Let’s list off a few things that your typical Cleveland Browns fans would rather do than be forced to live in a world in which Baltimore and Pittsburgh are playing in the AFC Championship game:
1 – Skydive without a parachute.
2 – Get into a sidewalk scuffle with Ray Lewis and his friends on Super Bowl weekend.
3 – Ride on the back of a motorcycle with Kellen Winslow or Ben Roethlisberger.
4 – Be an airborne football, thrown over a pit of boiling lava, heading towards the outstretched hands of Braylon Edwards, certain to melt in less than a second if you are dropped. 5 Hour Energy! Yeah! (Side note: How about 4 Quarter Concentration? Can someone make sure that Braylon gets signed up for that endorsement deal when it comes along?)
5 – Be strapped to a chair and forced to watch The Drive over and over again for 24 straight hours.
Okay, with the exception of that last one, I don’t think there would be much of a debate for any Browns fan. But unfortunately, our nightmare has come true and the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are in fact playing this weekend for the right to go to the Super Bowl.
Please excuse me while I locate some Pepto Bismol so I can finish this post.
Before we delve into a brief and nauseating analysis of the Steelers-Ravens AFC Championship game, here are the particulars you need to know:
AFC Championship Game
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Sunday, January 18, 2009
- TV: 6:30 ET on CBS
- Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
- Season Series: Pittsburgh Steelers 2 | Baltimore Ravens 0
- Point Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 (Courtey, Sports Betting Champ Review, as of Tuesday night. Follow the link for advice and current spreads if you are so inclined.)
- Over-Under: 34
Here are the key injuries to keep an eye on as the week goes along:
Baltimore Ravens Injuries (Updated 1/15):
- Terrell Suggs hurt his shoulder in the Tennessee game last weekend and missed the entire second half. He also missed practice on Wednesday — this coming on the heels of John Harbaugh sounding less than optimistic after MRI results were revealed Monday. Suggs will most likely be a game-time decision for Sunday.
- Samari Rolle limped off the field late in the 4th quarter and did not return. He did not practice Wednesday either
- Tood Heap, Ed Reed, Matt Stover, and Derrick Mason were all listed as questionable last week but played against Tennessee. These guys all missed practice Wednesday or practiced on a limited basis but are expected to play.
Pittsburgh Steelers Injuries (Updated 1/15):
- Ben Roethlisberger was the only person on the injury report before last week’s game, and he looked okay. So, despite being both a drama queen and a girl, unless Big Ben goes joyriding on his motorcycle, he’ll be good to go again this weekend.
- Troy Polamalu has been hindered by a calf injury he suffered last weekend. He will play this weekend, but could be less than 100%.
- Center Justin Hartwig missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury.
- The Steelers rested a handful of starters Wednesday to give them an extra day of rest leading up to this weekend’s bloodbath.
And now, three reasons why each team will win this weekend’s AFC Championship Game and move onto the Super Bowl:
Three Reasons Why the Pittsburgh Steelers Will Win:
1 – They have the better quarterback.
Ben Roethlisberger is battle tested, he has won a Super Bowl, and has proven that he put his team on his back to win a game when necessary. For all of his promise, and his obviously strong arm, Joe Flacco is still just a rookie playing in his first playoffs. I know that Flacco has beaten veterans like Chad Pennington and Kerry Collins thus far in the playoffs, but neither of them is as good in big
games and bad weather as Ben Roethlisberger. Big edge here for the Steelers that should not be understated.
2 – They have the better defense.
For all the talk about how great the Baltimore Ravens defense is — and it is great — the Steelers, at least statistically, had the best defense in the NFL this season. The Steelers finished 1st in scoring defense, as well as total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards allowed. Baltimore wins games with their defense, but what happens when they face a better defense? Considering they are 0-2 against Pittsburgh this year, I guess we know the answer.
3 – Willie Parker looked like Fast Willie Parker again last week.
Baltimore’s defense is outstanding and intimidating, and Ben Roethlisberger will have to keep the ball away from the weekly game-changer Ed Reed, but the Ravens are susceptible to speed. Chris Johnson showed it last week in the first half, and the Ravens may just be watching from home this weekend had Johnson not gotten hurt. If Willie Parker brings the speed and quickness he showed last week against San Diego after suffering through nagging injuries all year, the Steelers will have a solid answer for the Ravens D.
Three Reasons Why the Baltimore Ravens Will Win:
1 – They may be “destiny’s darling”.
It seems like we see it every year in the NFL: an unsung team gets hot late in the season, carries momentum into the playoffs, and the combines great play with fortunate bounces all the way to the Super Bowl. The Ravens could not have been more fortunate last week with Johnson getting hurt and the Titans turning the ball over multiple times in the red zone. In a game that will be hotly contested and probably very close, a bounce here or there could decide it. The Ravens seem to be getting the bounces right now.
2 – The Ravens big players make big plays in big games.
Maybe it’s a “U” thing, as we invoke the immortal words of Santana Moss. We know about all of the big plays made by former Miami Hurricane Ed Reed. And we know about the passion and intensity that Ray Lewis leads with in big moments. And don’t forget about Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain in the backfield. They iced away the Ravens’ late season win over the Cowboys with two 70+ yard TD runs. And McClain had a long TD run late against Miami. Even Joe Flacco came up with a few key big plays against the Titans.
3 – The Steelers have already beaten the Ravens twice.
It is an age-old sports cliche that it is incredibly difficult to beat a team, especially a good team, three times in a row. Ben Roethlisberger even said as much yesterday when asked about this weekend’s game. The Ravens are an intense team led by their defense and opportunistic play-makers. Are the Steelers really that much better than the Ravens that they could go 3-0 against them this season?
I say yes they are.
And the first reason is because Reason #3 directly above is bunk. Doug at Pro-Football-Reference provides a great breakdown of the myth that it is “impossible” to beat a team three times in one season:
Since the merger, there have been 17 instances of a team trying to beat another team thrice in a season. In 11 of those cases, the team succeeded.
Doug’s analysis was done in January of last year, so it does not take into account whatever happened in last year’s playoffs. Still, the numbers don’t lie. An 11-6 record for teams looking to complete a three-game sweep in the playoffs, and that record improved to 9-3 at home. The Steelers are at home, which is even more reason why the conventional wisdom and cliches do not apply.
Plus, Reason #1 cited above why the Ravens will win is not all that compelling. The Ravens were lucky to get out of Tennessee with the victory. Sure, ma
ybe they will get lucky again. Against a team as solid as the Steelers though, with the #1 defense in the NFL, I would not feel too confident relying on being “destiny’s darling.”
So, as much as it pains to say this, I think that the Steelers will wi–
Screw that. I don’t feel like actually making the affirmative statement. Let’s just say that the Ravens will lose, take some solace in the fact that Ray Lewis and the boys will go home crying, and try not to think about the Steelers fans waving their damn towels in joy.
Steelers-Ravens Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 16 | Baltimore Ravens 12
What do you think?
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About Jerod Morris
