The wake-up from the Cubs convention is now upon us as we were able to party over the weekend, now we have to see what type of damage has been done and see how bad the hangover is.
The expectations of a team coming off a 97-win season, team MVP being your rookie catcher, and a giant payroll are typically reserved for realists becoming idealists all becoming optimists. Following the Cubs, optimism leads to heartbreak and after an 0-6 stretch in the post-season, there is more pessimism than anything else.
The NL Central is a miserable division as Milwaukee has regressed from a playoff contender with a legit #1 starter in Sabathia and an oft-injured but extremely effective Sheets (as of now), and STL won 86 games in what was likely LaRussa’s best coaching job in his HoF career only to be stalled by a GM/ownership unwilling to make a big splash. Pittsburgh and Cincy are rebuilding and Houston, even with two of the 3 best players in the division in Oswalt and Berkman, are stuck in mediocrity given Houston’s inability to develop from within as well overspending again on veteran FAs.
The pieces are still in place for the Cubs to win the division for a 3rd straight year but from winning, the huge expectations and bitterness are magnified when disappointment occurs. The mindset of a Cubs fan has changed and this is a positive effect of success, although I disagree with fans booing, throwing garbage on the field, racial slurs, and all the other stuff we’ve seen since 2003.
Realistically, the Cubs have the 2nd most talented team in the NL behind the Phillies, despite an off-season that is dependent on another team that will determine whether or not the Cubs will improve or regress into next year because of inflated and back-loaded contracts that have strangled the ‘09 roster.
Players I expect to improve:
Fukudome: (I expect him to hit around .270/.360/.440) 15HRs 35DBs which will suffice in a platoon role in CF.
Hart: I doubt he will end up as the #5 starter as there are several more qualified and talented pitchers ahead of him, but he was awful last year and if they don’t yo-yo him, he can carve out a role as in long-relief and save the back-end of the pen from additional usage.
Gaudin: Another reliever like Hart that will improve from his Cubs’ numbers of last year. One of Lou’s greatest strengths is maximizing bullpen production and given the Cubs’ marginal talent in half of the pen, it will be tested again. Like Hart, they both have the command that will allow them to avoid st
aying in Lou’s doghouse for any significant period of time
Zambrano: I expect a slight improvement and obviously more IP given that he remains healthy. I doubt we’ll see the same production of 3 years ago when he was a legit #1, and given the wear and tear at such a young age, he should be able to be around 15-16 game winner, 190-200 IP, 3.7ERA. There is a great concern from me that he doesn’t have the stuff to miss as many bats as he once did and maybe would be better off going the Webb or Lowe type of route and revert back to being mainly a heavy FB/sinker type of pitcher first with the breaking ball/splitter as something to keep hitters off-balance rather than an out-pitch.
Tomorrow, I will address which players I feel are likely to repeat what they did in 2008 as well as those who are likely to regress.
P.S. I have more likely to regress next year than improve.
