Game of the Week: Texas Tech-Oklahoma Preview and Prediction

With apologies to KVB, the college football Game of the Week is in Norman, Oklahoma, not in Columbus, Ohio. True, the Michigan-Ohio State game has more history and is a bigger game on a yearly basis; but the battle for Big 12 supremacy in Norman this weekend could very well be the Game of the Year when all is said and done.

Texas Tech comes into Saturday night’s matchup (at 8:00 ET on ABC) with an 10-0 record, a #2 ranking, and off of back-to-back wins over top 10 teams Texas and Oklahoma State. The Oklahoma Sooners will defend their home turf Saturday with a 9-1 record, a #5 ranking, and a loss to Texas (in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl) as their only blemish of the year.

Both teams have offenses that are pretty much ridiculous. Texas Tech, powered by the lethal combo of Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, is #1 in the nation in passing yards per game with 438.6, and they are #2 in overall offense. Oklahoma is led by superstar sophomore Sam Bradford and is #4 in total offense and #3 in passing offense. Holy crap I am getting excited for this game.

If the over-under is anything less 100, take the over.

What are the keys to victory? I’ll run down a few in the preview and then offer up a prediction. But first, chime in with your prediction:

Texas Tech-Oklahoma Preview: Keys to victory for Texas Tech

1 — Emotion and Mindset

For two straight weeks, Texas Tech has played “the biggest game in school history” and they have won both of them. The Texas game was a knock down, drag out fight that they were able to pull out by the skin of their teeth with an incredible touchdown pass from Graham Harrell to Michael Crabtree in the final seconds. It is the kind of play a team makes when they are that season’s “darling of destiny.” (Case in point: think about Tennessee in 1998 and how they won a game on a phantom pass interference and another when Clint Stoerner fumbled while attempting to run out the clock. Some teams just get all the breaks for an entire season.)

Texas Tech needed no breaks against Oklahoma State, however. They thoroughly whooped the Cowboys, who failed to get Dez Bryant enough play-making opportunities. Now, the Red Raiders are 10-0 and have spent a two weeks since the Texas win listening to everyone tell them they are the greatest thing since sliced bread. Not to mention, they have played with a very high level of emotion and concentration for two consecutive weeks.

Can they maintain it? That is the key question. Norman will be a hostile environment and Oklahoma usually jumps out to early leads with their high-octane offense. If Texas Tech gets down, they can’t panic or lose their emotion. Emotion and mindset have been a strength of Texas Tech all year. It needs to be again.

2 — Pressure Sam Bradford to force turnovers

In Oklahoma’s lone loss this year, Sam Bradford was picked off twice by Texas. He has only been picked off four times in their other 9 games. Texas fell behind early but was able to come back because of timely special teams plays and turnovers. Sam Bradford has been spectacular through nearly two seasons, but has shown a propensity to lose his poise late in games or when Oklahoma is down. Texas Tech needs to capitalize on this and get to him every chance they can.

3 — Establish a ground game

Texas Tech is known for its aerial assault, but Texas won because they stayed committed to running the football. Colt McCoy threw 35 passes and as a team they ran it 35 times. Texas Tech doesn’t need such an even split (McCoy ran it 14 times himself, while Harrell won’t do that), but they do need to try to control the ball, especially late if they have a lead. The top two running backs for Texas Tech average over 5 yards per carry. The Red Raiders will rack up points behind the superb ability of Graham Harrell in leading the spread, but they can salt away a victory by pounding a struggling Oklahoma defense with the run.

Texas Tech-Oklahoma Preview: Keys to victory for Oklahoma

1 — Special frieking teams

Oklahoma has been plagued by special teams breakdowns all season long. They had Texas dead to rights with a 14-3 lead and all of the momentum before Jordan Shipley gave the Longhorns a glimmer of hope with a kickoff return for a TD. Oklahoma scored on the very next possession and could have been up 21-3. Instead, it was 21-10, and Texas got it back to 21-20 before the half. The Sooners dominated the first half in every way, but led by only one at the break. Take away the special teams failure and the game could have had a drastically different outcome.

Oklahoma almost always jumps out and has their offense clicking early. Texas Tech’s D has played well this year, but the offenses in the Big 12 this year, and Oklahoma specifically, have proven they could rack up points with 15 defenders on the field. If Oklahoma gets up early at home, they need to maintain their lead. If a special teams play can spark a struggling Red Raiders team, it could be deja vu all over again for Oklahoma in a big game at home.

2 — Sam Bradford needs to be better than Graham Harrell

In each of the key Big 12 games this year, the quarterback who has played better has been on the winning team. Colt McCoy outdueled Sam Bradford in Dallas, and Texas won. Graham Harrell made one more play that Colt McCoy in Lubbock, and Texas Tech won. Graham Harrell was better than Zack Robinson, Colt McCoy was better than Chase Daniel, and so on it goes.

Sam Bradford’s statistics are incredible. But the one whisper I continuously hear from people who watch the Big 12 closely is that Sam Bradford, while he has the prototypical body and arm of an NFL quarterback, lacks the moxie and winning ability of Colt McCoy and Graham Harrell. This game will be Sam Bradford’s chance to prove that he is a legit Heisman contender and that he can lead a team to victory in a hue game. He failed against Texas, but Oklahoma needs him to be better than the de facto Heisman front-runner right now, Graham Harrell. And part of Sam Bradford being able to do this will be the ability of his offensive line to protect him adequately.

3 — Bob Stoops needs to be better than Mike Leach

Last week, Texas Tech kicked the snot out of Oklahoma State because Mike Leach had his team mentally, emotionally, and tactically more prepared to play than Mike Gundy did. Oklahoma State inexplicably did not use Dez Bryant correctly, and their defense had no answer for Texas Tech. The defense part is not so egregious, because no defense can stop Texas Tech.

But no defense has been able to stop Oklahoma either. And while Texas Tech possesses one of the better defense’s Oklahoma has faced all year, they shouldn’t be able to contain Sam Bradford and the balanced attack of the Sooners — if Bob Stoops doesn’t screw it up, that is. His offense has been superb all year, but coaches sometimes outthink themselves and try to do “special” things in big games. I think this is what has made Mike Leach such a great coach: Texas Tech does what it does and it doesn’t seem to change from the preseason to regular season. They just execute and understand their identity.

Bob Stoops, however, does not have the reputation of a great big game coach; and I think part of the reason why is that he makes the same mistake other coaches make by not staying committed to doing the things they do well. Stoops and the Oklahoma coaches need to let Sam Bradford run the show and not outthink themselves. You know that Mike Leach will do so for Graham Harrell, which is why Graham Harrell has been so good in key spots.

Texas Tech-Oklahoma Prediction

I was really leaning towards picking Oklahoma when I began writing this. They are at home, Texas Tech has to be emotionally drained from the last two weeks, and Oklahoma’s offense is, overall, every bit as good as Texas Tech’s.

But there are two key differences between Texas Tech and Oklahoma: Graham Harrell-Mike Leach and Sam Bradford-Bob Stoops.

Graham Harrell has proven that he is clutch this season, and that he is the type of zone where he believes that he can make every play. Sam Bradford couldn’t do this in his biggest test of the season against Texas. And despite Bob Stoops longer and more decorated coaching resume, I actually trust Mike Leach more in a big game to have his team ready to play, and to not lose its identity. Bob Stoops and Sam Bradford can change my mind with a win Saturday night, but I’m not ready to bank my credibility as a prognosticator on it.

The Sooners are favored by somewhere around 6, but I’m taking the Red Raiders outright (and, like I said, the over if it’s anywhere under 100).

Texas Tech 56 – Oklahoma 52 in an another 2008 Big 12 instant classic.

[tags]texas tech red raiders, oklahoma sooners, college football, big 12[/tags]

Tags: Big 12, bob stoops, colt mccoy, graham harrell, michael crabtree, mike leach, oklahoma sooners, prediction, preview, sam bradford, texas tech red raiders

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