JRod To Be Guest on ESPN’s Outside the Lines Wednesday

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Quick post to let you all know that I’m going to be on Outside the Lines this afternoon. It starts at 3:00 CDT and I’m leaving right now to head down to the ESPN Studios in Dallas. They are doing a feature on the Raul Ibanez story.

This should be interesting and fun. It will be me, Ken Rosenthal, and John Gonzalez from the Philadelphia Inquirer I believe.

Wish me luck!



Raul Ibanez Addresses “Pathetic and Disgusting” Steroid Speculation

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This morning in the Philadelphia Inquirer, Jim Salisbury reports about an “angry” Raul Ibanez who is apparently a little peeved at “cowardly” comments made by a “42-year old blogger typing in his mother’s basement” regarding the possibility that Ibanez’s fast start in 2009 could be chemically enhanced.

Though not cited by name, I have to assume that the cowardly idiot in question is Midwest Sports Fans’ very own…me.

A quick recap of the events of the last 48 hours:

A couple of days ago my buddy posted on our fantasy baseball message board and strongly implied that Raul Ibanez must be on something to be playing so great, and that any objective analysis would come to this conclusion.

The next morning, I decided that my blog post for the day will be to prove my buddy wrong by finding as many objective objective statistics (park factors, lineup effects, etc.) as possible to explain Ibanez’s start and debunk the steroid speculation in a perfectly reasonable and objective way.

While researching and typing the article I realized that no matter how much I wanted to completely remove steroid and PED suspicion from my mind, it was impossible for me to do so. Whereas the discussion of Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field offered specific statistical evidence to draw conclusions from, there was nothing similar for me to draw such a conclusion from regarding steroid or PED use, save for the fact that Ibanez has not failed a test. And while this fact is certainly a strong testament to my personal opinion that he is clean (remember, all I said was that the speculation itself was justified, not that I personally thought he was using) many people would have said the same thing about Manny Ramirez during his ridiculous run last season: that he’d never failed a test. And speculation about him would have been (and perhaps was) shot down as unfair and “cowardly.”

Yet, look what happened at the start of this season to Ramirez.

Among other speculative statements in my article about Raul Ibanez, I wrote the following:

Thirdly, it’s time for me to begrudgingly acknowledge the elephant in the room: any aging hitter who puts up numbers this much better than his career averages is going to immediately generate suspicion that the numbers are not natural, that perhaps he is under the influence of some sort of performance enhancer. And since I was not able to draw any absolute parallels between his prodigously improved HR rate and his new ballpark’s hitter-friendliness, it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility that “other” performance enhancers could be part of the equation.

Sorry Raul Ibanez and Major League Baseball, that’s just the era that we are in — testing or no testing.

The next morning, yesterday, I woke up to find that John Gonzalez of the Philadelphia Inquirer has taken me to task for the article with his own rebuttal titled “A cheap shot at Ibanez.” You can view Gonzalez’s article here.

In all, somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-15 other sites linked to the Ibanez article here at MSF and at least one podcast discussed it for 5-10 minutes. I also began receiving hate mail from Philly fans calling me a “scumbag” and using the f-word like it’s a conjunction. (This does not really bother me though. I appreciate their passion and willingness to defend their guy. If someone had written a similar article about Jermaine Dye, though I like to think I would have used more tact, I would have argued with them too simply because he’s “my guy”.)

After exchanging a few pleasant emails with John Gonzalez about both of our articles, I contacted the Philadelphia Phillies to let them know about the article I’d written and to provide Midwest Sports Fans as a forum if Raul Ibanez or anyone from their organization had something to say in response. I was not sure if they choose to use Midwest Sports Fans as a forum for such a rebuttal, but I had not been trying to make nameless or faceless accusations completely out of reach from the one speculated against.

(And for the record, I’m a 27-year old professional writer and sports fanatic who contributes to Midwest Sports Fans, not a middle-aged guy banging away at a computer in my mother’s basement as was speculated in today’s Philadelphia Inquirer. But, since I speculated about Raul Ibanez, I don’t begrudge him for speculating about my existence. And like I hope to be about my steroid speculation, he was wrong about me. There is a lesson there somewhere I’m sure…)

Then this morning, upon arriving at the office and thinking the whole Ibanez thing was over, I opened up TweetDeck and noticed a decent amount of @JerodMSF messages from Philly fans such as this one: “The idiot who started it all was @JerodMSF. There was no “speculation” until he caused it with the stroke of a key.” The fan who tweeted that then sent me a link to today’s article in the Philadelphia Inquirer in which Raul Ibanez responds to my article.

Here are a few of the highlights:

“I’ll come after people who defame or slander me,” he said before last night’s game against the New York Mets. “It’s pathetic and disgusting. There should be some accountability for people who put that out there.”

“Unfortunately, I understand the environment we’re in and the events that have led us to this era of speculation,” he said. “At the same time, you can’t just walk down the street and accuse somebody of being a thief because they didn’t have a nice car yesterday and they do today. You can’t say that guy is a thief.”

“You can have my urine, my hair, my blood, my stool – anything you can test,” Ibanez said. “I’ll give you back every dime I’ve ever made” if the test is positive.

“I’ll put that up against the jobs of anyone who writes this stuff,” he said. “Make them accountable. There should be more credibility than some 42-year-old blogger typing in his mother’s basement. It demeans everything you’ve done with one stroke of the pen.

“Nobody is above the testing policy. We’ve seen that.”

“It’s unfair because this story should be about how hard work, determination, and desire trumps chemicals and shortcuts,” he said. “That should be the message: desire, character, work ethic. But some guy who doesn’t know me – one idiot – says something like this. They should be held accountable. It’s cowardly.”

And now I would like to offer up a response of my own.

Here is what I feel bad about: that my post became a lightning rod for speculation about a guy who very well could be totally clean, about a player who I like and admire, and about a player who by all accounts is a high character, hard working, team first player. And I do agree that such speculation is unfair as it relates specifically to Raul Ibanez, who has said in the past that he has never used PEDs and who has never once been implicated in any investigation or failed any test (which I acknowledged in my post).

If someone wants to call me cowardly or idiotic for bringing the question up and adding another public forum to an in-progress debate that may have no basis beyond speculation, I’m fine with that. When you publish content for public consumption about public figures who are real people, there are potential consequences. I’ll be honest and say that I did not consider the potential fallout from the article. I had a hypothesis to start from (that objective analysis would show no reason to suspect Ibanez) and did not find enough statistical evidence to support my hypothesis. So I wrote what I felt. And I feel bad that it’s cast a negative light on one specific individual who most likely does not deserve it.

Plus, I’ve found more statistical evidence since I wrote my article that further explains why Ibanez might be off to such a great start. This article shows how much better Ibanez is hitting with men on base, a situation he finds himself in more often with Philly than he did with Seattle. And the podcast I mentioned above that discussed the story, On the DL, brought up another good point: a lot of guys who were implicated for steroid use in the past did so in a contract year. Raul Ibanez already got his contract, which means there is ostensibly one less reason for him to feel incentive to use PEDs.

Had I considered these two facts when writing my article, its speculative nature probably would have been a bit less…although, admittedly, not completely removed.

So I’ll accept some level of accountability and offer a sincere apology to Raul Ibanez for advancing a public debate that, in his specific case, is very likely unfair and perhaps even unnecessary.

However, I’m not accepting complete blame and accountability for being the person who started this. I just tried to do my homework and write a cogent response to speculation I had heard from other sources, and to comment on what I considered to be a thought-provoking and engaging topic that was already being discussed publicly and privately. The post did not even receive much pub or traffic until it was mentioned in the Philadelphia Inquirer yesterday, but based on the response and the comments the post has received, it seems to me to have proven to be both thought-provoking and engaging.

And that, to me, is what the blogosphere is about.

Midwest Sports Fans is obviously not part of the mainstream media, but rather is a public forum for grassroots discussion of topics that are of interest to sports fans in general, and topics that are not typically discussed by the MSM. As one of the main contributors of MSF, it is my job to direct the discussion to topics that are interesting and compelling and that are not always simple regurgitations of what readers could find elsewhere. In addition to our regular schedule posts that are aimed at simply providing useful information, I try to open up discussions that I might have with my buddies sitting around the table at BW3s.

That is where blogs and MSM sites differ, in my opinion: blogs are, by their nature, more interactive and more open — and oftentimes more controversial — and are more reflective of the sensibilities of real sports fans; whereas the MSM is usually more geared towards reflecting the sensibilities of reporters and informing sports fans of the facts by which we develop our thoughts and opinions. The best MSM sites have learned how to incorporate the interactive, fan-centric qualities of blogs and vice versa, but clear distinctions still exist.

When you look at the post about Raul Ibanez in particular, what it was was not, I suppose, was “safe”. It is not the type of story you would expect to read in the Philadelphia Inquirer. But much of it was based on facts and was an attempt to research and be objective about a subject, PEDs in baseball, for which emotion and subjectivity so often frame the discussion. And as you will see if you read the comment thread, I am clearly open to opinions that differ from my own, and to arguments that attempt to further debunk the Ibanez steroid speculation (my original aim in the first place).

Whether or not I accomplished my goal of being objective, thought-provoking, and compelling is up to the individual people who read it. From my standpoint, minus the anger that Raul Ibanez clearly feels towards the post, which I regret, I think it was a success.

I will stand firm by the statement I made yesterday in my own post’s comment thread and in the comment sections of other posts that discussed the Ibanez story: if Raul Ibanez, or any other player who is speculated about for putting up great numbers, is upset at the speculation, the majority of their anger and venom in my opinion should be directed towards their past and present peers who used steroids and PEDs.

I’m not coming out of the blue by speculating that an guy in his upper-30s who is putting up numbers that are outrageous by his own career standards might have used PEDs. In fact, there are so many examples of this happening over the past decade that it’s mind-boggling. This is not Raul Ibanez’s fault, which is why I even described my own post as potentially unfair in its title.

However, in the immortal words of Rasheed Wallace, it is what it is and it do what it do.

If you’re an aging baseball player and you explode out of the gate with a HR rate more than double your career average, a great many baseball fans are going to wonder whether everything is on the up and up. The testing policy recently instituted by Major League Baseball has helped to mitigate that somewhat, but the mental and emotional conditioning to suspect steroids that baseball fans underwent took 10-15 years to develop. It’s not going away in 2 or 3.

And there is another place where Raul Ibanez and other players like him who are caught in the steroids crossfire can direct their anger and frustration: at their own union and Major League Baseball. Those two entities allowed steroids and PEDs to consume baseball and sully the reputation of all players, even the clean ones, by not agreeing to a testing policy sooner. I certainly blame both of them for my guarded and suspicious mindset when I see numbers like what Raul Ibanez is putting up this year. And honestly it pisses me off a little bit, and it should piss of Raul Ibanez and other such players who vehemently claim their innocence and who value their reputations and obviously are forthright in defending themselves.

I also will not apologize for my article in totality because I did not write it simply to drum up speculation or to attract attention. In no way was I trying to be sensational for the sake of being sensational. I was just trying to write an objective, well-researched article. I was being completely honest in how I felt about a very nuanced and complicated situation.

Over the past two decades we have repeatedly seen the media come under fire for falling in love with, for instance, the Big Mac-Sammy story back in the day and not asking more questions. Now, when those questions are asked, they are “cowardly” and “idiotic”? I understand why Raul Ibanez would specifically consider me to be these things, and perhaps I picked a terrible example to speculate about, but in the grand scheme of things isn’t this what baseball fans and even players were clamoring for?

Maybe I’m falsely lumping my own post into an altruistic bucket in which it does not belong, but I thought we had all agreed that there was a new responsibility on the part of the media and fans to not just blindly sit back and allow Major League Baseball to pull the wool over our eyes.

(A quick aside: Look, for the record, I don’t consider myself part of the mainstream media by any means. I’m a blogger, and while the lines are becoming more blurred, I believe the distinction still very much exists – but that bloggers do have a responsibility to be accountable even when, like me, they are just creating second hand reports for a grass roots audience, and opinions that are based on the work of others and statistics in the public domain, and publish them for public consumption.)

In an effort to be more vigilant and suspicious, won’t our speculation sometimes produce false positives? If Raul Ibanez really is clean, then my post included speculation — which, I remind you, did not originate on Midwest Sports Fans — that will turn out to have no basis. But in many, many other past and perhaps even future cases, taking a player of the same age with similar statistics, the speculation would have proven true. So I may have erred in the player I chose to analyze and speculate about, but — and here was one of the main points of my article — is such speculation really that unjustified?

In the specific case of Raul Ibanez, perhaps it is. But for baseball players in general, sadly I think that it is justified. I’m sorry, but the way I see it the burden is on the players and league to regain the trust of the fans; it is not the burden of the fans to once again place blind faith in the players and a league that for all intents and purposes gave its implied approval for steroid and PED use to run rampant.

I would have defended Manny Ramirez against anyone. He was one of those guys that I honestly thought never took steroids. Well, that rug got pulled right out from under me (and, granted, also proved that the new testing system is starting to work). If Raul Ibanez never fails a test, my trust in him will grow. But I’m not just giving it blindly anymore. Perhaps I should have been more careful in publicly expressing such thoughts about a specific individual — I’ll grant you that — but in general, I am not going to offer a comprehensive apology for discussing speculation that did originate on Midwest Sports Fans (look here, here, and here), especially when my initial goal was to objectively explain away the speculation in the first place.

So, in summation, I offer my apology to Raul Ibanez for upsetting him with the words I published two days ago. As I’ve said numerous times since posting it, I am a big fan of Raul Ibanez as a person and a player, I considered him a huge sleeper coming into this season and expected better numbers from him this year, and he is one of the primary reasons that my fantasy baseball team is at the top of my league’s standings. I certainly have nor had no vendetta against him.

But to the larger issue of simply saying that I believe the curious ongoing speculation about the reason for his torrid start is justified, I will not apologize; and though not all baseball fans will agree with me, especially Philly fans in this specific case, I do think that the majority of baseball fans will be on my side. We’ll see I guess.

It is my sincere hope, however, that as more time passes we as baseball fans we can find ourselves placing more trust in Major League Baseball’s testing system and, in turn, more trust in numbers like what we are seeing from Raul Ibanez thus far in 2009. Though I specifically discussed Raul Ibanez in my post, it is this more general conclusion that I came to: that sadly, we are simply not a place where such trust has been reestablished…yet.

I look forward to the day when we get there.



White Sox Define Drafting for Need by Selecting LSU CF Jared Mitchell in First Round of 2009 MLB Draft

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Jared Mitchell drafted by Chicago White SoxDrafts work perfectly for teams when need and value match up to make one name stand out above all others when their time on the clock comes. And although no draft is as unpredictable as the MLB draft — with every 1st rounder seemingly possessing equal potential for stardom or bustdom — White Sox fans have to be, at a minimum, pleasantly intrigued by the teams’ first round selection.

About an hour ago, in the first round of the 2009 MLB draft, the Chicago White Sox selected LSU 2-sport star CF/WR Jared Mitchell with their first round selection, #23 overall.

As the current White Sox continue to muddle through a disappointing June homestand that was supposed to put us on a path back toward the top of the AL Central, not the bottom, I will just say this: Jared Mitchell may never get past AA, but the thought of his potential — and the daydream of a real center fielder roaming the outfield grass on the South Side once again — has me smiling.

11 years later, the White Sox may have finally found a replacement for Mike Cameron.

(I know, I know. To be more apt I should say Aaron Rowand, who was tremendous in 2005 and who I miss a ton, as do the White Sox; but I always thought he had kind of a fruity batting stance and was more grit than grace — equal, if not better overall, than Cameron as a player, but not nearly as exciting.)

So who is Jared Mitchell and what are some quick-hit reasons why White Sox fans should be excited about him?

  • Not only does he play CF for LSU, but he also plays WR for the SEC-power Tigers. So I think we can safely assume that he has pretty awesome athletic ability.
  • Or, we can forget about assuming, and remember that when the Twins drafted Jared Mitchell in the 10th round back in 2006, he was widely viewed as the most athletic player in thJared Mitchell of LSU drafted by Chicago White Sox in 1st round of MLB draftat draft. Something tells me that his athletic ability has only become more pronounced after three years playing top-level college baseball and football.
  • He was drafted with the 23rd pick. If I’m not mistaken, I’m pretty sure the city of Chicago has had solid luck with dynamic athletes who were associated with the number 23. To borrow a phrase from The TMR, just sayin’…
  • He has helped lead LSU to a #3 seed in the 2009 College World Series.
  • In 203 ABs this season, Jared Mitchell has a .325 batting average that was improved by a strong late season surge when his team needed him the most.
  • More impressively, he led a solid LSU offense with 52 walks on the season, leading to a team-best .471 on-base percentage, proving that unlike the free-swinging Cameron he might actually have some discipline at the plate. (What he may not have, however, is Cameron’s power, although Mitchell did hit 9 homers on the year and slugged an impressive .557. And like Cameron, Mitchell does strike out a lot, as he has totaled 61 on the year. So about that plate discipline…)
  • Jared Mitchell also stole 35 bases in 44 attempts.

But as we know, teams do not necessarily draft on stats on high school/college production in the baseball draft. They choose on the basis of tools and potential. Here is what a few of the experts are saying about Jared Mitchell:

Jason Churchill, ESPN: Mitchell, a two-sport star at LSU, has one nick in his armor — strikeouts. Good athlete with plus speed and some power, draw walks and may be able to play center. has arm for right field and his focus on baseball now should help his development.

Jared Mitchell Player Card, ESPN: Mitchell can run and throw and has raw bat speed, all of which make him an appealing prospect even considering his age. His problem is at the plate, where his swing is long and his trigger — a toe tap and big stride that closes his stance — comes very late. When he squares something up, it takes off, but the squaring-up frequency isn’t high enough and his pitch recognition isn’t advanced enough yet to overcome the problems in his swing.

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus: Mitchell is loaded with that kind of dynamism. His performances have been mixed, but he has a good approach at the plate and leads the Tigers with 33 walks, and he has outstanding speed and plenty of power potential, making up for a sub-standard batting average with an impressive line of .310/.470/.595. His projection alone could move him into the first half of the first round according to one scouting director, who added, “you watch him play, and you get the feeling that he’s really just beginning to scratch the surface of what he can do.”

More Kevin Goldstein, via South Side Sox: In A Perfect World He Becomes: He has true impact potential, but comes with a fair share of risk.

White Sox scouting director Doug Laumann via the Tribune: “One of the things we tried to accomplish in this draft was to find a high-ceiling, athletic-type of player,” Laumann said. “We certainly weren’t going to sacrifice the ability of some guys just to get that. But as it turned out, he was the one guy who the best player on the board and who we were exactly looking for.”

And in the final Baseball Prospectus draft rankings by Goldstein, he had Jared Mitchell rated as the #1 college hitter. I’d say that’s a pretty solid endorsement.

Once again, I will reiterate, there is probably an equal chance that Jared Mitchell becomes a Major League star, or a serviceable 4th outfielder, or never gets past AA. You just never know. From the scouting reports it sounds like Mitchell is a very talented but raw player. For example, Jared Mitchell clearly has speed and cover ground in the outfield, although he purportedly does not have great instincts. Mitchell also appears to struggle somewhat to make contact, but yet is able to compensate for a high K rate by drawing walks and taking advantage of his speed on the basepaths.

While there is no guarantee of Jared Mitchell ever roaming centerfield on a consistent basis for the White Sox, there certainly appears to be enough talent and production in his track record to get a little bit excited. And one thing that everyone seems to like about Mitchell is that much of his talent is undeveloped. We all know how much time and preparation goes into playing football at the college level, especially in the SEC. Most analysts seem to think that Mitchell’s development will rapidly advance one he focuses his full attention on baseball.

Let’s hope so. Even though that White Sox have had solid players like Mike Cameron and Aaron Rowand in center for brief stints over the past 12 years, whenever I think of centerfield for the Sox I tend to focus more on the struggles of Dewayne Wise, Brian Anderson, McKay Christenson (remember him?), and others who had no business being starters on a contending club. At least for tonight, Jared Mitchell offers a glimmer of hope similar to what KVB just texted me: “Good. Maybe we will shore up our CF problems by 2011.”

And that will be important for White Sox fans to keep in mind. Even though both Gordon Beckham and Jared Mitchell were college players, there appears to be no comparison between their immediate Major League readiness upon being drafted. Beckham was drafted last season and I remember people saying that he was developed and mature enough to be promoted to the big league club immediately. Then he almost made the team out of Spring Training this year, and is now on the South Side here at the start of June. Mitchell, however, appears to be a good 2-3 years away from even thinking about the bigs, so excitement should be tempered for any type of Beckham-like ascent into OzJared Mitchell, LSU, drafted by Chicago White Soxzie’s lineup.

And even the great Gordon Beckham may not have quite been ready for prime time, as he did not get his first hit until his 14th at-bat.

Regardless, Jared Mitchell is the type of high ceiling, potential impact player that solid farm systems and memorable drafts are built upon. And as SI.com chronicled earlier today, the draft has not exactly been the most shining example of the White Sox solid overall decade as a franchise.

But tonight we forget about all of the past draft failures by the White Sox and ignore the very real possibility that Jared Mitchell may never turn out to be a great player. Rather, we can all revel in the sports fans’ most indulgent and satisfying of delicacies: the omnipotent power of promise and potential on draft day.

For at least tonight, we can all enjoy the promise and potential of Jared Mitchell.

And then starting tomorrow, let’s just hope he and the White Sox can turn that promise and potential into the most important “p” of all: production at the Major League level.



UFC 99 Betting Preview: Main Card, Date, Location, Odds & Predictions

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UFC betting is reaching a fever pitch with UFC 100 coming up next month, but first, UFC 99 takes place this Saturday in Cologne, Germany.

Here are the particulars, via the UFC 99 page on Wikipedia:

UFC 99 Preview

  • UFC 99 Date: Saturday, June 13, 2009
  • UFC 99 Location: Cologne, Germany
  • UFC 99 TV: Pay Per View

UFC 99 Main Card:

  • Catchweight: Rick Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva
  • Heavyweight: Cheick Kongo vs Cain Velasquez
  • Welterweight: Mike Swick vs Ben Saunders
  • Welterweight: Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy
  • Lightweight: Spencer Fisher vs Caol Uno
  • Heavyweight: Mostapha Al-turk vs Mirko Filipovic

(Follow the link to view the UFC 99 preliminary card.)

Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva are the headliners for the UFC’s first trip to Germany, but there are also a couple of other MMA betting bouts to consider in your offshore sportsbook.

——————–

RICH FRANKLIN VS WANDERLEI SILVA ODDS AND PREDICTION

Franklin (24-4-0-1), the former middleweight champ, is a slight -140 sports wagering favorite against Silva (22-9-1-1), who has lost four of his last five fights. This will be held at a catchweight of 195 pounds, where Franklin will have a reach advantage but Silva may have a power edge. Franklin is coming off a split-decision loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 93, which was his first loss to an American as his three previous losses had come at the hands of Brazilian fighters (two to Anderson Silva, one to Lyoto Machida). Silva will surely come out swinging for the fences, while Franklin will do the same, but he has an edge on the ground as well.

Franklin-Silva UFC 99 Prediction: Rich Franklin. He’s more well-rounded and Silva has lost a step.
UFC 99 Preview: Betting Odds and Predictions, Main Card, Date, Location


CAIN VELASQUEZ VS CHEICK KONGO ODDS AND PREDICTION

Cain Velasquez (5-0) is a -200 favorite in your sportsbook against Cheick Kongo (14-4-1), and the 26-year-old Velasquez is one of the top up-and-comers in MMA, as all five of his fights have come by knockout, four of which came in the first round. Both of these fighters have extreme knockout power, and it’s difficult to imagine this fight going more than two rounds. Kongo replaces Heath Herring, who beat Kongo at UFC 82, and if heUFC 99 Preview: Betting Odds and Predictions, Main Card, Date, Location manages to beat Velasquez, he’ll fight the winner of the Brock Lesnar-Frank Mir heavyweight title bout which takes place at UFC 100.

Velasquez-Kongo UFC 99 Prediction: Cheick Kongo. Velasquez will be a star but he’s not ready to face a fighter of Kongo’s caliber.

MIKE SWICK VS BEN SAUNDERS ODDS AND PREDICTION

Mike Swick (13-2) is the UFC betting favorite for this welterweight tilt at -225 over Ben Saunders (7-0-2), and both are known for appearing on the “Ultimate Fighter” television show. Swick won his fight in the first UF season, dropping Alex Schoenauer after 20 seconds to earn the nickname “Quick.” Saunders defeated Dan Barrera in the sixth UF season, and he’s improved each fight since joining UFC. Both have kickboxing backgrounds, while Swick has more power, but Saunders is more well-rounded. If he can get Swick on the ground, Saunders could be in line for a UFC betting upset.

Swick-Saunders UFC 99 Prediction: Ben Saunders. This could be a big step in a special career.



Links of the Day (via @JerodMSF on Twitter) – 2009-06-09

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Ozzie Guillen Is Right: Offensive Woes are Frustrating

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Ozzie Guillen comments after White Sox-Tigers gameIt is that time of year on the South side of Chicago. I don’t know if I am just having deja vu, but after two months of not holding a solid lead (or any lead) in the AL Central, the Sox players are getting threatened with change by management more than the Democrats preached change while winning the 2008 election.

“Somebody has to change because if we don’t do what we’re supposed to do, I’ll take the blame because that’s my job,” Guillen said.

Ozzie Guillen was furious with his offensive production after the game one loss to the Tigers on Monday afternoon’s double dip.

Watching the White Sox inability to lay down bunts, sac fly a man home, and hit with runners in scoring position is excruciating pain for me. I can only imagine how this boils the blood of Ozzie’s spicy Latin temperament, especially if you remember the hard working, smart, aggressive player Guillen was when he played (1985-2000).

“If this was the 1980s, [none] of these guys would be in the big leagues right now, because if you hit .210-.230 and you can’t execute, I don’t think you should be out here,” Guillen said.

He’s right. This is not one of those “laugh out loud-Ozzie’s mad-here is some video and quotes” articles (which is not as bad as Jay Mariotti’s hater columns). This is to show Ozzie is right.

“When you can’t bunt, hit-and-run, squeeze and move the guy over, you better hit 40 home runs and drive in 140.”

Ozzie’s right because our offense is only capable of half of that: Home runs. That is bad news because nobody on this team is on pace for 40 dingers or pace for anything higher than 110 RBI’s, except maybe Jermaine Dye. And to win consistently you would still need more than one guy doing that.

ozzie guillen comments after tigers-white sox game - Josh FieldsOzzie did not call out anyone individually but Josh Fields, and Alexei Ramirez could be put in that category.

Fields is getting less playing time with Gordon Beckham being called up and before the game Josh was openly questioning why management is so impatient with him. Fields responded with an 0-4 day and a costly error on a routine ground ball that eventually scored the Tigers’ game winning run in the 9th. Before that Chris Getz was on third after a 1-out triple and Fields grounded out to Brandon Inge at third and Getz had to hold and was left there stranded.

(Editor’s Note: Our friends over at Sox Machine have a great take on Josh Fields’ past, present, and future with the White Sox.)

Oh and Alexei? Simply put he can bunt for a hit but has to be the worst sacrifice bunting number 2 hitter in the majors right now. He missed a bunt attempt on a 1-0 pitch located in the left handed batter’s box across from him. WGN’s Hall of Fame director James Angio immediately cut to Guillen in the dugout slamming his fist and holding his head down in embarrassment.

“I wish I was home and had some fun,” Guillen said. “It’s not easy to walk to the park and play and hope you can win the game. I’m a competitor. I like to win. When you lose … I think I got spoiled in the past by winning. And I don’t like to lose.”

Things were going well last Monday entering a home stand after sweeping Greinke and the Royals in their awesome, newly renovated stadium. Today, the White Sox have already had nine straight at US Cellular in this stretch. This chart provides the cold hard numbers about the struggles to score runs.

Home Streak Stats

TEAM R w/ HRs by Total Runs Team LOB RISP Result
OAKLAND 4 of 6 7 1-6 win
OAKLAND shutout 6 0-4 loss
OAKLAND 2 of 3 4 0-4 loss
OAKLAND shutout 6 0-10 loss
CLEVELAND shutout 4 0-4 loss
CLEVELAND 1 of 4 5 1-6 win
CLEVLAND 3 of 4 9 1-11 loss
DETROIT 3 of 4 8 0-6 loss
DETROIT 4 of 6 5 2-4 win
TOTALS 17-26 (65%) 54 5-55 (.090) 3-6

65 percent of your runs relying on home runs are bad news when you’re batting .090 (!!) with runners in scoring position and get shutout three times. If anything they are lucky to have three wins in nine games when you think about how good the pitching staffs of Oakland and Detroit are. On the same note, we scored 8 runs in three games against one of the worst staffs in baseball in Cleveland.

In the 80s Steve Perry said, “Don’t stop believing!”

ozzie guillen comments after tigers-white sox game

White Sox broadcaster Hawk Harrelson has been saying, “This is a good team, playing really bad.”

Or you can go with Ozzie’s outlook, “Good teams don’t hold meetings, horse sh*t teams hold meetings. We have to have a lot of meetings right now.”

Right now, Ozzie is right but Steve Perry is always right. Then again, no Journey psych outs…please:



Report: Chicago White Sox Call Up Top Pitching Prospect Aaron Poreda

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Aaron Poreda called up from AA by Chicago White SoxKVB just texted me and said that 670 The Score in Chicago is reporting that Aaron Poreda has been called up by the Chicago White Sox. This short post on South Side Sox, purportedly from Poreda’s Facebook page, seems to suggest the same.

I profiled Aaron Poreda a few months back. He was the 1st round pick of the White Sox (25th overall) back in 2007 and was rated the #1 prospect in the organization before the arrival of Gordon Beckham. If Poreda is in fact called up, that would mean that the defending AL Central champs have brought their two most prized minor league possessions to the bigs before we’re even out of June.

That either means that Poreda and Beckham are awesome, or is a signal of just how much the White Sox have struggled to be consistent this year. Or, more likely, it means both.

So far this year, the 22-year old Poreda is 5-4 in AA Birmingham with a 2.39 ERA in 11 starts. He has thrown 64.1 innings and is averaging more tha 1 K per inning (69 Ks total) with 35 walks. And while the walk number seems kind of high, here is a number that could portend good things for Poreda pitching in the launching pad that is U.S. Cellular Field: he’s only given up 1 HR.

KVB just texted me again and said that 670 said that while there are still questions to be answered regarding the Poreda call-up (like who will be sent down to make room), this could be a sign that Bartolo Colon could soon be released or traded.

In other White Sox news, we also signed former 2005 World Series hero, and good friend of Ozzie Guillen, Freddy Garcia to a minor league deal.

More to come.

Update: Confirmation on the above report that the White Sox have called up Aaron Poreda from ESPN Chicago:

The White Sox are calling up pitching prospect Aaron Poreda today from Double-A Birmingham, according to ESPNChicago.com’s Bruce Levine.

Poreda, 22, first broke the news on his Facebook page, according to Levine, who later confirmed the move with a source close to the situation.



The Curious Case of Raul Ibanez: Steroid Speculation Perhaps Unfair, but Great Start in 2009 Raising Eyebrows

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Update: On Wednesday morning, Raul Ibanez responded harshly to the post below in the Philadelphia Inquirer. Follow the link to read a detailed description of Ibanez’s response and our response to Raul Ibanez and the general debate about steroid speculation in baseball.

Heading into this year’s fantasy baseball drafts, there was one name I was targeting more than any other as a mid-round steal: Raul Ibanez. I was not alone in this assessment either. Ibanez had been flying totally under the radar in Seattle, where he had quietly become one of the most consistent #2/#3 fantasy OFs in baseball. Look at his numbers from the last three years he was in the Great Northwest playing in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field:

  • 2006: 33 HR, 123 RBI, 103 R, .289 BA, .869 OPS
  • 2007: 21 HR, 105 RBI, 80 R, .291 BA, .831 OPS
  • 2008: 23 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R, .293 BA, .837 OPS

That is just solid and consistent production all the way around.

With Ibanez moving to the much more hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park by way of his signing with the Philadelphia Phillies in the offseason, most fantasy prognosticators had Ibanez penciled in as the type of grizzled veteran who could see a slight bump in his already good numbers by playing half of his games in a ballpark more conducive to offensive production and all of his games in a better lineup.

I knew heading into my draft that if I came out of it with Ibanez as my 3rd OF, drafted somewhere in rounds 8-10, that I would be feeling pretty good about my team.

In the league I pay the most attention to, my first five picks were OF Carlos Beltran, 3B Evan Longoria, SP Roy Halladay, OF Jason Bay, and 1B Adrian Gonzlez. Obviously each of those guys has had a great start to the season and are primary reasons why my team has been in first place all year…until I got waxed this week and fell to second, 2.0 games behind the league leader.

But my best pick in terms of value was nailing my pre-draft target and getting Raul Ibanez in the 9th round. As all baseball fans, fantasy or otherwise, know by now, Raul Ibanez has been off to a torrid start in 2009. Just look at the numbers:

  • 2009 (55 games): 19 HR, 54 RBI, 46 R, .329 BA, 1.062 OPS

In fact, the 37-year old Ibanez has been so good that it has led to the inevitable speculation that his improvement may be attributable to factors other than his new lineup, playing in a better ballpark for hitters, or additional maturation as a hitter. In this day and age of suspicion at any significant jump in numbers, even over small sample sizes, it is what it is – and such speculation is to be expected.

In fact, this morning I woke up to the following message board post in the league in which I own Ibanez. (FYI, my team name is Hitting Crean-Up, hence the reference to “crean”):

sorry, crean, but i must call bullshit on raul ibanez. you’re an objective man so i am sure you’ll love it while it lasts, but do not intend on it lasting forever. of course crazier things have been sustainable.

where have we seen this before? a recent 37th birthday is celebrated with a career year in home runs??? prior to this year ibanez has a career high of 33 home runs in one season and no other season of his 14 played with greater than 24 home runs!!! during his previous career year ibanez hit a HR roughly every 19 at bats and this year his pace is roughly every 11.

i thought they were testing???

My initial reaction was to get defensive and reply by saying that Ibanez’s numbers in 2009 were based on what I assumed were significant differences in ballpark factors between Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field. Ibanez, I surmised, a left-handed hitter, was simply taking advantage of the lefty-friendly dimensions of Citizen’s Bank Park that had helped to make Ryan Howard such a beast.

However, I resisted the urge to fire back a gut-reaction retort and decided to do a little investigation. I figured that before responding I should put together my case that there were perfectly logical reasons to explain Ibanez’s breakout that would help counter any steroid speculation.

First, I looked at the dimensions of both Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field, courtesy of BaseballFanatics.net. Here they are:

Ballpark Dimension Comparison

Park Left Left-Center Center Right-Center Right
Citizens Bank Park 329 355 401 357 330
Safeco Field 331 375 405 365 326

As you can see, Citizens Bank Park has shorter dimensions to every part of the park expect down the right field line, where it is four feet longer than Safeco. Clearly, these dimensions are part of the reason why Citizens’ Bank Park is considered such a great hitters’ park.

However, I have to say that I was surprised when I looked at the Park Factor rankings on ESPN.com. I expected Citizens Bank Park to be among the top 5 best hitters’ parks in baseball, just based on reputation. That is not the case, at least according to the park factors metrics used by ESPN (which are explained if you click the links below).

Below is a park factor comparison (for runs and HRs) between Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field. 1.000 is average; higher than 1.000 means the park favors hitters, lower than 1.000 means the park favors pitchers.


Park Factor Comparison

Park Runs HR Overall Rank
2009      
Citizens Bank Park 0.981 1.023 15
Safeco Field 0.840 0.876 27
       
2008      
Citizens Bank Park 1.029 1.022 15
Safeco Field 0.932 0.900 24
       
2007      
Citizens Bank Park 1.034 1.418 13
Safeco Field 0.948 1.002 19
       
2006      
Citizens Bank Park 1.063 1.201 8
Safeco Field 0.881 0.888 27

Conclusions? For me, I was surprised that Citizens Bank Park did not rate higher. Clearly it is a better hitters’ park than Safeco Field, but the differences in the HR factor do not account for the significant jump in Ibanez’s HR totals now that he has made the switch.

From 2006-2008, Raul Ibanez’s ratio for AB/HR was 23.8, including his career year in 2006 when he hit 33 HRs. In his home games this season, Ibanez has hit 8 HR in 93 AB, which is a HR every 11.6 ABs. Based on the four-year averages of the HR factors of Citizens Bank Park (1.165) and Safeco (0.9225), we would expect Ibanez’s HR rate at home to increase 21%. It has improved much more than 21% however, more than doubling so far in 2009.

But Ibanez is not just taking advantage of his home ballpark.

In his road games this season, Ibanez has hit 11 HR in 126 ABs, which is good for a HR every 11.45 ABs. So his HR rate is actually slightly better on the road, which I did not expect since my gut-reaction thinking was that Ibanez was simply enjoying the more hitter-friendly home cooking at Citzens Bank Park.

So in actuality, and in opposition of my initial hypothesis, through the relatively small sample size of 55 games it is impossible to say that Ibanez’s prodigious jump in HR/AB has been solely a factor of his new ballpark.

What else could explain Ibanez’s bump in power? Considering that 11 of his 19 HRs have come on the road, perhaps we should explore the ballparks where those home runs have been hit. And to do that, I visited a site that will be fascinating for other stat geeks like me: HitTrackerOnline.com. I sorted the Phillies’ 2009 HRs by name to do a closer analysis of Ibanez’s HRs this season.

Here are the ballparks where Raul Ibanez has hit HRs this season, with their current 2009 HR factor in parentheses.

  • Citizens Bank Park: 8 (1.021)
  • Nationals Park: 4 (.808)
  • Yankee Stadium: 2 (1.563)
  • Great American Ballpark: 2 (1.182)
  • PETCO Park: 2 (0.736)
  • Coors Field: 1 (0.943)

As you can see, Raul Ibanez has enjoyed success at three of the most notorious hitters’ parks in baseball: the new Yankee Stadium, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, and Coors Field (though the overall HR numbers at Coors are down this year). Nationals Park and PETCO Park have always been known as more pitcher-friendly, and considering that 6 of Ibanez’s HRs have come at these parks, it seems to balance out the effect of his 5 HRs at NY, CIN, and CO.

But let’s again take a closer look. These are the pitchers that Ibanez has hit HRs off of at Nationals Park and PETCO Park, with their season ERA in parenthesis:

  • Daniel Cabrera (5.85 ERA)
  • Scott Olsen – twice (7.24 ERA)
  • Saul Rivera (8.49 ERA)
  • Josh Geer (5.60 ERA)
  • Joe Thatcher (4.50 ERA)

So Raul Ibanez has feasted on terrible pitching, even in parks that are tougher to hit home runs in. What does this mean? I’m not really sure. Most hitters obviously will perform better against bad pitching than they do against good pitching. But over the small sample size we’ve seen through 55 games, perhaps Ibanez has seen more than his normal share of bad pitching and has taken advantage of it. I don’t have time to dig into this any more this morning, so I’ll just leave that hanging there as a potential explanation for a portion of Ibanez’s HR and OPS explosion.

And even though Ibanez’s aggregate numbers in 2009 are incredible, there are signs that he is starting to slow down a bit. So far in June, through 32 ABs Ibanez has 2 HRs. This rate of 16 ABs per HR is a little bit closer to his career average, and to the improvement we might have expected based on the differential in HR factor between his new home park and his old home park. While it’s a terribly small sample size to draw too many conclusions from, but it is one more piece of data we can look at.

I also wondered whether Raul Ibanez was historically a fast starter, and perhaps that was helping to contribute to his fast start. Look at Ibanez’s career splits, however, and you see that this is not the case. Ibanez’s career pre-All Star break HR rate is 1 every 23.9 ABs. His career post-All Star break HR rate is 1 every 26.0 ABs. So he has slightly more power during the first half of the season, but the difference is not significant enough to explain his torrid start in 2009. Besides, his BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS are all slightly better during the second half of the season.

Now that we have gone ’round and ’round with all of these stats — my attempt to be an “objective man” in response to the message board comment from this morning — what can we conclude?

First off, we can conclude that I made one hell of a draft pick. Whatever the explanation for Ibanez’s great start, I’m just glad it’s happening on my roster and not on somebody else’s.

Secondly, we have to acknowledge the obvious caveat that 55 games is not a full season and is still a relatively small sample size. Ibanez could very easily slow down and finish with 30-35 HRs (which is actually my expectation for what will happen), which would still be an above average season based on his career stats, but certainly not as eye-popping and outside the mean as the pace he is on right now. The truth is that even I, the most ardent Ibanez supporter heading into 2009, do not expect him to maintain his current 600 AB pace and hit 52 home runs.

Thirdly, it’s time for me to begrudgingly acknowledge the elephant in the room: any aging hitter who puts up numbers this much better than his career averages is going to immediately generate suspicion that the numbers are not natural, that perhaps he is under the influence of some sort of performance enhancer. And since I was not able to draw any absolute parallels between his prodigously improved HR rate and his new ballpark’s hitter-friendliness, it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility that “other” performance enhancers could be part of the equation.

Sorry Raul Ibanez and Major League Baseball, that’s just the era that we are in — testing or no testing.

Personally, I am withholding judgment until we see a full seasons’ worth of stats. Many players put together terrific runs of 150-250 ABs in the midst of otherwise normal or just slightly above average (based on their career numbers) seasons. Ibanez’s terrific 219 AB run since Opening Day is just magnified right now because it came at the start of the season.

Maybe he was energized by joining the defending World Series champs.

Maybe he is seeing better pitchers by joining a lineup that includes Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino.

Maybe he is in the midst of a run of good luck in which he’s seeing good pitches to hit at above-average hitters parks and finding himself facing terrible pitchers even at the tougher hitters parks he’s played in.

Maybe Raul Ibanez is simply a “freak”, and has been a late bloomer with a career track that refuses to follow the norm, as explained in this Bleacher Report post.

Maybe the 37-year old Ibanez trained differently this offseason with the pressure of joining the Phillies’ great lineup and is in the best shape he’s ever been in.

And maybe that training included…

Well, you know where that one was going, but I’d prefer to leave it as unstated speculation. However, if Ibanez ends up hitting 45-50 homers this year, you can bet that I won’t be the only one raising the question. And judging by my buddy’s message board post this morning, and questions like this in public forums, people already are.

For the record, Ibanez has denied ever using steroids. Back in 2007 when former Mariners OF Shane Monahan said that the clubhouse culture in Seattle led him to use steroids, Ibanez and Jamie Moyer came out and publicly lambasted Monahan while denying that steroids had ever been a presence in the Mariners clubhouse. Of course, as well all know, explicit denials of steroid use don’t really mean a whole hell of a lot these days.

It will be a wonderful day when we can see a great start by a veteran like Ibanez and not immediately jump to speculating about whether steroids or PEDs are involved. We certainly are not at that point yet, however.

And whether we ever get there remains to be seen.

But whatever the reason for Raul Ibanez’s oustanding run this far in 2009, I hope to see it continue. Regardless of why it’s happening, it’s happening. And like I said before, better that it happens on my roster than somebody else’s.

Update 6/9: At Philly.com this morning, John Gonzalez takes me to task a bit for firing what he deems as a “cheap shot” at Raul Ibanez. Here is an excerpt from his article, and the link if you want to read it all.

The MSF post, written by the previously undiscovered poet “JRod,” noted that Ibanez has bashed the majority of his 19 homers at hitter-friendly parks like the new Yankee Stadium, Great American Ball Park in Cincy, and Citizens Bank Park. It also conceded that Ibanez has taken advantage of some really terrible pitchers – guys like Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and Saul Rivera, all of whom have badly bloated ERAs.

Then JRod dismissed all the evidence of opportunism, pivoted like a second baseman turning a double play, and fired his conclusion into the mitts of conspiracy theorists and amateur drug testers everywhere: “Any aging hitter who puts up numbers this much better than his career averages is going to immediately generate suspicion that the numbers are not natural, that perhaps he is under the influence of some sort of performance enhancer. . . . Maybe the 37-year-old Ibanez trained differently this off-season with the pressure of joining the Phillies’ great lineup and is in the best shape he’s ever been in. And maybe that training included. . . . Well, you know where that one was going, but I’d prefer to leave it as unstated speculation.”

Yeah, except when you put the words “under the influence” in close proximity to “performance enhancer,” that’s not really “unstated speculation.” That’s pretty much an updated version of the old “Hey, pal, have you stopped beating your wife yet?” trick.

In response, I don’t believe that I “dismissed all the evidence of opportunism.” I actually set out to disprove the speculation that Raul Ibanez’s great start was somehow PED-induced. And my conclusion was that it was impossble to conclude that from a simple examination of ballpark factors and lineup improvement, and that the reality of Major League Baseball today is that the unfortunate logical progression takes us all to the place we don’t want to go: thinking that an aging hitter putting up career-high numbers across the board might be chemically enhanced.

Fair for Raul Ibanez? Absolutely not. Just look at the title of my post. But fair for Major League Baseball overall based on its past? Absolutely.

In fairness to John, I think his primary point was more about the rapid speed with which a story like mine, fraught with speculation, can take off in today’s day and age. And he’s right, even though so far only 300 people had even read the post, which started out as just a response to my buddy in a fantasy league.

I wrote John a quick email after reading his post, thanking him for the recognition and explaining my perspective a bit more. Here is the end of that email, as I think it is the best way to sum up this post before I move onto something else for today:

I set out trying to disprove that there was reason to speculate, but the past 15 or so years has made it hard to do so. I always defended Manny Ramirez and he made me and a lot of other people look like a fool; and honestly, that re-opened the floodgates to me erring on the side guilty until proven innocent, as opposed to the other way around — as it should be.

The truth is that I sincerely hope that Raul Ibanez and every other major leaguer is clean. And there is no way I could look him in the eye and tell him I think he’s on steroids — nor was that my conclusion. But I think it’s also true that Raul Ibanez would have a hard time looking baseball fans in the eye and saying they have no right to speculate. Through no fault of his own, but through that of his peers past and present, steroid speculation is now as much a part of baseball as the MLB Network.

Sad is definitely the most apt word to describe it.



Belmont Stakes Preview: Post Time, Post Positions, Betting Odds, and TV Schedule

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Belmont Stakes Preview: Mine That Bird is the Word

The Belmont odds are here and there is, pardon the pun, a lot at stake. Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra won’t run and t2009 Belmont Stakes Post Time, Post Positions, Betting Odds, TV Schedulehat opens the door up for what should be a tightly matched field. Switching from his Preakness-winning horse back to his Kentucky Derby-winning horse, Mine That Bird, can jockey Calvin Borel take the Triple Crown?

Before we take a look at some Belmont contestants generating buzz at the racebook, let’s take a quick look at the particulars for the race, including the post time and TV schedule, and the post positions and odds:


2009 Belmont Stakes Post Positions, Race Horse Names, Trainers, Jockeys and Odds

Post Position Horse Name Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1 Chocolate Candy G. Gomez J. Hollendorfer 10-1
2 Dunkirk J. Velazquez T. Pletcher 4-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff E. Prado E. Harty 15-1
4 Summer Bird K. Desormeaux T. Ice 12-1
5 Luv Gov M. Mena D. W. Lukas 20-1
6 Charitable Man A. Garcia K. McLaughlin 3-1
7 Mine That Bird C. Borel C. Woolley 2-1
8 Flying Private J. Leparoux D. W. Lukas 12-1
9 Miner's Escape J. Lezcano N. Zito 15-1
10 Brave Victory R. Maragh N. Zito 15-1

Now that we’ve looked at the Belmont Stakes post time and post positions, let’s look at a few of the top contenders and their odds for winning the 2009 Belmont Stakes.

THE CONTENDERS

2009 Belmont Stakes Post Time, Post Positions, Betting Odds, TV ScheduleMine That Bird
Belmont Stakes odds: 2 to 1

No surprise here. He won the Derby and his style – hanging back in the pack and making a late charge – is perfectly suited to the Belmont, which is the longest of the Triple Crown tracks. In fact, he may have caught Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness had the distance been longer. With jockey Borel riding him in hopes of achieving personal glory, Mine That Bird is the clear-cut favorite for those betting online.

Charitable Man
Belmont Stakes odds: 3 to 1

If Mine That Bid is the consensus favorite, Charitable Man is the consensus No. 1 challenger. The speedy horse is three-for-three on dirt and two-for-two at Belmont, so he has the potential to leave the field in the dust this Saturday. He’s never run a race this long, though; will he have the stamina?

THE SOLID PICKS

Dunkirk
Belmont Stakes odds: 4 to 1

On one hand, he hasn’t stepped up to the plate in big races this season; he finished 11th at the Kentucky Derby and didn’t run the Preakness. However, he has great stamina and could contend since he should run most of the race at full speed.

Chocolate Candy
Belmont Stakes odds: 10 to 1

If you want an “educated” pick yet still want a shot at winning pretty good money, Chocolate Candy may be your horse. He was a respectable fifth at the Kentucky Derby and has two stakes race wins this season. He can also handle the Belmont distance, so you shouldn’t forget about him when betting online.

THE LONG SHOT

Miner’s Escape
Belmont Stakes odds: 15 to 1

Don’t laugh! No one ever imagined that Mine That Bird would take the Derby, so it’s reasonable to take a long look at Miner’s Escape. His owner/trainer tandem of Robert LaPenta and Nick Zito guided their horse Da’Tara to the win at last year’s Belmont odds, so they know what they’re doing here. Miner’s Escape also won his last race, so he may be the best “swing for the fences” pick in Belmont betting.



The Future Is Now: Chicago White Sox Promote Gordon Beckham

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White Sox promote Gordon Beckham from AAAJust checked Twitter one last time tonight for no reason other than boredom and very faint curiosity, but boy am I glad I did. I saw this little nugget, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. So I will do the Twitter thing and retweet it here:

@mlbtraderumors White Sox to DFA Betemit, Promote Beckham http://tinyurl.com/r8ka47

Wilson Betemit, who has been scuffling all year with the bat and glove will be designated for assignment before Thursday night’s game. Gordon Beckham, the team’s #1 draft pick last year and consensus top prospect, will be called up. There is no word at MLBTR whether Beckham will start tomorrow.

Gordon Beckham was drafted as a shortstop but played 2B this spring and for most of the season in AA. He was recently promoted to AAA, where he was moved to 3B. The move was widely seen as one that could potentially expedite Beckham’s arrival in the Bigs. With Alexei Ramirez playing solid D at shortstop and coming into his own with the bat in ’09, there appears to be a long-term roadblock at Beckham’s natural spot. But with Josh Fields struggling in the field and at the plate, there is an obvious hole at 3B.

I’ll update this with more tomorrow morning. But I tell you what, I’m excited. I have no idea if the White Sox are making a wise move for 2009 and for Beckham’s development, but it will definitely be exciting to see Beckham getting ABs on the South Side. Let’s see what the kid can do. He could very well be the shot in the arm our offense needs.

Or it could stunt his growth and he could end up being a non-factor for 2009.

Either way, the intrigue is delicious and it’s a bold move by the White Sox. Now let’s see how it pans out.

Update: Another tweet, from InsideTheSox, says Beckham will be starting tomorrow, which is not really surprise. They wouldn’t call him up if he wasn’t going to get consistent ABs.

RT @InsideTheSox Beckham will be in the lineup Thursday against the A’s — Ozzie Guillen



MMA Roundup: 2 Events this weekend, and the return of Kimbo

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Faber-Brown Poster WECThis weekend is stacked. No two ways around it, this is the biggest weekend for MMA until UFC 100. I know my heavyweight hero Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic is coming back next weekend at UFC 99, and that a very interesting fight between Wanderlei SIlva and Rich Franklin will be headlining, but those matches are no match for the quality of fighter we will see in action this weekend.

Sunday June 6, 9pm ET on Versus WEC presents Brown Vs Faber 2

This is my pick for fight of the weekend. No matter how it ends, as long as it happens no other fight holds the interest this does. Urijah Faber is 22-2 and was considered an unstoppable featherweight until last November when Mike Brown man handled him for just over 2 minutes then scored a TKO victory. Both fighters have fought once since then. Both scored first round submission victories, and both plan on doing the same in this fight.

While both fighters are determined and skilled, I just cant see Faber loosing this. In his last fight (a rematch Vs. Jens Pulver) Faber came to the ring with an air of victory. He could have been fighting Brock Lesner that day and won. His will was so strong that it came through the TV and let you know, as soon as you saw him, that he was going to win decisively. That being said, Browns domination of Faber in the first fight was surprising. Faber never stood a chance on that day and Brown seemed to have his number. I really hope this fight goes past the first round.

Saturday June 5, ,10pm ET on Showtime Strikeforce presents Lawler Vs SheldsArlovski

For me, the headlining match isn’t the biggest match on this card. While I fully expect Robbie Lawler and Jack Shelds to tear the house down and have a great fight (who could forget the two EliteXC contest between Lawler and Smith?) I am much more interested in the match between Andrei Arlovski and Brett Rogers. This could very well be showcasing 2 of the three best Heavyweights outside of the UFC (Fedor being the other), maybe I am a little overzealous to name Rogers as a top heavyweight, but that dude has potential to be a star. I believe him to be much better the Josh Barnett (whom Fedor is fighting in August) and I can see him having a very bright future in MMA. I hope Arlovski can hold Rogers off, but I’m not sure I can see it happening. No matter the outcome of this fight, the UFC needs to do all it can to sign whoever wins.

This Strikeforce event will also showcase someone who is becoming a begrudging favorite of mine, Nick Diaz. He will be fighting Scott Smith in what will probably turn into a stand up war. Smith has a habit of being in the most intense battles in MMA. His Nick Diazchin seems to be made of adamantium and his fist are of steel. Nick Diaz however is a BJJ black belt who fancies himself as a boxer. In my opinion, the smart move would be for Diaz to take Smith down and try to submit him, but I don’t think he will. This fight wont go all 3 rounds, but however long it does last, it will be a war. Diaz will trash talk, and maybe even flip the bird. Diazs’ brother (UFC fighter Nate Diaz) will stand on the outside talking smack and almost definitely flipping the bird. Smith will take a ton of punishment, seem to be knocked out, then comeback again and again. In the end I don’t know who will win. I am starting to really enjoy the side show that is the Diaz family, but I also really pull for Smith who seems to be a good guy with a family to feed. After this fight is over I just hope both fighters aren’t too hurt and can move on to their next fights soon.

While UFC 99 doesn’t happen for another week, it hasn’t exactly been quiet over at the Zuffa offices. For those of you who don’t know, The Ultimate Fighter 10 started filming this last week and the big news coming out of the taping doesn’t concern either Rashad Evans or Quintin “Ramapge” Jackson who are the coaches, nor does it concern the reported 4 former NFL players who are on the show this season. Kimbo SliceIt seems that Kimbo Slice has won the “Brass Balls” award for the week by joining the cast of TUF 10. This is a guy who was criticized by UFC President Dana White almost none stop just over a year ago as being a freak show. White always stated that Kimbo could come on TUF if he ever wanted to get a UFC contract, well it appears Kimbo decided to take him up on it.

I am pulling for Slice. If that guy can get his head together and get and sort of condition he could be really good for MMA. He was in the 1st and 3rd most watched events in the history of MMA and has ridiculous charisma . With the UFC in need of some, what I call, placeholder stars no one could be better for them then Kimbo.



Tears Continue in Wrigleyville: Promising Season Continues Downward Spiral

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Cubs Blow 5-0 Lead to Atlanta | Zambrano Misses Team FlightBefore I begin this post, let’s get a few things out of the way:

1) Yes, I have an agenda. I hate the Chicago Cubs with every fiber of my being.

2) I’m well aware that the Cubs are actually 1/2 game better than the White Sox as I write this. (I’m also aware that the White Sox are 1/2 game closer to first place in their division, so suck it.)

3) I am fully cognizant of the fact that reveling in someone else’s misery is a really lame and pointless exercise that no doubt makes me seem like a jealous twerp with a massive chip on my shoulder.

So be it.

Now that we have that out of the way, it’s time to revel in the continued misery of the underachieving Chicago Cubs and their annoying fans.

Last night when I got home and made my now consistent first move — turning the TV on and immediately changing the channel to the MLB Network — I was met with Matt Dillon look- and sound-alike Greg Amsinger informing us that Cubs pitcher Randy Wells had a no-hitter going through the 6 innings. The Cubs led 3-0 at the time and it looked like they would cruise to a much needed victory over the Braves.

However, Chipper Jones broke up the no-no with two outs in the 7th, and then an inning later – after the Cubs had tacked on two more runs to take a seemingly commanding 5-0 lead — the Braves opCarlos Zambrano Misses Team Flight to Atlanta | Cubs Lose to Braves after leading 5-0ened up the floodgates and scored five runs over the next two innings. A few extra innings later Chipper Jones singled home Yunel Escobar for a 6-5 victory.

“With a five-run lead in the eighth inning, it shouldn’t get away,” Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. “We gave that one to them, with a nice little ribbon.”

Indeed they did. And on a night when my own team was shut out at home against a rookie pitcher, the Cubs’ collapse at least provided me with something to smile about last night.

But when I woke up this morning I found out that there was more!

Not only did the Cubs give up a 5-0 lead to the Braves, but they continue to have problems with their big, raging, doofus of an ace Carlos Zambrano. Big Z, as everyone knows, is currently serving a six-game suspension for acting like a spoiled, demonstrative brat last week.

To make matters worse, reports surfaced late last night from the Chicago Tribune that Zambrano also missed the team flight to Atlanta. This morning in the Trib, it was reported that Piniella and Zambrano met to discuss the issue but that no reason was given for Zambrano missing the team flight. As explained by Paul Sullivan, add this to the litany of Zambrano missteps and the Cubs are beginning to grow weary of Zambrano’s petulance and apparent selfishness:

This isn’t the first time Zambrano has ignored team rules, but the Cubs appear to be wearying of his act. He’s expected to be fined for this latest incident and may be asked to apologize to his teammates.

Last Sept. 2, Zambrano left Wrigley Field during the middle of a game after a poor start and didn’t see his teammates fight back in a 9-7, 11-inning loss to Houston. Management reprimanded him afterward and he seemed contrite. Twelve days later he threw a no-hitter against the Astros at Miller Park in Milwaukee, and all was forgiven.

And that last line, of course, is the reason why the Cubs continue to put up with this nonsense from Zambrano.

Say what you will about him, but no one will dispute that he can be among the top handful of pitchers in baseball when he is focused and throwing the ball at his peak level. However, Carlos Zambrano has a 4.22 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP this season and has won only three games. And since his great four-year stretch from 2003-2006, during which he went 59-32 while never pitching less than 209.2 innings or having an ERA higher than 3.41, ZamCarlos Zambrano Misses Team Flight to Atlanta - Cubs Blow 5-0 Lead to braves in extra inningsbrano has not posted an ERA better than 3.91.

The truth of the matter is that if Zambrano is taking the ball and dominating every fifth day, the Cubs have no choice but to put up with his shenanigans. If he is just an average pitcher, then he becomes increasingly detrimental to their chances with every new outburst of controversy he creates.

So, obviously, if I have my druthers, Zambrano will continue to act like a clown, keep pitching like Dave Bush, and the Cubs will stay mired in the middle of the NL Central pack.

Sadly, every story about the Cubs makes national headlines because, for some reason, our nation believes that consistent losing and a tradition of failure somehow warrants love, adoration, and attention. So, for dumbfounded and admittedly jealous White Sox fans like myself, its always nice when that national spotlight shines on the negative.

And come to think of it, with the Cubs, the national spotlight usually shines on something negative. Because, well, they are the Cubs.

What else is there?



2009 NBA Finals: Lakers-Magic Game 1 Odds and Series Prediction

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2009 NBA Finals Lakers-Magic Game 1 Odds and Series Prediction - Kobe and Dwight HowardYou.

Hey YOU!

I know the NBA Finals odds aren’t your dream Kobe-LeBron matchup; you’re probably pissed that you don’t get Federer-Nadal in the French Open odds too, right? But seriously, put down the box of tissue. You’re getting Superman vs Kobe, for cryin’ out loud, It’s not like we’re watching Spurs-Pistons here!

The Lakers vs Magic odds, even without King James and the Cavs, still pit two of the hugest stars in the sport against one another. It’s the best big man in the business, Dwight Howard, versus the best scoring machine this side of LeBron, Kobe Bryant. Interestingly enough, though, the series will be decided by the supporting cast, not the stars.

Lakers-Magic odds: Game 1 Thursday, June 4 at 9:05 p.m. ET
Lakers NBA Finals odds: -280
Magic NBA Finals odds: +230

Follow the link to view the complete 2009 NBA Finals TV Schedule.

Many offshore sportsbook bettors are plenty excited about the NBA Finals odds, as they feel the Magic offer nice value and have a real chance to upset L.A. After all, few pundits expected them to get past the Celtics and, especially, the Cavaliers, so isn’t it time to give them respect? They also swept the Lakers 2-0 in the season series, winning a game at Staples Center. So why can’t they beat the Lakers now?

I’ll tell you why.

2009 NBA Finals Lakers-Magic Game 1 Odds and Series Prediction - Kobe and Dwight Howard

First off, home-court advantage will play a role in this series. Yes, the Magic won in L.A. during the regular season and, yes, they won a Game 7 on the road against the Celtics, and those are impressive accomplishments. However, no team in NBA history has won two road Game 7s in one playoffs, so the hoops betting odds are stacked against the Magic. The Lakers have had their hiccups here and there but they’re still dominant at Staples Center. Should the series go to a Game 7, they’d have a decided advantage.

Some basketball betting fans feel we can’t dismiss the Magic’s great regular-season play against the Lakers, especially with Jameer Nelson possibly returning for the series. However, the playoffs are a different beast and the Lakers are much more seasoned in that regard, as Kobe and Derek Fisher’s ring collections suggest. As for Nelson, he may not be 100 per cent if he plays and there’s no telling what could happen to the team chemistry upon his return. Can you say Ewing Theory?

The most important misconception among NBA Championship odds bettors is that the Magic have the advantage in the paint because of Dwight Howard. He is undoubtedly Planet Earth’s undisputed king of the paint, but he’s just one man. After him, the Magic seriously lack toughness and scoring depth inside; that’s a major problem considering how often Howard gets into foul trouble. He had 32 fouls in the Cavaliers series. 2009 NBA Finals Lakers-Magic Game 1 Odds and Series Prediction - Kobe and Dwight HowardThe Lakers have Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. How can Howard stop all three?

The Magic’s outside shooting has been amazing, with Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and even Rafer Alston draining three-balls like crazy. But outside shooting can go cold; inside scoring is much more consistent, so the scoring edge has to go to the Lakers.

THE VERDICT

The Magic are a cohesive team that spreads the ball around well, so they won’t go quietly against the Lakers. Two or three wins are entirely possible. However, the Lakers have what Cleveland had – an All-World scorer in Kobe Bryant – plus much more depth, especially inside. They’ll be too much for the Magic to handle, as they can beat them in so many ways.

Best sportsbook pick: Lakers in six

Follow the link to join BetOnline and get in on the betting action for the 2009 NBA Finals and receive a $125 initial deposite bonus.

What is your prediction for the NBA FInals?

Who will win the 2009 NBA Finals?

  • Orlando Magic (32%, 109 Votes)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (68%, 227 Votes)

Total Voters: 336

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Sports World Roundup: The Amazing White Sox Bullpen and the Last Word on Handshakegate

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Chicago White Sox logoDon’t look now, but the hottest team in baseball is none other than (cue: Gene Honda voice) your…Chicago WHITE SOX.

That’s right folks, since falling to 4th place in the AL Central and being closer to the last place Indians than the first place the Tigers, the White Sox have turned their season around and now sit at 25-25, a mere 3.5 games out of first place. They have the best record in baseball over their last ten games (8-2) and just kicked off a 12-game homestand last night with a 6-2 victory over the Oakland A’s.

Maybe it’s about time we all started to realize that the White Sox as currently constructed just take about a month a half to get their bats going. Luckily, Ken Williams and Ozzie Guillen seem to understand this, and while both will never stop tinkering and trying to make the club better, they certainly do not overreact. And the White Sox are better for it.

So what has keyed the White Sox turnaround? Well, certainly the hot bats of Scotty Pods and Alexei at the top of the order have helped, and Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Paul Konerko are producing behind them. The starting pitching is improving too. Mark Buehrle has been his usual ace-like self, Gavin Floyd is finally showing signs of life, and Clayton Richard has been a revelation since being inserted into the starting rotation. And don’t forget about Bartolo Colon. The guy is not spectacular, but a 3.80 ERA? Hell, I’ll take that from our 5th starter. Octavio Dotel - Chicago White Sox

But the true key to the White Sox success has been the bullpen.

I remember last year before the White Sox played their first game of the season against the Cubs, Joe Morgan said, and I quote, “This is the best bullpen I have ever seen.”

Now, even I realized that was ridiculous when Morgan said it; and sure enough, the White Sox bullpen struggled more in the latter part of the season than it had early on. But I do not think it is ridiculous by any means to say that the White Sox have the best bullpen in baseball. They certainly have the most underrated one.

Take a look at these numbers:

  • Bobby Jenks: 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 15K, 5BB, 12 Saves
  • Scott Linebrink: 1.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19K, 5BB, 1 Save, 3 Holds
  • Octavio Dotel: 1.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .167 BAA, 20K, 12BB, 8 Holds
  • Matt Thornton: 1.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .208 BAA, 30K, 9BB, 9 Holds
  • D.J. Carrasco: 2.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 19K, 8BB

That is damn solid production. And with White Sox starters averaging around 6 innings per game, those five are pretty close to all the White Sox have needed. (Which is good, because Jimmy Gobble, Mike MacDougal, and Jack Egbert have all sucked when given opportunities to pitch.)

So while it’s easy to look at the White Sox and see their shortcomings: inconsistency in center field, lack of production at the top of the order, aging heart of the lineup, the struggles of Danks and Floyd, Carlos Quentin’s body made out of porcelain, etc., etc., don’t forget about this team’s greatest strength: it’sJim Thome and Matt Thornton shutdown bullpen.

The White Sox remain very capable of defending their AL Central crown, and the bullpen is the primary reason why.

In other news…

Jim Thome continues to garner favor with me and move himself further and further from the Indians association that clouded by view of him for his first two and a half years on the South Side. Last night, Thome hit career HR #550 and it proved to be the difference maker.

Here’s some more love for the White Sox bullpen and derogatory comments about the Cubs’ offense. Gotta love it.

Joba Chamberlain made a pretty sweet catch against the Indians yesterday.

Cuzzy is the man when it comes to Photoshop. Here are 10 movie posters for the NBA Finals.

Anytime a Florida Gators’ football player has to be tased by police…well it’s just a very heartwarming story for a frustrated and jealous Vols fan like myself.

Moving back to the NBA for second, a great post hit my inbox a few minutes ago from Cleveland Frowns regarding LeBron James and the “Handshakegate” story that has been all the rage over the last 48 hours. I hesitate somewhat to link to it…but only because Jay Mariotti is mentioned without the word “douche” somewhere in the same sentence. Other than that though, the post provides some nice perspective on a story that’s been blown way out of proportion. I just hope the perspective turns out to be wrong, because I don’t want to see LeBron leave Cleveland.

I realize the Cubs are actually a 1/2 game better than the White Sox in terms of record right, but it’s still fun to revel in their misery. And seriously, what team do you feel better about moving forward? You can’t say the Cubs. Seriously? Fine…just wait until Interleague.

Here is an interesting comparison between Leighton Meester and Adrian Gonzalez. I am intrigued by this because a) she is pretty damn hot; and b) Adrian Gonzalez is absolutely carrying my fantasy team into first place. He has been ridiculous.

An interesting take on the Cavs’ failure, wondering if Mike Brown should be liable to LeBron James for negligence. In a word: yes.

And in case you haven’t heard, Joe Buck has a new TV show starting soon. I’ve always been pretty hard on Joe Buck because something about him annoys the hell out of me when I’m watching sports – especially baseball – but I have to admit that the promo for his new show is pretty funny and there is some potential there.

That’s about it from here. Be back later. Have a great morning.



2009 NBA Finals Preview: Lakers-Magic TV Schedule and Point Spreads

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2009 NBA Finals Lakers-Magic TV Schedule, Dates, Times, ABC, Spreads, Lakers-Magic TicketsThroughout the week, we’ll be posting stories about the 2009 NBA Finals between the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers. I have to admit that the series will be a little bittersweet for me with LeBron and the Cavs out of it. I had never actively rooted for a particular NBA team since Jordan retired, but LeBron has turned me into a Cavs fan, as well as my association with so many Clevelanders. Plus, the sports fans in me would have loved to see a LeBron-Kobe mano-a-mano matchup.

But it didn’t happen, and the Magic are a very deserving team. Dwight Howard is becoming a dominant force, and the white-guy-from-Indiana in me can’t help but love seeing how deadly the Magic are from beyond the arc. There is something special about watching LeBron try to do everything on his own, but the Magic obviously play a much crisper brand of team basketball and are entertaining in their own right. I give a lot of the credit for that to Stan Van Gundy, the Magic’s underrated coach.

Can they beat the Lakers though? That will be tough. No one can beat the Lakers when they come ready to play and function as a cohesive unit. I think they’ll do that in four of the games and come away with another championship, but after watching Orlando play against Cleveland I certainly would be surprised if the series went the other way.

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Click Here for Deals on Lakers-Magic Tickets for the 2009 NBA Finals

2009 NBA Finals Lakers-Magic TV Schedule, Dates, Times, ABC, Spreads, Lakers-Magic Tickets

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Anyway, you’re here for information, and information you shall receive. The 2009 NBA FInals Lakers-Magic TV Schedule is below, with the complete TV listings (all games on ABC) including dates and times. Plus, I’ll hop on here regularly to update the point spread info and results of each game. Here ya go:


Lakers-Magic NBA Finals TV Schedule: Dates, Tip Times, Networks, Spreads and Results

Game Matchup Date Time Location TV Spread / Result
1 LA Lakers def. Orlando Magic 100-75 Thu, June 4 9:00 ET Los Angeles ABC LA leads 1-0
2 LA Lakers def. Orlando Magic 101-96 (OT) Sun, June 7 8:00 ET Los Angeles ABC LA leads 2-0
3 Orlando Magic def. LA Lakers 108-104 Tue, June 9 9:00 ET Orlando ABC LA leads 2-1
4 LA Lakers def. Orlando Magic 99-91 (OT) Thu, June 11 9:00 ET Orlando ABC LA leads 3-1
5* LA Lakers v Orlando Magic Sun, June 14 8:00 ET Orlando ABC ORL -2.5
6* LA Lakers v Orlando Magic Tue, June 16 9:00 ET Los Angeles ABC  
7* LA Lakers v Orlando Magic Thu, June 18 9:00 ET Los Angeles ABC  
             
  * - if necessary          

Check back throughout the week as, in addition to the Lakers-Magic NBA Finals TV Schedule, we’ll also be bringing you historical information about the NBA Playoffs, the Magic and Lakers, and betting tips if gambling is your thing.

It should be a great finals, but the best player usually comes out on top; which gives the Lakers a huge edge I think. What do you think?

Who will win the 2009 NBA Finals?

  • Orlando Magic (32%, 109 Votes)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (68%, 227 Votes)

Total Voters: 336

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