The 2009 NFL Draft is set to start in a little over 5 hours as I begin writing this. Matthew Stafford has already been declared the #1 pick by the Detroit Lions, meaning the St. Louis Rams are now on the clock trying to decide betw
een LTs Eugene Monroe and Jason Smith (or Mark Sanchez…really?) After the Rams make their choice, the Chiefs and Seahawks will be on the clock, followed by the Cleveland Browns.
With little new information emerging this morning regarding the Browns’ Saturday plans (not that any emerging information out of Berea would be believable anyway) there is only one thing left to do: try to predict what will actually happen today. And instead of telling you what I think will happen, I’m going to give you my own personal pie-in-the-sky dream scenario of what I’d like to see happen.
There are so many variables and trade possibilities out there, plus what seems to me like such a jumbled first round draft board, that trying to actually predict what will happen with any semblance of clarity seems pretty futile to me. I can certainly tell you what I hope happens, however.
First, let me link you to a couple of articles that have formed the basis for trades I’d like to see happen.
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Buy & Sell 2009 Cleveland Browns Tickets Online at Stubhub
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This morning, Mary-Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer provided her own collection of thoughts about the 2009 draft, the first of which I found myself agreeing with wholeheartedly:
The Browns should trade Braylon Edwards, even if they can only get a No. 2, No. 5 and a young prospect such as Domenik Hixon or Mario Manningham from the Giants. If they can secure the Giants’ first pick in the second round — the 45th overall — they’d have four picks in the top 50 and could transform the team with those players. At No. 45, they’d probably still be able to land a top-notch receiver or another immediate starter. Edwards needs a change of scenery and he’s heading into the final year of his deal. The Browns might as well get something for him while they can.
~ Four Things Mary Kay Cabot thinks about the NFL draft — (Cleveland Plain-Dealer)
I am not particularly enamored with either Domenik Hixon or Mario Manningham; I don’t think anyone is. However, seeing as how Manningham is a Michigan grad, only 5’11, and totaled a whopping 4 receptions as a rookie, while Hixon is from Akron, stands 6’2, has four years of NFL experience, and had 43 receptions last year, I think Hixon would be the more preferable of the two.
The real value, of course, would be the draft picks. And let me mention this: while I think it is conceivable for the Browns to be good in 2009 (this is the NFL after all, where miraculous turnarounds are a yearly occurrence), I think they should use 2009 as a year to rebuild with 2010 being the target for
truly competing. Any significant success next year will be considered gravy in my mind; I want to see progress. I see too many holes on this team to expect a playoff run next year. But with an influx of good, young, cost-efficient talent, the Browns can become very competitive in 2010…I think.
Back to the Edwards deal. No, such a deal would not give the Browns another 1st rounder, but this appears to be a draft with a lot of value in the second round. Not only can you get good players, but for a much better price than if you pick them in the first round. For a team like the Browns, which is essentially remaking its roster, the 2nd and 3rd rounds are where you want to stockpile picks. (And the Browns do not have a 3rd-rounder this year.)
Need more convincing? The New England Patriots have the 23rd, 34th, 47th, and 58th picks this weekend. They have a pretty good track record of rebuilding through the draft. I’d be quite comfortable following such a model.
Dream Scenario #1: The Browns complete a trade with the Giants sending Braylon Edwards to New York for the Giants’ 2nd (#45) and 5th round picks, plus Domenik Hixon.
Next up, let’s discuss what the Browns should do with their #5 pick in the first round. Projections have been all over the board. I’ve seen mock drafts giving the Browns each of the following players: Michael Crabtree, BJ Raji, Aaron Curry, Brian Orakpo, Mark Sanchez, and others. What this tells me is that there is no absolute, perfect fit for the Browns at #5, and that there is little separating the top 10 picks from one another. Why then would you want to take someone there and pay him #5 money if you are not completely convinced the guy will be a great fit for your football team? I suppose you could argue that each guy would fill a specific need and that the Browns would have their choice among many great options at #5; I just don’t see that being more advantageous than trading back.
If there was a player at #5 that I personally thought could come in and make the Browns a playoff contender next season, or who is extremely likely be a future superstar, I’d be all for holding the #5 pick and taking him. I don’t believe that to be the case, so I am hoping to see the Browns trade out of the #5 slot.
But to whom?
Depending on who falls to #5, the Browns could have a variety of teams interested in moving up. The best case scenario for the Browns is to have Mark Sanchez sitting there, as teams are always willing to pay more to get a QB they covet. One of the teams most widely rumored to be considering a trade up for Sanchez is the Denver Broncos.
As with all rumors this time of year, there is information out there on both sides. I’ve seen it reported that the Broncos want to package their two No. 1′s (picks 12 and 18) for a move up to draft Sanchez. I’ve also seen it reported that it’s all a ruse and the Broncos just want other teams to think that they want Sanchez.
So who the hell knows.
I do know this: I do not want to see the Browns trade Brady Quinn and draft Mark Sanchez as the “quarterback of the future.” First, I don’t think Quinn has really gotten a chance to show what he can do, and we already traded picks to make him our first round selection a couple years ago. Plus, we have Derek Anderson, who at least has successful NFL starting experience in his past.
Second, I am not the least bit sold on Mark Sanchez as a future franchise QB, mainly because he’s an underclassmen going pro early with only 16 career starts. There is no way this guy will be ready to lead an NFL team for 2-3 years at the earliest, and there is simply too much unknown about him with only 16 games of tape to watch.
All that being said, why not split the difference with the Broncos if they do want to draft Sanchez. Take their #12 pick plus their 2nd rounder (#48) and give them the #5. This still gives them two 1st round picks, but the Browns get to move down into a more manageable draft slot from a contract perspective, they can still get a very good player with their first pick, and they add another mid-round selection in the value-rich 2nd round.
I don’t know what the infamous “draft value chart” would say about this trade, but I don’t care. The Browns need a lot of good, young players to build around. I’d rather increase my odds of improving the roster with two of the best 48 players in the draft as opposed to one of the top 5, especially when there seems to be so much debate over who the five best players really are in this year’s draft.
Dream Scenario #2: The Browns trade their #5 pick in the 1st round to the Broncos for Denver’s #12 pick and #48 pick.
Okay, let’s assess the damage here. If my two dream scenarios above were to come to fruition, here are the first-day picks the Browns would have (in addition to adding Domenik Hixon and a 5th rounder from the Giants):
- 1st round, #12 (from Denver)
- 2nd round, #36
- 2nd round, #45 (from New York)
- 2nd round, #48 (from Denver)
Contrast that with what they have right now:
- 1st round, #5
- 2nd round, #36
- A disgruntled and drop-happy Braylon Edwards
I don’t know about you, but I like the first scenario a lot more.
So, who could the four first-day picks turn into? Here is what I personally would love to see happen; and remember, this is a dream scenario, so while I’m trying to be realistic, forgive me if this sounds a bit hopeful:
#12 pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
With the draft seemingly devoid of CB depth, and the other CBs likely to be gone by the 36th selection, I like the value here. There are questions about Jenkins’ speed and whether or not he’d have to move to safety, but at the end of the day he’s a playmaker. The Browns need playmakers and smart football players in the secondary. Plus, while many Ohio State linebackers have underperformed expectations at the NFL level, many Ohio State defensive backs drafted in the first round have done well (Antonio Winfield, Nate Clements, Chris Gamble).
Wherever he ends up playing, CB or S, Malcolm Jenkins is a good, solid football player with the instincts to someday be great. It would be nice if Brian Orakpo fell here, but most mock drafts do not have him getting past the Bills at #11. Other options could include Beanie Wells, Brian Cushing, or pash-rushing ends like Robert Ayers and Aaron Maybin.
I say swapping the Wolverine Edwards with the Buckeye Jenkins improves the defense and gives Browns fans something to get excited about; but most importantly, they get a player good enough to step in, fill a void in the secondary, and play from Day One.
#36 pick: Paul Kruger, OLB, Utah
To be honest, this is hardest pick to predict. So much will depend on who the Browns draft in Round 1 and who unexpectedly falls to the second round.
Paul Kruger is who Todd McShay has the Browns picking at #36 in his mock draft, and I don’t see why not. The Browns need young but mature linebackers to team up with the solid D’Qwell Jackson, and Kruger seems like a solid fit. He is big (6’4, 263 pounds) and described in his Scouts Inc. profile as “a person of very good character. A hard worker and leader by example.” Kruger will be a 23-year old rookie as he served a two-year mission in 2005 and 2006.
I’m not sure this is necessarily a “sexy” pick that will have Browns fans yelping with excitement, but it does seem like a very solid pick and Kruger appears to be the type of hard-nosed, high-character, smart guy the Browns would want to rebuild build around.
I could see the Browns going in another direction and trying to pick a DB here if they don’t trade back and get Jenkins in Round 1. If they do get Jenkins, obviously I doubt they’d pick another DB. Other potential options here include DE Larry English, OLB James Laurinaitis, DT Evander Hood, or C Alex Mack, but again, it all depends on who falls.
#45 pick: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State
I said this is a dream scenario, right?
What could be more of a dream for Browns fans like our very own Ryan Russell than getting rid of Braylon Edwards and bringing in two Buckeyes. I didn’t necessarily set out to have it happen this way, but Jenkins and Robiskie both appear to be solid values at their respective slots who fill specific needs for the Browns.
Robiskie is just a good, solid football player. I don’t know if he will ever be a Pro Bowl WR, but I think he can be a good to very good NFL wide receiver for 10-12 years.
With the Browns not having Braylon Edwards (in this scenario), Kellen Winslow, Joe Jurevicius, or (probably) Donte Stallworth, they obviously need a WR. Most likely, guys like Kenny Britt, Hakeen Nicks, and Percy Harvin will not be available at #36, which is fine with me. I’ve read various reports of red flags about each (ego with Britt, curious weight gains and losses with Nicks, and the infamous failed Combine drug test story, and others, about Harvin). Who knows how much stock to put into what could be disinformation, but I’d rather be safe than sorry.
With Robiskie, the son of longtime NFL coach Terry Robiskie, all you read about is his professionalism and production. That’s what the Browns need to build around. I can’t imagine a safer pick that fits more perfectly in terms of need than Brian Robiskie at #45. Another option here could be Mohamed Massaquoi from Georiga, who is rapidly rising up draft boards. I personally doubt he’ll be here with this pick, and besides, ew might as well pick the Buckeye, right?
#48 pick: LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh
Jamal Lewis ‘aint getting any younger, and Jerome Harrison is much better suited as a third down, change of pace type back than an everydown runner. Getting LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round, I think, would be a great value for the Browns and fill a specific need of an everydown back who can team with Jamal Lewis this year and then ultimately become the #1 ball carrier for the Browns.
McCoy appears to have no characters red flags, has good speed, and was incredibly productive during his two seasons at Pitt. In addition, having only taken two seasons of collegiate pounding, he should, in theory at least, have a little more tread on his tires than some other backs who played 3 or 4 years in college. Other options here could include SS Patrick Chung or DE Michael Johnson, all depending on how the picks fall.
It is obviously hard to know who will be available at the later round picks. Depending on who falls out of the first round, there could certainly be a better pick than Paul Kruger at #36. But trading back to get Malcolm Jenkins, and then landing Robiskie and McCoy later in Round 2 would, in my opinion, be a great first day haul for the Browns. Each guy is a potential contributor as soon as this season, and each guy is a solid building block for the future. At the end of the day, the Browns couldn’t ask for much more coming out of today.
Again, lets do a quick comparison. First, the results of my dream scenario, and then the results of the Browns standing pat and picking where they are currently slotted:
My dream draft scenario for the Browns:
- CB Malcolm Jenkins
- OLB Paul Kruger (or someone who unexpectedly slips out of the first round)
- WR Brian Robiskie
- RB LeSean McCoy
- WR Domenik Hixon
- plus the Giants 5th round pick.
Likely scenario if the Browns stand pat:
- LB Aaron Curry/DT BJ Raji/WR Michael Crabtree/OLB Brian Orakpo
- OLB Paul Kruger (or someone who unexpectly slips out of the first round)
- one more year with Braylon Edwards
For me, the first scenario seems to set the Browns up better for long-term success, although perhaps not as well for 2009. But I think the organization would be much better served by taking a long-term approach as opposed to throwing all their eggs in the 2009 basket. We threw all of our eggs into the the 2008 basket and it got us a 4-12 season, no 3rd round pick this year, and has compelled us to have to think in terms of rebuilding.
Fine. But let’s rebuild the right way: with extra draft picks that result in solid players and a roster with both depth and talent.
I don’t know the chances of the above scenario actually happening – probably pretty slim – but I do think it presents the kind of thinking that, in my opinion at least, provides the most likely road map to the kind of sustained future success that the Browns have never had since returning to the NFL.
I’d love to get your thoughts/comments below. Now it’s time to sit back and see what actually happens.
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