And then there were eight.
The second round of the WBC odds is virtually set, as all eight berths are already determined and the only remaining first-round matchup is tonight’s Cuba-Mexico tilt, which will determine the Pool B winner and each team’s seeding in round two.
There were multiple sportsbook surprises in the first round. Few online betting experts thought Canada would fall to Italy on its home soil, and Korea and Venezuela won rematches with Japan and the U.S., respectively, after being trounced the first time around. By far the biggest shocker of round one, though, was the Netherlands’ two victories over the Dominican Republic, which knocked the odds-on favorite out of WBC betting.
Who takes over as the offshore sportsbook favorite with the powerful Dominicans gone from the tournament? Let’s look at each new group in the World Baseball Classic odds.
GROUP 1
The Cuba/Mexico game will determine the matchups here, but you have to wonder if either team wants to win tonight. Since Korea shocked Japan in the Pool-A-clinching game, the winner of tonight’s contest has to face the defending champions while the loser may get the easier matchup in Korea.
Korea looks like the Cinderella team of this group; I can’t see it pulling off another upset over any of the other teams. Even Mexico, who was probably a bigger online betting underdog than Korea a week ago, is truly on the rise as a baseball nation. Adrian Gonzalez is crushing the ball and should keep the Mexicans competitive.
Those who bet sports still have to believe Group 1 will come down to Cuba versus Japan. The Cubans will certainly offer better sportsbook value, but Japan’s pitching should propel it to the Group 1 title. Overall, bet on Cuba and Japan to win the two semifinal berths from this group.
GROUP 2
The Netherlands’ inspiring story has a March Madness betting feel to it, don’t you think? Sadly, Group 2 should be the end of the road for the Dutch. The Dominicans were vulnerable, weakened by off-field distractions and a plethora of high-profile dropouts (Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols, among many others). The Venezuelans looked highly motivated in Pool C and seem to have a passionate group of fans following them to every game. They should beat the Netherlands on Saturday and the Dutch shouldn’t stand much of a chance against the mighty U.S. and especially Puerto Rico, which already dusted them twice in the first round.
The deep American team has the best sportsbook odds win Group 2 and reach the semifinal. Undefeated Puerto Rico has to be the other favorite, but Venezuela could surprise; it gained momentum by winning Pool C and it can virtually match Puerto Rico in the pitching department. Why not take a flier and pick Venezuela to join the U.S. as a semifinalist?
