This is my projection as to how the Cubs bullpen will look at the start of this year:
Closer: Carlos Marmol
Setup: Kevin Gregg
7th inning reliever: Luis Vizcaino/Jeff Samardzija
Situational lefty: Neal Cotts
Additional relievers: Angel Guzman, Garrett Olson, Mike Wuertz
Beyond the bench, this is the 2nd weakest sector of the team. The pen is average compared to the other 31 teams and well below average compared to the likely 8 we will see in the 2009 playoffs.
Going from Kerry Wood to Kevin Gregg will be the largest downgrade this team will see from a position by position basis.
Kevin Gregg-In Gregg’s two years as a closer he has allowed 113 baserunners in 84.1IP in save situations for a WHIP of 1.34, which is well above the league average for a closer. His strikeout rate declined from 9.32 per 9 innings pitched to 7.60 per 9 in 2008. He has been a declining pitcher in the second half of each of the last two years, including last year. This led to him being demoted from his closer’s role. He doesn’t have the dominating stuff that you would typically covet in either a setup man or a closer. For me, Gregg is an ideal 7th inning type of reliever in more controlled, high-leverage situations where he can productive when he is on and, more importantly, can be pulled earlier when he is off.
Carlos Marmol-Should be in the setup role where it is less defined and is more likely to be in a more critical
situation earlier in the game. I expect him to win the closer role in Mesa simply because I think the team and, more importantly, Piniella will be disappointed with Gregg in both his command and stuff. Not having the flexibility to use Marmol in other situations beyond the final 3 outs will likely hurt the Cubs more than any move this off-season.
Jeff Samardzija-I would like to see him off going to Iowa to work on his slider and condition himself again as a future starter where he has the potential to be a #2 starter. He has a plus fastball, a splitter that has shown flashes of becoming an out pitch, limited signs of an average slider, and suspect command. I think Samardzija will end up with the Cubs as the 7th inning guy due to the lack of quality arms in the pen.
Luis Vizcaino-Brought over for Jason Marquis from the Rockies, he will likely end up as the favorite for the 7th inning given his experience and previous decent results. A notorious slow starter, I expect him be demoted to a similar role as we have seen from Wuertz over the last two years.
Neal Cotts- One of the most misused pitchers in the game, like how Dusty Baker would use Mike Remlinger as members of the Chicago Cubs. Cotts has two things that go for him: 1) An extremely deceptive fastball that sneaks up on hitters; 2) A change-up that is all but forgotten which helped rise quickly through the White Sox system. Cotts doesn’t have a slider or curve ball that will retire LH’ed bats consistently, so he should not be used as the situational lefty; but, without any other viable options (unless one of the NRIs makes it or Olson steps up and throws strikes), I don’t see anyone that could fill this role.
Angel Guzman- I will conclude with Guzman given that he is once again my sleeper to become a very positive contributor to the pen. With plus FB, plus curve ball, and solid command, I expect him to take that next step and stick on the 25 man roster.
Watch out for Jose Ascanio as well. If the Cubs don’t send him back to Iowa to become a starter which will depend on Samardzija, Ascanio will surprise many with how well and how live that arm really is. Given how mediocre I expect this bullpen to be, two arms they didn’t count on producing will go quite a ways to make it become a positive.
My prediction is that Rafael Soriano of the Atlanta Braves will be the Cubs closer in July.
