This post will analyze the Kansas-Michigan State game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
Now that the Thursday Sweet 16 games all have previews, it is time to turn our attention towards Friday. And 
from a Midwest perspective, it is pretty easy to see which game has the most relevance: Kansas-Michigan State.
The Jayhawks are attempting to defend their 2008 National Championship with a bevy of new faces, while the Spartans are looking to reach the Final Four in Detroit so they can battle for the 2009 National Championship in their own backyard.
I fully expected Michigan State to be here, as I predicted them to reach the Final Four before the tournament started. They have not disappointed, handling Robert Morris in round one and then outlasting a very talented USC team in round two.
My prognostication for Kansas was…well…not so good.
I predicted that Kansas would lose to North Dakota State in round one and that it would be the upset of of the tournament. While the game was competitive, Kansas controlled the final ten minutes and advanced. Then they beat Dayton to reach the Sweet 16 and further kill my bracket.
While both teams were tested in round two, they will each play perhaps their toughest game of the season on Friday night. Tom Izzo and Bill Self are two experienced coaches, each with National Championships on their resume, who took over proud programs from coaching legends and have maintained, if not improved, the success and stature of their programs.
None of the other seven Sweet 16 games feature the combined star power and success of the two coaches in this game. That is just one of many reasons why this is the game I am most looking forward to on Friday.
Here are the particulars:
Michigan State-Kansas Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction
- StubHub: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Tickets
- Midwest Regional Breakdown
- Date: Friday, March 27
- TV Time: 9:37 PM on CBS
- Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
- Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
- Point Spread: Michigan State -2 1/2
- Over-Under: 138 1/2
- My prediction: Michigan State
With most of the other games that I have used the Game Predictor to analyze, I’ve had a pretty good idea about who would be predicted the winner. I did not think that Duke and Memphis would be quite as favored by the Game Predictor as they were against Villanova and Missouri, respectively; but, I can’t say I was necessarily surprised. As I head over to the Game Predictor now to enter the stats and find out its prediction for this game, I have no clue.
My best guess would be that Michigan State ends up favored by 3 or 4 points because they have a higher seed and probably played a tougher schedule. But who knows. (If that ends up being the Game Predictor output, don’t accuse me of cheating. I haven’t looked yet!)
Here we go, the Game Predictor analysis for the five statistical categories that we have used to analyze each of the other Sweet 16 games:
- Offensive Efficiency: Michigan State – 1.058 | Kansas – 1.080
- Defensive Efficiency: Michigan State – 0.925 | Kansas – 0.919
- Assist/TO Ratio: Michigan State – 1.167 | Kansas – 1.083
- Free Throw %: Michigan State – 0.692 | Kansas – 0.725
- Defensive Field Goal %: Michigan State – 0.414 | Kansas – 0.382
And now the expected winner, which — surprise, surprise — went to the higher seed despite the lower seed winning the majority of the five categories:
- Odds to Win Game: Michigan State – 55.1% | Kansas – 44.9%
- Most Likely Final Score: Michigan State – 69.5 | Kansas – 67.6
- Odds to Cover Spread (KU +1.5): Michigan State – 52.7% | Kansas – 47.3%
- Pick Confidence: 2 Stars
So, looks my prediction was pretty close to accurate — about one point off.
It is interesting to note that the pick confidence was only two stars. It was at least three or four in the predictions for the Thursday games, showing just how evenly matched these two teams are. However, when I look at what the Game Predictor says, I have to say that I agree — for the most part — on the Michigan State victory.
I think.
Maybe.
Sophomore point guard Kalin Lucas is the engine that makes Michigan State go. He is averaging 14.6 points and 4.5 assists per game on the season. He is an outstanding player and the matc
hup between he and Sherron Collins is going to be great. Collins, the main ballhandler for the Jayhawks, averages 18.9 points and 5.0 assists on the year. I wonder if Michigan State will put defensive stalwart Travis Walton on Collins? Either way, if you can shut down Lucas or Collins, you can seriously thwart the Spartans’ or Jayhawks’ attack. I look for both guys to rise to the occasion and have very good games battling mano-a-mano.
The X-factor for Kansas is Cole Aldrich. He can be spectacular, as he has been so far in the tournaments, totaling 36 points and 33 rebounds over two games. However, take note: Kansas’ last three losses all came in games in which Aldrich scored 8 points. Not coincidentally, those were his three lowest point outputs of the season and two of them came against non-tourney teams Texas Tech and Baylor. When Aldrich is playing well, he provides an excellent dimension to their attack and makes the Jayhawks one of the best teams in America. When he struggles, so does Kansas. Fortunately for Jayhawk fans, Aldrich has played pretty consistently outside of those few poor performances.
The X-factor for Michigan State is, as always, Raymar Morgan. He is as talented as anyone on the floor, but as Big Ten fans know well, you never really know when Raymar Morgan will actually show up. When Michigan State beat Kansas earlier this year, Morgan scored 13 points and had 8 rebounds. That should be an average night for him, but it is one of the best games he’s had since January 1. He has battled injuries and inconsistency, but Michigan State needs him to step up and be a force Friday night. He played well against Robert Morris but disappeared against USC. I don’t think Michigan State can repeat their victory over Kansas if Morgan gives them less than the 13-8 line he gave them on January 10th in East Lansing.
If it comes down to whose X-factor do I trust more? I have to say Aldrich.
When these two teams played in January, Michigan State won 75-62. Lucas and Collins both had great games, which I expect again on Friday night. The difference in the game was the production of Morgan. If he can offset Aldrich, as he basically did in January, then Michigan State has a great chance to win because I think they are deeper and can get scoring contributions from more sources than Kansas. If Collins and Aldrich are on their game, and if Kalin Lucas is forced to be a one-man show without a prominent sidekick to step up and shoulder more than just an ancillary piece of the burden, Michigan State is in trouble.
The more I think about this game, the less I am starting to trust Michigan State.
If it were me, I’d definitely take Kansas with the points. The Spartans won’t be playing this one in the friendly confines of the Breslin Center (thanks Jen!) and Kansas is a much better team now than they were then.
Straight up? It’s close, but I’ll stick with my original pick of Michigan State, but with a very low confidence level. I won’t be surprised either way.
I’ll only be surprised if this game does not come down to the final few possessions.
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