Monday Night Football Preview: Packers v Saints

Last week on Monday Night Football, the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills played an ugly game that was nonetheless exciting. The Browns ended up winning after the Bills missed a 47-yard field goal in the waning seconds of the game.

This week, at least on paper, we should have another thrilling matchup on Monday Night Football; and hopefully the level of play is a little bit more aesthetically pleasing.

Tomorrow night, November 24, the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints take the field in New Orleans. The Packers enter the game at 5-5, and 1/2 game behind both the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North standings. The Bears and Vikings were both victorious on Sunday. The Saints enter the game at 5-5 as well, but in a much more precarious position in the NFC South. They are in last place, behind Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta.

As with most games during late November and December, both teams look at this game as a virtual must-win.

Before we get into who will win, let’s take a look at the injury report:

The biggest injury news in this game is that Saints RB Reggie Bush will not play. Reggie Bush continues to suffer from an injured knee. Sean Payton and the Saints had hoped Bush could give it a go, but announced early on Sunday that he would not play. (Luckily for fantasy owners of Reggie Bush, like myself, the Saints announced this twenty minutes before the early games on Sunday started. I was able to quickly put Le’Ron McLain in my lineup and enjoy his solid day against the Eagles.) Aaron Glenn and Mike Karney are also out for the Saints. For the Packers, linebacker Nick Barnett is out. A whole slew of other players are questionable, but none are starters or key players.

Now let’s get your impression before I give you mine:

My first impression is that I don’t like this matchup for the Saints.

I think if people were asked who has the better offense, the majority would answer the Saints. And with a healthy Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and Jeremy Shockey, that could be true. But the truth of the matter is that the Packers have actually scored more points this season: 274-266. This, despite the fact that Brett Favre is playing in New York and running back Ryan Grant is averaging less than 4 yards per carry.

Still, the Packers have the better running game. Without Reggie Bush, the Saints have been relying on Deuce McAllister and Pierre Thomas to provide balance to the passing attack led by Drew Brees. Unfortunately for New Orleans, McAllister is only averaging 3.7 yards per attempt. Pierre Thomas, however, has been running well of late. He is gaining 4.4 yards per carry and should continue to get carries even when Reggie Bush returns.

The Saints are also trying to assimilate Marques Colston back into their offense. Colston was injured for a while, but it has not stopped Drew Brees from amassing a ridiculous 3,251 passing yards through 10 games. Brees has also thrown for 18 touchdowns, but has been picked off 11 times. With ball-hawking cornerbacks like Charles Woodson on the other side of the ball, Drew Brees will have to be careful not to throw to the other team.

Amazingly, Aaron Rodgers (or is it Scott Stapp from Creed?) is having almost as strong a season as Drew Brees — if not better. He does not have the yardage and touchdowns of Brees, but Rodgers has been more efficient. He has thrown only 6 INTs and has a passer rating of 94.5, nearly equal to Brees’ 95.4. Aaron Rodgers has developed a great rapport with wide receiver Greg Jennings, who is emerging as one of the most electric deep threats in the NFL. Greg Jennings has caught 48 passes, which is less then 5 per game, but he is averaging an eye-popping 18.0 yards per catch and 5 TDs. With New Orleans possessing a secondary that is more like a sieve than a last line of defense, I would expect Greg Jennings to get behind the secondary for at least one or two big plays.

The Saints are 4-1 at home this year, but three of those wins were against struggling teams such as the Raiders, 49ers, and Chargers. They did hand Tampa Bay one of their few losses this year, but the Saints’ other W was against the Chiefs. The Saints have not fared well against teams with records of .500 or above, dropping games to Minnesota, Washington, Carolina, Atlanta, and Denver.

I would say that the Packers are much closer to the second group of teams — the good ones — than the list of patsies that the Saints have beaten. And coming off last week’s dismantling of the Bears, this Packers team seems to be hitting their stride.

I am an unabashed Drew Brees fan, have him in nearly every fantasy league, and remain pissed off that the Miami Dolphins did not draft him back when he came out of Purdue. Drew Brees is an outstanding QB and I think he will play well on Monday night.

Still, I doubt it will be enough to win.

The Packers have their own solid QB to go along with a better running game, a more consistent receiving corps, and a much better defense. Without Reggie Bush to add his dynamic play-making ability to the Saints attack, and keep the Packers D off balance, I think the Saints will put up a valiant fight but ultimately fall short.

Prediction: Packers 38 | Saints 31

(Editor’s Note: For purposes of full disclosure, JRod also picked Texas Tech to beat Oklahoma, thought the Browns would go 9-7 and make the playoffs, and predicted the Chicago White Sox would beat the Tampa Bay Rays in this year’s playoffs. So basically, if you are thinking of wagering money on this game, put it confidently on the Saints. The Packers have now been given the official JRod Kiss of Death.)

Tags: aaron rodgers, Drew Brees, football, Monday Night Football, NFL, reggie bush

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