Updated BCS Standings and BCS Projections
Championship Saturday has ended, which means the BCS projections are pretty much set. Check out the updated BCS projections.
I was trying to figure out in my own mind what all of the BCS scenarios are and who will be playing who. So, while I go through the process of figuring it out, I’ll just type a post and share my knowledge.
First, here are the updated BCS Standings going into the conference championship games:
BCS Standings
| Team | Harris | USA | Comp. | BCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | 1 | 3 | .9713 |
| Oklahoma | 4 | 2 | 1 | .9351 |
| Texas | 3 | 3 | 2 | .9223 |
| Florida | 2 | 4 | 6 | .8851 |
| USC | 5 | 5 | 8 | .8076 |
| Utah | 6 | 7 | 5 | .7844 |
| Texas Tech | 7 | 8 | 4 | .7805 |
| Penn State | 6 | 6 | 9 | .7373 |
| Boise State | 9 | 9 | 7 | .7034 |
| Ohio State | 10 | 10 | 11 | .6340 |
| TCU | 12 | 11 | 10 | .5633 |
| Ball State | 11 | 13 | 12 | .5306 |
And now, the BCS schedule, with tie-ins:
January 1, 2009 – Rose Bowl presented by Citi in Pasadena, CA | Big Ten Champ vs Pac 10 Champ
January 1, 2009 – FedEx Orange Bowl in Miami, FL | ACC Champ vs BCS At-Large
January 2, 2009 – AllState Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA | SEC Champ vs BCS At-Large
January 5, 2009 – Tostitos Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ | Big 12 Champ vs BCS At-Large
January 8, 2009 – FexEx BCS National Championship Game in Miami, FL | BCS #1 v BCS #2
Let’s take a look at some of the scenarios:
The winner of the SEC title game between Florida and Alabama will almost assuredly play in the BCS Title game against either Oklahoma (if they win the Big 12 Title game) or Texas (if Oklahoma should lose to Missouri in the Big 12 Title game).
I don’t really see any way that the BCS National Championship game is not the SEC winner versus either Oklahoma or Texas. And that is how it should be.
With the way Oklahoma is playing right now, and considering that Missouri just lost to Kansas, I think it is a safe assumption that Oklahoma will win the Big 12. (Well, at least as safe as any assumption can be in college football. And Missouri knows what that’s like in the Big 12 title game.)
If Oklahoma wins, the BCS will most likely look like this:
BCS National Championship: Oklahoma versus Alabama/Florida winner
Fiesta Bowl: At-Large vs At-Large
Sugar Bowl: At-Large vs At-Large
Orange Bowl: Boston College/Virginia Tech winner in ACC title game vs At-Large
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs USC
Because the Fiesta Bowl is played closest to the National Championship game, it gets the first pick of replacement team (since the Big 12 champ would be in the BCS National Championship game). I am thinking that the Fiesta Bowl would take Texas and then match them up with Penn State. Those traveling fan bases talk baby!
The Sugar Bowl would then pick next, and they would take the SEC #2, whoever loses between Alabama and Florida…
and I’m spent. I just spent the last fifteen minutes toggling back and forth between writing this and trying to figure out all of the different rules for how the BCS teams are chosen, and my head hurts. I am officially calling this Reason #4,672 why we need a playoff!
How about this? Take the top 8 damn teams (Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, USC, Utah, Texas Tech, Penn State) and let them duke it out in an Elite 8 tourney for the champion. Want to cry because the ACC isn’t represented? Too bad. The highest rated ACC team is Georgia Tech and they are 15th. If your conference sucks so bad that you don’t have a team in the top 8, then you’re screwed. Or if you need to appease the ACC, then give them an automatic tie-in for the conference champ and bump out the lowest rated team that didn’t win its conference. In this case, Texas Tech would be gone.
Now we would have (if the standings stayed as they are now):
1 Alabama/Florida vs 8 ACC Champion
2 Oklahoma/Texas vs 7 Penn State
3 Oklahoma/Texas vs 6 Utah
4 Alabama/Florida vs 5 USC
You would need two more games so add in the Cotton Bowl and another bowl and then the teams can decide it on the field. Why is it so hard to make this happen??? I just don’t get it.
For anyone who came to this post looking for a detailed explanation of the potential BCS scenarios, you have my apologies. If you’d like to figure it out on your own, here you go:
Good luck.
I’m glad I went through this little exercise. The BCS National Championship game will be the champions of the two best conferences, so that is good. And the Rose Bowl will be the Big 10 champ and the Pac 10 champ, so that is good.
Still, try telling me that an 8-game playoff wouldn’t be infinitely more exciting. I just don’t see any reasonable argument to the contrary.
Loading ...F$&k the BCS!
Tags: BCS, Bowl Projections, College Football, Rose Bowl
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A couple things. I think part of the agreement is that the Rose Bowl is guaranteed the Big 10 winner vs. the Pac-10 winner as long as neither is in the BCS title game. So even though the Fiesta gets first dibs on an at-large team, they can’t pluck Penn State or USC.
Even though Florida is a bit behind Texas in the BCS standings pointswise, if Florida beats Alabama, the Gators will shoot up quite a bit. Texas will be idle and many of the people who voted for them, will likely side with Oklahoma, thus bringing Texas closer to Florida. Then Florida’s SOS would spike with a neutral field win over the No. 1 team. And even Florida will cop a few more first-place votes as well.
I see Florida (SEC), Oklahoma (Big 12) and Virginia Tech (ACC) winning their respective conference title games this week. That leaves us with:
BCS National title game: Florida vs. Oklahoma.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah
Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Ohio State
I wonder if the Sugar Bowl committee could snag Texas from the Fiesta? Last year the Sugar was stuck with Hawaii and I bet they don’t want another repeat of last year. Utah is good, but Alabama is much bigger, faster, stronger.
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Chad, nice analysis. Thanks for picking up where I left off. I couldn’t bring myself to write anything serious about the BCS any longer.
I think it will be Florida and Oklahoma too. And OSU very well could make it, because you know any BCS bowl would be itching to grab them and their rapid fan base over one of the smaller schools.
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Boise State might have the undefeated record and get some of the senimental vote, but at the end of the day, Ohio State will bring in way more cash.
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