Fantasy Football: Which Ohio WR Will Be Better in 2009 – Chad Ochocino or Braylon Edwards

2009 Fantasy Football Projections, Analysis: Chad Ochocinco, Braylon Edwards2008 was a terrible year for both Chad Johnson (err…Ochocinco) and Braylon Edwards. Both were coming off of career years in 2007 — Ochocinco set a career high with 1,440 yards while Edwards set career highs in everything while scoring 16 TDs — with great feats expected headed into last year. However, the two barely eclipsed 100 combined catches in 2008.

Unquestionably, many fantasy owners saw their teams struggle because of high drafts picks wasted on these two receivers.

As we head into 2009, a lot of fantasy owners and prognosticators are struggling with how to value Ochocino and Edwards in their drafts. Will they return to #1 WR status? Are they merely second-rate #2 or #3 WRs like they showed last year? Something in between?

And, most importantly, if you are ready to pick a WR and these two are left, who should you pluck off the draft board first?

It’s an intriguing question: Ochocino or Edwards? Certainly we all expect each to be better in 2009. But by how much and which player improves more? From my perspective — even though I’m a Browns fan — I would rather have Ochocino. In this post, I will list out a few of the reasons why.

1 – The QB position is crystal clear in Cincinnati

Wide receivers are volatile from year to year and week to week because their production is predicated in large part on the success of the guy taking snaps. Last year, Ochocino and the rest of the Cincy WRs were severely hampered by an injury to Carson Palmer that left the overmatched Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. This year, Carson Palmer is back and will be counting on Ochocino as his favorite and most experienced target.

2009 Fantasy Football Projections, Analysis: Chad Ochocinco, Braylon Edwards

It should be noted that Palmer is still dealing with some injury issues this offseason, and his sprained left ankle might keep him out of the team’s next preseason game. But the team expects Palmer to be 100% by opening day, and the positive is that the injury is not arm-related. Obviously if Palmer goes down again, and J.T. O’Sullivan becomes the starter, this is no longer an advantage for Ochocino.

In Cleveland, the QB situation is still muddy. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson entered the preseason entrenched in an all-out battle for the starting gig with no clear cut favorite. After two preseason battles (one won by Quinn, the other by Anderson) there still is no clarity.

Uncertainly at the QB position is never an auspicious sign for a WR, yet this is what Edwards has to deal with. I believe his value increases if Derek Anderson is the QB, as the deep ball will be more prevalent in the Browns’ offense, but the conventional wisdom has been that Quinn will end up getting the starting job. The whole thing gives me the headache, so who the hell knows. All it really means is that Edwards inherently carries more risk because of the QB flux in Cleveland.

2 – Last year was clearly an anomaly for Chad Ochocino, no necessarily so for Braylon Edwards

Look at Chad Ochocino’s career stats. Before last season, he had five straight seasons of 87+ catches and 1,270+ yards, plus 7+ touchdowns. His 2009 stats clearly jump on the page as the outlier. In looking at Braylon Edwards’ career stats however, his superb 2007 season is the one that jumps off the page as the outlier. 

Now, to be fair, Edwards barely had a fighting chance last year with the Browns’ offense proving to be absolutely abysmal. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn were shuffled back and forth as the starter, and there was no other consistent receiving threat to help draw coverage away from Edwards. But anyone who watched the Browns last year also knows that Edwards still should have had 65-70 catches (he had 55) and 1,000+ yards (he had 873) if he could just catch passes that hit him in the hands. Leading the league in drops — by a lot — is not the mark of a true #1 WR. Edwards now has an 80-catch, 16-TD season sandwiched in between two seasons in which he averaged 58 catches and 4.5 TDs.

2009 Fantasy Football Projections, Analysis: Chad Ochocinco, Braylon EdwardsSo which player is the real Braylon Edwards? We know that he is extremely talented, and capable of making incredible plays. He just has yet to show this ability consistently, which makes him risky from a fantasy perspective.

We know who the real Ochocinco is based on his consistent track record — unless he has simply lost a step and is on the downside of his career, which I do not believe — but the statistical evidence is less clear with Edwards. Though Braylon has youth on his side, he has also been a #3 fantasy receiver for two seasons and a #1 receiver for one. That’s not a good ratio when the alternative is a guy with a full half decade of evidence that proves his ability to anchor a receiving corps.

3 – Ochocinco has more proven help around him to prevent consistent double-coverage

The Bengals lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the offseason, but brought in Laveraneus Coles to replace him. And though Coles at 32 is not the same player he once was, he still caught 70 balls and 7 TDs last year with an aging and injured Brett Favre as his QB. The Bengals also have a rejuvenated and possibly more mature Chris Henry (sleeper alert!  Seriously…) on the outside to provide a deep threat opposite Ochocinco. Plus, the Bengals running game sucks (Cedric Benson?  Please.) and their defense is unproven, meaning there will probably be a lot of throwing. With a solid three WR attack, Ochocino should find plenty of openings.

As for the Browns, they attempted a more long-term solution to their passing attack woes this offseason. Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicius are gone and Donte Stallworth is suspended, and in their place the Browns drafted two rookies (Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoai) in the second round and hope that the combo of Steve Heiden-Martin Rucker can provide a solid tight end duo. They also brought in Mike Furrey as a sure-handed slot receiver. While I love the long-term potential of the rookies, and think the Heiden-Rucker combo is underrated, there is no proven reason yet for teams not to double cover Edwards and make someone else prove they can produce consistently. Remember, when Edwards went nuts in 2007, Kellen Winslow was healthy all year and Joe Jurevecius provided a sure-handed option on the other side.

And seriously, If Braylon can barely catch passes when he’s wide open, how are we to expect a significant rebound when he’ll probably be pretty heavily covered again all year in 2009?

Plus, with Jerome Harrison and James Davis showing great potential alongside the aging Jamal Lewis, the Browns will be more run-oriented than the Bengals. I would think Ochocino would see more targets than Edwards as a result, obviously making his value higher.

In the end, I believe 2009 will be much better for both Chad Ochocino and for Braylon Edwards than 2008 proved to be. As for who will be better, other than his advancing age (Ochocinco will be 31 when the season starts, while Edwards will be 26) there is no reason not to like Ochocinco more for 2009. I think we will see numbers much closer to his averages from 2003-2007 (90-95 catches, 1,350-1,400 yards, 8-9 TDs) while Edwards will be somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 seasons (70-75 catches, 1,000-1,100 yards, 7-9 TDs).

Draft Chad Ochocino as a low-end #1 WR and feel good about it so long as Carson Palmer stays upright. Draft Braylon Edwards as a #2 WR and hope for — but don’t expect — a surprising resurgence to #1 status. If you are like me, and your goal is to minimize risk early, Chad Ochocino is the way to go if you’re in the position of deciding between he and Braylon Edwards.

Plus, who knows, Ochocino might just get kicker eligibility at some point this season. 

**********

* – Braylon Edwards drop photo credit: Waiting For Next Year

* – Chad Johnson v New England photo credit: PastaPadre.com

* – Chad Johnson / Carson Palmer photo credit: ESPN.com

* – Braylon Edwards v Cincy photo credit: SortsOfSports.com



About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.

Comments

  1. Gotta be Chad. Especially if he ends up kicking field goals.

  2. Thank you a lot for giving everyone an extraordinarily nice chance to read articles and blog posts from here. It is always so enjoyable and as well , packed with fun for me personally and my office fellow workers to visit your site at least thrice in 7 days to read through the newest issues you will have. And definitely, we’re usually satisfied considering the magnificent things you give. Some two points in this article are definitely the most effective I’ve had.

  3. An intriguing discussion is definitely worth comment.
    I think that you need to write more about this subject,
    it might not be a taboo subject but generally folks don’t discuss these subjects.
    To the next! Kind regards!!

  4. Hello Web Admin, I noticed that your On-Page SEO is is missing a few factors, for one you do not use all three H tags in your post, also I notice that you are not using bold or italics properly in your SEO optimization. On-Page SEO means more now than ever since the new Google update: Panda. No longer are backlinks and simply pinging or sending out a RSS feed the key to getting Google PageRank or Alexa Rankings, You now NEED On-Page SEO. So what is good On-Page SEO?First your keyword must appear in the title.Then it must appear in the URL.You have to optimize your keyword and make sure that it has a nice keyword density of 3-5% in your article with relevant LSI (Latent Semantic Indexing). Then you should spread all H1,H2,H3 tags in your article.Your Keyword should appear in your first paragraph and in the last sentence of the page. You should have relevant usage of Bold and italics of your keyword.There should be one internal link to a page on your blog and you should have one image with an alt tag that has your keyword….wait there’s even more Now what if i told you there was a simple WordPress plugin that does all the On-Page SEO, and automatically for you? That’s right AUTOMATICALLY, just watch this 4minute video for more information at. Seo Plugin

  5. Thanks very nice blog!

  6. Hi, I do believe this is an excellent site. I stumbledupon it ;
    ) I’m going to revisit once again since i have book-marked
    it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may
    you be rich and continue to help others.

  7. Select foods that are healthful and you should
    find that you just lose fat and weight slowly but steadily without really trying.

  8. I was able to find good information from your content.

  9. Good day! I could have sworn I’ve been to this website before but after checking through
    some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely delighted I found it and I’ll be bookmarking and checking back often!

  10. Keep up the good work, I read few posts on this site and I conceive that your web blog is rattling interesting and has bands of excellent information.

  11. Great article and right to the point. I am not sure if this is actually the best place to ask but do you folks have any ideea where to hire some professional writers? Thanks :)

  12. Some truly fantastic info, Gladiolus I detected this.

  13. I gotta favorite this web site it seems extremely helpful very helpful.

  14. Outstanding post, I believe blog owners should learn a lot from this web blog its real user pleasant. So much fantastic information on here :D.

  15. One thing is that often one of the most popular incentives for applying your card is a cash-back or maybe rebate present. Generally, you’ll get 1-5 back in various buying. Depending on the credit cards, you may get 1 returning on most expenditures, and 5 again on purchases made using convenience stores, filling stations, grocery stores along with ‘member merchants’.

  16. I have noticed that credit repair activity has to be conducted with techniques. If not, you are going to find yourself destroying your ranking. In order to reach your goals in fixing your credit score you have to be careful that from this minute you pay your entire monthly dues promptly prior to their scheduled date. It is really significant on the grounds that by certainly not accomplishing so, all other moves that you will decide to use to improve your credit rating will not be successful. Thanks for expressing your concepts.

  17. One thing is that one of the most typical incentives for using your credit cards is a cash-back or even rebate supply. Generally, you will get 1-5 back on various expenses. Depending on the card, you may get 1 back again on most buying, and 5 back again on purchases made using convenience stores, gas stations, grocery stores as well as ‘member merchants’.

  18. What college-university has a good creative writing program or focus on English?

  19. I’m trying to spike my journalistic profession and thought that all a blog page might be a good suggestion. But I also understand that there are ways to set up a paypal account attached to your blog for payment to read this or donate. I guess I was inspired by movie Julia and Jules and I wish to do it by myself. Any suggestions on how to begin?.

  20. my blog page is a web link on my web homepage and I would really like it to exhibit the content from the blog page? Any suggestions?

  21. How do I start a internet site for free or cheap?

  22. How do I begin website intended for the sole reason for redirecting individuals to another internet site?

  23. When Someone googles something that relates to certainly one of my wordpress blogs how can I get it to appear on the 1st page of their serach results?? Thanks!.

  24. How do I get blog page stats golf widget on my new wp blog?

  25. I want to transfer to a college that focuses on British and have a great Creative Writing program. I want to major in creative writing but how to start what college to transfer to..

  26. I am aware there are lots of firefox addons that help take care of saving photos, but what I is particularly looking intended for is, one which can allow myself to simply paste the picture link but it will surely download the picture from that hyperlink.. Reason getting, the photos I are saving is usually has their own specific link instead of on the same page itself..

  27. I think that is among the so much important info for me.
    And i’m happy studying your article. But want to remark on few basic things, The website taste is perfect,
    the articles is really great : D. Excellent process, cheers

  28. I enjoy reading through a post that can make
    people think. Also, many thanks for permitting me
    to comment!

  29. Any ideas of what I may write about? What would you be thinking about reading? And how can I get people to find it?.

  30. When Somebody googles something that relates to one of my wordpress blogs how do i get it to look on the initial page of their serach results?? Thanks a lot!.

  31. I need to set up a site but i don’t desire to use a free of charge web host. We are using the site for a webcomic but i am just not sure how to go about this. Can someone help me?.

  32. I have a inkjet printer hooked up to the computer in my room. My daughter has a computer in her space and no printer. How can the girl do her homework on her behalf computer, yet have it print out on the inkjet printer in my area? Do I require the internet on a single computer or both? Probably not at all?.

  33. Woah! I’m really digging the template/theme of this site. It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s challenging to get that “perfect balance” between user friendliness and appearance. I must say you’ve done a excellent job with this. Also, the blog loads extremely quick for me on Firefox. Superb Blog!

Trackbacks

  1. […] Chad OchoCinco Vs. Braylon Edwards (Midwest Sports Fans) […]

Speak Your Mind