Chicago White Sox – Tampa Bay Rays | Pitching Matchups And Predictions

Earlier this week I posted the schedule for the White Sox-Rays first round playoff matchup. We knew the days and most of the times, but did not know who would be pitching for the White Sox and when. The Monday game versus Detroit and the Tuesday one-game playoff versus Minnesota forced the White Sox to throw their top three pitchers (Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks) on three days’ rest, Floyd and Danks for the second time in a little over a week. White Sox fans were left to wonder how Ozzie Guillen would schedule his pitchers for the Tamp Bay series.

Well, we must wonder no more. I just checked ESPN.com’s baseball schedule and they have the pitching matchups listed as follows:

Game 1 – Today: Javier Vazquez v James Shields.

Game 2 – Friday: Mark Buehrle v Scott Kazmir

Game 3 – Sunday: John Danks v Matt Garza

Game 4 – Monday: Gavin Floyd v Andy Sonnanstine

Game 5 – Wednesday: TBD (and won’t be necessary)

We knew that Javier Vazquez would pitch today, although something tells me Ozzie was not too pleased to have to pencil him in for Game 1. As die-hard a White Sox fan as I am, I have a pretty negative feeling about today’s game specifically. Javy just has not pitched well in big spots. He does, however, have a 3.54 ERA against Tampa Bay this season and held the Rays to a .208 batting average this season. So who knows, maybe he’ll come through with a big game.

I figured that Mark Buehrle would pitch tomorrow. He has had more rest that Danks or Floyd, and he still is the pitcher I most want pitching in a big spot. If we do lose this afternoon, we’ll need a big outing from Buehrle so we can go back to Chicago with a split. Personally, I’d be ecstatic heading home 1-1 because I do not see the Rays beating us on the South Side. The momentum we have, how well we’ve played at home, the pitching matchups, and just the energy of the crowd, plus their team’s youth and inexperience with pressure, playoff baseball all work in the White Sox favor at home. Granted, Mark Buehrle has not exactly been light’s out against the Rays over the last three years (Javy has actually had more success against them) but the fact remains that Buehrle has proven to be much more capable of dialing it up a notch in a key spot, regardless of who we are facing.

When we go home on Sunday, John Danks takes the hill again. This is somewhat curious seeing as how he has pitched more recently than Gavin Floyd; but it makes sense. Danks authored one of the great pitching stories in recent White Sox history on Tuesday night at home. Let him go right back out there for our next home game and feed off the energy of the crowd that will no doubt show him further appreciation for Tuesday’s efforts. He will also be pitching on the four day’s rest to which he is accustomed, thanks to the off day. Furthermore, Danks has been light’s out against Tampa Bay this season. He sports a 1.86 ERA against Tampa Bay with a 20:3 K/BB ratio. Nice. That will not bode for a Tampa Bay team coming off a (projected) game 2 loss and playing in their first playoff road game. We did not face Matt Garza this year, but we’ve pounded him to the tune of a .386 batting average over the last three years.

Then in Game 4 it’s Gavin Floyd’s turn. He has actually never faced the Rays, but went 10-3 at home this year and did his best work against teams over .500. He won 17 games in total, and despite a rough September, finished strong against the Tigers on Monday. Andy Sonnanstine pitched a gem against the White Sox at Tropicana Field early in the season (CG shutout) but neither of his other two starts (one at U.S. Cellular) was a quality start. And I really don’t see Andy Sonnanstine winning a playoff game on the road to a team with experienced veterans, many of whom powered a World Series Champion in 2005.

So that is my official prediction: White Sox in 4. If we lose today Sox fans, don’t worry. I think there is a good chance that we will; but that it will be our only loss. If we do win today, I think a sweep is very possible. Tampa Bay has been a good story, but I think our momentum jolt and our experience give us a huge advantage that will lead the White Sox into the ALCS.

[tags]chicago white sox, tampa bay rays, mlb, mlb playoffs, baseball[/tags]

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