Sweet 16 Betting: Picks and Analysis of Each Game
The March Madness odds continue and it’s hard to believe we’re already down to just 16 teams. Here’s what we know so far: (a) Cleveland State’s win over Wake Forest is the upset of the tournament right now; (b) Blake Griffin is justifying his projected NBA No. 1 overall draft pick status; (c) President Obama’s Final Four remains intact; and (d) some major bad karma should follow Missouri into the Sweet 16 odds.
Let’s break down what should be an extremely tight round of March Madness betting. (Editor’s note: All picks are straight up, not against the spread. Go to the homepage and check out the recent game-by-game posts for a closer look at how to pick these games against the spread.)
EAST REGION
No. 1 Pittsburgh Panthers vs No. 4 Xavier Musketeers
Xavier is like the plucky little kid trying to measure up to his older brother in this NCAA basketball betting matchup. What do the Musketeers do best? Play defense and rebound like crazy. They showed off those skills in the first two rounds of the tournament, totally stymieing Wisconsin in the round of 32 after shooting the lights out against Portland State.
Problem: Pittsburgh battles the same way Xavier does and does it better. While the Musketeers are fifth in the nation in rebounding, the Panthers are second. Pittsburgh will eke out a win here thanks to superior backcourt talent with Levance Fields leading the way alongside outstanding big man DeJuan Blair.
Online betting pick: Pittsburgh
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 3 Villanova Wildcats
Playing in the powerful Big East, Villanova has flown under the radar for much of the season. This weekend, the Wildcats be outed as major contenders when they knock off the Blue Devils. Duke’s overreliance on perimeter shooting doesn’t bode well against the defensively sound Villanova. Expect the Wildcats to control the pace and reach the Elite 8.
Online betting pick: Villanova
SOUTH REGION
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs
There aren’t too many “pretenders†left in the March Madness betting field, but Gonzaga is close. Yeah, the Bulldogs put up some points against Akron and Western Kentucky, but those were No. 13 and No. 12 seeds, respectively. Gonzaga barely survived those matchups, coming from behind to beat Akron and downing Western Kentucky with a last-second shot.
Jumping from that competition to No. 1 North Carolina, still the odds-on sportsbook favorite to win the March Madness odds, will be too much for the ’Zags to handle. The Tar Heels should drop major points on the Bulldogs in a high-scoring affair here. Bet on North Carolina, who should keep getting better with Ty Lawson regaining his form.
Online betting pick: North Carolina
No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners vs No. 3 Syracuse Orange
It’s Blake Griffin Versus the World in what could be the closest of all the Sweet 16 lines. Well, maybe that’s an overstatement, but the point is that Griffin has been the force of the Tournament so far, averaging 30.5 points and 15 rebounds. Is Syracuse up to the task after breezing through the first two rounds?
I say yes. The Orange are a potent offensive unit with well-distributed scoring; five different Orange players averaged 10 or more points per game this regular season. The Orange offense can top Griffin’s inevitable powerhouse performance and guard Jonny Flynn has been sensational. Bet on Syracuse to pull off what some online betting experts would call a minor upset.
Online betting pick: Syracuse
WEST REGION
No. 1 Connecticut Huskies vs No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers
So, uh…Connecticut did pretty well in its first two March Madness betting contests, averaging a 46-point victory margin. Does that mean the Huskies are extremely sharp or extremely untested? Only time will tell. What we do know is that Purdue enters the Sweet 16 nicely battle-hardened, being the only No. 5 seed to avoid the dreaded 5/12 loss and grinding out a tough win over Washington. Center JaJuan Johnson in particular has stepped up his play and will need to maintain that high standard against UConn.
It’s tempting to pick Purdue to pull off the sportsbook upset here, but UConn sure isn’t getting much respect for a No. 1 seed. Better to have the Huskies surprise you with a loss than to pick the No. 5 seed and kick yourself afterwards. Go with Connecticut until they prove you wrong.
Online betting pick: Connecticut
No. 2 Memphis Tigers vs No. 3 Missouri Tigers
It just doesn’t feel right picking Missouri. For one, J.T. Tiller’s convenient last-second injury, which allowed Kim English to shoot the game-winning free throws in his place, seemed shady. Missouri also got pretty darn lucky when Marquette’s Lazar Hayward blew the game by stepping on the baseline during an inbound.
Karma aside, Memphis is still be better of the two March Madness picks here. It got its major scare out of the way in the first round and should ride its outstanding defense to the Elite 8 and maybe the Final Four.
Online betting pick: Memphis
MIDWEST REGION
No. 1 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 12 Arizona Wildcats
Like them or not, the Arizona Cardinals have impressed in the March Madness odds after many detractors felt they shouldn’t have qualified for the tournament at all. Many online betting sharps correctly predicted their upset over Utah in the first round and they had the lucky draw of No. 13 Cleveland State in the second round, so the Wildcats haven’t really been tested.
Louisville, the top overall seed in the tourney, won’t be like anything the Wildcats have faced so far. This may be the only Sweet 16 betting matchup with blow-out potential.
Online betting pick: Louisville
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks
Still feels weird to see Michigan State seeded higher than Kansas, doesn’t it? Most basketball betting fans didn’t expect much from Kansas in its attempted national title defense after the Jayhawks lost all their starters from last year’s team. However, they’ve looked very impressive early, riding the torrid play of Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins.
A couple of weeks ago, Michigan State would have been the consensus sportsbook pick here, but the Spartans had their hands full with USC and may not have an answer if Aldrich does anything close to the triple-double he posted against Dayton. Bet on Kansas to win one more round.
Online betting pick: Kansas
Tags: 2009 NCAA Tournament, College Basketball, Kansas Jayhawks, Louisville Cardinals, march madness, Michigan State Spartans, missouri tigers, oklahoma sooners, Purdue Boilermakers, Xavier Musketeers
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Not sure who the uninformed individual who wrote this was. Mizzou put in a true freshman with 5.5 seconds left on the clock, who shoots 65% for the year. the injured player he replaced (J.T. Tiller) was a 78% shooter. They had a 80% shooter on the bench who could have come in. Following the accepted rules for injured players, CMA inserted another player. The Bad Karma you’re speaking of hopefully will fall on you the author of this garbage. How they allow people who don’t research befor they write to contribute is beyond me.
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Josh Reply:
March 25th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
i dunno, looks like you’re reading into something that isn’t in the article man. I agree with the author. Did you watch the game? Tiller looked fine when he went down, English was feelin’ it, coach wanted him in there. Even the announcers were suggesting that it was an intentional tactic. Are you gonna drag CBS’ name through the mud too?
You talk about being uninformed — how can you make mean-spirited remarks like that when you clearly didn’t even watch the game?
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JRod Reply:
March 25th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
@mutigers1, I agree with the basic point of your argument — that Mizzou was well within the rules to do what they did. However, this article’s author was clearly not the only person to at least suggest that the move may not have been entirely for reasons of injury. To each his own. (In fact, there was a much more “egregious” instance of this in the Baylor women’s game last night.)
Thanks for your visit though, and for your passionate defense of your team. The Mizzou-Memphis game will be a good one.
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