Fantasy Baseball Believe It or Not: Marco Scutaro, Alexei Ramirez, Raul Ibanez, and More

We brought a decent amount of fantasy football coverage to you last season, something we plan to continue next season (details to come soon from Fraschetti). And while I love fantasy football, my favorite fantasy sport has always been fantasy baseball.

The main reason is the contrast between the day-to-day nature of fantasy baseball and the one-day-a-week nature of fantasy football. I like the daily action and the volume of games and stats that occur during the MLB season, allowing for sample sizes large enough for the cream to usually rise to the top. There seems to be much more luck involved in winning at fantasy football. While that is exciting in its own way, my preference will always be fantasy baseball.

So, now that we are nearly a full two weeks into the baseball season, it is time for some fantasy baseball analysis. I realize I am not Matthew Berry or Eric Karabell or any of the other tenured fantasy baseball experts out there, but I’m usually at the top of every league I play and I have a pretty good grasp on how to analyze and project players. So while you never want to trust one just one source of fantasy baseball information as the gospel, I feel confident providing actionable advice for you to take into consideration. With that said, now you can be the judge.

One of the regular features we will have here at MSF is Believe It or Not. Basically, this is just a cliched phrase to describe how we will analyze guys who are perhaps playing above or below expectations, and try to ascertain whether their performance should be believed as an actionable trend moving forward. In this first installment I’m going to analyze some guys on my teams that have surprised me positively or negatively so far this season to determine what I should do with them.

(FYI…I play in Yahoo! leagues for the most part. Position eligibility listed below is based on Yahoo’s method for eligibility determination. Most of the leagues I play are not strict 5×5 leagues, but I’ll try keep my analysis to that basis as it is what most people use.)

Marco Scutaro, Toronto Blue Jays (2B, 3B, SS)

This guy has been unreal. He’s hitting .326 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, and leading the AL in runs with 15. Plus, his OPS is a sick 1.113. Let’s just get one thing out of the way that we all know: if you’re expecting this level of production for the balance of the season, you will be disappointed. Scutaro is a career .262 hitter who has never slugged higher than .397 (in 2006 with Oakland, a season in which he had only 365 ABs).

Scutaro is in his mid-30s, so expecting a career year that is light years ahead of his career averages, the pace he is currently on, is unreasonable. Plus, Marco Scutaro has always been a guy who has played some of his best baseball in April. For his career, April is Scutaro’s second-highest month for BA, his highest for OBP, his second highest for SLG, and his second highest for OPS. And right now, Scutaro has been the beneficiary of great hitting behind him from Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, and Adam Lind. I think Toronto’s lineup has the potential to be surprisingly solid in 2009, but Lind is unproven over a full year, Aaron Hill is typically a fast starter in terms of power numbers who slows down, and we all know how often Vernon Wells gets hurt.

So, if you’re trying to decide whether Scutaro can be a solid starting MI in a ten-team league, I say don’t believe it. But as a guy who can fill in at three infield positions and be a solid sub in case of injury, he does have value. I am certainly hanging onto him, keeping him in the starting lineup as long as his bat stays hot, but tempering my expectations moving forward.

The fast start by Marco Scutaro: Don’t believe it

Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox (2B, SS, OF)

For the record, I promise to keep my White Sox bias and man crush on The Cuban Missile (a.k.a. Mr. Grand Slam) out of this analysis.

I don’t think anyone was as controversial before the season as Alexei Ramirez. Some people saw him as a Soriano-like infield stud (from the pre-Cubs days, before he moved to the OF) while some saw Alexei as a one year wonder whose free-swinging ways would lead to a sophomore slump. So far, the naysayers are winning as Alexei has struggled out of the gate with a .143 BA, 0 HRs, 3 RBIs, and 2 runs in 35 April ABs.

But guess what? If you looked at Alexei Ramirez’s stats from last April, you would not be so surprised at his slow start. In 29 April ABs in 2008, Alexei hit .138 with 0 HR, 2 RBIs, and 1 run. In case you need a memory jog, Alexei rebounded to finish at .290 with 21 HR, 77 RBI, 65 R, and 13 SB, finishing second to Evan Longoria for Rookie of the Year.

If I were you, I’d go out and trade for Alexei Ramirez right now, especially considering his multi-position eligibility in Yahoo! leagues.

Many owners may be starting to buy into the sophomore slump hype after his slow start, and may not understand that Alexei is most likely just a slow starter and a streaky hitter. Last year, he was dealing with the pressure of fighting for a consistent lineup spot and playing in a new country to go along with his slow start. But his immense natural talent took over and he played great from May on, building to a crescendo of 12 HRs in August and September.

This year, Alexei knows the Sox are committed to him and he is more comfortable in the U.S. The pressure this year is that pitchers know more about him and will try to exploit his free-swinging ways. If your league takes OBP into account, Alexei does not have quite as much value. But in a standard 5×5 league, I still think he will put up top-10 numbers at 2B or SS, meaning he should be a consistent starter.

You may have to ride out a few ups and downs, as his free-wheeling approach at the plate can make him somewhat streaky; but at the end of the year, the numbers will look good and he will provide much better production than, say, Marco Scutaro.

The slow start of Alexei Ramirez: Don’t believe it

Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies (OF)

This is a guy I targeted in all of my drafts as a tremendous value pick, and he certainly has not disappointed. Along with Jermaine Dye, Raul Ibanez is perhaps the most underappreciated fantasy OF of the last half decade, consistently providing value above his draft slot. And he is maintaining his consistency despite his advancing age. Even in Seattle’s cavernous SafeCo Field, Ibanez would have been a good pick. As a lefty hitting in Philadelphia, it was pretty obvious that his value would improve this season.

Just look at Ibanez’s stats over the past three seasons in Seattle:

• 2006: .289 BA, 33 HR, 123 RBI, 103 R in 626 ABs (career year)
• 2007: .291 BA, 21 HR, 105 RBI, 80 R in 573 ABs
• 2008: .293 BA, 23 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R in 635 ABs

And now look at his start so far in Philly, where he has a more hitter-friendly park and lineup to work with:

• 2009: .361 BA, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R in 36 ABs

Ibanez is obviously not going to hit .361 for the whole season, but there is nothing about the other numbers that are outside the norm. You can pencil Ibanez in for a BA between .290-.300, 25-30 HR, 100+ RBI, and 100+ R (thanks to the ballpark and lineup improvements). That is set-it-and-forget-it type stuff that gives you consistent confidence at a #2 or #3 OF slot. If you are fortunate enough to have Raul Ibanez as a #3 OF, you are probably going to have a pretty good team.

If I were you, I’d throw out a feeler offer to Ibanez’s owner and see how much that owner values him. Ibanez is not a superstar or all that exciting, so some fantasy players do not realize how golden his consistently high production is. If you have him, and got him relatively late in the draft as a #3 OF, pat yourself on the back and do not part with him easily.

The solid start of Raul Ibanez: Believe it

And now, a few quick hits:

John Danks, Chicago White Sox (SP)

He is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 13 Ks in two starts. I love John Danks in real life and in keeper leagues, and I think the White Sox need to do anything necessary to get him signed for the long-term. From a fantasy perspective in 2009, however, I might see what I could get for him. Danks has already walked 7 batters in his two outings and his significant innings jump from 2007 to 2008 (139 to 195) could be a harbinger of arm troubles later this season. If you trade him, you should definitely get something good because Danks is one of the best young lefties in baseball; but if someone is willing to part with a really solid offensive player, I might try to capitalize on Danks’ hot start and hedge my bets against a second half drop-off.

The hot start of John Danks: Believe it to a degree, but be wary

Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees (SP)

This guy has been awful so far this year. And there are reasons to believe that his problems are more severe than just simply having a slow start and that his best days could be behind him. However, if you need pitching and he is on the waiver wire, think about this: for his career, Wang’s April ERA is a full run higher than his next highest month, which just so happens to be May. So obviously it takes Wang a few months to get the feel for his sinker, but he has been very solid throughout his career from June-September, with his worst month being August (3.81 career ERA, 1.39 career WHIP). Chien-Ming Wang is not a guy I would count on as a #1-#3 starter, but he can be a solid back-of-your-rotation kind of guy if you can stash him away until June.

The slooooow start of Chien-Ming Wang: Don’t believe it completely, but still be wary

Update: And by wary I mean horrifically terrified. Less than five hours after posting this, Chien-Ming Wang dropped a turd of a performance in his first start at the new Yankee Stadium. He gave up 8 earned runs to the lowly Cleveland Indians and couldn’t even get out of the 2nd inning. Perhaps his struggles this year are much more than just a slow start. He may be injured and/or completely messed up mentally and mechanically. If you are going to hang onto Wang, sit him at least until he strings a couple of solid starts together.

(Note: For the record, this is why I hate starting pitchers and always try to build my teams around a solid offense and a couple of proven, consistent closers (i.e. Joakim Soria, who I love and get every year). Starting pitchers can be very hard to project from year to year, or even month to month. You have to either get lucky with a healthy and effective starting staff throughout the year, or have a solid enough offense and bullpen to ride out the volatility of starters.)

And one final player for today:

Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox (OF)

Jason Bay is off to a great start, hitting .344 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 8 R, and most importantly only 6 Ks against 11 BBs. Keep in mind, Bay’s career K:BB ratio is 740:408. While Bay’s career numbers suggest that he can’t possibly keep up his nearly 2:1 BB:K ratio, I do think that his improved numbers after the trade to Boston last year foreshadow a great overall season from Bay this year. As a right-handed hitter in a park tailor-made for right-handed power hitters, the move to Boston is the best thing that ever could have happened to Jason Bay. After going at least 30-100-100-10 for two straight seasons in Pittsburgh, Bay was thought of among the elite OFs in the game. He struggled in 2007, but the rebounded last year. I think 2007 was the anomaly and that we’ll see another 30-100-100+ season from Bay in 2009. Keep him if you’ve got him and throw out a feeler trade if you don’t.

The fast start of Jason Bay: Believe it wholeheartedly

That’s it for today. Best of luck to everyone in head-to-head leagues this weekend. Hopefully your guys come through with solid performances to finish the week off strongly. Feel free to throw any questions in comment section and I’ll answer. I’m all about offering my perspective if it can help it any way.

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