Dewayne Hoping to Become Wise Decision in Center for Ozzie Guillen — Is He?

by Jerod @ 2009-03-14 No Comments Email Post

Let me just say before beginning that I am not passing along the pun in the title of this post as my own. It’s not that I explicitly heard or read it somewhere else, but I cannot imagine that I’m the first person to be so lame and turdly creative.

But if Dewayne Wise ends up becoming the White Sox everyday centerfielder, you can bet that more losers bloggers like me will be trying to come up with creative puns using Dewayne’s last name. We can only hope that the puns are descriptive, and not ironic; because if Dewayne Wise is the choice in centerfield, the White Sox need it to work out.

Based on his track record, however, Dewayne Wise has not proven that he can be an everyday Major League player — let alone the leadoff man in a high-powered offense. And at 31, can we really expect a career renaissance from a player who has never had more than 162 ABs in a season?

Look, I don’t want to be the proverbial turd in the punch bowl here because Dewayne is having a great spring and I really like the value he brings to the 25-man roster. And I have gone on record numerous occasions stating that I think Ken Williams is awesome and that I wouldn’t want any other GM on the South Side. But the one critique I would offer is that Ken Williams has not filled our gaping holes in center field and at the top of the order that have been consistent over the last few years.. Last year, we overcame it to win the AL Central.

Do we want to roll the dice that we can do it again?

This spring, Dewayne Wise is competing with Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson for centerfield slot. Let’s take a look at each’s career numbers and their numbers this spring. I’m only listing a few numbers here, but you can use the links to see their full statistics.

Dewayne Wise (31 on Opening Day)

Minor League Career: 3,555 AB, 90 HR, 186 SB, .259 BA, .310 OBP, .422 SLG
Major League Career: 468 AB, 15 HR, 21 SB, .214 BA, .254 OBP, .450 SLG
Spring Training 2009: 23 AB, 1 HR, 1 SB, .391 BA, .375 OBP, .652 SLG (through 3/14)

Jerry Owens (28 on Opening Day)

Minor League Career: 1,970 AB, 11 HR, 162 SB, .291 BA, .359 OBP, .359 SLG
Major League Career: 381 AB, 1 HR, 35 SB, .268 BA, .321 OBP, .312 SLG
Spring Training 2009: 35 AB, 0 HR, 0 SB, 3 CS, .200 BA, .310 OBP, .200 SLG

Brian Anderson (27 on Opening Day)

Minor League Career: 1,136 AB, 38 HR, 23 SB, .293 BA, .361 OBP, .474 SLG
Major League Career: 597 AB, 18 HR, 10 SB, .221 BA, .277 OBP, .379 SLG
Spring Traning 2009: 30 AB, 1 HR, 0 SB, .200 BA, .306 OBP, .300 SLG

I have never been one to put a lot of stock in Spring Training numbers. The sample sizes are small and there are too many variables that make it hard to compare numbers between players and project in-season success for the coming year.

When I look at the battle between Dewayne Wise, Jerry Owens, and Brian Anderson, there are a few criteria that look at for who I think should be the starter in center:

Who gets on base more?
Who has speed to make something happen on the basepaths?
Who projects as the best leadoff hitter?
Who can cover the most ground in the outfield?

Who gets on base more?

Obviously Dewayne Wise’s numbers dwarf those of Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson this spring. But look at the career numbers. Wise’s .254 OBP as a Major Leaguer is not encouraging, nor is his .310 OBP in the minors. Brian Anderson actually has a .361 OBP in the minors, but that drops to .277 as a Major Leaguer. Jerry Owens, on the other hand, while not setting any records, has a .359 OBP in 1,970 minor league ABs and a .321 OBP as a Major Leaguer.

I don’t think we can expect any of these three guys to play significantly above or below their career averages, and Owens has proven himself to be the more consistent of three in getting on base, despite his struggles through 35 ABs this spring.

Who has more speed to make something happen on the basepaths?

Yes, Jerry Owens has not stolen a base this spring. And yes, he has actually been caught stealing 3 times. But Owens has a SB success rate of greater than 70% during his minor league and major league career, and he already has a season in the majors in which he has stolen 32 bases. Dewayne Wise can steal bases, but certainly not in the quantity that Jerry Owens can. We basically have no other source of top-of-the-order speed, and Jerry Owens is one of the few players in the organization who can help us evolve from the station-to-station baseball we have been playing over the past few years.

Who projects as the best leadoff hitter?

Well, if Jerry Owens has had the most success getting on base in his career, and of he is the most prolific base stealer, I think that qualifies him as the best leadoff hitter out of Dewayne Wise and Brian Anderson. Wise and Anderson are much more suited to bottom-of-the-order spots in the lineup, but we have Josh Fields and whoever keeps 2B warm for Gordon Beckham to hit at the bottom of the order. We need someone to set the table and make things happen at the top of the order. That’s Jerry Owens.

Who can cover the most ground in the outfield?

All three of these guys are competent CFs defensively. Brian Anderson is probably the best defensive player overall, which makes him a solid bench player and late-inning defensive sub. Dewayne Wise can play some defense too, and his speed and range are comparable to that of Owens. Wise has made 4 errors in 240 major league games, while Owens has made 2 in 94 major league games. I don’t think Anderson and Wise are appreciably better than Owens in the outfield, at least not enough to overcome the offensive advantage that I think Owens provides.

At the end of the day, Dewayne Wise is having the best spring (as you can see from the links below) and Brian Anderson has the most Major League experience. And both have better power potential and higher SLG prowess than Jerry Owens.

But do we need more power and slugging in our lineup?

I don’t think so. We need more diversity and a greater variety of ways to score and put pressure on opposing pitching staffs and defenses. Jerry Owens is by no means a perfect choice to be an everyday CF and leadoff hitter, but he is the best the White Sox have right now. I do think that both Wise and Anderson should be on the Major League roster, and serve as a solid #4 and #5 OFs for purposes of depth, bats off the bench, and defensive replacements.

But the White Sox want a more dynamic offense, and one that has a chance to score runs without hitting home runs, I think Jerry Owens needs to get the first crack at CF and the leadoff spot when Opening Day rolls around.

What do you think?

Who should be the White Sox starting center fielder?

How old is Lance Johnson and what is he doing these days?

Jerry Owens

Brian Anderson

Dewayne Wise

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