This post will analyze the Pitt-Xavier game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
The Pitt-Xavier Sweet 16 game, which tip off about 20 minutes after Purdue and UConn get going on Thursday night, matches up two of the best young coaches in America: Xavier’s Sean Miller and Pitt’s Jamie Dixon.
Sean Miller is 117-45 in his five seasons as Xavier’s head coach and is coaching in his fourth NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers made the Elite 8 last year and are one win away from doing it again in 2009. A lot of IU fans were clamoring for the Hoosiers to go after Miller before last season. He stayed at Xavier and is building a juggernaut that has to be considered among the top 20 in programs in American right now.
Jamie Dixon is in the 6th season at Pitt and has been just as successful, if not moreso, than Miller. Dixon is 162-44, with a 70% winning percentage in the tough Big East. His Panthers have made three trips to the Sweet 16 (including this year) and have played in the NCAA Tournament in all six of his seasons. The consistency of the Pitt program has been impressive, with the next goal being an Elite 8 and Final Four appearance.
Can Dixon and the Panthers finally make that elusive jump beyond the Sweet 16? They’ll get their chance Thursday night. Here are the particulars for the Pitt-Xavier Sweet 16 showdown:
Pittsburgh-Xavier Preview and Prediction
- StubHub: East Region Sweet 16 Tickets
- East Regional Breakdown
- Date: March 26
- TV Time: 7:27 PM on CBS
- Site: TD Banknorth Garden in Boston, MA
- Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
- Point Spread: Pittsburgh -7
- Over-Under: 139
- My prediction (made Monday before using Game Predictor analysis): Pittsburgh
Full disclosure: I have not seen Xavier play this season but for bits and pieces, so I will have to rely heavily on the Game Predictor analysis on this one. I have, however, seen Pittsburgh play a few times and I agree with the majority of pundits who feel this is a legitimate Final Four team and potential national champion. They won’t blow anyone out, but they win, and they proved themselves in a beast of a conference.
Let’s look at how Game Predictor saw this game, using the five stat categories that I deemed the most significant and used for each of the eight Sweet 16 game predictions.
- Offensive Efficiency: Pitt – 1.141 | Xavier – 1.055
- Defensive Efficiency: Pitt – 0.946 | Xavier – 0.905
- Assist/TO Ratio: Pitt – 1.532 | Xavier – 0.921
- Free Throw %: Pitt – 0.674 | Xavier – 0.674
- Defensive Field Goal %: Pitt – 0.411 | Xavier – 0.388
And based on these stats, Game Predictor offers up the following prediction for the Pitt-Xavier Sweet 16 game:
- Odds to Win Game: Pitt – 84.2% | Xavier – 15.8%
- Most Likely Final Score: Pitt – 72.5 | Xavier – 65.3
- Odds to Cover Spread (Xavier +7): Pitt – 58.5% | Xavier – 41.2%
- Confidence Level: 4 Stars
I was actually surprised at how one-sided the prediction was for Pittsburgh in this case. Obviously Pitt’s offensive efficiency and sterling Assist/TO ration provide a huge advantage. And surprisingly, Xavier is statistically superior in the two defensive categories analyzed. The strength of schedule rating that is automatically factored into the analysis no doubt game Pitt a huge edge, as Xavier’s superior defensive stats were no doubt helped by playing in a much weaker conference than the Big East.
Watching Pitt play, it is hard to imagine anyone in the country being able to compete with the incredible
physical presences of DeJuan Blair and Sam Young on the glass. Add in Levance Fields and you have a trio that is as good as any trio in the nation. I was also really impressed with Jermaine Dixon in the OK State game in Round 2. He only had 6 points in the game, but he made all four of his free throws, helped attack the Oklahoma State pressure while only turning the ball over once, and grabbed 6 rebounds.
Without question, Pitt will be the most physically imposing team that Xavier has played all year.
This is not to say that Xavier has no chance. In fact, I would be more comfortable picking Xavier to upset Pitt than Purdue to upset UConn. Connecticut is more apt to blow teams out early. Pitt, on the other hand, relies on its physical dominance taking a toll on teams and than extending their lead late. If Xavier can pressure Pitt into a few more turnovers than they usually commit, and if the Musketeers can make enough shots to keep the game close, anything can happen in the final 4:00.
I like the Pittsburgh to win in the end though, and to beat the spread in doing so. Xavier is a very good team, led by an outstanding coach, but I think this is the game where Pitt puts it all together. Their coach and their players are sick of hearing about Sweet 16 exits and I think they come out a little extra motivated to put all that talk to rest. In the Year of the Big East, the Panthers keep on marching towards Detroit.
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About Jerod Morris
