Struggling in the saves category every week? Many closer sleepers await your claiming in the FA, and I’m here to get you a few prospects to help turn around that defeat in pitching categories.
Baseball is nearly 1/3 through the season. Some relief pitchers are grabbing the 9th inning by the ball and taking care of business, some are evening out to their seasonal averages, and others are on the road to a let-down of a season for many fantasy owners. I’ll begin with the disappointments, move to the blessings this year, and suggest which RPs are worth a free agency pick-up.
Like every year, a good portion of the highly-acclaimed closers are flopping out. A few cases of shanking have been witnessed to the Phillies’ Brad Lidge (ERA: 9.15, WHIP 2.08), who sealed the deal on all 48 opportunities last season while giving up only 15 runs. Yet he was part of the World Series champs, and it’s just a historical fact that any team to win a title has poorer pitching the opening segment of the next season (White Sox after ’05 season especially). Lidge has already given up 5 more runs than he did all of last season. His numbers blow so far, yet his “mechanics†are “tweaked and without quandaryâ€, according to Charlie Manuel. Lidge’s velocity remains in the 90’s, and claims he is “healthy in mind and bodyâ€.
Another few blown saves and the “health†of his position may be in jeopardy, and open the door for Ryan Madson. Don’t be surprised to see him in the 9th if Lidge keeps up his skit of blown games.
Another downer this year has been Jose Valverde. 8 innings so far, I suppose this is due to the calf injury. He will be back in a matter of weeks, so don’t plan for a return until late June, especially with LaTroy Hopkins Hawkins (thank you commenter for pointing out the spelling error) taking care of business the past couple of weeks. However, Valverde’s past 2 seasons have averaged 45 saves and a much improved command on his delivery from his ’06 season. Ride out the next few weeks with patience, and in the meantime consider Hopkins, who is only owned in 43 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Who else stinks this year? Matt Capps looks unpleasant in the numbers department (ERA: 6.60, WHIP: 1.93) so far this year. His nagging elbow injury may be slowing him down, though his trademark slider is looking solid at 95 mph. Look for his ERA to end up below 3.50 and around 35 saves, plus about a strike per inning. Hold onto this one, especially with backup scrubs in the Pittsburgh bullpen.
[Editor's Note: Since Josh submitted this post, Matt Capps has actually aggravated the elbow injury. The early reports are that it's not too serious, but enough to make him miss a week or two. John Grabow was the name being bandied about as the guy to get the saves while Capps is out.]
So far this year a few notable, middle-to-late round draft picks have lost their rights to the 9th. Toronto’s B.J. Ryan and Seattle’s Brandon Morrow are getting a taste of the set-up position. While Morrow is young and still has time to fix things, Ryan isn’t a likely candidate to rebirth any stellar numbers, at least this year with a shoulder burden. Scott Downs is taken in only 69 percent of leagues, pitches for at least a K/IP, and found his groove since the ’07-’08 seasons at the set-up position. It’s uncertain at what point Morrow will regain his closing job, but until then sponge up some saves from David Aardsma. Posting solid numbers so far, 24 Ks in 21 IP, and owned in 40 fricken percent of leagues? There’s a good chance you can track him down right now. Until these two “temporary†closers slip up a few games, expect to see them on the mound to close out games.
Now for the pleasant surprises.
Ex-Seattle SP Ryan Franklin has been solid for fantasy rosters this season. With 11 saves so far and no possible back-up threat (save Jason Motte), he seems to be in the saddle for the year at the closer. Expect infrequent bumps in his ERA throughout the season as he has streaks of less than stellar appearances on occasion, but with Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, and Adam Wainwright pitching with quality, 
Franklin will rake up about 37-40 saves this season.
Possibly the most impressive RP at this point, Trevor Hoffman has 11 saves thus far on the season, and he began in May. I would post his current ERA if he had one. You could say he’s the Joe Mauer of RP at this point. By that, I also mean the same for both players; sell high. Sell right now. Do it. Go offer trades, try and get some value. Hoffman is solid, but no one keeps a goose egg in ERA, even though a career ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of basically 1.00 might seem to suggest otherwise. Yet this nearly 42-year old grizzled veteran has seen his best days, and things start to fall apart when you commence middle age. If I haven’t stressed enough, trade him ASAP for someone you cherish.
Who else looks awesome right now? Rangers’ Frank Francisco also has yet to allow a run this season. His 10 saves are remarkable, especially with over 2 weeks on the DL with his throwing-arm (R) biceps tendinitis. Solid numbers last year as the set-up man show promise, yet I would not invest in this as a long-term investment of saves all season. In addition to an injury possibly hazing on his momentum, the early summer is thawing into the scorching fires of Texas climate, and balls are sure to be flying out of the The Ballpark incredibly soon. As the temperature climbs, be wary of a similar behavior in Frankie’s ERA as well.
Another stud is Jonathon Broxton, who set-up in the shadow of Takashi Saito for some years. My first inclination would be to advise trading him, being the No. 4 ranked player and all, but I’d rank him among elites Jonathon Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, and Francisco Rodriguez. History tells us you don’t trade consistency in the closer seat, and Broxton is headed in that direction.
Heath Bell will also place concrete numbers the rest of the season. A pitcher’s ballpark and several years of quality 8th inning appearances, ride him out the rest of the season.
With Joakim Soria about 10 days away, look for interim saves for the Royals from Juan Cruz, owned in 28 percent of leagues.
Other RP on the watch list: (owned %)
- Andrew Bailey (OAK) 50%
- J.J. Putz (NYM) 28%
- Michael Wuertz (OAK) 14%
- Chris Perez (STL) 12%
- Kiko Calero (FLA) 11%
- C.J. Wilson (TEX) 9%
- Edward Mujica (SD) <1% (Only if Heath Bell goes down)
- And any RP in Tampa Bay
Have an excess of relievers and saves? Sell high on these guys now for value at other positions:
- Frank Francisco
- Trevor Hoffman
- Francisco Cordero
Committee on saves:
- Kevin Gregg, Carlos Mármol (CHC)
- George Sherrill, Chris Ray (BAL)
- Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano (ATL)
- Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey (MIL) (only if Hoffman goes down, which is likely)
- Brad Ziegler, Andrew Bailey (OAK)
So what’s going on in Tampa Bay? If you guessed Troy Percival being on the DL, you’d be right more often than not. However, his trip has not only served to the DL, but also to his hometown in California, where he contemplates retirement. That means 9th inning door has opened, but to which RP?
There are 5 potential candidates:
- Grant Balfour
- Joe Nelson
- J.P. Howell
- Dan Wheeler
- Jason Isringhausen
Much of the closer consideration is based upon the pitiful 9th inning detonation by Cleveland in their 11-10 victory over the Rays. Wheeler has struggled in the closer role in the past and blows almost half of his save opportunities, therefore he makes more sense as a set-up man, to which he performs better anyway. Balfour is a big tool. Surrendering 3 runs in 1/3 innings essentially sealed his fate and will keep him from closing games anytime soon. As of now, the most experienced closer would be Isringhausen, but he blew his sole opportunity for the save after walking 3 batters and blowing the save to give Victor Martinez the winning drive. The competition reigns chiefly between Howell and Nelson.
Most non-closerlike closer in the game:
Award goes to Kerry Wood of the Cleveland Indians, who looks enthralled about closing for the worthless
Indians.
- W-L: 1-2
- ERA: 7.20
- K: 20
- Walks: 10
- Saves: 7
This has been an inside scope on the Bullpens of Major League Baseball, stay tuned for more fantasy advice and updates in the next few weeks.
