2009 March | Midwest Sports Fans

John Calipari Accepts Kentucky Head Coaching Gig

March 31, 2009 By Jerod Morris 2 Comments

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The initial rumors about Billy Donovan going to Kentucky proved terribly wrong, but the rumors about John Calipari did not. After taking a night to sleep on Kentucky’s gargantuan offer, Coach Cal has accepted the head coaching position at Kentucky.

From ESPN.com:

The coach sent a text message to ESPN.com’s Andy Katz on Tuesday evening saying, “I am accepting the UK job! Go Big Blue, coach Cal.”

A source told Katz that Calipari will receive an eight-year, $35 million deal. He gets a $2.5 million signing bonus and $3 million per year for the first four years. In years five, six, seven and eight, Calipari will get an additional $1.5 million per year, so for the last four years of the contract his salary would be $4.5 million. Incentives push the deal up a few more million to get to the $35 million mark.

The contract is the richest in college basketball.

As I’ve said, I think this is a great move for Kentucky all things considered. And now that he has accepted the job and obviously is looking forward to the challenge, it is a great move for John Calipari.

Don’t have a lot of time right now, but here are some relevant links, including my thoughts on this issue over the past week:

Filed Under: CBB Tagged With: CBB, John Calipari, kentucky wildcats

Spartan Love: Homecourt Advantage Will Lead to Final Four Betting Upset

March 31, 2009 By BetOnline Leave a Comment

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Itâ€™s time to go over your Final Four odds for Saturdayâ€™s games as the field of 64 has been whittled down to four. Michigan State pulled out an unlikely victory against the top overall seed in the Tournament, and itâ€™ll get the reward of a â€œhome-courtâ€ advantage when it takes on Connecticut as a sportsbook underdog.

Michigan State vs Connecticut odds â€“ Saturday, April 4, 6:07 PM ET

The No.2 Spartans took the Midwest region with a 12-point victory over top-seeded Louisville, and they did it with offensive efficiency (46.2 per cent from the floor), while holding the Cardinals to 38.3 per cent. Goran Suton may be playing the best ball of his four-year career, as he went for 19 points and 10 boards against Louisville and having a productive big man is the best thing for Michigan Stateâ€™s style of play. The Spartans arenâ€™t a flashy team, but they get the job done with toughness and just enough discipline to be capable of a Final Four betting upset.

The Huskies emerged from the West region as a top-seeded winner, as they overcame an uncharacteristic 17 turnovers in a seven-point win over Missouri. For the second straight game, an unlikely source stepped up for the Huskies, and this time it was freshman Kemba Walker, who led the way with 23 points. The Huskies also rank in the top five nationally in rebounding, and this advantage was prominent against the smaller Tigers as UConn outrebounded Mizzou 45-26.

The Huskies are a four-point favorite according to Final Four odds, and these two programs are used to the pressure of the Tournament: since 1999, Michigan State and UConn have combined for three national championships and eight Final Four appearances. The Spartans lead the nation in rebounding, so UConn wonâ€™t dominate the boards like they have throughout the Tournament. Michigan State is 75 miles away from Ford Field, so it will definitely have the feel of a home-court advantage and locking down the talented Cardinals gave them plenty of confidence.

In a close and physical game, look for the crowd to be the difference as Michigan State heads to the national-title game with a Final Four betting upset.

Follow the link to see JRod’s detailed preview and prediction of the Michigan State-Connecticut Final Four game on Saturday.

Filed Under: CBB, Sports Betting Tagged With: 2009 Final Four, 2009 NCAA Tournament, March Madness, Michigan State Spartans

Cleveland Indians 2009 Preview and Outlook

March 31, 2009 By AJ Kaufman 7 Comments

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With 61 of the 65 college basketball teams now seeing their seasons end, and despite not quite spring-like weather here in Central Indiana, baseball season has come to the forefront of my sports mind. Since we don’t have a major league squad in Indianapolis, my interest goes east to Ohio’s two teams.

Unfortunately, the media has already predicted major attendance drops for the national pastime, but with attendance records actually broken the past few seasons, the jury is still out on that capricious assessment.

I will preview the two teams I’ll follow this season, beginning with Cleveland today. (Cincinnati will follow later this week)

The Indians have an even-odd year thing going in terms of success the past half-decade, so 2009 looks promising if that holds. They won the division in 2007 and exceeded all expectations in 2005, while ’04, ’06 and last season were grave disappointments.

But it could be tough for the Tribe, as they face their first full season without C.C. Sabathia; an injury that will keep number three starter Jake Westbrook out another few months; Fausto Carmona and Travis Hafner trying to regain prior form; and Cliff Lee needing to prove his 2008 Cy Young season was no fluke. For Lee, if spring is an indication, his disastrous 2007 that landed him in Buffalo seems more akin to his success level. “Fans of the Feathered” surely hope not.

Last year’s surprisingly effective fifth starter, Aaron Laffey, will start the season in Columbus (that’s the new Cleveland Triple A team, as they now “control” eastern Ohio baseball from Lake County to the Mahoning Valley and west to Akron and Ohio’s capital city) due to the emergence of Scott Lewis and Saint Louis’s 2006 World Series hero Anthony Reyes. Reyes, after going 4-15 for the Cards in 2007 and 2008, had an ERA under two in six late season starts for the Indians last season.

The decision to make Lewis — a 25 year old native Ohioan who attended Ohio State — the fifth starter was enabled by Laffey’s ineffectiveness, including a six runs-in-two-inning outing last week. Laffey, who will still be just 23 on Opening Day, probably had the edge at the beginning of camp, but was too inconsistent to hold the spot. He had an ERA near seven this March.

If you had to place an early bet on which starter would be the first recalled, it may not even be Laffey, but lefty Jeremy Sowers. A day after he was demoted, Sowers threw five scoreless innings in a minor-league game. Sowers was a bright spot in a dismal 2006 for Cleveland, winning seven of his 11 starts, but has lost 15 of his 20 the past two seasons with an ERA near six. The 25 year-old first round pick from Vanderbilt had an ERA just under five with the Tribe this spring.

Reports are that ex-Yankee Carl Pavano has shown an excellent change-up and good bite on his slider, but his fastball has not yet hit 90. The big league average is 90 mph, thus Pavano really needs to get it up there if he expects to compete against the best teams. But the good news is Pavano has been healthy after 2007 elbow reconstruction surgery, which is good since Jake Westbrook will push for this spot upon return.

“Jake Westbrook threw off the mound in a bullpen session and you’d never guess that he had reconstructive elbow surgery last June 12,” Akron Beacon Journal columnist Terry Pluto noted last week. “His fastball was in the upper 80s. He is beginning to throw a few breaking balls. Something can always go wrong, but so far, this is very promising.”

Westbrook’s goal is to be starting rehabilitation games in the minors by May, and to be back with the Tribe by June 12 — the one year anniversary of his surgery.

“If that happens and he is anything close to the guy who had a 3.12 ERA in his first five starts last season (or 46 wins between 2004-06), the rotation can suddenly look a lot better,” Pluto added.

Offensively this spring, Jhonny Peralta and Grady Sizemore have been crushing the ball, hitting over .400 with power. Asdrubal Cabrera, thankfully, looks far more like the 2007 version, or the guy who hit .320 after the All-Star break last season, than the 22 year-old who opened the 2008 season at .184, and therefore had to spend a month in Buffalo to regain his focus at the plate.

First baseman Ryan Garko has shed 15 pounds, and showed up early to spring training to learn the outfield in order to potentially spell starters Shin-Soo Choo, Sizemore and Ben Francisco. Twenty-four-year-old Super prospect Matt LaPorta, who the Indians obtained in the Sabathia trade last summer, is being groomed for a quick promotion. LaPorta, a first baseman by trade with questionable defense, will spend time in right and left as well. It appears the idea is to prepare the phenom to play different spots as needed in Cleveland.

Will the Cleveland Indians be a playoff team in 2009?

Yes

No

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Filed Under: MLB Tagged With: AL Central, cleveland indians, grady sizemore, MLB

IndyCar Series Rev’s up for ’09

March 31, 2009 By EJWasson Leave a Comment

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Dateline: Indianapolis, IN

The IndyCar Series fires up the 2009 racing season at St. Petersburg this weekend. The Honda Grand Prix of St. Petersburg, the first race of the 2009 campaign, is scheduled for 2pm Eastern on Versus this Sunday. In advance of the chaos, here are a few things to keep in mind for the coming season.

Same Bat Time: Different Bat Channel:

This year marks the start of what ICS officials hope to be a beautiful relationship. The VERSUS network has picked up exclusive rights to most of the IndyCar Series events this year. There are still a handful of events that will be carried on ABC (including the Indianapolis 500), but for the majority of the season the change in scenery could be a wonderful thing for IndyCar fans. In the past, the races had been covered on ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPN Classic as well as ABC. If an event that was scheduled before the ICS races ran long…the ICS would get bumped to another channel and race fans everywhere would lunge for the remote to catch up to the action. Now, with a dedicated channel and an impressive broadcast team, the coverage could finally be what the series’ intense racing action deserves.

The broadcast team includes; Bob Jenkins, Jon Beekhuis and Robbie Buhl in the booth. They are joined by Jack Arute, Robbie Floyd and Lindy Thackston in pit lane. This talented and experienced team will provide an out-of-the-box enthusiasm and love for the sport that should translate well to it’s viewers.

Top 5 Drivers to Watch for 2009

With the vacancy of Helio Castroneves who is still out due to tax issues, the window for the next star of the IndyCar Series is wide open. For 2009, here is my list of drivers to watch:

1) Scott Dixon- The 2008 Indy 500 and IndyCar champion. He can never be overlooked as a possible contender for the season championship, and this year is no different.

2) Dario Franchitti- The 2007 Indy 500 and IndyCar champion is back from his year in NASCAR. Dario found the tin-tops to be a bit tougher than he envisioned. Dario belongs in open wheel racing, and he has done well there. I see no reason for that not to continue.

3) Robert Doornbos- The IndyCar “rookie” has a large amount of open wheel experience and is quite good on road courses. Watch for Robert to make an impact early. He carries experience from Formula 1, CART, Formula Ford and A1GP.

4) Dan Wheldon- With a jump to Panther Racing and the focus of a one car effort behind him, look for old Danny boy to be impressive and competitive. He re-joins Panther Racing for the first time since 2002, where he raced the final two races of the season as a teammate of one Sam Hornish Jr.? (Remember Sam? Look at the bottom 10 in NASCAR each week as he is regularly seen there)

5) Will Power- Will joins the mighty Team Penske and fills the vacant seat left by Helio’s off track issues. Will is solid on road courses and has proven he is a winner in each series he has been a part of. Put big time talent in a big time car and watch out. Will Power will be more than just a clever name by the end of the 2009 Campaign.

Even though I won’t put her in here, Danica Patrick is in a contract season and should have a solid year. Will she win any races in 2009? No. Will she be a player? Yes.

Stay tuned to MSF for more on the IndyCar series and my updates on the Honda Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.

If you twitter, follow me @ejwassonmsf for late breaking and live alerts during all IndyCar events.

Filed Under: Auto Racing Tagged With: 2009 preview, Bob Jenkins, Danica Patrick, Grand Prix, IndyCar, will power

Final Four: Villanova-North Carolina Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

March 31, 2009 By Jerod Morris 21 Comments

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Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets

MSF Bracket Challenge

Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads

Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

History of Final Four in Indianapolis

Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

This post will analyze the Villanova-North Carolina Final Four game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat, just so there is no confusion: I want Villanova to win Saturday night.

In my original bracket I picked the Wildcats to lose in the Elite 8 to Pittsburgh (although I correctly reversed that in my preview last week) and picked North Carolina to make it to the title game before falling to UConn. Yet, while North Carolina is certainly fun to watch and I greatly respect their overall talents and abilities, there is just something special about how this emerging Villanova team is playing during the tournament.

They took UCLA behind the woodshed in round two and announced themselves as a tournament force to be reckoned with. Then, in the Sweet 16, they did college basketball fans everywhere a favor by kicking the snot out of Duke. And last week, Villanova and Pittsburgh treated us to the best game of the tournament, with Nova’s Scottie Reynolds providing the tournament’s most enduring moment thus far: his game-winner in the final seconds that propelled Villanova to Detroit and sent Pittsburgh home.

North Carolina has operated its way through the 2009 NCAA Tournament with surgical precision. After a close 25 or so minutes, they pulled away from LSU in Ty Lawson’s triumphant return from the toe injury that had led many people to question North Carolina coming into the tournament. Then they destroyed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 and laid the hammer down on Oklahoma in the Elite 8.

Now these two teams, with their combined tournament margin of victory of 18.5 points, meet to decide who plays the winner of Michigan State-UConn for the NCAA title. A lot of people are expecting an easy North Carolina victory, and the Tar Heels are favored by 7.5; but Villanova has taught us during this postseason run that you underestimate the boys from Philly at your own risk.

Unfortunately for Villanova, North Carolina underestimated their Final Four opponent last year and got smoked in the process. With almost the exact same team back again this year, I do not think the Tar Heels will be taking anyone lightly.

Let’s take a quick look at the particulars for the Nova-UNC game on Saturday night and then proceed with the analysis and prediction.

Villanova-North Carolina Final Four Preview and Prediction

Tickets: 2009 Final Four Tickets from StubHub
Final Four Quick Preview
Final Four Date: Saturday, April 4th
TV: CBS (or March Madness On Demand)
Villanova-UNC Game Time: 8:47 PM ET
Location: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
Spread: North Carolina -7.5
Over-Under: 159
ESPN Team Pages: Villanova | North Carolina

(FYI…the above spread and over-under are from BetUs on 3/31 at 7:30 am, so you may want to check there for the most up-to-date info if you see this later in the week. And I realize that this number is probably different from what Game Predictor shows below. I don’t know where ESPN gets that spread info.)

Now, as we always do in this spot, let’s take a look at the matchup between these two teams based on their season averages in the five statistical categories we have used to analyze every game thus far since the Sweet 16:

Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.155 | Villanova – 1.076
Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.932 | Villanova – 0.935
Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.416 | Villanova – 1.120
Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.765 | Villanova – 0.753
Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.414 | Villanova – 0.403

North Carolina’s numbers are pretty impressive aren’t they? One thing is for sure: this is the best matchup since the Sweet 16 in terms of free throw shooting.

Well we know from experience that Game Predictor will spit out North Carolina as a heavy favorite. The question is by how much. Let’s look:

Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 74.9% | Villanova – 25.1%
Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 74.3 | Villanova – 67.7
Odds to Cover Spread (Nova +7): North Carolina – 57.8% | Villanova – 42.2%
Confidence Level: 4 Stars

So Game Predictor basically believes that if North Carolina and Villanova took the court to play their Final Four matchup ten times, that North Carolina would win seven or eight of them. And I do not disagree with that at all. However, as we know, they only play once. And there are two important reasons why Villanova absolutely has hope heading into Saturday:

1985
April 5, 2008

The first reason, of course, refers to the legendary upset victory by Villanova over Georgetown in the 1985 NCAA Championship game. The Wildcats were seeded 8th and somehow found a way to overcome Patrick Ewing and the Hoyas. The second reason refers to last year’s Final Four, when North Carolina was absolutely demolished by Kansas 84-66. That North Carolina team was led by Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, and Wayne Ellington. This year’s North Carolina team is led by Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, and Wayne Ellington. If they are capable of throwing up that kind of egg in the Final Four once, does it not stand to reason that they are capable of doing it again?

And does Roy Williams really – I mean really — have your complete trust in the NCAA Tournament? How many times has this guy fallen below expectations in March? I understand that the expectations and the bar he set at Kansas and North Carolina have been ridiculously high, and Roy Williams has certainly compiled an impressive record and list of accomplishments, including Final Fours and Elite 8s and even one title. But If this North Carolina team, favored by most to win the title, falls just short of that goal, they will only be carrying on the postseason legacy of Roy Williams: close, but rarely (just once) a cigar.

Starting to feel good Villanova fans!?!

Well, calm down. The odds of winning are still not even close to being stacked in your favor.

But let’s look a little deeper and see if we can’t find some reasons why Villanova will win this game. Carolina is the prohibitive favorite, but nothing is guaranteed in sports, which is what makes them so great. So as we did with Michigan State-UConn, let’s look at three reasons why Villanova will win and then three reasons why they will not.

Three Reasons Why Villanova Can Beat North Carolina

1 — All you have to do is stop Ty Lawson

Take a look at the four losses North Carolina suffered this year and you begin to understand why so many people in Chapel Hill were worried about Ty Lawson’s toe heading into the tournament.

In North Carolina’s ACC Tournament loss to Florida State, Lawson did not play. Bobby Frasor did a wonderful job of filling in by going 0-1 from the field, scoring 2 points, grabbing 2 rebounds, and dishing out 1 assist…in 33 minutes, which surprisingly was not enough.

In North Carolina’s three regular season losses, all ACC contests to Boston College, Wake Forest, and Maryland, Lawson was not his usual all-around great self. In UNC’s loss to Maryland, Lawson did score 24 points, but had only two assists against four turnovers in 41 minutes of play. Against Wake Forest, a 92-89 loss for the Tar Heels, Lawson played 34 minutes and only scored 9 points on 4-12 from the field with 5 assists and 4 turnovers. And in North Carolina’s 85-78 loss to Boston College, Ty Lawson scored 10 points on 3-13 shooting with 4 assists and 4 turnovers.

The key to beating North Carolina is pretty simple: shut down Ty Lawson; and Villanova has very good guards, with experience playing against very good guards in the Big East. (More on this to come later.)

2 — Villanova has momentum and confidence

Villanova has beaten two good teams (UCLA and Duke) into submission and then pulled out a gritty, exciting win in the final seconds over one of the four or five best teams in the last country last weekend. Plus, Villanova has the Big East arrogance that they are well within their right to have, knowing that they duked it out in one of the best conferences ever this season. The Wildcats will not be intimidated by the mystique and 2009 reputation of mighty North Carolina.

To contrast, look at North Carolina’s last two opponents.

Sure, Oklahoma played a great game against Syracuse in the Elite 8, but that was just a week after they endured a knock-down, drag-out fight against a Michigan team that — I’m sorry Wolverine fans — just is not that good. And this came on the heels of a poor performance in the Big 12 Tournament and over the last few weeks of the season as the Sooners struggled to return to form after Blake Griffin’s injury. Plus, the Sooners relied a freshman guard in Willie Warren to help shoulder the scoring load, and he just was not up to the task.

In the Sweet 16, North Carolina took on a Gonzaga team that had been taken to the final seconds by Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a good team, but by no means great. It had to be in the back of the Zags’ collective mind that they were within a hair of losing to Western Kentucky; how in the hell could they compete with one of the most talented teams in America?

Villanova will have no such self-doubt and will not be intimidated. And say what you will, but North Carolina dominated Oklahoma and Gonzaga as much mentally as they did physically and from an execution standpoint.

Villanova has an experienced backcourt led by a guy in Scottie Reynolds who is proving himself to be a player who comes through in big March moments. He is that one guy that every championship team needs who will come through in big situations, regardless of how well he is playing that night. Case in point: the Pitt game. Reynolds was 4-11 from the field and 0-3 from downtown. He had 1 assist and 4 turnovers. Yet he came through with the game-winning play.

Plus, Villanova is one of the few schools in America that can legitimately lay claim to a pedigree that includes one of the five or ten biggest upsets in the history of sports. The underdog role suits this school just fine. I think that matters. A lot.

Combine all of these individual components and Villanova can look North Carolina in the eye and not blink, and that is huge.

3 — If you are going to beat North Carolina, you better have a guy who can deliver an incredible individual performance.

Look at the evidence:

85-78 loss to Boston College: Tyrese Rice scores 25 points, grabs 8 boards, and dishes on 5 assists (and gets 22 points and 6 rebounds worth of help, plus 4-7 3-point shooting, from Rakim Sanders).
92-89 loss to Wake Forest: Jeff Teague scores 34 points on 9-17 shooting (3-4 from downtown) while grabbing 6 boards and dishing 4 assists.
88-85 loss to Maryland: Greivis Vasquez is sensational, scoring 35 points in 44 minutes of play on 13-24 shooting (5-10 from downtown). He also has 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
73-70 loss to Florida State: Toney Douglas scores 27 points on 10-18 shooting, plus 4 assists and 4 boards.

The purported Achilles’ Heel for North Carolina all season long has been their defense. They are prone to lapses every now and then, and on those nights individual players who are ready to step up can lead their team to victory. Does Villanova have a player capable of such a transcendent individual performance on a big stage?

We already mentioned him: Scottie Reynolds.

Reynolds popped for 40 points once already this season, in a road victory over Seton Hall. He scored 31 in a road win over Providence. He scored 27 in a dominating win for Villanova over a good Marquette team.

And if Reynolds is not completely on his game, or if Villanova needs two outstanding performances like Boston College had against UNC, the Wildcats have Dante Cunningham. Cunningham scored 31 points in a win over Syracuse this year and has numerous big games in big spots like his double-doubles against UCLA and Duke in the tournament.

Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham are good enough to carry Villanova for a night and lead a victory, even over a team as good as North Carolina.

Three Reasons Why Villanova Cannot Beat North Carolina

1 — Both Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham, as good as they are, have blemishes on their big game resume this year

As good as Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham have proven themselves to be in some big spots this year, they have also played poorly in some of Villanova’s losses to good teams.

Cunningham had just 7 points and 6 rebounds in a 93-72 loss to West Virgnia earlier this year. He also was held to just 6 points and 3 rebounds in 14 minutes of play before fouling out against UConn. Granted, North Carolina does not have anyone like Hasheem Thabeet, but this is still a red flag.

For Reynolds’ part, he also also proven that he can shrink against good teams in big spots. In the Big East Tournament loss to Louisville, Reynolds scored 2 points on 1-6 shooting. In a loss to Texas early in the year he had 10 points on 2-7 shooting. And as well as he played in the clutch moments last weekend, Reynolds has not made more than 5 shots, or shot better than 50% from the field, in any NCAA Tournament game this year.

So while Reynolds and Cunningham are very good, sometimes great players, and are good more often than they are not, there is no margin for error on the part of either Saturday night. Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham need to be Oustanding (yes, with a capital “O”) on for Villanova to have a chance against North Carolina. They have proven to be capable of such performances in big spots, but have also shown the capability to shrink in big moments as well.

Which Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham will show up? The answer to that question will determine whether or not Villanova can compete.

2 — Shutting down Ty Lawson is no easy task

Yet another paradoxical dichotomy in this list of reasons. While it is true that the Tar Heels become a much more beatable team if Ty Lawson is having an off night, he very rarely has them. Look at Lawson’s game log for this season. He had terrible numbers against Georgia Tech and the Tar Heels still won by 30, but for the most part, Lawson has been very consistent outside of the four losses cited above.

And have you seen him play in the tournament? Is there anything that leads you to believe he won’t have a great game on Saturday?

In three tournament games, Lawson is 20-35 from the field, 14-16 from the line, and 7-11 from downtown. He has scored 23, 19, and 19 points in the three games he has played and has dished out 20 assists against 2 turnovers. And the final rankings of the last three Carolina opponents have been #20, #10, and #8. So he is doing this against solid competition, regardless of how intimidated they may have looked.

Simply put, Ty Lawson has been the best and most important player in the NCAA Tournament thus far.

Villanova has shown the ability to shut down good point guards. Just last weekend they held Levance Fields to only 10 points on 2-8 shooting, although he did have a 6/0 assist/turnover line. Against Syracuse earlier this year, they held Jonny Flynn to 5-17 shooting and only 12 points. Conversely, in a loss to UConn, AJ Price scored 29 points on 10-13 shooting and had 5 assists.

It is hard to predict Ty Lawson doing anything but having a stellar night. Villanova is capable of frustrating him and forcing Lawson to struggle, but it’s more of an I’ll-believe-it-when-I-see-it type proposition as far as I’m concerned. Ty Lawson has earned that trust with his play this season.

3 — There is a reason Villanova was a #3 seed: inconsistency

When Villanova is on their game, the Wildcats can obviously play with anybody in the country. However, they are also prone to having that game every now and then where they inexplicably play poorly and struggle.

For instance, after knocking off then-#20 Syracuse and then-#12 Marquette in back-to-back games in February, ‘Nova lost 93-72 to West Virginia. Furthermore, to begin December after a 12-1 start to the year, Villanova dropped 3 out of 5 games, losing to top-25 teams Marquette, Louisville, and UConn during the stretch while beating only Seton Hall and St. John’s. And after a thrilling win over Marquette in the Big East Tournament, the Wildcats were shellacked 69-55 by a Louisville team that was on an absolute roll.

I hate to say it, but I see some parallels between what happened in the Big East Tournament and what could happen on Saturday night.

The last four games of the season for Villanova:

77-60 dominant win at Notre Dame
97-80 dominant win over Providence
76-75 tough, hard-fought win over a very good Marquette team
69-55 loss to a streaking Louisville squad

The last four games of the tournament for Villanova:

89-69 dominant win over UCLA
77-54 dominant win over Duke
78-76 tough, hard-fought win over a very good Pitt team
??-?? ???? to a streaking North Carolina squad

Substitute the ?’s with the same result from the Louisville game and you being to understand my trepidation. And while I realize that UCLA and Duke are much better than Notre Dame and Providence, the fact remains that this is a troubling pattern for Villanova that I cannot get past when analyzing this game — no matter how much I want to pick the Wildcats.

So it should come as no surprise to you that I begrudgingly pick North Carolina to not just win the game Saturday night, but to cover the spread. And it should also come as no surprise that, just as I said after picking UConn to beat Michigan State, I hope I am wrong.

In both games Saturday night I will be cheering against my own picks. I want the underdogs Michigan State and Villanova to win, and I correctly picked them both to triumph as underdogs in the Elite 8. I just do not see in the stats, season history, or matchups, legitimate reasons to believe that they will be able to capture the magic for one more weekend.

Please Villanova fans, as I implored the Spartans fans to do, use the comment section to tell me why I am wrong and to give me hope heading into Saturday. I will be firmly in your corner, cheering loudly and hoping for a ‘Nova upset over the Tar Heels — I will just be very, very surprised if that hope turns into reality.

Of course, there was even less belief in 1985 and we all know how that turned out…

What do you think?

Who do you think will win the Final Four game between North Carolina and Villanova?

North Carolina

Villanova

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Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Filed Under: CBB Tagged With: 2009 Final Four, 2009 NCAA Tournament, CBB, March Madness, North Carolina Tar Heels, roy williams, Scottie Reynolds, Ty Lawson, Villanova Wildcats

John Calipari-Kentucky Update: Contract Negotiations Ongoing, Deal Appears Imminent

March 30, 2009 By Jerod Morris 8 Comments

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ESPN.com is reporting tonight that John Calipari and the University of Kentucky are “inching closer” to a deal and that something could even be ironed out as soon as late tonight. (Coincidentally, the picture to the left is reporting that John Calipari likes to spontaneously air-ride motorcycles in the middle of basketball games.)

It’s 11:00 CT as I write this, and I have seen no announcement yet.

According to the ESPN report, the deal being negotiated between John Calipari and Kentucky is for 8 years and somewhere in the neighborhood of $35 million. Such a deal would make Calipari the highest paid coach in America, despite the fact that he has never won a national title nor coached in a conference other than the Atlantic 10 or Conference USA. Hmm…

For more on the bio and career of John Calipari, we traced his successes (at UMass and Memphis) and failures (the NBA, his reputation with the public and some peers) over what has certainly been a distinguished and somewhat controversial career.

Currently, Calipari has four years left on his Memphis deal, which pays him $2.35 million annually. The AP reported that Memphis AD R.C. Johnson said that Memphis will do whatever it can to keep Calipari with the Tigers. Something tells me that 8 years and $35 million may be a bit out of their price range; but, the Tigers are the only game in town, so perhaps they can dig deep and keep their coach around.

Also of interest to Kentucky and Memphis fans: recent Memphis commit DeMarcus Cousins has not signed a letter of intent with Kentucky, and could follow Calipari to Lexington and play next year. Memphis is also supposedly a finalist for the top unsigned player remaining in the class of ’09: John Wall.

Thus, If Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson stay in school and Calipari comes galloping into town (or air-riding a Harley) with Cousins and Wall, the fortunes of the Wildcats could turn around pretty quickly.

(Excuse me for a moment while the Cream & Crimson blood pumping through my veins induces me to vomit. And while I realize that statement does not make physiological sense, all IU fans know what I’m talking about.)

I’ll keep you posted on what happens, but let’s be honest: you’ll probably find out about a final deal between Calipari and Kentucky before I get it posted here. However, if you want funny John Calipari pics to go along with your Calipari-Kentucky updates, we’re your source!

And, as always, we can’t post about John Calipari without also embedding this video:

If Calipari ups and leaves Memphis for the bluer pastures of Lexington, John Chaney might not be the only person who wants a piece of Coach Cal.

But seriously, he’s a college basketball coach, with a rep as being one of the sleazier ones in the business, and Kentucky is going to pay him more than any other coach in America. Can you honestly say that you’d be surprised, or begrudge him, for leaving?

I can’t. And the truth is, it’s probably a hell of a move for Kentucky if it happens.

Plus, we’ll all get a chance to see if Calipari can only dominate as a big fish in a small pond, or if he can truly build a winner in a legitimately competitive conference.

I just hope that if Calipari is at Kentucky that Tom Crean and the Hoosiers give him a proper ass-whooping welcome in the IU-Kentucky game next year. Losing to Kentucky would be bad enough. Losing to Kentucky with John Calipari on the sidelines…well that would just be…dirty.

And it would make me feel like this:

Good luck Kentucky. Calipari will win games, and all things considered I like this hire for the Wildcats if it comes to fruition, if for no other reason than Kentucky fans and their administration have proven that all they care about is winning.

But all I will say is this: Indiana once made a desperate deal with the devil not too long ago during a moment of weakness when winning was the only thought on our minds. We hired a coach that had been to the Final Four but had never won a title, who was dogged by a less-than-sterling reputation among his peers, and whose huge ego drove him to chase a bigger contract and a higher prestige job right after signing a great recruiting class at his old school.

Sound familiar?

It all started out great — or so we thought — and then a couple of years later we won 7 games.

Look, I don’t know if John Calipari’s reputation is spot-on, or more fact than fiction, or vice versa, and I’m not saying John Calipari will be anything like Coach Snake (nor do I wish that kind of malfeasance on anyone). I’m just saying be careful. When winning is the only consideration, sometimes you end up getting exactly what you wish for…right before getting kicked in the groin with a steel-toed boot that you never see coming.

Just saying…

What do you think?

Is John Calipari a good fit for Lexington and the Kentucky Wildcats?

Yes

No

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Filed Under: CBB Tagged With: CBB, John Calipari, kentucky wildcats

The Trainer’s Room: Abdominal Muscle Strains – Symptoms, Treatment, and Prevention

March 30, 2009 By Mountain View Pain Center 70 Comments

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plank-abdominal-muscle-strain-prevention

(The Trainer’s Room is a regular column at Midwest Sports Fans by Denver chiropractors Dr. Niall McNally and Dr. Ihsan Erhuy, the pain and rehabilitation experts at the Mountain View Pain Center in Denver, CO.

All treatment options provided in this article should not be taken as specific advice, but rather as a general guide regarding what is typically done to treat the injury being described. You should always consult your doctor before beginning any pain management or rehab program.)

With the exciting end to the World Baseball Classic and Opening Day just around the corner, we have decided to discuss strained and torn abdominal muscles for this article. In fact, two players were recently plagued with similar abdominal muscle strains: Chipper Jones and Dustin Pedroia.

Chipper Jones, from the Atlanta Braves, had to be pulled out for a week from the WBC tournament after suffering an abdominal muscle strain. He even had to leave the game against Venezuela because of the injury. Dustin Pedoria from the Red Sox was also sidelined with a strained abdominal muscle.

Disclaimer: First, we must warn you that abdominal pain is an abnormal occurrence, and is not to be taken lightly; you must seek medical attention right away as this could be something more serious than a strained muscle. We advise anyone having any abdominal pain to please contact your medical practitioner right away.

Abdominal Muscle Strain Symptoms

It is important to know that this type of injury can take some time to heal (time will depend on the severity of the injury). Often in the case of a complete muscle tear the pain is instant and very intense. The pain description most patients give is knife-like or sharp pain at the site of injury. The pain results from micro-tears in the musculature that occurs during torsion (twisting) movements. Other common signs and symptoms of an abdominal strain or tear can be tenderness and inflammation over the area.

Unfortunately, basically everything we do during the day is aided with the contraction of the abdominal musculature, since it is an important muscle of core stabilization. As a result, an abdominal muscle strain can cause pain all day long, and any movement involving flexion of the trunk can also cause an increase in pain. Examples of this are as simple as sitting up or getting out of bed in the morning.

Muscle strain grades

1st Degree: Minimal damage to the muscle, tendon, or musculotendinous unit
2nd Degree: Partial tear to the muscle, tendon, or musculotendinous unit
3rd Degree: Complete disruption to the muscle, tendon, or musculotendinous unit

One of the reasons it can take so long to recover is because you constantly use the muscles while breathing; and, as we mentioned above, we use our abdominal musculature in basic stabilization throughout the day. However, it is possible to have a minor strain that can heal in a relatively short period of time, if the appropriate steps are taken.

Another result of abdominal muscle weakness is an increase of the lumbar curvature (hyperlordosis), which in many instances can lead to low back pain. If a complete tear of the musculature occurs there is also a possibility of a further complication, such as a hernia.

Abdominal Muscle Strain Treatment

Kinesio-taping, although fairly new, has been shown to have great results with this type of injury. The specific method of kinesio-taping depends on which muscle has sustained the injury and can be determined by your doctor.

The injury that Chipper Jones suffered from was an oblique injury. The external oblique muscle fibers run downward and medial (toward one another), and they cooperate in the flexion of the trunk by resisting one another. If the fibers on only one side are contracted, then the action performed is lateral flexion and rotation of the trunk to the opposite side.

The kinesio-taping method for this type of injury is fairly simple. For an external oblique injury your doctor would find the muscle in question and apply specialized tape in the direction of the fibers. Do not read this and think you can tape yourself. Remember you must use a specific type of elastic tape, and the application and direction of the tape is very important. If the taping is done properly it will provide increased stability to the area. If done improperly it can result in an ineffective treatment.

One of the other most effective types of treatment for this injury is everyoneâ€™s favorite advice: ice it and rest it. After the initial injury, apply ice to the area in question quickly to prevent it from further developing unnecessary swelling. The second part of the recommendation, rest, is of course the last thing any athlete wants to hear, but it is an important step in the recovery process. Remember that with an injury like a muscle strain, if you do not give your body time to heal then you can damage the muscle further or risk tearing the already weakened muscle all together.

Supplementation

There is no quick fix for an abdominal muscle strain. However, there are supplement protocols out there to help reduce inflammation and promote healing.

Many studies have shown that ginger root has many benefits, one of which is the reduction of inflammation. Many traditional herbal practitioners use ginger root to aid in the treatment of arthritis, bursitis, and ulcerative colitis, all of which are inflammatory conditions.
Omega Fatty Acids are also very beneficial in the healing process.
Vitamin C and other bio flavinoids are also beneficial in the healing of connective tissues.

Abdominal Muscle Strain Prevention

The best things you can do to prevent an abdominal muscle strain is to properly train your body. You may ask yourself, then why do professional athletes suffer from this injury? Are they not properly trained? Well in most instances yes, they are properly trained; however, it is also possible to strain or tear the muscle from over training your body. The best way to prevent injury is to consult your doctor or trainer and set up a program that helps to strengthen your core. Some common exercises for this can be done on the physio-ball and many are free weight exercises such as the plank maneuver (pictured right).

Another important prevention method is to make sure you have the appropriate technique when performing your exercises. Whether you are swinging a bat or lifting weights in the gym, having the correct technique is very important to protecting the body from injury. If you want to take it a step further, you can see your practitioner or a sports therapist to see if there is a muscle imbalance or something altering your posture that may have a weakening effect on your core.

As far as Chipper Jones and other professional athletes with similar injuries, we predict that they should recover from their injuries within 1-4 weeks (depending on severity of their injury).

Disclaimer: Once again, we must warn that abdominal pain is not a normal occurrence. Please seek medical attention right way. This article is the opinion of the Mountain View Pain Center, for this particular type of injury. If you feel you have had a similar type of injury please contact your primary care physician and do not attempt to perform any of these treatments without the approval and supervision of your doctor.

______________________________

The Trainer’s Room is written exclusively for Midwest Sports Fans by Denver chiropractors Dr. Niall McNally and Dr. Ihsan Erhuy of the Mountain View Pain Center in Denver, CO. You can contact them by leaving a comment below or sending an email to info@mountainviewpaincenter.com.

Dr. Niall McNally is certified in chiropractic neurology and has a strong background in sports injuries and in the rehabilitation of common nagging athletic problems. Dr. McNally also is trained in pediatrics, orthopedics, and nutrition.

He graduated from the University of Central Oklahoma and successfully completed his Doctor of Chiropractic degree at the Parker College of Chiropractic in Dallas, TX. A very active athlete, Dr. McNally played hockey up into the junior level. In fact, it was his love for hockey, and the Colorado Avalanche, that originally gave him the idea to one day practice sports medicine and chiropractics in the area.

Dr. Ihsan Erhuy specializes in motor vehicle accident injures, back, neck, and extremity problems, as well as treating pregnant patients and children. He is certified in the Diversified, Gonstead, Thompson, Upper Cervical, Activator, Sacral Occipital, Applied Kinesiology, Soft Tissue techniques.

Originally from Adana, Turkey, Dr. Erhuy graduated from the University of Arizona and also susuccessfully completed his Doctor of Chiropractic degree, along with his bachelor of science in health and wellness, at the Parker College of Chiropractic in Dallas, TX.

Filed Under: The Trainer's Room Tagged With: abdominal muscle strain, sports injuries

Video: Guitar Hero Commercial with Bob Knight, Rick Pitino, Roy Williams, and Coach K

March 30, 2009 By Jerod Morris 8 Comments

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Oh my goodness.

I’ve only watched this one time and it is already among the five greatest commercials I’ve ever seen. Say what you will about Bob Knight, but is there a college basketball coach in history that has a greater sense of humor?

Behold, the genius of Guitar Hero marketing, and the rage of Bob Knight overshadowing the attitude of Metallica:

Video: Guitar Hero Commercial Featuring Bob Knight, Rick Pitino, Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzewski and Metallica

Filed Under: CBB Tagged With: bob knight, Coach K, funny, Rick Pitino, roy williams

Final Four: Michigan State-Connecticut Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

March 30, 2009 By Jerod Morris 8 Comments

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Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets

MSF Bracket Challenge

Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads

Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

History of Final Four in Indianapolis

Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

This post will analyze the Michigan State-Connecticut Final Four game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

This is the Final Four matchup, Michigan State versus UConn, that I picked from the very start. I have to admit that I became less and less confident that it would actually happen as the tournament unfolded, but it has proven a few tournament cliches true:

Teams with talented, experienced, and battle-tested guards win in March.
Teams that get consistent production from their low-post players win in March.
Free throw shooting matters in March.

Michigan State and UConn have not been perfect in these areas through four games, but they have been better and more consistent in these areas than any other team on their side of the bracket. And the reason is the two incredible coaches that are on the sideline: Tom Izzo and Jim Calhoun.

UConn coach Jim Calhoun started his career at Northeastern University in 1972. He remained their coach until 1986 and compiled a 248-137 record. In five out of his last six seasons there, they made the NCAA Tournament, three times advancing to the second round. In 1986, Calhoun took over a struggling Connecticut program and went a combined 13-35 in the Big East during his first three seasons in Storrs. Since then, he has won two national championships, reached the Final Four this year, made five other Elite 8 appearances, four additional Sweet 16 appearances, and earned 556 victories against only 204 losses. Without question, Jim Calhoun is among the top handful of coaches in America today.

Also with him in the handful of top coaches is Tom Izzo of Michigan State. I have made no secret of my basketball-man-crush on Tom Izzo, and the Spartans’ tournament run this season is only reinforcing what I’ve already thought: Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches in America, period. You can debate who is the best, but you better include Izzo in the debate. (And I hope that someday his protege Tom Crean is in the debate as well, but that remains to be seen.)

Just look at the resume Tom Izzo has compiled in East Lansing since taking over for Jud Heathcote in 1995. Izzo is 335-136 and has tied or won the Big Ten conference five times. His true greatness, however, can be seen in the NCAA Tournament.

The Spartans made the NIT during Izzo’s first two years in town, but have made the NCAA Tournament every season since 1997-98. During that span, Izzo and the Spartans have won a national championship (2000), reached the Final Four four other tmes (1999, 2001, 2005, 2009), reached the Elite 8 in 2003, and have been to the Sweet 16 two other times (1998, 2008). The Spartans’ masterful upset stomping of Louisville yesterday in Indianapolis was a microcosm of the tournament greatness that Izzo has consistently displayed at Michigan State.

This Saturday in Detroit, Izzo and the Spartans battle Calhoun and the Huskies for the chance to play for all the marbles on Monday night. UConn and its Big East pedigree are favored, but if we learned anything from this weekend, it is this: don’t count the Spartans out. They knocked off the Big East champions in impressive fashion and will no doubt give UConn all it can handle.

Let’s take a look at the particulars and then break down the game itself.

Michigan State-UConn Final Four Preview and Prediction

Tickets: 2009 Final Four Tickets from StubHub
Final Four Quick Preview
Final Four Date: Saturday, April 4th
TV: CBS (or March Madness On Demand)
MSU-UConn Game Time: 6:07 PM ET
Location: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
Spread: Connecticut -4.5
Over-Under: 135
ESPN Team Pages: Michigan State Spartans | Connecticut Huskies

(FYI…the above spread and over-under are from BetUs on 3/30 at 7:45 am, so you may want to check there for the most up-to-date info if you see this later in the week. I don’t know where ESPN gets the spread info listed below that is used on the Game Predictor.)

And now, it’s time to analyze this matchup.

As you know, I have been using the ESPN Game Predictor to analyze every game since the Sweet 16 started. Based on the output from the Game Predictor, plus my own intuition, I have correctly picked 11 out of the last 12 games (missing only on Syracuse-Oklahoma). And that’s straight up, I don’t know what the record is against the spread, but it’s probably 9 or 10 out of 12. (I don’t gamble, so I don’t pay attention to how the spread picks do.)

Either way, I have become significantly more accurate forecasting games with some actual data as opposed to just going on gut feeling and my limited experience watching all of these teams play.

With all that said, let’s see how these two teams stack up with respect to the same five statistical categories I have used to predict every game thus far:

Offensive Efficiency: UConn – 1.096 | Michigan State – 1.058
Defensive Efficiency: UConn – 0.891 | Michigan State – 0.925
Assist/TO Ratio: UConn – 1.268 | Michigan State – 1.181
Free Throw %: UConn – 0.679 | Michigan State – 0.698
Defensive Field Goal %: UConn – 0.376 | Michigan State – 0.414

UConn holds advantages in four of the five statistical categories, although not significant advantages. Still, I expect a pretty strong pick by Game Predictor in the direction of UConn because of how the stats came out and by virtue of their seeding of their strength of schedule. Let’s see:

Odds to Win Game: UConn – 60.0% | Michigan State – 40.0%
Most Likely Final Score: UConn – 72.3 | Michigan State – 69.4
Odds to Cover Spread (MSU +4): UConn – 53.6% | Michigan State – 46.4%
Confidence Level: 3 Stars

Now, before I get into my thoughts on this game, I want to say a few very important things to all of the Spartans fans out there:

The odds of Michigan State winning the Louisville game, according to Game Predictor, were 83.1% – 16.9%, with a confidence level of 4 stars. We know how that turned out.
In my original bracket (which currently sits at 96.9% in the ESPN Bracket Challenge!) I picked UConn to beat Michigan State and eventually win it all over North Carolina.
Bracket be damned, I will be rooting like crazy for Michigan State to win on Saturday.

However — and it pains me to say this — I do not have the same gut feeling about Michigan State beating UConn as I did about the Spartans defying the odds to beat Louisville.

Seeing as how this is a Midwest sports blog, and the Spartans have become my adopted team during this year’s tournament, let’s take a look at this game from an MSU perspective. Three reasons why they will win, and three reasons why they won’t.

Three Reasons Why Michigan State Will Beat Connecticut

1 — Goran Suton is playing out of his mind right now

Goran Suton, as he was against Kansas and Louisville, will be the key for Michigan State. In both of my previous Michigan State previews I’ve discussed the importance of Raymar Morgan, but the reality has been that Goran Suton has been the perfect Robin to Kalin Lucas’ Batman. Suton scored 19 points and had 10 boards against Louisville after going for 20-9 against Kansas. The Spartans need similar production from him on Saturday, and there is no reason to believe he can’t provide it.

Here is what else he needs to do: draw Hasheem Thabeet away from the basket at times, but also get the ball in the post and be savvy enough to draw fouls on the UConn big man. Connecticut only lost three games this year, two of them to Pitt and one to Georgetown. In one of the Pitt losses by UConn, Thabeet only played 23 minutes before fouling out with 5 points, 2 blocks and 4 rebounds. Against Georgetown, Thabeet played 34 minutes but only scored 4 points and had 7 rebounds to go along with 7 blocks. If Michigan State can get Thabeet in foul trouble and/or force him to struggle on the offensive end, it will greatly improve their chances. Goran Suton has to play a key role in any Thabeet neutralization strategy, and he certainly appears up to the task right now.

2 — Michigan State will be playing before a home-court crowd in Detroit

East Lansing is only a 90 minute from drive Detroit, and obviously there are lots of Spartan fans in the city already. Not since Duke played in the Final Four in Charlotte (eventually losing the title game to Arkansas) has a team enjoyed this kind of Final Four home court advantage. And it’s the best of both worlds for the Spartans: they were great away from home this year, but now get to play away from home in an environment that will still be hostile for their opponent. As an underdog, the home crowd can help to give the Spartans momentum. If Michigan State can keep the game close, the crowd will be their best friend.

3 — Kalin Lucas is one of the most underrated great players in America

I realize that Kalin Lucas was named Big Ten Player of the Year, but I still do not think he gets the recognition he deserves. I’m a Big Ten fan, and I did not truly come to appreciate Lucas until this tourney run. All he has done in the last two games is outduel Kansas’ scintillating point guard Sherron Collins, and then completely control the pace and tempo of the Louisville game against physical guys that were bigger than him. Lucas is a great ball-handler, an excellent passer, and an outstanding shooter. He is great spotting up or off the drive looking to score or to dish. He is slight of frame, and will be going up against a tremendously large and physical defense in UConn, but his quickness can help him overcome this disadvantage. If he can get into the lane, draw Hasheem Thabeet, and find open cutters or spot-up shooters, Michigan State can get open looks. If the Spartans knock them down, they will stay right with the Huskies.

3a — Depending on if there are any more revelations in the UConn recruiting controversy, the Huskies could be distracted

I don’t think this will be an issue, and it won’t e if nothing new develops with this story. I think Jim Calhoun is perfectly adept at dealing with the inevitable questions he will get about this story, and UConn did not seem the least bit distracted by it in disposing of Purdue and Missouri. I throw this out only as a caveat, since I am making this prediction on Monday. There are plenty of 24-hour news cycles between now and Saturday for the dust to be kicked up and distractions to take hold; but in the end, I don’t think the potential recruiting scandal at UConn will influence this game one way or the other.

Three Reasons Why Connecticut will beat Michigan State

1 — Hasheem Thabeet is a presence unlike any Michigan State has dealt with this year.

Let’s be honest: Hasheem Thabeet is unlike any presence any opposing team has dealt with this year in college basketball. 13.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks per game are the numbers, but Thabeet obviously affects a basketball game in multiple ways. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he will turn Michigan State into a jump shooting team, while offering UConn the ability to score down low on the other end.

Michigan State will undoubtedly try to draw Thabeet away from the basket by putting Suton out high like they did against Louisville. When this happens, I would not be surprised to see the Huskies let someone like Jeff Adrien or Stanley Robinson match up against him. Adrien is 6’7 with a big body and Robinson is 6’9 with a long wingspan. They can take turns bodying Suton up and making it hard for him to shoot his jumper, while simultaneously allowing Thabeet to roam the paint and take away the drive.

Either way, one of UConn’s great strengths is their ability to match up defensively with anyone they play. Tom Izzo will have to be ready to adjust and Kalin Lucas will need to penetrate into the teeth of the defense to create havoc.

2 — AJ Price is every bit as good as Kalin Lucas

Price is one of my favorite players in the country, and another guy that I think is underappreciated. he averages 14.7 points and 4.8 assists per game and is the Huskies’ most consistent shooter from three-point range. You need excellent guard play to win in the Final Four, especially against a team with a player as good as Kalin Lucas, and AJ Price gives UConn that dimension. And as Kemba Walker showed against Missouri, he can step in and provide clutch plays as well.

I like Price’s confidence and his calm demeanor and he will not get rattled even if Ford Field sounds like the Breslin Center. He has gone toe-to-toe with the best point guards in the Big East, playing in some of the most hostile environments, and has proven that he is one of the best in the country.

3 — Michigan State is a better free throw shooting team, but UConn gets to the line more often

As you can see above, the Spartans hold a 69.8% to 67.9% advantage over UConn in free throw shooting. However, for the season, Connecticut made 641 free throws out of 943 attempts, while Michigan State made 577 free throws on 828 attempts. The Huskies are big and physical at every position and the Spartans have to be careful not to foul too often. As we saw during the Elite 8 (especially in the Louisville-MSU and Pitt-Villanova games) the refs are calling things tight in the tournament. Against Louisville, Michigan State was whistled for 22 fouls and the Cardinals shot 18 free throws to the Spartans’ 7. Yet, Louisville only shot 55.6% from the line.

I don’t think the Spartans will be so fortunate if there is nearly a 2:1 ratio in free throw attempts and the ratio favors UConn.

The Huskies hit 26-32 from the line against Missouri, and 19-30 from the line against Purdue. In both games they dominated in free throws made and attempted, and the disparity in free throws made was larger than the final margin of victory. This is a huge part of the winning formula for UConn and the Spartans must be mindful of limiting the Huskies’ free attempts at the line.

With the way the tournament is being called this year, and UConn’s size and style of play, I think this could ultimately be the Spartans undoing.

As I said above, I picked UConn to win it all before the tournament started, but I have thrown my full fan support behind Michigan State. I love Tom Izzo, I love the way Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton, and Goran Suton are playing, and I love the fact that the city of Detroit gets to cheer on the home state team as we culminate another thrilling NCAA Tournament.

I just don’t think Michigan State will get by UConn.

I think they will keep it close and beat the 4-point spread, and I certainly think that they can win — in fact, I will never again be surprised by a Tom Izzo team winning a game it is not “supposed” to win in the tournament. And while I think that the Spartans’ chances are better than 40% to win, as predicted by Game Predictor, I think the chances are only about 46-47%. So if you ask me who I think will win, I have to answer UConn.

I hope I’m wrong, and I’ll be cheering hard that I am. But I do think that the most fitting way for this season to end is with an all Big East championship game. I don’t know yet whether or not I am predicting Villanova to upset North Carolina, but I am predicting Connecticut to hold up their end of the bargain.

What do you think?

Who do you think will win the first Final Four game on Saturday night between Michigan State and Connecticut?

Michigan State

Connecticut

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Now that I’ve given you my keys to the UConn-MSU game, and my prediction, feel free to use the comment section for yours. I only chose three on each side, but there are plenty of other important storylines and matchups that will help determine this game. Spartan fans, your job is to please convince me why I’m wrong and give me more hope heading into Saturday.

Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Filed Under: Big Ten Basketball, CBB Tagged With: 2009 Final Four, 2009 NCAA Tournament, CBB, Goran Suton, Jim Calhoun, Kalin Lucas, March Madness, Michigan State Spartans, Tom Izzo, UConn Huskies

Report: John Calipari to Kentucky Rumors Gaining Steam by the Hour

March 29, 2009 By Jerod Morris 7 Comments

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FYI — There have been plenty of updates on this story since I first posted it late last night. Scroll down to view the latest reports or click through to our latest post on Monday night, which discusses the ongoing contract negotiations between Calipari and Kentucky.

Now that the hype of Billy Donovan-to-Kentucky rumor mill has died down a bit, the question becomes what big name coach or up-and-coming former Wildcat will eventually take the job?

Earlier this past week, immediately after Billy Gillispie was fired, John Calipari’s name was apparently not one that was on the list. But according to a report at ESPN.com tonight, Calipari is very much on the list — most likely right at the top.

From the ESPN.com report by Pat Forde and Dana O’Neil about the possibility of John Calipari-to-Kentucky becoming a reality:

Memphis coach John Calipari has taken a place on Kentucky’s radar in its search to replace Billy Gillispie, multiple sources told ESPN.com’s Dana O’Neil and Pat Forde.

On Friday, a source told O’Neil that Calipari ‘likely would not be interested’ in the job but on Sunday, multiple sources said Calipari is indeed interested. A source also said Kentucky was gathering information on Calipari over the weekend.

According to Memphis sports information director Lamar Chance, Kentucky officials have not contacted Memphis for permission to speak to Calipari.

Other names tossed out in the ESPN report are former Wildcat players including current Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford and current Arkansas coach John Pelphry. Non-Kentucky guys Sean Miller (Xavier) and Thad Matta (Ohio State) are also mentioned. Tom Izzo is discussed, but more in terms of why he is not a candidate than why he would be.

Two quick words on Izzo going to Kentucky: no way.

But let’s circle back and discuss John Calipari. My knee jerk reaction to John Calipari-to-Kentucky rumors is that he would not be a good choice for Kentucky, but a great choice. Say what you will about Calipari’s recruiting tactics or his academic standards or his less than sterling reputation with some of his peers, but the guy knows how to build a winning college basketball program (at least on the floor).

Oh, but don’t ask John Chaney for a recommendation:

John Calipari took over UMass in 1988 and they went 10-18 in his first season. By 1992 the Minutemen were an NCAA Tournament fixture, advancing to at least the second round every season from 1992-1996, with an Elite 8 and Final Four sprinkled in. He left UMass to coach the Nets in the NBA, and we all know how that turned out. But then he triumphantly returned to college coaching in 2000 at Memphis, and over the last four years, the Tigers have gone 61-1 in Conference USA and made two Elite 8s plus a trip to the title game last year.

Calipari’s 446-140 record proves that he can coach and that he can lead a big time basketball program. He is also calm and cool when dealing with the media (for the most part) and slimy and dishonest gritty and resourceful enough to do what is necessary to compete in the oft-sleazy world of college basketball recruiting.

Now, critics will say that Calipari has never coached at a place as rabid as Lexington, nor in a conference as competitive and balanced as the SEC. And they would be right on both counts. But name a candidate who has experience coaching in a place like Lexington? Other than Rick Pitino, there aren’t many — and he isn’t a candidate. And while I’m sure Calipari enjoys being the alpha dog in Conference USA, his Tigers would still be an annual competitor for the title in any conference except maybe the Big East.

So is Calipari-to-Kentucky really a possibility? I don’t know. John Martin wrote a nice piece over at the Bleacher Report earlier today that offers some pretty compelling reasons why John Calipari will not be going to Kentucky. Chief among the reasons:

Memphis will pay Calipari whatever it takes to keep him (I agree);
Calipari enjoys the relative lack of “pressure” in Memphis as opposed to what he’d face in Lexington (I agree, but think he could handle it);
Calipari would have to rebuild Kentucky and teach them the Dribble Drive Motion offense (I disagree — I think he’d relish the challenge, plus he could have Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson as a foundation if they do not go pro);
Calipari has a son enrolled in Memphis city schools and a daughter at the University of Memphis and would not want to disrupt the family (I agree).

Our buddy MoonDog also offers up some similarly solid reasoning for why Calipari will not be going to Kentucky, including the killer recruiting class he has coming into Memphis next year.

Update 3/30 7:05 AM: Jeff Goodman of FoxSports.com is reporting that there is the possibility of a Calipari-Kentucky meeting this week. He also says that Calipari could potentially bring top recruits DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall with him to Lexington.

Update 3/30 10:00 AM: Andy Katz from ESPN.com is now reporting that John Calipari met with Kentucky officials at an “undisclosed location” on Sunday as is spending Monday meeting with Memphis officials discussing “what is expected to be a multiyear, multimillion offer to coach Kentucky.”

Update 3/30 11:30 AM: Thanks to Sparty and Friends for the tip, as it looks like John Calipari is not only interested in leaving Memphis for Kentucky, but at least one of his Memphis players reportedly says that Calipari “was talking like he was going to leave” during a team meeting. Sparty also reported that a Memphis radio station is saying the Kentucky offer to Calipari is $7 million per year.

All in all, it sounds like at least the possibility of Calipari-to-Kentucky is real. At the very least, Calipari will likely milk the interest into a new deal and more money with Memphis, or perhaps some kind of program/facilities upgrade if any area could use it. I don’t know Memphis basketball well enough to know if it could.

If I were Kentucky, I’d go after Calipari hard. Fans in Lexington care about one thing: winning. I don’t think John Calipari would be a good fit in a place like Bloomington, where academics, character, and program reputation are so highly valued (especially after the debacle with Coach Snake), but I think fans in Lexington are so desperate to be back on the national radar screen that the baggage and reputation that follows Calipari would be just fine.

(By the way, feel free to flame me for the last paragraph, as I am a biased IU fan, but that’s how I see it.)

One way or another, Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart knows that he has to make a big splash with this hire, and no one would make a bigger splash and restore optimism quicker than John Calipari. It would be a perfect marriage of a program with a gigantic ego and a coach with a gigantic ego, and with those two mutual interests intertwined, it just might be a perfect recipe for success on the court.

Filed Under: CBB Tagged With: CBB, John Calipari, Kentucky Basketball

2009 Final Four Quick Preview: Schedule, Info, Final Four History

March 29, 2009 By Jerod Morris 2 Comments

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Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets

MSF Bracket Challenge

Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads

Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

History of Final Four in Indianapolis

Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

The 2009 Final Four takes place in Detroit, a city that we all know is struggling in more ways than one.

The woes of the auto industry have been well documented, and there appears to be no immediate relief in sight. Certainly, Detroit is receiving significant bailout money from the government, but there is widespread debate over whether such money will help in the long-run, or only be a short-term band-aid for a problem that might require failure and reorganization to truly correct itself. The auto industry received $17.4 billion in loans from the government in the first round of federal bailouts, and President Barack Obama is scheduled to unveil phase two of the auto bailout Monday, March 30.

2009 Final Four Detroit - Tickets, TV Schedule, Spread, Announcers

In addition to the terrible economic problems facing the city, sports have not provided much relief this year.

The Detroit Lions completed the first 0-16 season in NFL history. The Detroit Tigers fell well below expectations in 2008 despite adding stars like Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to an already stacked team. The Detroit Pistons traded away former championship hero Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson and are struggling to hang onto the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The only bright spot has been the Detroit Red Wings, who currently are in 2nd place in the Western Conference with 107 points.

But next weekend, Detroit will be the center of the sports world when the Final Four comes to town. And to give the hometown fans something to cheer for, nearby Michigan State upset Louisville today to represent the region and provide some joy for sports fans in Motown.

Here is your Final Four Quick Preview, plus some relevant links, then the schedule for next weekend’s action:

2009 Final Four Quick Preview and Schedule

What: 70th Final Four
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
When: Saturday, April 4th and Monday, April 6th
Final Four Participants: Michigan State, Connecticut, Villanova, North Carolina
Official Website: 2009 Final Four in Detroit
Michigan State-Connecticut Preview and Prediction (coming soon)
Villanova-North Carolina Preview and Prediction (coming soon)
History: List of Past NCAA Champions
History: List of Past Final Four Participants
History: List of Past NCAA Tournament MOPs
History: One Shining Moment
Tickets: StubHub: 2009 Final Four Tickets
Tickets:RazorGator: 2009 Final Four Tickets
Accommodations: Priceline.com: Save up to 50% on Travel to Detroit for Final Four
Accommodations: Travelocity: Book Air + Hotel together for Final Four in Detroit

And here is the TV Schedule, announcers, and spread information for the 2009 Final Four: I’ll update the spread information as soon as it is available.

2009 Final Four TV Schedule, Site, Announcers, Spread

Game	Matchup	Date	Time	Location	Announcers	Spread
	FINAL FOUR
1	Midwest #2 Michigan State def. West #1 UConn 82-73	April 4	6:07 PM	Detroit, MI	Nantz-Kellogg	UConn -4.5
2	South #1 North Carolina def. East #3 Villanova 83-69	April 4	8:47 PM	Detroit, MI	Nantz-Kellogg	UNC -7.5

	NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
3	South #1 North Carolina def. Midwest #2 Michigan State 89-72	April 6	9:21 PM	Detroit, MI	Nantz-Kellogg	UNC -7.5

As I did for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games, I will be providing in-depth previews and predictions and updating spread/line information as it becomes available. (And FYI…since I started using Game Predictor to guide my picks, I’ve gone 10 for 11 picking the games, pending the final score of the North Carolina-Oklahoma game. My only goof was the Syracuse-Oklahoma game.)

Who do you think will win it all?

Who do you think will win the National Championship at the 2009 Final Four in Detroit?

Michigan State (42%, 96 Votes)

Connecticut (11%, 26 Votes)

Villanova (12%, 28 Votes)

North Carolina (35%, 77 Votes)

Total Voters: 227

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Interesting notes:

– This is the first time the city of Detroit has ever hosted a Final Four.

– The last time a “hometown” team played in the Final Four, as Michigan State is doing this year (approximate distance from East Lansing to Detroit: 92.5 miles), was 1994 when Duke lost to Arkansas in the championship game in Charlotte, NC.

– In 1988, Kansas won the national championship when the Final Four was played in Kansas City.

– Purdue and Louisville played in 1980 Final Four in Indianapolis; Louisville won the title.

– I’m sure there are a few others if you go back further in Final Four history, but certainly it does not happen often.

We will be updating the site and this page often over the next few days leading up to the Final Four, so check back often. As usual, it should be an exciting and compelling weekend of basketball, capped by the most poignant One Shining Moment yet.

Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Filed Under: CBB, Featured Column, TV and Betting Tagged With: 2009 Final Four, 2009 NCAA Tournament, CBB, March Madness, Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State to Represent Big Ten in Final Four After Dominating Louisville

March 29, 2009 By Jerod Morris 1 Comment

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Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets

MSF Bracket Challenge

Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads

Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

History of Final Four in Indianapolis

Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

Full disclosure: I am starting this post with 3:00 left in the Michigan State-Louisville game. The Spartans are currently up 64-47 and have completely beaten Louisville into submission. I have been shocked by how little heart and grit Louisville has shown. Obviously, Michigan State’s heart and grit come as no surprise and are a reflection of their outstanding coach Tom Izzo.

Not that it took any kind of special prognosticating power, but the keys that I outlined a couple of days ago absolutely ended up being the keys to victory for Michigan State. They did a great job making 3s and defending the 3, they contained Terrence Williams and Earl Clark, they did a great job on the glass, and they made free throws.

This was, for all intents and purposes, a perfect game played Michigan State. And it resulted in a double-digit victory.

Congratulations to Tom Izzo and the Spartans for playing their best game of the season in the biggest spot so far. Now they head to Detroit to take on Connecticut in the Final Four. The Spartans will once again be prohibitive underdogs, and once again will have the challenge of proving the “experts” wrong. I’m glad I stuck with my gut feeling and maintained confidence in Michigan State. They certainly maintained confidence in themselves and the city of Detroit will now get to enjoy watching the home state team in the Final Four.

Click Here for Final Four Tickets in Detroit From StubHub

Here is the box score: Michigan State Beats Louisville 64-52

Photo Gallery: Michigan State-Louisville photos from ESPN.com

Schedule: Final Four Info and Tickets

Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Filed Under: Big Ten Basketball, CBB, Featured Column Tagged With: 2009 Elite 8, 2009 Final Four, CBB, Louisville Cardinals, March Madness, Michigan State Spartans, Tom Izzo

LOTD Video: Scottie Reynolds Shot Beats Pitt, Villanova to Final Four

March 29, 2009 By Jerod Morris Leave a Comment

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What a freaking game.

I was anticipating Pitt-Villanova to be highly entertaining, closely contested game that came down to the wire, and it was even better than I expected. It was also perhaps my most shining moment as a Sweet 16/Elite 8 prognosticator, as Villanova’s close victory was exactly what I predicted.

And the MMP (Most Memorable Play) of the Villanova victory over Pitt came courtesy of Villanova’s superb guard Scottie Reynolds. The video is below, courtesy of Robert Littal at Black Sports Online:

Video: Scottie Reynolds Last Second Buzzer Beater Leads Villanova to Victory Over Pitt

LOTD: Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds Destroying Many Office Brackets With the Buzzer Beater — (Black Sports Online)

I was unable to actually watch this play live, which is why I hopped online to find video of the Scottie Reynolds buzzer beater as quickly as I could. I was out late last night at a sublime authentic German restaurant for my girlfriend’s grandfather’s 92nd birthday. One of the attendees had the March Madness app on his iphone, and we were able to watch up until about 0:30 left, when the signal went out. We finished listening on the radio, first as Levance Fields made his clutch free throws, and then as Scotte Reynolds dashed the Panthers’ dream with his incredible drive to the basket.

Reynolds actually did not have one of his best games statistically in Villanova’s Elite 8 victory over Pitt. He finished with 15 points and shot 7-7 from the line, but only had 2 rebounds and 1 assist. Dwa yne Anderson stepped up huge and was the statistical MVP for Villanova. He scored 17 points, grabbed 6 rebounds, and had four steals.

And lost in the excitement over Scottie Reynolds’ buzzer beater was the superb play of Pitt’s trio of Levance Fields, Sam Young, and DeJuan Blair. Pitt is going home, but it certainly is not the fault of any of these three guys. Levance Fields made the clutch free throws as mentioned, and also dished out 6 assists against 0 turnovers. DeJuan Blair had another double-double, going for 20-10. And Sam Young was outstanding, scoring 28 points, snaring 7 rebounds, and dominating inside and outside.

Simply put, it was a great game played between two of the five best teams in America.

Unfortunately for Pitt, Villanova just appears to be one of those teams that has caught lightning in a bottle this March, as evidenced by the last second dash of Scottie Reynolds. Villanova is on an absolute roll, having beaten UCLA, Duke, and Pitt in three straight games. That is a pretty impressive list of victims.

Today, they will find out who they play next: North Carolina or Oklahoma. Villanova will be lower seed regardless, but it is going to be very hard to pick against them.

Filed Under: CBB, Featured Column Tagged With: 2009 Elite 8, 2009 NCAA Tournament, CBB, lotd, March Madness, Scottie Reynolds

Rush’s 29 Points Aren’t Enough: Bulls Defeat Indy, 112-106

March 28, 2009 By Josh Dhani Leave a Comment

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I can’t believe this happened. There is no hope for the Pacers now. After losing to the seventh seed Chicago Bulls, 112-106, the Pacers don’t seem to have a chance to make the playoffs and are now 30-43. How can they even make it?

But guess what? There is still hope! With the Pistons at 34-37 and holding the eighth seed, the Pacers can still possible beat out the Pistons. The Pistons have been struggling all year and the Pacers can just steal it. The Bucks don’t stand a chance for a spot in the playoffs.

With the NBA playoffs coming in less than a month, the Pacers are going to give more heart than they ever had to. The Pacers can get it. They are going to meet the Bulls again on March 31st, which is in three days. They can bounce back and beat them. The Pacers have this one shot, and they can’t fail.

This recap sickens me, but hey, I’m a Pacers writer and a die-hard fan. I have to do this recap, for the Pacers and for every Indiana Pacers fan in the world:

The Bulls capped their fourth straight win by beating the Pacers by a close score, 112-106. John Salmons had two, key, late three-pointers along with his 22 points scored. This is the Bulls biggest win streak since two years!

Ben Gordon helped out too with his 25 points. Tyrus Thomas pulled his effort into the mix with 18 points and eight rebounds. Star rookie, Derrick Rose, helped out the Bulls in his effort with 16 points.

The Pacers had a win, easily. After leading by more than 14 points and making the Bulls blow a 10-point lead, the Bulls still managed to hold on with Derrick Rose, John Salmons, and Tyrus Thomas doing the work.

With 3:20 left, Brandon Rush swooshed a jumper for a 102-99 lead. But it wasn’t over for the Bulls. Salmons answered back by making two straight three-pointers that made the Bulls have a comfortable lead.

With 1:29 left, the Bulls made another shot to make it look like a win: 107-102. It wasn’t over for the Pacers. They can’t possibly blow a lead like they had earlier. That’s when T.J. Ford came back with a layup. It was going to be a fight till the very end!

Even though the Pacers are 2-6 in their last eight games, there superstar, Danny Granger, has been consistent as he piled 32 points. As Granger was knocking down shots, Rush had a career-high 29 points scored. Rush, I think, is the X-Factor to the Pacers. He is, what I consider, the sixth man for Indy.

The Bulls had a very nice lead, 92-82. But after a Granger’s important three-pointer in the 13-2 run, the game was all changed as the Pacers led, 97-96. The Bulls blew a 10-point lead that could have made them destroy the Pacers.

Troy Murphy missed his second-straight game because of injury. If the Pacers had him, oh boy, the Pacers could have won. But the could have and should have and almost isn’t enough. You have to win it. Not almost. The Pacers just couldn’t hold on.

The Bulls couldn’t stop Granger and Rush. We all know nobody can stop Danny Granger, but Rush proved he is a very important player to the team. I just hope the Pacers get the playoff spot. I mean, you are talking about four years that they haven’t made it to the playoffs.

Watching the Pacers for so long…four grueling years of no playoff spot, I can’t take it. I don’t want to go to five. 2005 was the last time the Pacers made the playoffs. They blew a 2-1 lead in the series to the New Jersey Nets, but lost the series, 4-2.

I was heartbroken from Indy losing in that series. Now I can’t wait any longer, the Pacers need to make to the playoffs. Like I said, you are talking about four years. I can’t go to five. Hope is the answer. Granger is hope. T.J. Ford is hope. Troy Murphy is hope. Brandon Rush is hope. But most importantly, the Pacers are the hope.

The Pacers can surprise the NBA by making the playoffs. And that is why “amazing happens” in the NBA. It’s passion, pride, and the PACERS!

Filed Under: NBA Tagged With: Chicago Bulls, indiana pacers, NBA

Elite 8: North Carolina-Oklahoma Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

March 28, 2009 By Jerod Morris Leave a Comment

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Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets

MSF Bracket Challenge

Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads

Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers

History of Final Four in Indianapolis

Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

This post will analyze the North Carolina-Oklahoma Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

(You have my apologies in advance for the relative shortness of this Elite 8 preview. I’ve spent a good 2 to 3 hours on each of the others, but I’m under the gun after an oil change for my car took a little longer than expected and a huge birthday bash for my girlfriend’s grandfather is quickly impending. But I’ll try to go as in-depth as I can on this one.)

Both North Carolina and Oklahoma head into Sunday’s South Regional Final riding incredible waves of momentum.

North Carolina has their leader back in Ty Lawson, looking healthier by the minute, and he led them to victory over an overmatched Gonzaga team last night. Lawson scored 19 points and had 9 assists in the 98-77 North Carolina victory, while Tyler Hansbrough poured in 24 points on efficient 8-10 shooting and had 10 rebounds.

Likewise, Blake Griffin is showing no ill-effects from the injury that sidelined him towards the end of the regular season and Oklahoma is beginning to look like the team that many thought was going to be a #1 seed before slumping down the stretch. OU completely took apart Syracuse last night, winning 84-71, and earning the only victory I did not predict from the eight Sweet 16 games.

Tomorrow’s game should be a good one, and certainly more competitive than the Sweet 16 games for each. Here are the particulars:

North Carolina-Oklahoma South Regional Final – Elite 8 Preview and Prediction

StubHub: South Regional Final – Elite 8 Tickets
South Regional Breakdown
Date: Sunday, March 29
TV Time: 5:05 PM on CBS
Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
Point Spread: North Carolina -6.5
Over-Under: 164

Now let’s hop over to Game Predictor for a quick look at this one, using the same statistical categories we’ve used for each Sweet 16 game and each Elite 8 game:

Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.156 | Oklahoma – 1.125
Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.933 | Oklahoma – 0.956
Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.425 | Oklahoma – 1.118
Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.762 | Oklahoma – 0.675
Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.413 | Oklahoma – 0.395

And the prediction from Game Predictor:

Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 72.9% | Oklahoma – 27.1%
Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 74.5 | Oklahoma – 66.9
Odds to Cover Spread (OU +6.5): North Carolina – 61.4% | Oklahoma – 38.6%
Confidence Level: 4 Stars

I am not surprised by the Game Predictor analysis, nor do I disagree.

Oklahoma is a very good team, and Blake Griffin is obviously monster. The battle between he and Tyler Hansbrough is going to be a great one, and features 2 of perhaps the 5 five best college basketball players over the last half decade. Griffin most likely will not be a four-year player like Hansbrough has been, and has much more upside at the next level because of his athleticism, but Hansbrough is a wily old veteran who will come as close as anyone can to battling Griffin to a draw.

That leaves the rest of the two teams’ respective rosters to decide this game. And unless Griffin just dominates Hansbrough, I don’t see the rest of the Oklahoma team being able to do enough to keep pace with North Carolina.

Willie Warren is a fine player, especially for a freshman, and has a bright future, but Ty Lawson is 3-year veteran with tournament experience whose vast improvement from downtown has provided another weapon for a North Carolina offense that already had plenty. The Tar Heels average an astounding 90.5 points per game, utilizing the same attacking style of offense that was on display last night against Gonzaga. Oklahoma has shown that they can play in the 90s this season, but against the likes of Baylor and Texas Tech, neither of which, obviously, is the caliber of North Carolina.

For Oklahoma to compete, Warren will obviously need to be on his game from a scoring standpoint, and guys like Taylor Griffin, Tony Crocker, and Austin Johnson will need to defy their season averages and two or three of them will need to get into double figures. North Carolina has five guys who average in double figures on the season, and while Oklahoma displayed solid defense last night against Syracuse, they will have to step it up another notch or two to contain this potent Tar Heels offense.

Honestly, it looks to me like this Tar Heels team is on a mission that was going to be derailed by one thing: Ty Lawson’s injury. Considering his second half performance against LSU, and his efficiently explosive 27 minutes against Gonzaga, I think we can remove his injury from the list of concerns for the Tar Heels. Said Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt after last night’s loss to Carolina:

“If they play like that, they’re going to win the national championship,” Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt said. “They’d hit every shot, it seemed like. You can’t do anything on teams like that.”

I’m not ready to go quite that far yet, but it’s hard to argue with Hytvelt’s sentiment.

I predicted North Carolina to reach the title game, but to lose to UConn. And whether or not UConn ends up winning, I have a hard time believing this year’s national champion won’t come from one of the four Big East teams remaining. But North Carolina is the one team I think can compete with the Big East badasses that are still standing.

And I certainly think they can, and will, beat Oklahoma.

Blake Griffin will no doubt have a great game and give his all in trying to keep Oklahoma in it, but I think North Carolina pulls away in the second half and wins this one by 10 or 11 to cover the spread and move on to Detroit.

Who do you think will win the Elite Matchup between Oklahoma and UNC?

North Carolina

Oklahoma

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Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com

Filed Under: CBB, Featured Column Tagged With: 2009 NCAA Tournament, Blake Griffin, march madness. 2009 Elite 8, North Carolina Tar Heels, oklahoma sooners

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