Breaking Report: Browns to Draft Crabtree or Sanchez (or Raji…or Orakpo…or…Hartline?)

Stop everything! Breaking NFL draft news!

Just caught on ProFootballTalk that the Cleveland Browns will choose either USC QB Mark Sanchez or Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree with their first pick in the 2009 NFL Draft (#5 overall). The report by PFT cites a report by WOIO-TV in Cleveland that states the Browns are taking either Sanchez or Crabtree.

Now wait a minute. Before you go poo-pooing the report as just some random week-of-the-draft-rumor that we always see this time of year, think about it. With rumors swirling that the Browns are looking to trade WR Braylon Edwards and/or one of their QBs, this report actually *gasp* makes some semblance of sense. At the very least, its believable enough for the rumor to float around and catch on…which, of course, is the very reason the Browns are probably happy it’s out there. (And why you’ll see similar “reports” from “sources” floated by most NFL teams this time of year.)

Because wait until you see who the WOIO-TV report cites in its report.

Are you ready?

Here it comes…

SOURCES

That’s right ladies and gentleman, SOURCES have informed WOIO-TV that the Browns will draft either Mark Sanchez or Michael Crabtree with the 5th pick in the 2009 NFL draft. This, of course, most likely means that the Browns actually will not draft Mark Sanchez or Michael Crabtree, but that they want other teams to think they will draft Mark Sanchez or Michael Crabtree to drive a better deal with a team looking to trade up to the #5 slot for either player.

Or maybe they really do want to draft Mark Sanchez or Michael Crabtree.

Or maybe the Browns really want Brian Orakpo or Aaron Curry.

Or perhaps the Browns really want B.J. Raji.

Well guess what? SOURCES have informed Midwest Sports Fans that the Browns are actually targeting former Ohio State and current white WR Brian Hartline with the #5 pick. And I will even name my sources, making this MSF exclusive (depending on how you look at it) even more credible than the WOIO-V report.

The source is me. So there you go.

(And, for the record, sometimes I feel like all the disinformation come draft time is the NFL and media doing to fans what Brian Hartline is doing to his fiancee in the picture to the left.)

All joking aside, the myriad reports and rumors that float around during the weeks leading up to the NFL draft always amuse me. I would place the disinformation:information ratio coming out of NFL war rooms this time of year at about 90:10. The draft is all about selection position and value. In fact, it goes a little something like this:

Team A likes Player 1 or Player 2. However, Team A has Pick Z, yet they know they can probably get Player 1 or Player 2 with Pick Y or Pick X, but Team B and Team C have Pick Y and Pick X. Thus, Team A wants Team B and Team C to think that they covet Player 3 and Player 4, who are actually coveted by Team B and Team C. That way, Team A can get a better deal in a trade for Pick Z from Team B and Team C and then move down to Pick Y or Pick Z and Pick Player 1 or Player 2 and pay him less money while acquiring more picks later in the draft. Team B and Team C are compelled to pay a higher premium for Pick Z because they legitimately fear that Player 3 or Player 4 will be gone.

Make sense?

If you want to predict what a team is going to do on draft day, here are a few tips:

1. Believe nothing that comes from unnamed sources or that any coach or GM actually says until their pick has actually been announced. (Even then, only believe what a coach or GM says about 10% of the time.)
2. Only read announcements of official transactions that have actually happened (i.e. if the Browns actually trade Braylon Edwards, pay attention to that.)
3. Look at the team’s roster and needs and use your own football judgment and intuition to try to match that up with the relative value of the prospects projected to be available. And study four or five different sources of draft projections to get a general idea of what players are slotted where and who is rising or falling, so as not to weight one source’s biases too much.
4. Understand that, at best, you will only be able to make an educated guess with a 50/50 proposition of being right. And guess what? Your probability of being correct is probably pretty close to the experts’.

The truth is, draft projections are a fun exercise for die-hard NFL fans, and reading all of the reports about who is interested or not interested in Player X can provide a jolt of entertainment, but be very selective of what you actually believe. And by that I mean believe nothing.

So what’s the takeaway here? Well, obviously it is that the Browns will draft Mark Sanchez or Michael Crabtree.

Or B.J. Raji.

Or Brian Orakpo.

Or Aaron Curry.

Or that they will just skip their #5 pick and wait until the 10th or 11th position to send in their selection so they can pay the guy less money.

Or Brian Hartline.

Well, maybe not Brian Hartline. But in this case, I’d say the SOURCES saying Hartline are about as believable as the SOURCES saying Sanchez/Crabtree.

What do you think?

Who do you think the Browns will end up picking with the #5 pick in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft?

• Mark Sanchez (17%, 17 Votes)
• Michael Crabtree (30%, 29 Votes)
• B.J. Raji (7%, 7 Votes)
• Brian Orakpo (14%, 14 Votes)
• Aaron Curry (6%, 6 Votes)
• Brian Hartline (4%, 4 Votes)
• They'll trade out of the #5 slot (15%, 15 Votes)
• They'll pick at #5 but it will be someone not listed here (7%, 6 Votes)

Total Voters: 98

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Eric Mangini photo credit: Mike Duncan / USA Today

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