NFL Playoffs: AFC Playoff Picture and Scenarios
Wild Card weekend is now over. Follow the link for the Divisional Round Playoff Matchups, Announcer Pairings, and Point Spreads.
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There is one week of football left to be played in the 2008 NFL regular season. Let’s take a quick peek at the AFC playoff picture, along with a look at the potential scenarios that could play out in Week 17.
(Update: If you’re interested, I just posted the NFC Playoff Picture and Scenarios.)
First, here is the current AFC playoff picture, if the season ended today:
The first round byes would go to the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers, who are locked into the #1 and #2 seeds, regardless of what happens in Week 17.
The Miami Dolphins (10-5) would be the #3 seed and host a first round playoff matchup against the #6 seed Baltimore Ravens (10-5). Interestingly, Baltimore is the only team that the Dolphins beat last year during their 1-15 campaign.
The Denver Broncos (8-7) would be the #3 seed and host a first round playoff game against the #5 seed Indianapolis Colts (11-4), who have already clinched a playoff spot.
Amazingly, the two worse teams, the Dolphins and Broncos, would be hosting playoff games by virtue of winning their divisions.
Okay, so that’s the picture as of right now. However, the New England Patriots (10-5), the New York Jets (9-6), and the San Diego Chargers (7-8) are still alive. Remember, only the Titans, Steelers, and Colts have clinched playoff spots.
The San Diego Chargers play the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football in Week 17 in San Diego. If the Chargers win, they capture the AFC West crown and the #4 seed. If the Broncos win, they capture the AFC West crown and the #4 seed. Easy enough, right?
In the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets square off in Week 17, while the New England Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills. If the Dolphins beat the Jets, they win the AFC East and are in the playoffs. If the Jets beat the Dolphins, and the Patriots lose to the Bills, the Jets capture the AFC East and are in the playoffs. If the Jets beat the Dolphins and the Patriots beat the Bills, the Patriots win the AFC East and are in the playoffs.
If the Baltimore Ravens beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17, they clinch a wild card berth regardless of what else happens. If the Baltimore Ravens lost in the Week 17, they would still make the playoffs (for certain) with a Dolphins win over the Jets and a Patriots loss to the Bills. Beyond that, all kinds of tie-breaker stuff gets involved for who gets the final AFC wild card spot.
Here are the potential scenarios and, to the best of my knowledge, the outcomes:
AFC Playoff Scenario #1:
If the Jets beat the Dolphins, the Patriots beat the Bills, and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville, all four team are 10-6. The Patriots would win the AFC East and be in. The Jets and Dolphins would be determined by the first division tie-breaker, head-to-head, and the Jets would win out because they beat the Dolphins twice. Between the Jets and Ravens in this scenario, the Jets would advance because the second tie-breaker to determine the wild card between non-division opponents in conference record. The Jets would be 8-4, while Baltimore would be 7-5.
For the record, here is a breakdown of the NFL tiebreaker rules.
AFC Playoff Scenario #2:
(edited from my original post, in which I had this wrong.)
If the Dolphins beat the Jets, the Patriots beat the Bills, and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville, then the Dolphins win the AFC East and the Patriots are 11-5, while Baltimore is 10-6. So the Patriots would win the wild cared.
AFC Playoff Scenario #3:
If the Jets beat the Dolphins, the Patriots lose to the Bills, and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville, then the Jets are AFC East champs and the Dolphins, Patriots, and Ravens are all 10-6. Miami and New England would match up in the division tie-breaker and it would go all the way to third tie-breaker of W/L record in common games. Whoever won that tie-breaker would then face off against Baltimore in the non-division-opponent tie-breaker rules. Miami and Baltimore would tie in conference record, so it would move onto winning % against common opponents. Baltimore would beat New England in terms of conference record.
My goodness, what a headache. Glad I edited this, and thank you to Epic Fall Guy in the comments below for pointing out that I had erred in my first attempt. I do not guarantee any of these analyses…but I think what I’ve said above is how it will go.
And again, Baltimore can make all of this very easy simply by beating a terrible Jacksonville team. Of course, this is the NFL, so does anyone really expect that to happen?
After the Bears-Packers game on Monday night, I’ll break down the NFC playoff picture and the scenarios for Week 17.
Tags: afc, NFL, nfl playoffs
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This was so helpful. J E T S Jets Jets Jets. Dream and Believe
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Your tie breaking procedures are completely wrong.
It doesn’t matter what Baltimore and NE’s division records are to break the tie between the two, because they’re in separate divisions. I’d suggest you re-read the tie breaker sheet you linked to.
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JRod Reply:
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:41 am
@Epic fail guy, Well crap. I stand corrected. You are completely right and I did not read carefully enough. I edited the post above to reflect what, I think, is a more accurate anlysis.
For the record, here is a breakdown of the tiebreaking rules, as linked above. And thank you Epic fall guy for pointing out my egregious error in how I explained this.
If you see any more errors, let me know. I redid the post quickly before work.
NFL Tiebreaker Rules:
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.
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[...] NFC North Playoff Picture Tightens as Pat and Kevin Williams Suspended for Vikings 2 December 2008 330 views by M.J. LaughlincloseAuthor: M.J. Laughlin Name: Mark John LaughlinEmail: markjlaughlin@gmail.comSite: About: See Authors Posts (7) 6 Comments Email This Post Print This Post This is an older post and does not reflect the most recent updates to the NFC playoff picture. After tonight’s Bears-Packers game we will update the NFC playoff picture and scenarios. In the meantime, you can check out the AFC playoff picture here. [...]
still wrong…
Team Sit 1 Sit 2 Sit 3 Result
MIA WIN IN
MIA TIE NE TIE IN
MIA TIE NE LOSE IN
MIA TIE BALT LOSE IN
BALT WIN IN
BALT LOSE NE LOSE IN
BALT TIE NE TIE IN
NE WIN BALT LOSE IN
NE WIN MIA LOSE IN
NE WIN BALT TIE IN
NE WIN MIA TIE IN
NE TIE MIA LOSE IN
NE TIE BALT LOSE IN
NYJ WIN NE LOSE IN
NYJ WIN NE WIN BALT LOSE IN
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JRod Reply:
December 22nd, 2008 at 2:21 pm
@PJ, I’ll take your word for it. Thanks for posting.
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Miami and NE have the same percentage in common games (7-1 outside of division, 2-2 in division, total 9-3). So the next tiebreaker is conference record, where Pats are 6-6, Dolphins are 7-5.
Miami and Baltimore don’t move anywhere – Baltimore beat them this year so they take the tiebreaker from them in any scenario.
A Pats loss or a Ravens win and the Ravens are in. The Dolphins-Jets game is irrelevant to them (except in terms of who they play in the wild-card round).
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[...] Sunday night, I posted the AFC Playoff Picture and Scenarios as we head into Week 17, the final week of the regular [...]
Who wins the North if the Bears and the Vikings both lose their week 17 game?
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JRod Reply:
December 27th, 2008 at 10:44 am
@Jeff, thanks for the question.
If they both lose, the Vikings win the NFC North.
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Jeff Reply:
December 27th, 2008 at 10:58 am
@JRod, won’t they both have identical division and conference records if they both lose? Plus they split their games this year. Just wondering. Thanks JRod.
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JRod Reply:
December 27th, 2008 at 11:51 am
@Jeff, I’m not sure which tie-breaker gives the edge to the Vikings, but I know that if the Bears lose, the Vikes win the NFC North no matter what else happens.
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