Cardinals Hot Stove - Trever Miller: A Hot Commodity, Apparently

As the Cardinals’ management enters Day 5 of the “Great Trever Miller Negotiations of 2008″ (GTMN08), I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at what kind of pitcher the club will be getting should he sign with the team. (Fun side note to these protracted talks: The other potential suitor for Miller? Walt Jocketty’s Cincinnati Reds, of course.)

Before getting to Miller, though, I thought you would be interested to know that there was an actual signing by the team this week…two signings, in fact: Charlie Manning and Ian Ostlund. Both are 29 year old lefties who have spent most of their careers in the minors.

Manning actually got his first shot in the Big Leagues last season, pitching 42 innings for the Washington Nationals, and held lefties to an opponent batting line of .203/.284/.392 (that’s: Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage, in case you’re wondering), while striking out 37. Unfortunately, he also walked 31 hitters.

Ostland, on the other hand, has no experience in the “Big Show,” having spent all 8 of his pro seasons at various levels of the Detroit Tigers system. In 2008 he had a nice season with AAA Toledo, striking out 77, while walking only 17, batters in 69.2 innings. At that level and his age, however, those numbers lose a lot of their shine. Hopefully the team can get a few solid innings out of at least one of these guys. The two signings resulted in Mike Parisi and his 8.22 ERA being outrighted. (Good times when he was on the mound last season.)

Alright, now let’s take a closer look at the “poor-man’s Brian Fuentes.”

Trever Miller will turn 36 years old in May of the coming season. He has 10 years of major league experience, most recently with Tampa Bay, and he was designated a Type B Free Agent after the 2008 season. I’m a bit hazy on the finer points of the Free Ageny rules, but I believe that when Miller signs with a different team this off-season, the Rays will be given a “sandwich” draft pick, between the first and second rounds of the June Draft. Before returning to Tampa Bay in ‘08, where he had spent the 2004 and 2005 seasons, he pitched for NL Central Division rival Houston, where he struck out 102 batters (against just 36 walks) in 97 innings pitched over two seasons.

It is unquestionable that Miller is an above average lefty-specialist, or LOOGY, as they’re often called. His career line against left-handed hitters is .235/.327/.382, and he was even better than that in 2008, with lefties hitting just .209/.305/.308 against him.

One other thing is clear about Miller’s game: He’s learned how to strike out big league hitters. After Miller made the jump from the AL to the NL in 2006, his number of strikeouts per plate appearance jumped 10%. Now, that isn’t completely unexpected as pundits refer to the NL as the “Senior Circuit” for a reason (I think it’s because Jaime Moyer pitches there…), so one could expect his strikeouts to increase against weaker competition. However, he’s been able to keep that number of Ks/PA, at age 35, consistently higher than it was in his mid-twenties.

Also, and I promise this will be the last statistic I mention in this piece, Miller actually pitched his best baseball last season if you look at “FIP” - which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. This is a great metric that “helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.” The reason I like this stat so much is because it takes defense out of the Earned Run Average equation, thus not punishing or rewarding a hurler for the performance of his teammates. FIP is even more valuable when considering a Free Agent who, likely, will not have the same defense behind him that he did in the previous season. Anyway, all of this is to say that, in 2008, Miller’s ERA was 4.15, which is very average, but his FIP was 3.33, which is very much above-average. Unfortunatley, 2008 was the only season that Miller posted a FIP that was lower than his ERA, meaning that he’s actually been *slightly* worse than his ERA would indicate.

I think the final question, then, becomes: “Stew, you’ve written 3,000 words about various statistics and things I really don’t care about…Just tell me whether or not I should get excited about this guy!”

Ok, that’s fair. And my answer is…Yes, I think he would be a nice addition to the bullpen.

The Rays bought out his contract for $400,000 rather than exercise a $2 million option, but that’s mostly because they have plenty of young lefties, like J.P. Howell and phenom David Price, rather than a knock on his ability. The market for average-to-above average LOOGYs is generally old and practically non-existent, so even at 36, Miller is capable, and brings plenty of experience with him. He’ll probably command a 2-year deal, maybe around $5-6 million total, and I believe we’ll have him on the roster early next week.

Two last notes before I go watch the Rams get blown out by the Bears:

• The Giants are negotiating with Edgar Renteria. As a general rule of thumb, I prefer not to pursue any of the same players as Brian Sabean. If he wants to sign a player that’s a good enough reason NOT to sign him if you ask me. Jeez…that guy, Sabean. He’s like the anti-Theo Epstein.
• The Dodgers are going to let lefty reliever Joe Beimel leave. He had a great season in 2008, posting a 2.02 ERA in 49 innings. He doesn’t strike out as many guys as Miller, and does walk his share of hitters, but he is much younger at 31. Beimel has drawn interest from the Mets, Reds, Tigers, and Rockies, in addition to the Cardinals. MLBTradeRumors says he is looking for a 3-year deal.

Tags: cardinals, hot stove, trever miller

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