Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:
- 2010 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket Breakdown
- March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
- MSF Bracket Challenge
- Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
- Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- History of Final Four in Indianapolis
- Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets
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In yesterday’s March Madness odds chatter, we covered the terrifying phenomena known as 5-12 seed matchups. As scary as those NCAA basketball lines can be, there are few choices tougher than the 8 vs 9 games. How tight are they? Since the inception of the Tournament, the No. 8 seed has won 46 percent of the time while the No 9 has won 54 percent of the games. These are borderline coin flips among the first-round March Madness odds.
Let’s try and sort through the 8-9 seed battles and find some “safe†picks for sportsbook players and bracket nuts alike.
No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes vs No. 9 Siena Saints
Raise your hand if you expected to see Ohio State back in the Tournament this soon. We all know the Buckeyes have a solid program, having reached the National Championship game just two years ago. But that was then, in the days of man-child extraordinaire Greg Oden. Last year, Ohio State found itself in the NIT tournament, so returning to the March Madness odds this soon with a young, small team is an accomplishment.
That also means, however, that Ohio State’s season is already a success. The Buckeyes have made progress but remain an inexperienced team that can drain bombs from the perimeter but gets pushed around and outrebounded night in and night out. Siena is no slouch as a No. 9 seed; the Saints proved themselves last year but thumping No. 3 Vanderbilt as No. 14 seeds and they’re just that much more experienced now. Kenny Hasbrouck leads a deep group of scorers that boasts four guys averaging 10 or more points a game and Siena doesn’t turn over the ball much, so it looks like a rock-solid sportsbook pick among the No. 9 seeds.
Online betting pick: Siena
No. 8 LSU Tigers vs No. 9 Butler Bulldogs
Dust off your “pretender†list, online betting fans, and pencil in the LSU Tigers. They were impressive on paper this year, going 26-7, but the fact of the matter is that their conference, the SEC, was weak this season. Momentum is paramount entering the March madness odds and losses to non-tournament-participants Vanderbilt, Auburn and Mississippi in their last four games hardly instill confidence in anyone who considered picking LSU.
If the Tigers are overrated, the Butler Bulldogs may be underrated. Yes, they’re young, but they show signs of being mature beyond their years. The Matt Howard/Gordon Hayward tandem gives them great offensive versatility and the Bulldogs also rarely turnover the basketball. Their 19-1 record when leading at halftime this season also suggests they handle pressure well, so Butler should take down LSU.
Online betting pick: Butler
2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets
No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers
While it may be tough to pick a winner in this March Madness betting matchup, betting the “over†on total points is a pretty safe choice given that neither Oklahoma State nor Tennessee is too interested in that whole “defense†thing.
There’s no denying Oklahoma State can put points on the board – the Cowboys rank sixth in the nation in that respect – but their game has more holes than Swiss cheese. Their ugly defense traces back to their lack of size, which causes them to lose the battle of the boards consistently; they rank 229th in the country in rebounding margin. That puts way too much pressure on their outside shooting game.
Tennessee isn’t much different from Oklahoma State, also ranking among the nation’s best offensive and worst defensive teams. However, it moves the ball better and turns it over less. The Volunteers also boast two clutch performers in Wayne Chism and Tyler Smith plus a far more experienced coach in Bruce Pearl. Those intangibles will be enough to propel them past Oklahoma State.
Online betting pick: Tennessee
No. 8 BYU Cougars vs No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies
Even though these two teams combined for a 48-16 record this year, I can’t help but feel like they’re seeded a bit high. BYU’s game is a bit one-dimensional – pretty much all their starters can shoot and they outrebound opponents through their physicality – but it’s effective. The Cougars lack size and depth and will likely ride their starters into the ground, meaning they could tire should they advance past the first weekend.
Texas A&M rebounded after an ugly start in conference play and the Aggies should be proud of themselves for making the tournament. For them to survive BYU’s onslaught, defensive standouts Chinemelu Elonu and Bryan Davis have to stand tall and block shots. Someone is bound to get hot for the Cougars, so I’m thinking they’ll drain enough treys to edge the Aggies in this one.
Online betting pick: BYU
