Elite 8: Louisville-Michigan State Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Louisville-Michigan State Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Fans in Indianapolis were treated to one outstanding game yesterday and one complete massacre. The victors of those two games, Louisville and Michigan State, will take the court Sunday afternoon for the right to advance to the Final Four as the Midwest Regional Champion.

A quick look back before we look forward to the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday:

Michigan State and Kansas duked it out until the final seconds Friday night before the Spartans emerged victorious. Sherron Collins was fantastic, as expected, but Goran Suton saved one of the best games of his career for a time when Michigan State really needed it. Suton scored 20 points and grabbed 9 rebounds in a tremendously clutch performance. I was right in my prediction that Michigan State would win, but wrong that they needed Raymar Morgan to have a big game. What they needed was someone to cancel out Cole Aldrich and Suton completed the task. You knew Kalin Lucas could battle Sherron Collins to a draw, which he did, and Michigan State has more experience throughout the balance of their roster than KU. In the end, that’s why they won.

And there isn’t really much to say about Louisville’s 103-64 win over Arizona. I predicted a Louisville win and cover, but I did not expect this complete a dismantling of the Wildcats. The Cardinals owned the game from the tip and never relinquished control. Five players scored in double figures, paced by Earl Clark’s 19 points to go along with 9 rebounds. The Cardinals shot 57.6% from the field, 48.3% from downtown (14-29), and 92.9% from the line. It was an incredibly dominating performance by a team that really seems to have hit their stride over the last month or so.

So what will happen on Sunday afternoon when Louisville and Michigan State take the floor at Lucas Oil Stadium? That’s exactly what we’re here to analyze. Here are the particulars:

Louisville-Michigan State Midwest Regional Final – Elite 8 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Regional Final – Elite 8 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Sunday, March 29
• TV Time: 2:20 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Louisville -7
• Over-Under: 138

In my original 2009 bracket, I had this as the Elite 8 contest out of the Midwest Region, with Michigan State as the choice to make the Final Four. Here is what I said about the Spartans then:

Honestly, this surprised me a little bit. When I first sat down to look at the brackets, the Spartans were a team I looked at as potentially being ripe for an early upset. But looking deeper, many of their metrics, at least with respect to my personal basketball biases, make them a tournament-ready team. Add in the extra motivation of the Final Four being in Detroit, and I can see this happening.

In the two weeks that have passed since I posted my predictions, the Spartans have beaten Robert Morris, and won close, hard-fought games against USC and Kansas. Louisville, by contrast, has been much more dominating against a less impressive slate of tournament opponents, beating Morehead State, Siena, and Arizona by an average of 22 points a game.

I can see why the line on this game is Louisville -7. The Cardinals are the #1 seed, they hail from the Big East and won both the regular season and conference title, and they have rolled through their three tournament opponents (although Siena put up a bit of a second half fight). Michigan State is the #2 seed, played in a conference that I still think gets less love than it should, and have won without being dominating.

If I was setting a betting line, I would favor Louisville too. I just don’t know that I am going to pick them.

But before I get to my prediction, let’s head over to the Game Predictor to see how it sees this game, based on the same statistical categories we used for all of the Sweet 16 games:

• Offensive Efficiency: Louisville – 1.065 | Michigan State – 1.056
• Defensive Efficiency: Louisville – 0.879 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: Louisville – 1.281 | Michigan State – 1.171
• Free Throw %: Louisville – 0.645 | Michigan State – 0.697
• Defensive Field Goal %: Louisville – 0.394 | Michigan State – 0.415

So, Louisville wins four out of the five categories, is the higher seed, had a tougher strength of schedule (I assume, though probably not by much), and is favored. It all adds up to the Cardinals probably being an overwhelming favorite in the eyes of Game Predictor.

And that is exactly how it came out:

• Odds to Win Game: Louisville – 83.1% | Michigan State – 16.9%
• Most Likely Final Score: Louisville – 74.3 | Michigan State – 65.1
• Odds to Cover Spread (MSU +7): Louisville – 60.1% | Michigan State – 39.9%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

I have run every Sweet 16 game and every Elite 8 game but one (UNC-Oklahoma, to come later) through the Game Predictor. This is one of the most overwhelmingly lopsided predictions that has been returned.

And here is the frustrating part for me as I type this: rationally, I agree with the prediction.

Louisville’s metrics are better, they are more talented from top to bottom on their roster, they have a great coach who is certainly Tom Izzo’s peer, and they have passed the “eye test” during the tournament more impressively than Michigan State. So I completely understand why Game Predictor, and many others, think Louisville wins this game by a touchdown or more.

But I really, really, really want to disagree.

I like Tom Izzo and I’m a big fan of the Spartans’ backcourt of Kalin Lucas and Travis Walton. Plus, I am a Big Ten supporter through and through and would love to see Michigan State return some prestige to our recently struggling (but still underrated!) conference. Mix in the whole Rick Pitino-Kentucky connection, and I will without question be a huge Spartans fan on Sunday night.

However, I am trying to be as objective as possible in making these predictions. The Game Predictor has been a very powerful tool in doing so, and it is hard to ignore the overwhelming numbers above. I did go against Game Predictor during the Sweet 16, with some success (picking Villanova over Duke) and some failure (picking Syracuse over Oklahoma). I am trying to find something, anything to give me a shred of confidence to ignore game predictor here.

Louisville has only lost two games since the calendar turned to February, and has won 13 in a row. During that streak, only 4 of their games were decided by single digits. However, from February 2 through February 12, the Cardinals lost twice, at home to UConn and on the road against Notre Dame. Perhaps these two games offer a clue for what Michigan State can do to slow down this Louisville juggernaut (which I, admittedly, underestimated coming into the tournament.)

UConn dominated Louisville defensively, winning 68-51. Terrence Williams scored 26 for Louisville, but only five other players scored and the rest of the starters contributed only 10 points. Earl Clark was held to 2-16 shooting while Edgar Sosa and Jerry Smith shot a combined 2-9. As a team, the Cardinals had an Assist/TO ratio of 9/17. Amazingly, UConn went 0-8 from downtown and had a porous 12/16 Assist/TO ratio themselves. But Hasheem Thabeet grabbed 11 boards, blocked 4 shots, and scored 14 points to control the paint.

The Notre Dame-Louisville game was a complete massacre in favor of the Irish. Slumping heading into the game, Notre Dame got 10-16 shooting from downtown by Kyle McAlarney and Ryan Ayers, plus 32 points and 17 rebounds from Luke Harangody. The Irish won 90-57. Louisville shot 39% from the field for the game, and was outrebounded 46-25. It was a thoroughly dominating performance by the Irish that led Rick Pitino to say the following:

“This victory, while humiliating to us, can propel them into something good,” Pitino said. “I’m happy for them. I’m really upset at our players. The way we practiced going into this game and the way we played tonight, our five men were just totally dominated.”

Of course, from that point on, the Louisville Rickpitinowhitesuits have not lost again.

So what can Michigan State take away from these two losses as they try to prepare a blueprint for beating Louisville? First, hope that Louisville comes out completely unprepared to play, like they did against Notre Dame. Assuming that won’t happen, considering a spot in the Final Four is on the line and all, here are some keys for Michigan State:

1 — Own the glass

In these two losses by Louisville, they were outrebounded 82-55. Michigan State has always been a very good rebounding team, but this year’s squad is not one of their best teams on the glass in recent memory. Goran Suton averages 8.0 rebounds a game, with no one else grabbing more than Raymar Morgan’s 5.4. And Morgan only had 1 rebound in 13 minutes of action last night against Kansas, when the Spartans won despite being outrebounded 31-27. UConn and Notre Dame dominated on the boards and won. Michigan State cannot give the Cardinals second chances and they must get a few offensive rebounds of their own.

2 — Make 3s and guard the 3

UConn did not need threes to beat Louisville, but they have Hasheem Thabeet down low and more scoring options than the Spartans have. Plus, Louisville had an off night themselves from downtown in that game. But we know that Louisville will shoot and make their fair share of threes, as they knocked down 299 on the season, with six players making 29 or more. At a minimum, Michigan State needs to battle Louisville to close to a draw from downtown, which means that Chris Allen, Kalin Lucas, and Durrell Summers (and even Suton) need to be shooting well. Last night, Louisville made 14 3s en route to dominating Arizona. If Michigan State can’t force Louisville to be around 25-30% from long range, and make some of their own, it could be a long night.

3 — Take away Terrence Williams or Earl Clark, if not both

It is probably pie in the sky thinking that Michigan State can shut down both Terrence Williams and Earl Clark, especially considering how well both have played recently. But in Louisville’s losses, these two guys typically struggle. Williams had 9 points in a loss to UNLV and just 5 in the Notre Dame loss. Clark had 5 and 11 in the UConn and Notre Dame losses, respectively. If Michigan State can harass Williams and Clark to force them into low percentage shots, Louisville’s explosiveness will be compromised. At the very least, the Spartans need to ensure that one of these guys struggles.

4 — Get to the line and make free throws

Want to know what the “hidden” difference was in the MSU-Kansas game? The Spartans went 16-17 from the line, while Kansas went 11-13. Michigan State has a decided advantage over Louisville in free throw shooting percentage on the season, and they must exploit this. Kalin Lucas needs to get into the lane and draw fouls, and the other Spartans must be strong down low, take contact, and then make their freebies. If Michigan State can steal 5-6 points from the line against Louisville, as they did against Kansas, it will got a long way towards keeping them in the game.

Now, obviously, doing all four of these things is far easier said than done. There are plenty of solid reasons why Louisville was the #1 overall seed in the tournament, and they have proven the committee right thus far in the tournament.

Here are two advantages that I think Michigan State has going into the game:

1. They are more battle-tested in close games against good teams thus far in the tournament, having pulled out tough Ws over USC and Kansas. Louisville has not faced a team as good as either so far. (Of course, they did win the Big East tournament right before the NCAA Tournament started…)
2. The carrot at the end of the stick for Michigan State is playing in the Final Four in their own backyard. I don’t really know how much of an advantage this is, as you have to think that Louisville is just as motivated to make the Final Four regardless of where it is being played. But sometimes upsets happen because a team comes together to play for a higher purpose. Detroit is a struggling city, both in terms of economics and the performance of their sports teams, and I am sure that a Spartan trip to the Final Four at Ford Field would be exciting and uplifting for everyone. If Tom Izzo can somehow use this effectively as an extra little nugget of motivation, it could help. How much? Probably not a lot. But if this is a close game, every little advantage will be meaningful.

Michigan State was my original Final Four pick, but I have felt less and less confident in that choice each time I have seen Louisville play in the tournament. And while this is a very solid Michigan State team, I do not view these Spartans as being in the upper echelon of Tom Izzo’s teams in East Lansing. They just seem to one be one player away for being truly elite. Unfortunately, in terms of talent and expectations, that player is on their roster in Raymar Morgan, but it is hard to count on him for any type of game-to-game consistency.

Update: Just caught on SI.com that Raymar Morgan is expected to play tomorrow despite the broken nose he suffered against Kansas. According to Tom Izzo, Morgan “did not play well before the injury and was even less productive after it.”

Everything, in my mind, points to a Louisville victory on Sunday. When you stack up all of the metrics, I think it would take a flight of irrationality and wishful thinking to predict a Spartan victory. So that is why I will suggest that if you are actually thinking of placing money on this game, you should just stop reading right here.

Because I’m sticking with my pick of Michigan State.

Call it an irrational man-crush on Tom Izzo, stubborn Big Ten support, or just an unexplainable gut feeling; but I think Michigan State finds a way to get it done (and obviously covers the spread). The Spartans reaching the Final Four in their own backyard just seems like one of those NCAA Tournament stories that is too compelling not to happen; and while Louisville appears to have most of the advantages heading in, Michigan State is absolutely still good enough to win.

Call me crazy, but I think they will.

Who do you think will win the Midwest Regional Final between Louisville and Michigan State?

• Michigan State
• Louisville

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Earl Clark, Terrence Williams photo credit: Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images North America

Tags: 2009 Elite 8, 2009 NCAA Tournament, Kalin Lucas, Louisville Cardinals, march madness, Michigan State Spartans, Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo

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