Sweet 16: Duke-Villanova Preview, Prediction, and Analysis

This post will analyze the Villanova-Duke game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

I realize that I am beginning to sound like a broken record, but I can’t wait for this game. When the brackets first came out, a potential Villanova-Duke Sweet 16 matchup was one of the games I circled and that made me pause at length before figuring out who I thought would win.

Now it’s here, and I think it has a chance to be one of the best games of the weekend, Elite 8 included. Here is the quick breakdown of the Villanova-Duke Sweet 16 game:

Villanova-Duke Sweet 16 Quick Preview

• StubHub: East Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• East Regional Breakdown
• Date: Thursday, March 26
• TV Time: 9:57 PM on CBS
• Site: TD Banknorth Garden in Boston, MA
• Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Point Spread: Duke -2 1/2
• Over-Under: 148
• My prediction: Villanova

Before we jump into what Game Predictor foretells for this matchup, let me just say that I have become a big fan of Villanova as this season has worn on. I place a high value on guard play and Villanova has one of the best backcourts in America. Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Corey Stokes combine for over 35 points a game as part of one of the most balanced attacks in America. They are then complemented by Dante Cunningham, one of the best senior frontcourt players in America. The Wildcats Achilles’ heel is that they do not have great size, but that certainly should not hurt them against Duke.

I am also a big fan of Villanova coach Jay Wright. He has been a Division 1 head coach since 1994 when he started at Hofstra and took them to two straight NCAA Tournaments in 2000 and 2001. In his first three seasons at Villanova, the program was rebuilding and was nothing more than an NIT team. Since 2005, however, Villanova has reasserted itself as one of the top 20 programs in America under Wright. Over the last 5 seasons (including this one), Villanova has made three Sweet 16s and one Elite 8, and Wright has not won less than 22 games in a season while playing in the increasingly competitive Big East.

Oh, and for the record, I really don’t like Duke. It’s nothing personal really (okay, yes it is); and in fact, my affinity for Bob Knight obviously makes me respect Coach K a great deal. But ever since the 1992 Final Four, when I legitimately think that Ted Valentine took the game out of IU’s hands (remember how many key guys fouled out late?) I have focused the resulting vitriol on the damn Dookies, who dominated that era of college basketball. The residue lingers…

So, with all that being said, let’s see how Game Predictor views this game, using the established set of statistical criteria we have been using for each Sweet 16 game:

• Offensive Efficiency: Villanova – 1.076 | Duke – 1.103
• Defensive Efficiency: Villanova – 0.937 | Duke – 0.926
• Assist/TO Ratio: Villanova – 1.141 | Duke – 1.110
• Free Throw %: Villanova – 0.746 | Duke – 0.728
• Defensive Field Goal %: Villanova – 0.406 | Duke – 0.434

Looks pretty close right? Well once again, the seed bias that is becoming obvious in these Game Predictor analyses shows through. There is an automatic strength of schedule analysis factored in, which would obviously be in Villanova’s favor. Considering that, plus the fact that they own 3 out of the 5 categories, I would think the Wildcats would be the pick. Not so much.

• Odds to Win Game: Villanova – 38.4% | Duke – 61.6%
• Most Likely Final Score: Villanova – 66.9 | Duke – 69.4
• Odds to Cover Spread (Nova +2.5): Villanova – 47.3% | Duke – 52.7%
• Confidence Level: 3 Stars

Duke had to go to the final seconds to beat Texas and Game Predictor thinks Duke has a better chance of covering a 2.5 point spread over Villanova? (Of course, Villanova lost to Texas early in the season, so that may not be the best argument for me to use here.)

I wholeheartedly disagree with the Game Predictor on this one.

One very important factor in this game that is not explicitly taken into account in the above analysis is 3-point shooting. Both of these teams are undersized and rely on the 3 as a major part of their offense. For the season, Duke make 262 3-pointers and shot 35.5% from downtown. Villanova made 232 3-pointers and shot 36.5 from downtown.

To analyze, I changed up the stats in Game Predictor and added 3 Point % and defensive 3 Point % instead of Free Throw % and Defensive Field Goal % to see how it might alter the prediction:

I would much rather have added these two stats instead of substituting, but Game Predictor only allows for five stats. Villanova has an advantage in defensive 3 Point % (0.339 to 0.342), in addition to their shooting advantage, but their advantages over Duke in these stats are less than their advantages in Free Throw % and overall defensive field goal %. Hence, the updated analysis (not pictured) has Duke winning by more. With these stats added to the original analysis, there is no doubt Villanova would have inched closer.

So while I like Game Predictor, I oppose their pick on this one.

By no means do I think this game is a slam dunk for Villanova. Duke is a very good team with a tremendous trio of players in Gerald Henderson, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler that is as solid as any trio in the country. And if the Blue Devils are making 3s they will be extremely tough to beat. But like Villanova, Duke is not a team that is going to win games down low. Even Singler, despite his height, seems more comfortable out on the wing.

What will make this game fun is the similarity between the two teams. This game should have absolutely been a pick ‘em game. I don’t know how you favor Duke over Villanova by 2.5 when the teams are so evenly matched. I would take Villanova and the points in a heartbeat, and I expect Villanova to win the game outright.

Who do you predict will win the Sweet 16 game between Duke and Villanova?

• Villanova
• Duke

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Tags: 2009 NCAA Tournament, College Basketball, Duke Blue Devils, Jay Wright, march madness, sweet 16, Villanova Wildcats

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