Earlier this week former Minnesota Twin great, Bert Blyleven was rejected entrance into the Hall of Fame for the 12th time. Appearing on Mike and Mike in the morning, he was nothing short of emotional about being denied the spot. After being asked about how he was doing, Bert quickly responded:
“I feel like crapâ€
He went on to state that he pitched nearly 5,000 innings, 60 shutouts, and was 13th all time on the strikeout list. Critics will say that he wasn’t a “Hall of Fame type pitcher†when he played or that he was never all that dominant. But how then were his numbers so great?
Bert went on to criticize the process of which Hall of Fame members are elected, sparking many debates in sports media this week. Should voters continue to be sports writers from across the nation? Should voters consist of only former players or even Hall of Fame members themselves? Who can we most objectively tell who should be in or out of the Hall of Fame?
This got me thinking. Is there a way we can most objectively tell who should be in or out of the Hall of Fame, at least statistically?
Enter the Hall of Fame Index
The Hall of Fame Index ranks how a HOF candidate stacks up against current HOF members using statistical analysis. The goal is to objectively be able to quantify a Hall of Fame candidate’s legitimacy. By obtaining a comprehensive list of career statistics of all current hall of fame members, we can calculate which percentile a candidate falls for each statistical category.
For example: HOF Candidate Bert Blyleven ranks very high for the statistical category of K, but very poorly on H relative to other hall of fame members. If he is the best at K, he will receive a score of 100%. If he is the worst at K, he will receive a score of 0%. Each statistic in the index is a percentile rank of the candidate among current Hall of Fame members.
After running the calculations Bert finished with a 60% Hall of Fame Index meaning that among all represented statistical categories in the Hall of Fame Index, he is in the 60th percentile among current Hall of Fame members, proving that statistically he has a very strong case to be placed in the Hall.
HOF Index - Pitching
| Name | HOF Index | W | K | ERA | SV | SHO | CG | H | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bert Blyleven | 60% | 67% | 97% | 51% | 0% | 88% | 37% | 17% | 7% |
There are other factors involved when determining who’s in and who’s out of the hall of fame, but statistically; it’s difficult to deny Bert Blyleven.
Other recent additions to the Hall include Rickey Henderson, who received a 60% HOF Index score, and Jim Rice, who received a 59% HOF Score.
HOF Index - Batting
| Name | HOF Index | SB | 2B | 3B | H | HR | AVG | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickey Henderson | 60% | 100% | 81% | 22% | 88% | 75% | 22% | 57% |
| Jim Rice | 59% | 20% | 44% | 38% | 57% | 83% | 46% | 75% |
Again, this tool is limited purely to statistical analysis and does not take into factor other variables such as postseason play, accolades, off the field activities and other various accomplishments not statistically related to a candidate’s Hall of Fame legitimacy. It is simply a tool to show how they rank statistically among members of the Hall of Fame
For details on the HOF Index calculation read below:
The HOF Index is an average of percentiles weighted by importance of statistical category.
The Hall of Fame Index for Pitching is derived by this formula: W+K+ERA + ((H+HR+SHO+CG+SV)/5). Wins, strikeouts, and era are weighted highest as they are commonly the most frequent attribute related to the performance of a pitcher. The other statistics are weighted lower for a variety of reasons including the duplication of statistics and level of importance of category.
The Hall of Fame Index for Batting is derived by this formula: H + HR + AVG + RBI + ((SB+2B+3B)/3). Doubles and triples are weighted lower as they have some value duplicated by the category H, but primarily because they are generally not regarded quite as highly as the H and HR statistics. Likewise, stolen bases are weighted lower as they are not as of an important category as H, HR, AVG, or RBI’s.
These calculations result in nearly every present and future HOF member’s rank relative to every other HOF member. Essentially, if a candidate has a HOF Index of 50%, half of the current HOF is better statistically and half of the current HOF is worse statistically based on the calculation. A candidate would have a strong argument if they had over a 50% HOF Index score.
Full Hall of Fame member data shown below:
(Editor’s Note: We had some trouble importing the table from MS Word. Things started exploding and blowing up all over the place. So, to see Tyler’s detailed breakdown of every Hall of Famer according to the Hall of Fame index, download and view a PDF of the Word document right here.)
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