Now, I obviously, based on my pick, don’t think it helps enough for them to overcome the Tar Heels in the end. And we agree that UNC ends up playing on Monday night.

I dont get this statement at all. UNC completely took Kansas seriously last year since KU was clearly one of the elite teams last year. They were a number one seed and had some of the best team stats on paper. UNC just had a bad game and KU played great. THat is all.

For many of the reasons you mentioned, I had to side with UNC as the prediction here. I wouldn’t classify them as unbeatable, and I don’t think Villanova necessarily needs to play perfectly to win, but I do think ‘Nova needs to be almost on top of their game and have UNC really play poorly for it to happen.

UNC is clicking on all cylinders and it’s hard to imagine anyone beating them right now.

Gauntlet? Uh, the fact that any two teams play in Final Four is the gauntlet.

Anything can happen in a bball game at collegiate level on a given night. As a Tar Heel alumnus before I attended “The University of the People” (I watched in black’n white; while that dates me, I KNOW anything can happen to any team at the collegiate level. Those of us who have followed Heel ball KNOW that. I watched the 4-C conducted by Ford LIVE. I’ve seen them “drop the ball” in clutch games. Too many trips with so few titles, comparably. I KNOW anything can happen!)

Thus, I don’t “smack-talk” unless I got a pretty good idea about HOW the Heels are playing. I shut up last year. I KNEW they’d drop it. I watched <10 minutes of Kansas and turned off t.v. I KNOW Carolina basketball. (And as former official player and coach, assistant coach, I KINDA know b-ball.)

Last year’s team was not playing at high capacity or intensity going into FF. Winning the ACC Championship has never been good for Heels, as they play NOBODY to get to playing SOMEBODY and OOOPS. Lawson was still recovering from the ankle mess last year. Hansbrough’s hype HURT that team. Mostly, because I’ve taught NCAA Div. I players, as GTA, PSYCHOLOGICALLY, these kids are immature. Or I should say, “emotionally” susceptible? Last year’s team was easily shaken. Roy was tense as well. Again, all the MEDIA on Hansbrough HURT them. They’ve lightened up this year off-court. Including Williams. Why important? Carolina has ALWAYS, ALWAYS, in history of program, played best when chilled. Why? They tend to be intelligent students and players. An intelligent player has the mind as horrific enemy or danged good friend dependent upon prep and mental conditioning. Over the years, I’ve seen Heels’ teams tend to fall to the former. I know it when I see it. It comes and it stays in LONG STREAKS.

In THIS tourney, I’ve seen this Heels team, relaxed with good mental conditioning. Which could go to hell in hand-basket come Saturday. I doubt it, only because chilling off-court relative to intensity on-court is what I’ve seen. (I know it when I see it from The Heels.) Those concepts are juxtaposed and if got any closer they’d be behind each other. (Reverse either for Heels and Nova wins.) And I don’t see Heels suddenly not working that which has been working LIKE THEY DID last year: they kept working something that didn’t work. They had TWO plays: get it into the hyped POY!!! or toss it to Ellington to see if he can make-up for Georgetown bungles in 07. Lawson hit a 3? NO. They lacked sustained focus to say the least. This year Lawson and other guards have gone into gym, aside from team practice, to shoot thousands of 3′s this year. About mid-year they got that uh, ultimatum from Williams and from a nasty fan-base. And they had to hit the shots. Last year, they were all thinking NBA minus H-brough. The d-asses finally bumped couple gray cells and discovered that if they continued to play without focus and without developed skills at collegiate level, the NBA was moot point. Carolina’s play now is at the height of a team effort. Their defense, in particular, and perimeter defense has improved IMMENSELY. Also, they weathered storms that have tested their emotional maturity. Ginyard NOT coming back could have thrown them for a fruit loop but it seems like this team has the idea that if one door closes, open a window. Zeller did come back from a broken wrist. Ed Davis “elevated” his game to being able to hit free-throws, both freshmen. Larry Drew caught Hades for not being able to guard his lunch and for turning the ball over. Again, Heels have a testy fan-base. At one point this year that “base” was all over Lawson. Upshot: Lawson got better. It beat having barbs slung at him via commentary posted in RALEIGH NEWS AND OBSERVER. Steinbeck writes that the less one has, the more one is likely to boast of it. NC has an outsourced economy that makes Detroit look like Rome at its empire pinnacle. Also, UNC-CH is a big school and lots of North Carolinians WENT to Carolina. In short, NC don’t got much, but we got college basketball. The media can Motor City away, bail-outs, commanders-in-cars, but NC is a VERY poor state, economically speaking. It all “plays.” Also, UNC does pretty well against private schools, as the first chartered public university in the country. “The University of the People.” Is that a crock? Eh, dunno. Williams is willing to take a cut in salary because of the economy. It all plays into “the drama” of media but to the deception that is the essence of this sport. Heels could fake win and move to defeat. I think it’s unlikely but again, ANYTHING can happen on a given night in college basketball. The team that is toughest EMOTIONALLY wins this game and national title.

I don’t see why “Nova over Pitt” is valued much more than “Carolina over Oklahoma”. Through the first three round it looked like Pitt was point-shaving. Pitt peaked a month ago and never seemed to be on track in the NCAAA’s.

The thrashings of Duke and Gonzaga are at the very least equal. Gonzaga needed a buzzer beater to avoid OT and advance while Duke barely squeaked past Texas.

And if we want to talk about the first weekend let’s at least bring up the near bracket-busting performance against American two days before they walked all over a weak UCLA team.

All that said I personally don’t buy that there is any transitive relation in college basketball. It’s all about matchups. Carolina seems to have the edge in nearly all the player matchups as well as a huge experience advantage.

Tough to rebound on swishes….get real – the weight room? UNC pulls future NBAers off the bench.
Go Heels GO!

No player in college basketball can run with Lawson NOW. Hansbrough will school Cunningham. Heels are playing immense perimeter D. Nova is streaky offensively. Lawson penetrates. Nobody HAS stopped that. When he does, he shoots, makes outrageously acrobatic shots, is fouled, count the ole fashioned 3. Or he dishes (and count that basket for Hansbrough)as Law’s assist-t-over is like 10-1? Hmm. Ellington is hitting the 3, Green is a monster, Hansbrough will come out of this game with 20+ points easily, as will Lawson, and again the rebounding edge is going to Heels. Heels are in weight room with some height. Out-MUSCLE? Wow.

Heels will not be distracted relative to Monday night. You can talk 1985, 2005, but in more recent memory, a GREAT ball tradition can just suck tea kettles in ONE Final Four consecutive years. Maybe this analysis toward Pennsylvania should read, “Toto, I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore.”

One factor for Villanova that emerged in the Duke game was the defensive shut down by Reggie Redding (and others) on one time Episcopal Academy star and Villanova recruit Gerald Henderson who had been on a tear in the tournament up to the Villanova game.

If Reggie Redding (and others) are able to shut down one time Episcopal Academy star and Villanova recruit Wayne Ellington who has been on a tear in the tournament, it will give Villanova a defensive edge.

Shane Clark, who has demonstrated “soft” hands in the past has got to hold on to the ball in the low post and has to hold on to sudden interior passes from Villanova’s quick guards.

Reggie Redding, who has handled the ball well recently in the back court, is turn over prone. He will have to take better care of the ball against North Carolina.

Bob S
rschu@cny.org

Strategically, North Carolina has to be distracted by the likelihood they will be in the finals, and concern about how they will perform against Connecticut or Michigan State. For Villanova, beating North Carolina is the only thing to be concerned about. Beat North Carolina and they likely win the whole tournament.

Tactically, it appears nobody is better than Villanova seizing every defensive and offensive opportunity. North Carolina has to know this and be preparing to deal with it. If Villanova still manages to succeed in this area, it could easily demoralize North Carolina in the same manner UCLA and Duke appeared to be demoralized.