Sweet 16: Memphis-Missouri Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Memphis-Missouri game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

If John Calipari were to have read MSF over the past couple of weeks, he would know that I was not among those who thought Memphis should have received a #1 seed and that I picked the Tigers to lose in the second round. (And I predicted that loss to come against Cal, who lost in the first round to Maryland. Shows you how much I know.)

Of course, John Calipari has plenty of more important things to do than read our little blog here. On the off chance he did, he would probably just chalk our site up as another one of the haters and naysayers and not give it a second thought. Calipari is a pretty cool customer who does not seem to get rattled or frustrated in the face of people constantly doubting his team, or disparaging its conference and schedule.

Now, if John Chaney read MSF and I had been down on Temple, he might not be such a cool customer…

Video: John Chaney v John Calipari

Forgive me, I had to get that in there. It’s been years since I’ve seen that video, but it never gets old. If only we could have seen how the fight ended up…

But I digress.

Mike Anderson, the coach of Missouri, would probably not think much of this site either. I picked the Tigers to lose in the Big 12 tournament and I predicted a second round loss for them against Marquette. Obviously, neither happened.

So it is with great shame, humility, and surprise that I type this Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 preview. I did not expect either team to make it this far, yet here they are: my own personal bracket busters duking it out to ensure that I cannot have a perfect Elite 8 this year.

But you know what? I can’t wait for this game. These two teams play an entertaining style of basketball that should make this one of the more exciting Sweet 16 games this year. Here are the particulars for the Mizzou-Memphis matchup later this week:

Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: West Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• West Regional Breakdown
• Date: Thursday, March 26
• TV Time: 9:37 PM on CBS
• Site: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
• Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• Point Spread: Memphis -4 1/2
• Over-Under: 140
• My prediction (done before looking at the Bracket Predictor): Missouri

Let’s see how the Bracket Predictor sees this game going, based on the five statistical categories I submitted to the prediction engine:

• Offensive Efficiency: Memphis – 1.071 | Missouri – 1.097
• Defensive Efficiency: Memphis – 0.826 | Missouri – 0.913
• Assist/TO Ratio: Memphis – 1.149 | Missouri – 1.541
• Free Throw %: Memphis – 0.695 | Missouri – 0.668
• Defensive Field Goal %: Memphis – 0.366 | Missouri – 0.415

And based on these numbers, plus the strength of schedule factor that is automatically used to calculate the results, the Game Predictor sees the outcome as follows:

• Odds to Win Game: Memphis – 60.7% | Missouri – 39.3%
• Most Likely Final Score: Memphis – 70.6 | Missouri – 67.5
• Odds to Cover Spread (MIZZOU +4.5): Memphis – 42.8% | Missouri – 57.2%
• Confidence Level: 3 Stars

So, the Game Predictor sees this as being a closer matchup than UConn-Purdue and Pitt-Xavier, which one would expect. I am still a little bit surprised that Memphis’ odds are above 60%, and I completely agree that Missouri has a great chance to beat the spread in this one — if not win it outright.

Here is what I did not like about the Game Predictor analysis of this one: the historical comparisons (not shown in the images above). The majority of the teams Missouri was compared to were double-digit seeds. I don’t know exactly how these historical comparisons are generated, but the typical seed differentials of the ten comparisons provided was 6 or 7 seed slots. This game is a #2 seed versus a #3 seed, and two teams that I think are very, very comparable. Luckily, the final projection anticipates a close game that I project to be even closer.

Missouri plays a fast style of basketball, attacking on both ends of the court. I was shocked to see that their Assist/TO ratio is as good as it is. Obviously that number is driven by their great ability to pressure teams into turnovers; but it shows a strong ability on their part to protect the ball as well. Their high offensive rating shows that they are able to turn the majority of those turnovers into points.

Memphis, on the other hand, is not quite as strong in either category but still in the top 15% or so in the nation in both. And their defensive numbers are outstanding, with the best defensive efficiency and defensive field goal % ratings in the nation. My apologies to Coach Cal and the Memphis Tigers: I underestimated your ability on defense, otherwise I just might have had you advancing this far, if not further.

At the end of the day, I look at this game as a toss-up. Tyreke Evans has really improved Memphis as he has become more comfortable controlling the basketball as the season has gone on. He leads the team in points at 16.6 per game and also grabs 5.4 rebounds per. However, he also turns it over 3.6 times per game, only generating an Assist/TO ratio of 1.1/1. Antonio Anderson has been much more steady, with an Assist/TO of 2/1. Against the Missouri press, Evans will have to take better care of the basketball.

For Missouri, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons must continue to lead with excellent all-around play from the forward slots. If the Tigers can get a performance out of Matt Lawrence like they got against Marquette (16 points) it will make them that much more difficult to overcome.

My gut is still telling me that Missouri is going to win, but obviously the Game Predictor, using the stats I fed it, has a 3 Star confidence level on Memphis. Either way, one of these teams is going to surprise me by making it to the Elite 8, only to have me (most likely) pick against them on Saturday. Luckily for Memphis and Missouri, the opinions of some idiot blogger mean nothing and they have been able to prove their worth on the court.

When these two skilled, athletic, well-coached teams meet up on Thursday, it could very well provide the most exciting game of the weekend.

Unless you picked neither to be here and your bracket is toast.

Then it’s just depressing.

Who do you predict will win the Sweet 16 game between Memphis and Missouri?

• Memphis
• Missouri

View Results

 Loading ...

Tyreke Evans photo credit: AP Photo/Nick Wass

Demarre Carroll photo credit: Jon Goering/KANSAN

Tags: 2009 NCAA Tournament, College Basketball, John Calipari, march madness, Memphis Tigers, missouri tigers, sweet 16

---------------

If you enjoyed this post, please consider sharing with your friends: