Deal ‘em, Reel ‘em: Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice and Tips

The MLB’s first 3 weeks are bringing along surprises. Toronto and Seattle sit atop their divisions. The Angels are 6-11. Astonishing. The Pirates have young talent coming through at the mound and plate, and the worthless Cubs are sitting at .500 at the middle of the NL Central.

Suck it, Cubs fans

Alright, maybe it’s a little early for impetuous smack-talk, but I just watched Alexei Ramirez jack his 5th grand slam with the White Sox last night, and I remembered suddenly that euphoric stroke of what it means to be a White Sox fan. Furthermore, my boy Paul Konerko finally looks like he has his body healthy and capable this season.

Amidst the strange standings referenced above come equally aberrant fantasy stats for many players. I’m here to sort out the current hot starters that you should deal high and the frosty players to reel in low.

Note: I am a firm believer in praising AVG in standard 5×5 leagues. If you can get on base, you have the world of stats open to you. Every stat has a greater potential to react positively if a batter’s average is higher.  Also, all rankings and position eligibilities referenced below are based on Yahoo! rankings.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice and Tips: Players to Reel In

Alexei Ramirez – Yeah, he nailed a grand slam last night, but that only minutely fuels the alarming path Alexei is going to be on for the rest of the season. Ignore the average. He bats .172 in April on average, then the Cuban Missile launches to .288 in May, and doesn’t look back as he soars beyond .300 the next months.

Move over, Robin Ventura. With five career grand slams already as a White Sox player, Alexei is as clutch as they come.

Ramirez came up last year and fooled pitchers with his unique batting, and his technique continues to adapt. This guy’s potential has no limit; in AVG, HRs, RBIs, Runs, and SB, he has enormous potential to be a 5-category helper. 92% of leagues own him. If you can’t pick him up, trade now and be rewarded for the rest of the season. His versatility at positions 2B, SS, and OF make him easy to trade and put on your roster.

Lance Berkman – Berkman’s .167 is not a good average. It’s been 3 weeks already, but remember: it’s only been 3 weeks. Berkman delivers in AVG, HR, RBI, Runs, and, apparently from last year, his first season with double-digit steals at 18, he also is capable of producing in that category as well.

Many think the 33-year old is on the decline, but I say differently. You don’t switch from a career-high 9 SB to twice as many if you body feels “old.” Since 2001, only one year has Berkman missed more than 10 games. 6 out of 8 years he hits for more than 100 RBIs. In eight years, he is averaging 33 HRS a season.

Don’t be fooled by gossip; this guy is healthy, qualified, and April is his worst month in terms of almost every category anyway. Reel him in now, you will be showered with production the rest of the season.

Cole Hamels – He is pitching with an ERA of 10 and a WHIP of 2 right now. He had to readjust his delivery mechanics early on, and received a line drive to the shoulder last Thursday. Now that the grim beginning to 2009 is out of the way, the pitcher who is ranked around 194,036 (or 1166, give or take) looks “injury-prone” to many owners.

This is not the case.

When you increase from ’06’s 132 IP to 183, then to 227 in ‘08, aren’t you supposed to get “hurt” all the time from that increase? And is your ERA (4.08, 3.39, 3.09) WHIP (1.25, 1.12, 1.08) and K’s (145, 177, 196) supposed to improve substantially each year? These first 3 weeks are a fluke. They should not be precursors of any “indications” he is in trouble. I don’t believe he will be at a lower point in fantasy terms again in his career, so seize the opportunity to invest at Hamels’ low point.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice and Tips: Players to Deal Out:

Brandon Phillips – Mayday, Mayday, this liner is sinking faster than a brick. Every sign points to abandoning this ship. His career year came in ’07 with 30 HRs, 94 RBIs, and 32 SB. This was also the only year he didn’t miss 12+ games in his 7-year stint. With a career BA of .259, Phillips significantly lacks the power to have this squat average.

If you OBP fans are looking for a deal, turn away. Phillips has a .307 OBP in his career, and an average of 36 walks each of his 3 starting seasons. He is batting 4th, and this spot will stain his production in Runs. And if you’re batting .165, you’re not getting on base much. And if you don’t get on base with walks OR hits, you can’t steal them!

I do not trust one solid year to an overrated flop. He is owned in over 95% of leagues. Yes, finding 2nd basemen can be difficult, but trading his value now is a good idea before people realize he isn’t worth as much as they’d anticipated.

Matt Holliday – This is self-explanatory; going from the most renowned hitters’ ballpark of the MLB to McAfee Coliseum just demolishes any hopes of Holliday’s hitting numbers being what they were.

Since he is a solid hitter, his average may somehow make it’s way up to .300 by year’s end, but the dude won’t be hitting nearly the number of RBIs or HRs as he did in Coors Field. Expect to see his watered-down performance all year long. Do yourself a favor, and trade him quickly for value, and celebrate getting rid of the “Holliday.”

Orlando Husdon – Trade him immediately. His value will never be higher in his career. Several people want to hop on this gravy train for a hot 3-week start, but his career stats tell otherwise.

He will play about 135 games a year, produce around 11 HRs with 55 RBI and 14 SB a year. Does this look like the Number 15-ranked player in all of baseball? This is the perfect time to deal him out and get the most out of it. Anticipating his streak maintaining its course is like golfing in the dark. That analogy needs no further explanation.

Zack Greinke – The number 3 player in all of fantasy baseball. How much longer can his streak of 38 innings without an earned run keep up? All season hopefully? That would be great. But let’s see: increasing the pitch count from 122 innings to around 210? Looks alarming on paper.

Well it is. Pitchers have a history of injuries resulting from increasing innings over 30 from one year to the next. And Greinke did not just increase 30, but 90. He will throw his arm out at this rate.

Regardless of his amplified chance of going on the DL sometime this season, he is currently ranked number 3. Think of the possibilities. You reaped 38 flawless innings, so now trade for a more consistent, durable pitcher.

Tags: alexei ramirez, fantasy baseball, Zack Greinke

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