March Madness Upset Picks: Sorting out the Dreaded 5 – 12 Matchups

Note: This post is from 2009. Follow the link to view our 2010 March Madness upset analysis, including 5-12 seed predictions.

To view our other 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

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NCAA Tournament Tickets - 8-9 Seed Picks
You’re set to make your March Madness betting picks, but your hands start to tremble. You know it’s coming. Coming for you. Coming to break your heart. Yes – that evil 12 seed gets you every year.

Think the 12-seed upset theory is just a March Madness betting myth? Think again. No. 12s beat No. 5s 33% of the time – that’s one in three matchups, meaning online betting fans should expect at least one first-round upset every season.

Which 12 seed – or seeds – will pull it off this year? Let’s break down the four 5-12 March Madness lines.

No. 5 Florida State Seminoles vs No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers PickNCAA Tournament 5-12 Seed Picks, Predictions

The Seminoles, who pulled off a big upset over North Carolina in the ACC tournament, face Wisconsin in what should be a war between two defensive-minded teams. Can online betting fans trust the Seminoles? Aside from their win over the Tar Heels, they lost to Pittsburgh, Duke (twice), Wake Forest and even North Carolina in their first meeting. Does that mean Florida State is a pretender?

Not necessarily. Guard Toney Douglas can be magic for Florida State on both sides of the court, as he puts up big points but also plays great defense and forces turnovers. Wisconsin is just as good defensively, but it can’t match Florida State’s offense. The Badgers’ leading scorer, Marcus Landry, averages only 12.6 points per game. Look for FSU’s slight offensive advantage to be the difference maker here.

Online betting pick: Florida State

No. 5 Utah Utes vs. No. 12 Arizona Wildcats Pick

In the top-heavy Midwest Regional, which features major contenders Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas and Wake Forest, Utah’s best-case scenario was the fifth seed. The Utes draw Arizona, who many online betting followers felt shouldn’t have made the tournament. Regardless, the Wildcats may be the scariest 12 seed in March Madness betting the season. Not only did they beat UCLA and Gonzaga, they boast a true game-changer in center Jordan Hill, who looks like a surefire NBA first-rounder.

Utah won the Mountain West was but wasn’t tested like other No. 5 seeds were; it also relies too heavily on its outside shooting. Arizona looks like the hottest 12-seed upset pick in March Madness betting this year.

Online betting pick: Arizona

StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

No. 5 Illinois Fighting Illini vs No. 12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick

Can you say upset alert again? Anyone who likes to bet on basketball at the sportsbook should remember Western Kentucky from last year, when it reached the Sweet 16 as – you guessed it – a 12 seed. The Hilltoppers won the Sun Belt tournament, led by junior guard A.J. Slaughter and his hot shooting. Western Kentucky also beat No. 1 overall March Madness betting seed Louisville this season, so it must be taken seriously.

Illinois is outstanding defensively and doesn’t turn over the ball but has serious trouble scoring. Since Western Kentucky is no slouch defensively, Slaughter could push them over the top as four-point underdogs.

Online betting pick: Western Kentucky

No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers vs No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers Pick5-12 Seed Upset Picks, Predictions

This could be the safest of the five-versus-12 March Madness lines. Eight of Purdue’s regular season opponents were nationally ranked on the game day, whereas Northern Iowa faced just one ranked team in that time span. While online betting fans can’t exaggerate the value of facing ranked teams, there’s no denying that Purdue is the more proven squad here.

While the Boilermakers are viewed by many as a bust this season, lacking size and depth, they play solid defense. Guard Lewis Jackson, though he doesn’t score much, is an all-around, X-factor type player. Bet on Purdue to survive the first round.

Online betting pick: Purdue



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