Fantasy Football: Which Ohio WR Will Be Better in 2009 – Chad Ochocino or Braylon Edwards

2009 Fantasy Football Projections, Analysis: Chad Ochocinco, Braylon Edwards2008 was a terrible year for both Chad Johnson (err…Ochocinco) and Braylon Edwards. Both were coming off of career years in 2007 — Ochocinco set a career high with 1,440 yards while Edwards set career highs in everything while scoring 16 TDs — with great feats expected headed into last year. However, the two barely eclipsed 100 combined catches in 2008.

Unquestionably, many fantasy owners saw their teams struggle because of high drafts picks wasted on these two receivers.

As we head into 2009, a lot of fantasy owners and prognosticators are struggling with how to value Ochocino and Edwards in their drafts. Will they return to #1 WR status? Are they merely second-rate #2 or #3 WRs like they showed last year? Something in between?

And, most importantly, if you are ready to pick a WR and these two are left, who should you pluck off the draft board first?

It’s an intriguing question: Ochocino or Edwards? Certainly we all expect each to be better in 2009. But by how much and which player improves more? From my perspective — even though I’m a Browns fan — I would rather have Ochocino. In this post, I will list out a few of the reasons why.

1 – The QB position is crystal clear in Cincinnati

Wide receivers are volatile from year to year and week to week because their production is predicated in large part on the success of the guy taking snaps. Last year, Ochocino and the rest of the Cincy WRs were severely hampered by an injury to Carson Palmer that left the overmatched Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. This year, Carson Palmer is back and will be counting on Ochocino as his favorite and most experienced target.

2009 Fantasy Football Projections, Analysis: Chad Ochocinco, Braylon Edwards

It should be noted that Palmer is still dealing with some injury issues this offseason, and his sprained left ankle might keep him out of the team’s next preseason game. But the team expects Palmer to be 100% by opening day, and the positive is that the injury is not arm-related. Obviously if Palmer goes down again, and J.T. O’Sullivan becomes the starter, this is no longer an advantage for Ochocino.

In Cleveland, the QB situation is still muddy. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson entered the preseason entrenched in an all-out battle for the starting gig with no clear cut favorite. After two preseason battles (one won by Quinn, the other by Anderson) there still is no clarity.

Uncertainly at the QB position is never an auspicious sign for a WR, yet this is what Edwards has to deal with. I believe his value increases if Derek Anderson is the QB, as the deep ball will be more prevalent in the Browns’ offense, but the conventional wisdom has been that Quinn will end up getting the starting job. The whole thing gives me the headache, so who the hell knows. All it really means is that Edwards inherently carries more risk because of the QB flux in Cleveland.

2 – Last year was clearly an anomaly for Chad Ochocino, no necessarily so for Braylon Edwards

Look at Chad Ochocino’s career stats. Before last season, he had five straight seasons of 87+ catches and 1,270+ yards, plus 7+ touchdowns. His 2009 stats clearly jump on the page as the outlier. In looking at Braylon Edwards’ career stats however, his superb 2007 season is the one that jumps off the page as the outlier. 

Now, to be fair, Edwards barely had a fighting chance last year with the Browns’ offense proving to be absolutely abysmal. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn were shuffled back and forth as the starter, and there was no other consistent receiving threat to help draw coverage away from Edwards. But anyone who watched the Browns last year also knows that Edwards still should have had 65-70 catches (he had 55) and 1,000+ yards (he had 873) if he could just catch passes that hit him in the hands. Leading the league in drops — by a lot — is not the mark of a true #1 WR. Edwards now has an 80-catch, 16-TD season sandwiched in between two seasons in which he averaged 58 catches and 4.5 TDs.

2009 Fantasy Football Projections, Analysis: Chad Ochocinco, Braylon EdwardsSo which player is the real Braylon Edwards? We know that he is extremely talented, and capable of making incredible plays. He just has yet to show this ability consistently, which makes him risky from a fantasy perspective.

We know who the real Ochocinco is based on his consistent track record — unless he has simply lost a step and is on the downside of his career, which I do not believe — but the statistical evidence is less clear with Edwards. Though Braylon has youth on his side, he has also been a #3 fantasy receiver for two seasons and a #1 receiver for one. That’s not a good ratio when the alternative is a guy with a full half decade of evidence that proves his ability to anchor a receiving corps.

3 – Ochocinco has more proven help around him to prevent consistent double-coverage

The Bengals lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the offseason, but brought in Laveraneus Coles to replace him. And though Coles at 32 is not the same player he once was, he still caught 70 balls and 7 TDs last year with an aging and injured Brett Favre as his QB. The Bengals also have a rejuvenated and possibly more mature Chris Henry (sleeper alert!  Seriously…) on the outside to provide a deep threat opposite Ochocinco. Plus, the Bengals running game sucks (Cedric Benson?  Please.) and their defense is unproven, meaning there will probably be a lot of throwing. With a solid three WR attack, Ochocino should find plenty of openings.

As for the Browns, they attempted a more long-term solution to their passing attack woes this offseason. Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicius are gone and Donte Stallworth is suspended, and in their place the Browns drafted two rookies (Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoai) in the second round and hope that the combo of Steve Heiden-Martin Rucker can provide a solid tight end duo. They also brought in Mike Furrey as a sure-handed slot receiver. While I love the long-term potential of the rookies, and think the Heiden-Rucker combo is underrated, there is no proven reason yet for teams not to double cover Edwards and make someone else prove they can produce consistently. Remember, when Edwards went nuts in 2007, Kellen Winslow was healthy all year and Joe Jurevecius provided a sure-handed option on the other side.

And seriously, If Braylon can barely catch passes when he’s wide open, how are we to expect a significant rebound when he’ll probably be pretty heavily covered again all year in 2009?

Plus, with Jerome Harrison and James Davis showing great potential alongside the aging Jamal Lewis, the Browns will be more run-oriented than the Bengals. I would think Ochocino would see more targets than Edwards as a result, obviously making his value higher.

In the end, I believe 2009 will be much better for both Chad Ochocino and for Braylon Edwards than 2008 proved to be. As for who will be better, other than his advancing age (Ochocinco will be 31 when the season starts, while Edwards will be 26) there is no reason not to like Ochocinco more for 2009. I think we will see numbers much closer to his averages from 2003-2007 (90-95 catches, 1,350-1,400 yards, 8-9 TDs) while Edwards will be somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 seasons (70-75 catches, 1,000-1,100 yards, 7-9 TDs).

Draft Chad Ochocino as a low-end #1 WR and feel good about it so long as Carson Palmer stays upright. Draft Braylon Edwards as a #2 WR and hope for — but don’t expect — a surprising resurgence to #1 status. If you are like me, and your goal is to minimize risk early, Chad Ochocino is the way to go if you’re in the position of deciding between he and Braylon Edwards.

Plus, who knows, Ochocino might just get kicker eligibility at some point this season. 


* – Braylon Edwards drop photo credit: Waiting For Next Year

* – Chad Johnson v New England photo credit:

* – Chad Johnson / Carson Palmer photo credit:

* – Braylon Edwards v Cincy photo credit:

About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.


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  123. i am setting up A web portal pertaining to my business. and i would like to know the copyright laws guidelines, particularly the legality of copying other content from other websites. in other words, is it ok to copy an article from an additional site and paste this in my site ( naturally , i will be putting the guide source or link it in to my site)? require hard primary data please. if possible a weblink. thanks a lot..

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  130. How can innovative writing end up being taught within a standardized method?

  131. I have been informed to improve your creative writing you need to read a lot.. What great classic books, can I examine (from any kind of period or country) that will improve my writing.. Genre is trivial, though I am not really writing meant for children.. I said classic, I read science fiction/recent literature because entertainment. But to improve the quality of writing, see the masters. May any one compose a list of great writers to learn..

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  133. I reside in Costa Rica and am going to publish a residential area newspaper, what are the steps to go about copyrighting the name and content articles published in it? And also when can one start using the copyright laws symbol?.

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  140. You can certainly see your expertise within the work you write. The sector hopes for even more passionate writers like you who aren’t afraid to mention how they believe. All the time follow your heart.

  141. Together with everything that appears to be building within this subject matter, many of your points of view are generally quite refreshing. On the other hand, I appologize, but I can not subscribe to your entire strategy, all be it exciting none the less. It seems to everybody that your comments are generally not totally rationalized and in fact you are generally yourself not even wholly certain of your argument. In any event I did appreciate looking at it.

  142. I just discovered using Joomla for dynamic website design yet feel the limitation on use of themes is a significant minus. I think it should be feasible to make use of my own template in the style. Anyone help?.

  143. What are some good Tumblr blogs where you can submit photos, to gain even more followers?

  144. I must import about 50 of 458 posts from a blogspot blog page into wordpress. If I make use of the plug in import tool, I actually is worried that it will certainly duplicate the posts that were already brought in in a prior batch. Also the prior posts have been re-categorized. I need to hold those as well. Any ideas will help! Thanks..

  145. My buddy and I have been discussing personal blogs and online journaling. She feels that personal emotions and such must not expressed in such open forums. I realize no problem with it. Talk about your thoughts:. 1 . Do you blog or journal?. two. Do you prefer face to face phrase of emotions over written communication?.

  146. Unquestionably believe that which you said. Your favorite reason appeared to be on the net the easiest thing to be aware of.
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    Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

  147. Excellent blog here! Also your site loads up fast! What web host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up as fast as yours lol

  148. I all the time used to read piece of writing in news papers but now
    as I am a user of internet so from now I am using net for posts, thanks to web.

  149. We are considering becoming a ‘ProBlogger”. I know Running a blog is a very gradual business, but nevertheless i want to know how much time does it take me personally to start earning at least $100.. I can work everyday for approximately 11 hrs. Can i expect start earning $100 within 8 weeks.. Please folks help, produce some idea on how much hard work it’s going to..

  150. Link exchange is nothing else however it is simply placing the
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    person will also do similar for you.

  151. Is there a way to make your WordPress blogs do-follow?


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