This post will analyze the Oklahoma-Syracuse game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
I know I’ve been saying for this most of these Sweet 16 previews, but this is going to be a really good game. I guess when you’re broken an entire season down to a 16-game tournament, you expect the majority of the games to be between high profile, very good teams.
Oklahoma was thought by many to be a #1 seed for most of the season. Then Blake Griffin got hurt, the Sooners lost a few games, and never really got their swagger back during the regular season or Big 12 Tournament. They have rebounded for two victories in rounds one and two, but something about this team still just feels a bit off from where they were before the Griffin injury.
Syracuse is still be riding a wave of momentum from their thrilling 6-OT victory over UConn in the Big East tournament. The ‘Cuse fell short against Louisville in the Big East Championship game, but won both of their first tournament games by double digits. And with a point guard like Jonny Flynn, shooters like Devendorf and Rautins, and a tough interior player like Paul Harris, you have to think Syracuse has a chance to beatany team still standing.
What’s in store tomorrow night? Here are the particulars:
Oklahoma v Syracuse Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction
- StubHub: South Region Sweet 16 Tickets
- South Regional Breakdown
- Date: Friday, March 27
- TV Time: 7:27 PM on CBS
- Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
- Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
- Point Spread: Oklahoma -1
- Over-Under: 153 1/2
- My prediction: originally it was Oklahoma…now I’m not so sure. Read on.
Let’s jump right into the Game Predictor analysis, using the same statistical categories we’ve used for all of the other Sweet 16 previews.
- Offensive Efficiency: Syracuse – 1.077 | Oklahoma – 1.123
- Defensive Efficiency: Syracuse – 0.965 | Oklahoma – 0.955
- Assist/TO Ratio: Syracuse – 1.243 | Oklahoma – 1.120
- Free Throw %: Syracuse – 0.645 | Oklahoma – 0.676
- Defensive Field Goal %: Syracuse – 0.408 | Oklahoma – 0.394
And now the prediction. It is definitely the closest one I have seen so far, which makes perfect sense to me. Similar seeds, probably very similar strength of schedules, with Oklahoma being slightly better overall with respect to the stats analyzed above.
- Odds to Win Game: Syracuse – 48.8% | Oklahoma – 51.2%
- Most Likely Final Score: Syracuse – 66.7 | Oklahoma – 67.7
- Odds to Cover Spread (Syracuse +1): Syracuse – 51.5% | Oklahoma – 48.5%
- Confidence Level: 1 Star
Man, this is a though one. Even the Game Predictor has a confidence level of only one star, making this basically a pick ‘em game.
I like the way that Syracuse is playing right now and I definitely like the experience and proven clutch ability of their backcourt. But Oklahoma obviously has the best player on the court in Blake Griffin. And as we know, more often than not in basketball, the team with the best player wins. I’m not saying all the time, or even more than 55-45, but if you put your money on the team with the best player I think you would win more than you lose.
But I’m going against that here, and I’m going against Game Predictor.
Perhaps I am still thinking too much about the 6-OT game, but there is just something I like about this Syracuse team. This is not a team that will dominate you inside, and they will have their hands full with Blake Griffin, but Syracuse is tough mentally and physically and has a floor general in Jonny Flynn who has a motor that never stops.
Plus, the old cliche is that tournaments are won by the team that gets hot at the right time.
Syracuse won their last four regular season games, made it to the Big East championship, and won by double figures in their first two tourney games. Oklahoma lost three out of their last five regular season games, choked in the Big 12 tournament, and struggled with Michigan before putting them away late. In a game this close, with such a razor thin margin of difference, I think Syracuse’s roll supersedes Blake Griffin’s greatness.
I’m going with Syracuse, straight up. And hoping for overtime.
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