. And while most people think he “blossomed” once he got out of New York — and yes, his two best full seasons were in Chicago (2005, 2006), — his ERA was 4.64 as a Yankee and was 4.66 with the Sox. Essentially, Jose was what he was: a mediocre major league starting pitcher.

But throughout 2005 and through the first half of 2006 (during which time he was one of the best pitchers in the game before his season fell apart) I just developed a really strong belief that Contreras would always come up big in big spots. I don’t have stats to cite, or a whole lot of anecdotal evidence other than the obvious from the 2005 playoffs, all I know is this: if it wasn’t Buehrle on the hill in a big spot, I wanted Contreras there.

I appreciated his backstory and all that he went through to pitch in the Majors. I appreciated how quickly he seemed to warm to Chicago after being traded from New York. I appreciated the steely determination in his eyes when he took the hill. I appreciated the fact that he always looked like his only thought was putting his team on his back and carrying them through that night.

And I think his teammates and his manager saw the same thing.

That’s why Jose could go 10-17 with a 5.57 ERA in 2007 and still be in the rotation in 2008. And that’s why, after surprising everyone by coming back this Spring Training from a terrible 2008 Achilles injury, Ozzie Guillen did not hesitate to put him in the rotation. 

The one word I would use to describe Jose Contreras is: resilient. And for a time in 2009, it looked like his resiliency — and Ozzie’s faith in him — would pay dividends.

Jose had a great stretch in the middle of the season after being sent to the minors, but just couldn’t hold onto it. It certainly wasn’t for lack of effort, but perhaps more a lack of trust in his own abilities. Jose didn’t trust his fastball and tried to get everyone out with his breaking stuff. It led to walks, way too many hits, and killer big innings that doomed Jose and the White Sox.

And, in the end, it led to Jose Contreras’ departure from Chicago and our departure from the playoff race.

What are we losing statistically? I don’t really know. It pains me to say this, but not a whole lot.  A 5.42 ERA should not be difficult to replace. And our young pitchers, Gavin Floyd and John Danks, have had time to learn from Jose and soak in the lessons from Contreras’ incredible and unique career in baseball.

So perhaps the timing is perfect for Jose to move on. Ever since the second half of 2006, Jose Contreras has been a shell of the pitcher that he was in 2005. But for that one season, and even for half of the next, Jose Contreras was as good a pitcher as the South Side has seen in many years. And say what you will about his struggles over the last three years, but one thing is for certain: there was one time during his White Sox tenure that the team, the fans, and the city needed him more than any other — the playoffs in 2005 — and he stepped up huge.

I’ve never forgotten that, and neither probably have Ozzie and Jose’s veteran teammates. And maybe that’s part of the problem. The 2005 Jose Contreras just isn’t there anymore, no matter how much we’ve all wanted to see it and how many chances he’s been given to recapture that brilliance. In brief flashes he is the same pitcher, but not consistently, and certainly the flashes are fewer and further between.

White Sox trade Jim Thome, Jose Contreras to Dodgers, RockiesHe was a spry 33 in 2005 (purportedly) and is now 37 coming off an injury. I still see the same look of determination in him, the same will to win that he’s always had, but Jose’s mound presence and pitching no longer are defined by the same level of confidence he once had. At least not to me.

So maybe it would have been better for the White Sox to have just cut ties with Jose once his season went south in 2006. Had they, the only memory White Sox fans would have of Jose Contreras would be 2005. But that’s not how it happened, and to all White Sox fans — many of whom, like myself, are rightly frustrated with Jose’s recent performances — I will just say this: remember Jose for what he was in 2005, what he helped deliver to the White Sox and the city of Chicago, and for the leadership and attitude he provided even during his most egregious struggles.

Jose Contreras will always be a positive part of White Sox history. The time has come for him to move on and ply his trade elsewhere, but I will always remember him fondly. And the Rockies just became my favorite NL team for the rest of 2009.

As to the overall mindset that created the impetus for these two moves, I’m on board.

Ken Williams did everything he could to solidify the pitching staff and lineup for the stretch run this year. But a 2-9 record with the division lead right there for the taking just is not going to get it done. And with the Peavy and Rios acquisitions clearly meant for the future as much as they were meant for this year, Ken couldn’t just sit on his hands while the team pissed away a golden opportunity to defend its division title.

It’s sad to see two tremendous veterans go, and ever sadder to understand the circumstances for why they are leaving — the team’s failure — but I certainly understand it.

Best of luck to Jim Thome and Jose Contreras (and Jon Garland) in their new digs. Their roles will no doubt be different, but at least they will be playing for something. Unfortunately, after the last two weeks, that’s more than can be said about the teammates they leave behind.

Scott Merkin has a great post at his official MLB.com blog, Being Ozzie Guillen, about Jim and Jose entitled Thome, Contreras = Pure Class. I agree wholeheartedly.

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* – Jose Contreras and Jim Thome photo credit: by Charles Rex Arbogast – AP via South Side Sox

* – Jose Contreras ALCS photo credit: Getty Images via MLB.com

* – Jose Contreras hat tip photo credit: Nam Y. Hu (AP) via Camden Chat