Say Hello to Rick Porcello, An Intriguing and Valuable Fantasy Fellow

Before I begin this breakdown of Detroit Tigers pitching phenom Rick Porcello, let me explain the inspiration for my rhyming title that I’m sure some jagoff like KVB will make fun of me for in the comments.

As a proud Porcello fantasy owner, I had been contemplating a shout-out and analysis of this young pitching phenom for a couple of weeks. Well, an email that dropped into my inbox a few minutes ago finally compelled me to hop into WordPress and write, and the email was from Friend of MSF Josh Q. Public.

Josh Q. wrote a post earlier today extolling the prodigy-like virtues of the Tigers’ young mound virtuoso who is off to a very auspicious beginning in 2009. Follow the link to read Josh Q’s post about Rick Porcello…then come back and here and tell me your thoughts aren’t forming as lyrical verses. (Love the style Josh Q.)

But this post is not about playing grab ass with a fellow sports blogger; it’s about discussing Rick Porcello, who is only 20 years old but already owns 6 major league victories and is currently riding an incredible 5-game winning streak that is comparable only to a streak achieved by Doc Gooden back during “Doctor K’s” amazing 1984 rookie season.

As pointed out in the post by Josh Q. Public referenced above:

Only one pitcher in major league history as young as Porcello went 5-0 with an earned run average of 1.50 or better over any five-start span. Wanna know who that guy is? Sure you do. That guy is none other than Dwight Gooden. Doc, at age 19, went 5-0 with a 1.43 earned run average over a five-start span in 1984.

First, let’s take a look at Porcello’s stats thus far in 2009:

• 6-3 record in 9 starts
• 51.2 innings pitched
• Less than a hit per inning (46 total)
• A 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (32:16 total)
• A batting average against of .236
• A solid ERA and WHIP combo of 3.48 and 1.20

Now, lets take a look at the Porcello’s last 5 starts:

• 5-0 record with wins over Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland, Colorado, and Kansas City
• Only 1 home run given up
• Only 5 total earned runs given up
• Only 22 hits given up in 30 innings
• All 5 starts have been Quality Starts

And this guy is how old?

The first thing any detractors will say is that Porcello has not exactly been pitching against the best offenses in Major League Baseball. Minnesota’s offense has been hot since getting Joe Mauer back, but KC, Colorado, Oakland, and Cleveland aren’t necessarily scaring anyone. Porcello did pitch against the Yankees earlier in the year and had his worst outing when he gave up 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. A quick look at the Tigers’ schedule in June shows that Porcello will likely be starting against the Red Sox, the Angels, the Pirates, the Cardinals, the Cubs, and the Oakland again.

So the questions are: can Porcello keep this up and what should you do with him as a fantasy owner?

Regarding the question of whether or not Porcello can keep his current streak up, obviously the answer is no. He is not going to win every start, nor is he going to hold every team to two earned runs or less. However, maintaining his current ERA of 3.48 and winning a minimum of 8-10 starts over the balance of the season certainly is within his reach, even at the young age of 20.

The reason is that Rick Porcello is not your typical 20-year old pitcher.

According to MLB.com, coming into the 2009 season Rick Porcello was the #4 overall prospect in baseball. Last year at the Class A Advanced Florida State League, Porcello flashed his potential by generating a 2.66 ERA and a WHIP of 1.29. He was also remarkably consistent, never posting an ERA higher than 3.43 in any month. An how about this little excerpt here:

Upside potential: Ace, All-Star, Cy Young candidate, you name it. He’s been compared to Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Roy Oswalt and Josh Beckett.

Damn. That’s some pretty lofty company to be compared to. And thus far in 2009, only Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander have turned in better overall stats than Porcello.

According to every scouting report you read about Porcello, he has the following:

• mid-90s two sean and four-seam fastball that he can throw consistently for strikes and ground balls.
• an improved curveball
• a solid changeup that he can throw in any count
• makeup and mound presence that are “off the charts”

Porcello has given up 7 home runs in his 51.2 innings, so I’d like to see that ratio drop a bit, and we’d all love to see a little more dominant K:BB ratio than 2:1, but I feel like I’m nit-picking. Porcello is a pitcher that I plucked off the waiver wire in one fantasy league and have since started and dropped him about three different times, not quite believing that he would continue pitching so well.

After his last five starts, I am dropping him no more.

But moving onto the second question posed above, what should you do with Porcello if you own him? Obviously you should hang onto him if the alternative is dropping him, but is he a good sell-high candidate? The answer is that he could be, depending on what you get in return.

As a young pitcher, there is still risk with Porcello. Only the most talented and mentally tough young pitchers can make through a full rookie season without substantial inconsistency. We’ve certainly seen pitchers do it, but it is not the norm. The more I read about Porcello though, the more I am beginning to believe that he could very well be that rare rookie pitcher who can consistently post solid starts all year long, with the occasional blip like he had against the Yankees earlier this year.

The other question involves how many innings young Porcello will pitch in this day and age of teams treating young pitching phenoms like porcelain dolls. Last year, Porcello threw 125 innings in Class A. At his current rate of a little less than 6 innings per start, Porcello would reach 170 2/3 innings after 30 starts, a jump of 45 innings. Whether the Tigers will allow this to happen is an unknown, but with the team in first place and Porcello throwing so well, it will be hard for them to justify removing him from the rotation barring some sort of injury. The potential certainly exists, however, for Porcello’s performance to drop some should his arm begin to tire.

More likely, at least as I see it, is that Porcello does reach at least 175-185 innings this season with stats comparable to what he has now. More worrisome in this regard will be how Porcello bounces back next year, because any decent fantasy owner understands the risk inherent in pitchers with that kind of year-over-year innings jump. (Case in point, the early season struggles of John Danks this year.)

This morning, I offered one of the guys in my league Porcello and Joakim Soria for Dustin Pedroia. I have a great offense, but a gaping hole at 2B (which could be filled by Alexei Ramirez had I not been a douche and dropped him). I also have John Smoltz, who appears poised for a return in June, along with Roy Halladay, Scott Baker, John Danks, Joe Saunders, and David Price. This is not a standard 5X5 league, but rather a head-to-head league in which negative stats like BB, H, and ER are used with a minimum innings requirement; thus, you cannot simply start your pitchers in every game and they have inherently less value compared to offensive players that in normal leagues.

However, after doing some research for this post, I have rescinded the offer.

I think there is a very good chance that Rick Porcello could end up being my #2 pitcher over the course of the year, right behind the great Roy Halladay. Even for the reigning AL MVP Pedroia, I think I would be giving up too much, since Soria himself is no slouch. I am still going to explore trade offers, because Porcello’s value is reaching its high point with this amazing streak he is on. But unlike a few weeks ago, I’m not just willing to give him away as if he were replaceable on the waiver wire.

If you own Rick Porcello in fantasy, feel confident hanging onto him and starting him regularly until he coughs up two or three starts that you make you question his consistency. As of right now, there is absolutely nothing in his track record to suggest that the proverbial rug is going to be pulled out from under his solid production. But if you are thinking about trading him, make sure that you get another #2 or #3 starter in return, or an offensive player who will become a regular in your lineup.

And by all means if you are in a league with people who are asleep at the wheel and Porcello is available, run don’t walk to the waiver wire and pick him up. In Yahoo!, he is only owned in 73% of leagues, so apparently more than a quarter of leagues are indeed asleep at the wheel.

As a White Sox fan, I certainly hope Porcello stumbles because he and Justin Verlander appear poised to form a potent 1-2 punch atop the Tigers’ rotation for years to come. But as a baseball fan and fantasy baseball analyst and player, I have to admit that there is absolutely nothing to suggest that Rick Porcello will anything less than an All Star-level starting pitcher for the next decade, and it is beginning to look like he is already at that level right now and could stay there for the rest of 2009.

---------------