The Curious Case of Raul Ibanez: Steroid Speculation Perhaps Unfair, but Great Start in 2009 Raising Eyebrows

Update: On Wednesday morning, Raul Ibanez responded harshly to the post below in the Philadelphia Inquirer. Follow the link to read a detailed description of Ibanez’s response and our response to Raul Ibanez and the general debate about steroid speculation in baseball.

Heading into this year’s fantasy baseball drafts, there was one name I was targeting more than any other as a mid-round steal: Raul Ibanez. I was not alone in this assessment either. Ibanez had been flying totally under the radar in Seattle, where he had quietly become one of the most consistent #2/#3 fantasy OFs in baseball. Look at his numbers from the last three years he was in the Great Northwest playing in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field:

  • 2006: 33 HR, 123 RBI, 103 R, .289 BA, .869 OPS
  • 2007: 21 HR, 105 RBI, 80 R, .291 BA, .831 OPS
  • 2008: 23 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R, .293 BA, .837 OPS

That is just solid and consistent production all the way around.

With Ibanez moving to the much more hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park by way of his signing with the Philadelphia Phillies in the offseason, most fantasy prognosticators had Ibanez penciled in as the type of grizzled veteran who could see a slight bump in his already good numbers by playing half of his games in a ballpark more conducive to offensive production and all of his games in a better lineup.

I knew heading into my draft that if I came out of it with Ibanez as my 3rd OF, drafted somewhere in rounds 8-10, that I would be feeling pretty good about my team.

In the league I pay the most attention to, my first five picks were OF Carlos Beltran, 3B Evan Longoria, SP Roy Halladay, OF Jason Bay, and 1B Adrian Gonzlez. Obviously each of those guys has had a great start to the season and are primary reasons why my team has been in first place all year…until I got waxed this week and fell to second, 2.0 games behind the league leader.

But my best pick in terms of value was nailing my pre-draft target and getting Raul Ibanez in the 9th round. As all baseball fans, fantasy or otherwise, know by now, Raul Ibanez has been off to a torrid start in 2009. Just look at the numbers:

  • 2009 (55 games): 19 HR, 54 RBI, 46 R, .329 BA, 1.062 OPS

In fact, the 37-year old Ibanez has been so good that it has led to the inevitable speculation that his improvement may be attributable to factors other than his new lineup, playing in a better ballpark for hitters, or additional maturation as a hitter. In this day and age of suspicion at any significant jump in numbers, even over small sample sizes, it is what it is – and such speculation is to be expected.

In fact, this morning I woke up to the following message board post in the league in which I own Ibanez. (FYI, my team name is Hitting Crean-Up, hence the reference to “crean”):

sorry, crean, but i must call bullshit on raul ibanez. you’re an objective man so i am sure you’ll love it while it lasts, but do not intend on it lasting forever. of course crazier things have been sustainable.

where have we seen this before? a recent 37th birthday is celebrated with a career year in home runs??? prior to this year ibanez has a career high of 33 home runs in one season and no other season of his 14 played with greater than 24 home runs!!! during his previous career year ibanez hit a HR roughly every 19 at bats and this year his pace is roughly every 11.

i thought they were testing???

My initial reaction was to get defensive and reply by saying that Ibanez’s numbers in 2009 were based on what I assumed were significant differences in ballpark factors between Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field. Ibanez, I surmised, a left-handed hitter, was simply taking advantage of the lefty-friendly dimensions of Citizen’s Bank Park that had helped to make Ryan Howard such a beast.

However, I resisted the urge to fire back a gut-reaction retort and decided to do a little investigation. I figured that before responding I should put together my case that there were perfectly logical reasons to explain Ibanez’s breakout that would help counter any steroid speculation.

First, I looked at the dimensions of both Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field, courtesy of BaseballFanatics.net. Here they are:

Ballpark Dimension Comparison

Park Left Left-Center Center Right-Center Right
Citizens Bank Park 329 355 401 357 330
Safeco Field 331 375 405 365 326

As you can see, Citizens Bank Park has shorter dimensions to every part of the park expect down the right field line, where it is four feet longer than Safeco. Clearly, these dimensions are part of the reason why Citizens’ Bank Park is considered such a great hitters’ park.

However, I have to say that I was surprised when I looked at the Park Factor rankings on ESPN.com. I expected Citizens Bank Park to be among the top 5 best hitters’ parks in baseball, just based on reputation. That is not the case, at least according to the park factors metrics used by ESPN (which are explained if you click the links below).

Below is a park factor comparison (for runs and HRs) between Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field. 1.000 is average; higher than 1.000 means the park favors hitters, lower than 1.000 means the park favors pitchers.


Park Factor Comparison

Park Runs HR Overall Rank
2009      
Citizens Bank Park 0.981 1.023 15
Safeco Field 0.840 0.876 27
       
2008      
Citizens Bank Park 1.029 1.022 15
Safeco Field 0.932 0.900 24
       
2007      
Citizens Bank Park 1.034 1.418 13
Safeco Field 0.948 1.002 19
       
2006      
Citizens Bank Park 1.063 1.201 8
Safeco Field 0.881 0.888 27

Conclusions? For me, I was surprised that Citizens Bank Park did not rate higher. Clearly it is a better hitters’ park than Safeco Field, but the differences in the HR factor do not account for the significant jump in Ibanez’s HR totals now that he has made the switch.

From 2006-2008, Raul Ibanez’s ratio for AB/HR was 23.8, including his career year in 2006 when he hit 33 HRs. In his home games this season, Ibanez has hit 8 HR in 93 AB, which is a HR every 11.6 ABs. Based on the four-year averages of the HR factors of Citizens Bank Park (1.165) and Safeco (0.9225), we would expect Ibanez’s HR rate at home to increase 21%. It has improved much more than 21% however, more than doubling so far in 2009.

But Ibanez is not just taking advantage of his home ballpark.

In his road games this season, Ibanez has hit 11 HR in 126 ABs, which is good for a HR every 11.45 ABs. So his HR rate is actually slightly better on the road, which I did not expect since my gut-reaction thinking was that Ibanez was simply enjoying the more hitter-friendly home cooking at Citzens Bank Park.

So in actuality, and in opposition of my initial hypothesis, through the relatively small sample size of 55 games it is impossible to say that Ibanez’s prodigious jump in HR/AB has been solely a factor of his new ballpark.

What else could explain Ibanez’s bump in power? Considering that 11 of his 19 HRs have come on the road, perhaps we should explore the ballparks where those home runs have been hit. And to do that, I visited a site that will be fascinating for other stat geeks like me: HitTrackerOnline.com. I sorted the Phillies’ 2009 HRs by name to do a closer analysis of Ibanez’s HRs this season.

Here are the ballparks where Raul Ibanez has hit HRs this season, with their current 2009 HR factor in parentheses.

  • Citizens Bank Park: 8 (1.021)
  • Nationals Park: 4 (.808)
  • Yankee Stadium: 2 (1.563)
  • Great American Ballpark: 2 (1.182)
  • PETCO Park: 2 (0.736)
  • Coors Field: 1 (0.943)

As you can see, Raul Ibanez has enjoyed success at three of the most notorious hitters’ parks in baseball: the new Yankee Stadium, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, and Coors Field (though the overall HR numbers at Coors are down this year). Nationals Park and PETCO Park have always been known as more pitcher-friendly, and considering that 6 of Ibanez’s HRs have come at these parks, it seems to balance out the effect of his 5 HRs at NY, CIN, and CO.

But let’s again take a closer look. These are the pitchers that Ibanez has hit HRs off of at Nationals Park and PETCO Park, with their season ERA in parenthesis:

  • Daniel Cabrera (5.85 ERA)
  • Scott Olsen – twice (7.24 ERA)
  • Saul Rivera (8.49 ERA)
  • Josh Geer (5.60 ERA)
  • Joe Thatcher (4.50 ERA)

So Raul Ibanez has feasted on terrible pitching, even in parks that are tougher to hit home runs in. What does this mean? I’m not really sure. Most hitters obviously will perform better against bad pitching than they do against good pitching. But over the small sample size we’ve seen through 55 games, perhaps Ibanez has seen more than his normal share of bad pitching and has taken advantage of it. I don’t have time to dig into this any more this morning, so I’ll just leave that hanging there as a potential explanation for a portion of Ibanez’s HR and OPS explosion.

And even though Ibanez’s aggregate numbers in 2009 are incredible, there are signs that he is starting to slow down a bit. So far in June, through 32 ABs Ibanez has 2 HRs. This rate of 16 ABs per HR is a little bit closer to his career average, and to the improvement we might have expected based on the differential in HR factor between his new home park and his old home park. While it’s a terribly small sample size to draw too many conclusions from, but it is one more piece of data we can look at.

I also wondered whether Raul Ibanez was historically a fast starter, and perhaps that was helping to contribute to his fast start. Look at Ibanez’s career splits, however, and you see that this is not the case. Ibanez’s career pre-All Star break HR rate is 1 every 23.9 ABs. His career post-All Star break HR rate is 1 every 26.0 ABs. So he has slightly more power during the first half of the season, but the difference is not significant enough to explain his torrid start in 2009. Besides, his BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS are all slightly better during the second half of the season.

Now that we have gone ’round and ’round with all of these stats — my attempt to be an “objective man” in response to the message board comment from this morning — what can we conclude?

First off, we can conclude that I made one hell of a draft pick. Whatever the explanation for Ibanez’s great start, I’m just glad it’s happening on my roster and not on somebody else’s.

Secondly, we have to acknowledge the obvious caveat that 55 games is not a full season and is still a relatively small sample size. Ibanez could very easily slow down and finish with 30-35 HRs (which is actually my expectation for what will happen), which would still be an above average season based on his career stats, but certainly not as eye-popping and outside the mean as the pace he is on right now. The truth is that even I, the most ardent Ibanez supporter heading into 2009, do not expect him to maintain his current 600 AB pace and hit 52 home runs.

Thirdly, it’s time for me to begrudgingly acknowledge the elephant in the room: any aging hitter who puts up numbers this much better than his career averages is going to immediately generate suspicion that the numbers are not natural, that perhaps he is under the influence of some sort of performance enhancer. And since I was not able to draw any absolute parallels between his prodigously improved HR rate and his new ballpark’s hitter-friendliness, it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility that “other” performance enhancers could be part of the equation.

Sorry Raul Ibanez and Major League Baseball, that’s just the era that we are in — testing or no testing.

Personally, I am withholding judgment until we see a full seasons’ worth of stats. Many players put together terrific runs of 150-250 ABs in the midst of otherwise normal or just slightly above average (based on their career numbers) seasons. Ibanez’s terrific 219 AB run since Opening Day is just magnified right now because it came at the start of the season.

Maybe he was energized by joining the defending World Series champs.

Maybe he is seeing better pitchers by joining a lineup that includes Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino.

Maybe he is in the midst of a run of good luck in which he’s seeing good pitches to hit at above-average hitters parks and finding himself facing terrible pitchers even at the tougher hitters parks he’s played in.

Maybe Raul Ibanez is simply a “freak”, and has been a late bloomer with a career track that refuses to follow the norm, as explained in this Bleacher Report post.

Maybe the 37-year old Ibanez trained differently this offseason with the pressure of joining the Phillies’ great lineup and is in the best shape he’s ever been in.

And maybe that training included…

Well, you know where that one was going, but I’d prefer to leave it as unstated speculation. However, if Ibanez ends up hitting 45-50 homers this year, you can bet that I won’t be the only one raising the question. And judging by my buddy’s message board post this morning, and questions like this in public forums, people already are.

For the record, Ibanez has denied ever using steroids. Back in 2007 when former Mariners OF Shane Monahan said that the clubhouse culture in Seattle led him to use steroids, Ibanez and Jamie Moyer came out and publicly lambasted Monahan while denying that steroids had ever been a presence in the Mariners clubhouse. Of course, as well all know, explicit denials of steroid use don’t really mean a whole hell of a lot these days.

It will be a wonderful day when we can see a great start by a veteran like Ibanez and not immediately jump to speculating about whether steroids or PEDs are involved. We certainly are not at that point yet, however.

And whether we ever get there remains to be seen.

But whatever the reason for Raul Ibanez’s oustanding run this far in 2009, I hope to see it continue. Regardless of why it’s happening, it’s happening. And like I said before, better that it happens on my roster than somebody else’s.

Update 6/9: At Philly.com this morning, John Gonzalez takes me to task a bit for firing what he deems as a “cheap shot” at Raul Ibanez. Here is an excerpt from his article, and the link if you want to read it all.

The MSF post, written by the previously undiscovered poet “JRod,” noted that Ibanez has bashed the majority of his 19 homers at hitter-friendly parks like the new Yankee Stadium, Great American Ball Park in Cincy, and Citizens Bank Park. It also conceded that Ibanez has taken advantage of some really terrible pitchers – guys like Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and Saul Rivera, all of whom have badly bloated ERAs.

Then JRod dismissed all the evidence of opportunism, pivoted like a second baseman turning a double play, and fired his conclusion into the mitts of conspiracy theorists and amateur drug testers everywhere: “Any aging hitter who puts up numbers this much better than his career averages is going to immediately generate suspicion that the numbers are not natural, that perhaps he is under the influence of some sort of performance enhancer. . . . Maybe the 37-year-old Ibanez trained differently this off-season with the pressure of joining the Phillies’ great lineup and is in the best shape he’s ever been in. And maybe that training included. . . . Well, you know where that one was going, but I’d prefer to leave it as unstated speculation.”

Yeah, except when you put the words “under the influence” in close proximity to “performance enhancer,” that’s not really “unstated speculation.” That’s pretty much an updated version of the old “Hey, pal, have you stopped beating your wife yet?” trick.

In response, I don’t believe that I “dismissed all the evidence of opportunism.” I actually set out to disprove the speculation that Raul Ibanez’s great start was somehow PED-induced. And my conclusion was that it was impossble to conclude that from a simple examination of ballpark factors and lineup improvement, and that the reality of Major League Baseball today is that the unfortunate logical progression takes us all to the place we don’t want to go: thinking that an aging hitter putting up career-high numbers across the board might be chemically enhanced.

Fair for Raul Ibanez? Absolutely not. Just look at the title of my post. But fair for Major League Baseball overall based on its past? Absolutely.

In fairness to John, I think his primary point was more about the rapid speed with which a story like mine, fraught with speculation, can take off in today’s day and age. And he’s right, even though so far only 300 people had even read the post, which started out as just a response to my buddy in a fantasy league.

I wrote John a quick email after reading his post, thanking him for the recognition and explaining my perspective a bit more. Here is the end of that email, as I think it is the best way to sum up this post before I move onto something else for today:

I set out trying to disprove that there was reason to speculate, but the past 15 or so years has made it hard to do so. I always defended Manny Ramirez and he made me and a lot of other people look like a fool; and honestly, that re-opened the floodgates to me erring on the side guilty until proven innocent, as opposed to the other way around — as it should be.

The truth is that I sincerely hope that Raul Ibanez and every other major leaguer is clean. And there is no way I could look him in the eye and tell him I think he’s on steroids — nor was that my conclusion. But I think it’s also true that Raul Ibanez would have a hard time looking baseball fans in the eye and saying they have no right to speculate. Through no fault of his own, but through that of his peers past and present, steroid speculation is now as much a part of baseball as the MLB Network.

Sad is definitely the most apt word to describe it.



About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.

Comments

  1. You spent a long time talking about the ballpark and only gave a brief mention of the improvement in the lineup. I’m a Mariner’s fan and can tell you firsthand that Ibanez never had any protection in Seattle. Ichiro leads off and then what? That’s been the story for years. Ibanez gave us some pop hitting 3rd or 4th for a number of years but he had to create that all on his own. He usually had Beltre hitting behind him. Now he is sandwiched between Howard and Rollins. And earlier in the season he hit behind Rollins so there were probably guys on base at a higher rate than in Seattle. Not sure that you can find these numbers but I bet you’d find that Ibanez had a lot of one run homers in Seattle but now he’s getting them with runners on base.

    Great article.

    • @Adam, thanks Adam. And great point by you. Honestly, I would have liked to have spent about 2,000 more words and another couple of hours researching this article but just did not have time this morning before work started. The more I think about it, the most I do think that the improved lineup has played a significant factor in Ibanez’s explosion.

      I still think it is hard to say that the ballpark and lineup can make THAT big of a difference, but we’ll see how Raul does over his next 200-300 ABs.

      • @JRod, Not having time to do research is not a valid excuse for defamation of character. Way to be a “professional writer”

        • @Libel, I would not call this “defamation of character” in any way. JRod admits that his research time was limited, and made attempts to balance the obvious suspicion (that I’ve heard before this article) with what statistical evidence can be found right now.

          @JRod, I heard about your article on ESPN’s Baseball Today podcast, and then decided to check it out after seeing the link on ESPN.com. You have done a great job of couching both opinions, and I hope that people will take the time (though unlikely) to read the article and see that you were not defaming Ibanez, but trying to look at the statistical evidence and provide a terrific explanation for his hot start. I feel (and hope) that the fact he has face low-grade pitching in good to fair hitters parks in a small season sample is the best explanation until found otherwise. I just hope he doesn’t send you his poop.

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        • @Libel, Jerod IS NOT A PROFESSIONAL WRITER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He wrote a blog. And a good one at that!!!!!!! Read it please

        • silviomossa says:

          @Libel, I agree. This kind of stuff if simply irresponsible.

        • Kathy Stice says:

          @Libel, ditto from me!

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    • @Adam, While the increase in runners on base caused by hitting in a greater lineup is certainly helpful to Ibanez’s RBI totals, studies have shown lineup protection to have little to no effect on a hitter’s core skills, which his home run rate would count as. Check out The Book for a very in depth discussion of this topic.

  2. TripNines says:

    Phillies Latino Connection

    Prior to pitching for the Red Sox, JC Romero had a 4.60 lifetime ERA. Just prior to being released by the Sox he was pitching well and his ERA was 3.15, did they suspect something? He was then signed by the Phillies and compiled an ERA of 2.17 with them. He was rewarded for this with a 50-game suspension by Major League Baseball for using performance enhancing drugs.

    Raul Ibanez has gone from a good player with a lifetime BA of .287 and 20 HRs per 500 ABs to a player hitting .330 with 19 HRs in only 219 ABs. He is a leading all NL outfielders in his quest to make his first all-star team at the ripe old age of 37.

    Pedro Feliz, a lifetime .254 hitter is currently Batting 52 points higher at .306.

    Carlos Ruiz, a lifetime .247 hitter who batted .219 last season, is currently hitting 90 points higher this season.

    • @TripNines, interesting statistics, but what is your overall point? That Latino players who go to Philadelphia start playing better immediately, coincidentally or otherwise? Or, based on the Romero example starting it off, are you implying something more?

      • TripNines says:

        @JRod, one might assume that I am implying more, but it may be that all it is, to quote you, is “interesting statistics. The fact that you and I consider them to be interesting is reason enough to post them.

        It is made all the more interesting, in my opinion, that Romero, having shown such great improvement upon joining Manny’s Red Sox, was released despite his effectiveness. That he continued his new found effectiveness with the Phillies and was subsequently suspended for 50 games. And that this was followed by Ibanez, Feliz and Ruiz having such great and unexpected starts to their 2009 season.

        Note: Feliz had a mediocre season last year so your “improved lineup” theory does not work for him nor does it work for Ruiz who is a product of the Phillies farm system.

        Everything I stated is undeniable fact. These improved performances may be little more than a synergistic effect of three latin players bonding and, in the comfort of their native language, discussing baseball in all its nuances. It will be interesting to see if their performance continues through the entire season.

        • phillyphaninchi says:

          @TripNines, I’m a lifer Philly fan. In case you don’t remember, Feliz just so happened to need surgery on his back this off season. I can almost guarantee you that as the season wears on and his back starts to hurt again he’ll fade.

          As for Ruiz, you probably didn’t watch the world series. Carlos tore $#!t up at a .375 clip. The only guy who hit better was Werth. This is a carryover and if you’ve followed his career he’s hitting the ball the same way he did in the postseason. If you look at his hitting charts you’ll see that he’s spraying the ball all over more and has less pop outs which means he’s just driving the ball more.

          JC is a head case. His post suspension numbers will tell us everything.

          Just wanted to clear that up since Chooch should get way more love.

          phillyphaninchi

        • TripNines says:

          To phillyphaninchi,

          Prior to this season, Carlos Ruiz has been little more than a mediocre catcher. An article by Paul Hagen, late last season, compared him to Chris Coste and Coste stats showed him to be marginally better.

          Offensively his .217 BA last season speaks for itself. As for the world series, I watched. Two seeing eye dribblers accounted for .175 of that .375 BA. Also his biggest hit was a misplayed 40′ “swinging bunt”

          I also watched the entire post season in which Ruiz committed two errors, was charged with two passed balls (should have been 3 or 4) and allowed five wild pitches, one of which was on a swinging 3rd strike that allowed the Dodgers to mount a 3-run comeback.

          In the post season Carlos tore nothing up! His BA was a modest .267 with the two infield dribblers and a more Ruiz-like .222 if you discount them

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  3. Wow, way to throw Ibanez’s great season under the bus like that Jrod. The guy works hard and is just in a groove right now, why bring up steroids and HGH? He has no history of this and they don’t help you track the ball better from a pitchers hand. There is no reason to believe that he or Ruiz is juicing. It’s not like Ruiz is crushing the ball out of the park. Both of them are just seeing the ball good and are in a groove, i’m sure they will slump this season too but just because a guy is having a good season doesn’t mean that they should be automatically in the performance enhancing discussion. I just think that’s irresponsible especially with no evidence to back it up.

    • @Nate,

      Thanks for the comment Nate. Your perspective is appreciated.

      My original intention was to debunk the speculation that I had heard elsewhere, which is why I tried to look deeper into the stats for objective reasons for Ibanez’s great start. And as I state, I hope and I think he is clean — and am withholding any judgment about Ibanez until we see a full body of work.

      But the point is that the speculation is out there; and while it is certainly unfair to Ibanez (look at the title of the post) it is warranted based on the track record of the MLB over the last 15 years. I understand why some may be upset at me for even bringing it up, but Ibanez and his fans should be more upset at all of the players who have denied using steroids or who we thought would never use but then later failed tests or were strongly implicated. And some of the venom should be saved for MLB and the union, who waited way too long to act.

      We’re in an era where any performance greatly above the mean by a player of Raul Ibanez’s age and experience is looked upon with suspicion. We can continue trying to blame the messenger, but that’s placing the blame on the wrong parties. Remember how so many people blamed the media for not digging deeper when Big Mac and Sammy were chasing Roger during that “magical” summer? We can’t really have it both ways.

      For the record, I don’t think Ibanez is using and would be surprised if it comes out later that he did or is. But to avoid the speculation is pointless. It’s there, it will be there, and the cloud of steroids isn’t leaving the MLB soon.

      It’s sad and unfair, but unfortunately, it’s reality.

      • @JRod, Avoiding speculation and promoting it are completely different things. You say your original intentions were to debunk the speculation but all you succeeded in doing was to throw gasoline on the fire. Promoting negative and false characterizations on individuals is the very essence of libel.

        • @Libel, you are grossly mischaracterizing what @JRod wrote, and repeating your hyperbolic allegations doesn’t increase their credibility. Simmer down and try reading for comprehension instead of skimming.

  4. Frank Joyce says:

    Hey Jrod…interesting read…I was going to link you to the Philly.com article but you beat me to it…I am a Philly fan but have always been impressed by Ibanez. I spent some time in Seattle and it’s a wonder anyone in that lineup drove over a hundred runs, let alone 3 years in a row…this guy has had good raw talent and power since he broke in, driving in 103 his first full season in Kansas City. Up until this season, he’s played in small market underachieving places. The chance to play in such a great fan driven town like Philly and the chances he’s having this year in such a great lineup are probably doing wonders for his confidence, motivation & enthusiasm. If you had just signed possibly your final contract & were gearing up to play for the reigning World Phucking Champions, I think that would help a little to motivate and play at your highest level of ability. I also hope he keeps it up…just imagine what he can do once Jimmy Rollins gets back in his groove. Good research & good reading my friend…BTW, Philly repeat all the way.

    • @Frank Joyce, thanks for the comment Frank. You were much kinder that some of your other Philly brethren have been in emails…but it’s understandable and actually quite entertaining.

      And you are right about Ibanez. It is entirely possible that I spent way too little time developing the lineup angle of this story and that being surrounded by Utley, Howard, Rollins, Victorino, and Werth has had a huge impact on Ibanez. Combined with the new park and the excitement of playing with the defending champs, maybe that does explain his torrid start. I hope it does. I’ve always been an Ibanez fan and the last thing I want to see is him the latest in the endless line of great stories that turn out to end badly.

      And whatever the reasons for his turn around, he needs to keep it up. My fantasy team depends on it!

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  5. Are you considering the talent gap between the two leagues? The American League has, statistically, been a tougher league than the National League for a number of years now (records in All Star games and interleague play being among the indicators). Moving from the AL to the NL has proven to be a boon for a number of players.

    So Ibanez not only has the benefit of going from a pitchers’ park to a hitters’ park, but he’s going from a pitchers’ park in a tougher league to a hitters’ park in a statistically weaker league.

    And, of course, home run paces can be misleading. He’s only hit two in the last two weeks after hitting 17 in the first month and a half.

    • @brian howard,

      You are certainly correct that his pace has slowed…and I have two tough fantasy weeks to show for it. I addressed that very point above, and it is why I said I was withholding judgment. He very well may have had a hot 225 AB stretch that was magnified by the fact that it came at the beginning of the season.

      And your point about the difference between the AL and NL is one I had not thought of. Here are the Interleague records and a stat comparison over the last 5 seasons:

      2008: AL 149-NL 103 (.591)
      2007: AL 137-NL 115 (.544)
      2006: AL 154-NL 98 (.611)
      2005: AL 136-NL 116 (.540)
      2004: AL 127-NL 125 (.504)

      Interleague comparison
      Statistic AL NL
      BA .275 .251
      Runs 1,249 1,014
      ERA 3.69 4.55

      Source:
      http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/30874255/

      So, objectively, that is certainly another factor that could play into it…and one I wish I had thought of myself. Great point.

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  6. Another well thought-out and reasoned defense against Ibanez’s numbers being PED-induced can be found here:

    http://baseballmusings.com/?p=35466#comments

  7. I just want to let you know that I think this is absurd. You’re basing this on pure speculation, as you stated, but it’s pretty clear to me that you had never seen Ibanez play before he joined the Phillies. I was ecstatic that we signed him, because he has been an extremely consistent hitter virtually his entire career, and unfortunately in ‘small markets’.

    And a couple points regarding who he has hit his HRs off of:

    1) They’re all major league pitchers. Period. Hitting a baseball (a homerun, at that) is the hardest thing in sports. Whether it’s off of a first ballot HOFer or an end of the roster ‘scrub’ he’s still hitting it out off of a professional pitcher.

    2) He also has homeruns off of: Andy Pettitte, Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez (x2), oh, and some guy named Johan you might’ve heard of. Those aren’t exactly scrubs.

    Go Phillies!

    -Jeff

    • @Jeff, I am beginning to think that people are not even reading the article before commenting.

      I tried to make it very clear that my original aim was to find objective reasons to exonerate Ibanez from the steroids speculation that I had heard elsewhere. And I think there is probably a good chance that I did see Ibanez play, considering the fact that I explained in the article that he was my top sleeper heading into this season. So I expected him to improve.

      I’m not sure what point you are trying to make with your comment about pitchers. I brought up the pitchers he has faced — who are Major Leaguers but substandard Major Leaguers as opposed to Ibanez who is an above-average to great hitter — as a potential defense against him being juiced, thinking that perhaps he’s just hit a run of good luck that accounts for him doubling his career HR rate.

      The point is this: if the baseball world of public opinion where a court of law, Raul Ibanez would not be convicted or steroid use, because clearly there is reasonable doubt. However, there clearly is enough circumstantial evidence, based on his career averages and the PED trends in baseball over 15 years, for him to reasonably be “brought in for questioning” to extend the metaphor. That’s all I was getting at. I was trying to disprove my buddy who strongly implied that Ibanez was dirty. I wanted to find enough statistical evidence to explain a doubling of Ibanez’s career HR average. I didn’t find enough, at least for me, to totally and completely dismiss PEDs as some ridiculous notion.

      Never once did I accuse Ibanez of using steroids…I only said that the league he plays in means that his great start will have an unfair cloud of suspicion whether he did or didn’t, but that the cloud is warranted based on the MLB’s history with PEDs.

      So Jeff, while I appreciate your comment and perspective, you might want to read more than the headline and a couple of paragraphs before commenting. That is the impression I got from your comment. But thanks for visiting, and hopefully Ibanez keeps it up…for your team and for mine.

      • @JRod, you are falling victim to the success of the internet: it has been encouraging steadily-reduced attention spans that now seek to encapsulate enlightenment into 140-character snippets. People don’t have the patience for lengthy, detailed pieces like yours, and they’ve become allergic to inconveniences like “context”.

        Yes indeed, “sad” is the word.

        • @Texrat: Additionally, Philadelphia sports fans are largely the most belligerent, nasty, moronic fans out there. Expecting them to read an article instead of simply reacting to it is an exercise in futility.

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  8. Danielle says:

    Hey Jeff,

    I indeed have read through your article and am sadly disappointed.You know( or maybe not)that in this day and age of MLB -even raising the specter that someone who is using PED’s stains them. AS well, to correct another reponse from someone regarding JCRomero-he used an over the counter supplement after he asked MLB players union if it were ok and was labeled as PED user.

    Raul Ibanez would consider it a disgrace to use a PED. He does not follow suit of other players that have abused PEDs. If , in fact you did not know the truth about Raul-that he doesn’t use steroid, then you really should n’t have speculated ( probably to get ratings forthis blog).As I said , the specter has now been raised. Ibanez prides himself on being a person of good character because HE IS a person of good character. You article is pointless.

    • Why wouldnt we speculate that he did PEDs. I sure as hell did, he needs to blame his fellow players instead of a blogger.

      Im tired of the TEST MY BLOOD defence…HGH cant be tested for….soooo

    • Think Blue Crew says:

      @Danielle, His name isn’t Jeff, his name is JRod. I doubt you even read his article, if you didn’t even read his name.

      • Danielle says:

        @Think Blue Crew,

        I most certainly read this trash( disguised as concrete journalism).Unless you have proof -don’t speculate .Raul doesn’t use HGH or PED.

        Blue Crew-I don’t care if his name is JROD , JROLL, JLO or MUD-which it is where I come from.

        Raul is a decent person. Keep your slander to yourself.

        • @Danielle, Do you know anything about baseball?? Because your comments don’t reflect it. NO ONE said Raul wasn’t a descent person. Goodness me. READ THE ARTICLE so you can post an intelligent comment.
          Not sounding good now

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  9. JRod,

    I appreciate your well-thought out analysis. As a lifelong Phillies phan (and blogger), I am having a hard time not letting my passionate, undying loyalty for the Phils cloud whatever objectivity I might have in this case. In all honesty, my gut reaction is to get really mad at YOU for posting this speculation – and it’s pure speculation at this point. That, however, would be intellectually dishonest of me, giving the era in which we live.

    However, you write multiple times in the comments section that you were simply responding to the speculation that is already “out there.” Well, I gotta tell ya, your article was the first I’ve heard of it. Doesn’t mean people weren’t thinking about it or perhaps talking about it over beers at a bar somewhere, but I have heard not one iota of speculation in the blogosphere or media until you brought it up. In my opinion, I don’t really think that a comment in a message board from a rival fantasy team owner qualifies in any way as “speculation.” My interpretation of that guy’s comment leads me to believe he may actually have been joking. Perhaps if, say, comments like that were all over the message boards for weeks and weeks, then it would be a different story. But one guy – against whom you’re competing – ribbing you a little bit for making what turned out to be an incredible fantasy selection? Sorry. Doesn’t really pass the “speculation” test to me. So I would find it helpful if you could cite or even link to some places either online or elsewhere that have been addressing this (non-)issue before your article.

    Thank you in advance for that, and for your exhaustive research (seriously, it was very interesting and informative).

    • @Dan, thanks for the comment.

      You are correct, my post is probably the first actual blog to post about it, but I’ve seen reference to the discussion on numerous message board-type sites, including:

      http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090523143723AAZYydZ

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/182858-raul-ibanez-is-a-freak

      http://slumz.boxden.com/showthread.php?t=1247537

      And as I said, my original goal was to try and debunk my buddy and these other commenters. But when I was not able to do so, at least from an objective standpoint I was comfortable with, I let the speculation hang there — while stating that I personally was withholding judgment on it.

      Your questions are certainly valid, and whether or message board and blog comments suggest an “ongoing debate” is itself up for debate. To me it did, which is why I set out to the do the post in the first place. As a baseball fanatic, I was honestly disapppointed to find out that I genuinely could not ignore the speculation I’d read and that was in my own head.

      It’s no so much an indictment of Raul Ibanez (although it’s been taken as such, and I can certainly see why) but more a description of a microcosm of the bigger issue, which is a general lack of trust in the great performances we see in baseball.

      I hope that answers your question.

    • PhilsFanForLife says:

      @Dan, What planet are you living on as “a baseball fan” and “a Phillies phan” that you had not wondered or heard others speculate as to whether or not PEDs might have something to do with Ibanez’ recent surge? Honestly. After Romero, ARoid and then Ramirez. Could any reasonable person really not validly raise the question? You probably think Roger Clemens is a man of his word. You must be living in the same land of denial in which the MLB, the Team Owners and the Players Union have been living in over the past 15 years. The same state of denial and self-imposed ignorance that has allowed the MLB to become a truly fraudulent enterprise. I hope as much as anyone that Raul is clean. And that Griffey is clean. And Ryan Howard. But who in their right mind can trust any of these guys so long as the Players Union, the Owners and the MLB refuse to implement a rigorous drug testing protocol, including random blood testing and major punishment, including lifetime bans for second failed test. The NFL does it and it has worked. You would think that if Raul, Howard, Griffey and others are clean, now would be the time for them to step up and push the Players Union to agree to accept a tough drug-testing protocol so that the truly clean players in the league could, over time, separate themselves from the “taint”. If that doesn’t happen then I guess I will have to continue tempering my “enjoyment” of sharing the baseball experience with my 3 young sons (8,6 and 4) with continual lectures on how it is wrong to cheat, lie and and use drugs and that baseball heroes should never be seen as role models because you just don’t know which ones have truly earned their status. – – Frustrated Phils Fan

  10. It’s a good thing your not from Philly. What a crock of #$*@ this is.

    • @Sean, THANK THE LORD JEROD IS NOT FROM PHILLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      p.s. YOU’RE not from Philly, not YOUR not from Philly.

      • @Jordan, awww, so sweet of you to stick up for your man, Jerod.

        • @jc, I am sticking up for him too.

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  11. “JRod”,

    I want to try to keep this as professional as possible. But this article is poor journalism. Let me explain why.

    1) Awful Title. Okay, that might be nitpicking but from one journalist to another, it’s way too wordy and doesn’t flow. It gets your point across that the speculation may be unfair, but that’s not necessarily the place to make that point.

    2) Very irresponsible. You say in your comments that the more you think about it, the lineup likely is the major effect, and that you wanted to research more and write more, but you didn’t have time this morning. If that’s the case, you cannot publish your article. We, as journalists, can cause a major effect on a large number of people–which is one of the most beautiful things about being a journalist. But at the same time, it is quite dangerous and we must be sure to be responsible and hold ourselves to a high moral standard. As you see, your article has caused a major uproar because it soils the name of a great man.

    3) Subpar objectivity. While you do good research on the parks, you seem to shrug off the difference in the parks. Okay, CBP isn’t what you thought it was, but at the same time, Safeco is in the bottom 5 (or close) almost every year, where as CBP is in the top half each season. That, my friend, is a significant difference. Again, the lineups were mentioned. This is the first good lineup Ibanez has every played in. Not in Seattle, nor in Kansas City has he ever been able to see the kind of pitches he does in Philly. Surely, that will change as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers thus far. And using poor pitchers in big parks should only further the evidence that Ibanez isn’t using PEDs, right?

    4) Your conclusion. You concluded that nothing could be accurately concluded from this evidence. So, to be frank, what the hell was the point of the article? To start speculation? To say “he could be, but we don’t have a damn clue”? Alex Sanchez. Jorge Piedra. Elizer Alfonso. That’s all I have to say.

    You’re probably sitting there, wondering why the hell this article has caused such a ruckus. I bet it’s not even your most controversial piece you’ve ever written. But let me tell you something, many times it’s the pieces we least expect that have the greatest effect.

    Hopefully, you’ll keep this in mind from now on and write more responsible articles and think about each article before you publish it.

  12. Honestly, I don’t think that the numbers put up by Ibanez are that surprising. A poster on a message board I frequent posted,

    “He went from Seattle to Philly which are opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of pitching versus hitting. And the Phils have had a disproportionate amount of games versus the Nationals. 6 of his 20 homers came at the expense of the Nationals.

    So, Raul has had two homers at yanks, two at cincy, 4 at washington, 2 vs washington, one at colorado.

    So to me, it speaks to not looking at what actually happened. He has 8 at home (hitters park) 12 away. Only problemis 5 of those away dingers came at extreme hitters parks, and 4 came at the expense of the nats. So given hsi skill set and where he has played thus far, it seems reasonable to think the league switch is what helped him.”

    I really think that the league change and hitters park he now plays in is the only explanation for his numbers. Raul is an upstanding player, one of the most humble players I’ve ever been around and/or followed, and I find it extremely hard to believe PED’s had anything to do with it, let alone the fact that he has passed every test thrown his way.

  13. Congrats on your 15 minutes moron!

    • @Mike, YOU REALLY THINK THIS IS WHAT THE ARTICLE WAS ALL ABOUT?????? YOU ARE THE MORON!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • @Jordan, I agree 100% with Mike…this was a true 15-minutes-of-glory stunt. I hope he enjoys it now, before the lawsuit comes his way!

        • @Josh, Sorry Josh, but YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT either. Try reading the article, if you can read and comprehend at the same time.

      • @Jordan, WHATEVER…I DID read and comprehend the article, @$$HOLE! F— You!

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  14. Im sure your aim was not to start this whole thing and if it was to get your 15 minutes of fame then shame on you…but unfortunately when you say something online now it gets blown way out of proportion so you just gotta keep an eye out for what you say…Ibanez has always been a good hitter throughout his career and its obvious that having a good lineup around him now is allowing him to hit like this and not the PEDs that you are suggesting are doing this so check your facts first bud

  15. your an idiot…. I hope he sues you for slander. Sometimes guys just have a good year you moron. maybe someone should poke around your world to see what you do.. You are whats wrong with sports. You and the morons that listen to you.

  16. I’m glad you did research on your column to give it authenticity, however your entire column is misleading. You’re column should be about how he has taken advantage of a new League and some horrific pitching to inflate his numbers.

    As someone that actually lives in the Philadelphia area and has watched most of the games this season, he has had the privilege of playing th Washington Nationals a dozen times this season. High School baseball players could put up Ibanez-like numbers against Nationals’ pitching.

    If you used some common sense in your article, your article would have been about him taking advantage of bad pitching rather then a half-assed attempt to link him to PED’s.

  17. RAuuuuul says:

    Dude, Really?

    You are entitled to your opinion, that’s fine. But honestly, you epitomize all thats wrong with blogging sports. Now I challange you to take accountability. Man up, you are being called out by the man you questioned in the first place. He deserves a public apology by you.

    The man has been a class act in character since his career started. He has a couple of good months and you throw him under the steroid bus? And then back it up with weak statistics. Whats wrong with you?

    The worst is you make this accusation and then take the stance of “Im not saying its true, but it could be.” If your gonna call him out at least take a hard stance. Your obviously not a journalist, but as a baseball fan and someone who claims to love the game you have serioulsy dissapointed me.

    Ugghh! Really dude? Now Raul has to field these questions for the rest of the year. Its already on ESPN.com. And over what? Field dimensions and something you spent an hour researching because you self admittedly had to go to work.

    Take into account lineups, pitching, hard work, swing, heck, short porches aren’t the only reason some parks give up alot of long balls. Look at new Yankee stadium. They’re blaming it on the weather among other things.

    SO DISSAPOINTED, I hope you got what you wanted when you started this blog, recognition. Be careful what you wish for.

  18. your an idiot and an ass. cool you write a blog, prick

    • @Matt, you tell em matt. when the midwest matters at all let us know….crawl back in your hole you ass.

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  19. Have fun in court! I hope you lose everything you own. Out there running your mouth like you know something. What a horrible article, guess its why you don’t have a real career and never will.

    • @Raul, You are running YOUR mouth like YOU know something. Go read the comics if Jerod’s article was too much for you. I don’t think that this is Jerod’s career. He is just a blogger with an opinion. Do you even realize that???? What a stupid thing for you to say that you “hope he loses everything he owns”. Wow I have to say you sound like an idiot!!!!!!!!!

      • @Jordan, No, he’s definitely not. You’re just backing up someone who’s using a shitty named article to gain recognition at something that’s not true. You’re just backing up the no-talent ass clown like your life depends on it. You sure do sound like a MO-RON

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