This post will analyze the Louisville-Arizona game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
Two coaching titans will take to the floor Friday night when the Louisville Cardinals meet up with the Arizona Wildcats.
The Louisville Cardinals are led by Mr. White Suit himself Rick Pitino, a man who was born to be a college basketball coach and who has been successful at every stop along his college basketball path (and we’ll just forget about the whole Celtics thing…).
Pitino went to the Final Four with Providence, led by Billy Donovan and his short shorts. After leaving Providence, Pitino built upon the storied tradition in Lexington by going 219-50 at Kentucky and winning one National Championship, reaching two other Final Fours, two other Elite 8′s, and never losing in the first round of the tournament. And now at Louisville, Pitino is at it again, with a 199-87 record, already one Final Four appearance, and a championship this season in the conference that many have said is the best ever.
The Arizona Wildcats are led by Lute Olson, who has ammassed 781 wins during his storied career, with stops at Long Beach State, Iowa, and Arizona. His Wildcats made the NCAA Tournament every year between 1985 and 2007, winning the National Championship in 1997. And now, Olson has his troops on the precipice of another Elite Ei–
Wait — what? I’m an idiot Midwesterner you say…and Lute Olson isn’t coaching Arizona? And they’re playing in the Sweet 16?! Okay…but who the hell is Russ Pennell?
Well, in the irony of all ironies, here is the first hit for a google search on Russ Pennell’s name: his bio at the Arizona…State website. And here is the Russ Pennell basketball bio, as described by Pat Forde of ESPN:
Until May 2008, he had been out of coaching for four years — working as a radio analyst and directing a basketball academy in Phoenix. Prior to that, he had worked under Rob Evans until he was fired at Arizona State and previously at Mississippi. And there was a two-year stint at Oklahoma State under Eddie Sutton.
Yet here he is in the Sweet 16, a man whose de facto job title is Coach Until He Loses. Now the trick is to beat a couple of coaching legends and remain employed as long as he can.
No matter what, that tenure doesn’t figure to last past April 6. This isn’t a Steve Fisher story, or a Steve Lavin story, or a Mike Davis story. No matter how well he has done in a difficult spot, the interim guy won’t be rewarded with the full-time job.
So, we have a guy who is 8-0 in Sweet 16 games, has 521 victories, and wears badass pimp suits (Pitino), going up against a guy who has 21 career victories, was a radio analyst at this time last year, and who has ostensibly no shot at getting the full-time gig after this season (Pennell).
Oh yeah, this is fair.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go try and shake the words “a Mike Davis story” out of my head, otherwise I’ll have nightmares tonight.
Louisville v Arizona Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction
- StubHub: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Tickets
- Midwest Regional Breakdown
- Date: Friday, March 27
- TV Time: 7:07 PM on CBS
- Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
- Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
- Point Spread: Louisville -9 1/2
- Over-Under: 139
- My prediction: Louisville
Okay, time now to hop on over to the Game Predictor and see what it says about this game. I have a very strong feeling that this will be the most lopsided of the projections, especially considering the seed differential and strength of schedule differential between these two teams.
Here is the breakdown of the five statistical categories we have been analyzing for each game:
- Offensive Efficiency: Louisville – 1.054 | Arizona – 1.095
- Defensive Efficiency: Louisville – 0.878 | Arizona – 1.030
- Assist/TO Ratio: Louisville – 1.244 | Arizona – 1.141
- Free Throw %: Louisville – 0.639 | Arizona – 0.739
- Defensive Field Goal %: Louisville – 0.396 | Arizona – 0.433
Wow…the differential between the two teams in defensive efficiency rating is staggering. Considering Louisville is from the Big East and Arizona is from the Pac-10, it is not all that surprising though. And yes, I am stereotyping and saying that teams eest of the Mississippi tend to play better defense than teams west of it. But that’s an analysis for another day.
Here is the Game Predictor projection for the Louisville-Arizona game:
- Odds to Win Game: Louisville – 86.3% | Arizona – 13.7%
- Most Likely Final Score: Louisville – 75.7 | Arizona – 65.7
- Odds to Cover Spread (Arizona +9.5): Louisville – 51.9% | Arizona – 48.1%
- Confidence Level: 5 Stars
Damn. Looks like Louisville is the favorite huh? Well, like I said, these results are not all that unexpected. And the Game Predictor is obviously quite confident about it, as their confidence level is at 5 stars.
Obviously, I think Louisville will win this game. More importantly, I think they will cover the spread as well.
Arizona is a nice team with a core of talented players, but Louisville is a great team with a great coach. Now, I think Louisville will lose to whoever wins the Michigan State-Kansas game, but I do not 
think they will have a problem disposing of Arizona. The Wildcats simply do not play the kind of defense that can slow down Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, and the rest of the Cardinal attack. Arizona might be able to keep it close early, but I think this game turns into a 20-25 point blowout in the second half.
It’s been a nice run for Russ Pennell, and the Wildcats have provided a little drama by being the only double-digit seed in the tournament, but let’s not get carried away here. They had a nice victory over #5 seed Utah and then beat a #13 seed (albeit a good and talented one in Cleveland State) in round two. Playing Louisville is a couple notches up the rung and while the Wildcats have the talent to play with Louisville for 40 minutes on a given night, I do not think they have the defensive consistency nor the sideline leadership to warrant the forecast of a close one Friday night.
Friday night, Rick Pitino will move to 9-0 in the Sweet 16 and get one step closer to a Final Four. Russ Pennell will most likely begin his search for another job. But hey — making it to the Sweet 16 as an unlikely head coach for Arizona is a great story for Russ Pennell. Arizona may be able to take his job, but they’ll never be able to take the pleasant memory of this season away.
Loading ...
About Jerod Morris
