Monday Night Football Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans Prediction

Tonight at 8:30 ET on ESPN, the 3-3 Indianapolis Colts travel to Nashville to take on the 6-0 Tennessee Titans. A quick perusal of the numbers and it is extremely difficult to see how this will be a competitive game:

—Tennessee has outscored its opponents 149-66. The Colts have been outscored 128-131.

—The Colts can’t stop the run, while Tennessee may be the most proficient running team in the NFL with the “Slash n Dash” combo of rookie Chris Johnson and LenDale White.

—Tennessee’s defense has been absolutely stifling all year, allowing only 268.5 yards per game. The normally high-octane Colts offense has been inconsistent and out of sync for much of the season, averaging a lethargic 70 yards rushing per game.

—The Colts have been decimated with injuries to key players like Joseph Addai and Bob Sanders. The Titans have been relatively healthy, although they are dealing with nagging injuries to two top receivers, Justin Gage and Justin McCareins.

Looks like a blowout win for the Titans right? Well, I say not so fast.

Look at the history of this series. For the better part of this decade, the Indianapolis Colts have been the favorite in this matchup — oftentimes the heavy favorite. But one consistent attribute of the Colts-Titans series is the games are typically close. The last four games between these two teams have been decided by a combined total of 12 points, with the record even at 2-2. (Prior to 2006, the Colts had a run of six straight victories over Tennessee in which they never scored fewer than 31 points. But that was when the Colts offense was a little younger and a lot more consistent that they have been this year.)

I certainly do not see any way that the Colts march into Nashville and blow the Titans out. Tennessee’s defense and running game are way too good for that to happen, even if this was a vintage Colts team we were talking about. But, with recent history as the example, I also don’t think that the Titans will run roughshod over the Colts. Indianapolis may be struggling, they may be hurt, and the stats may not include anything that would predict a Colts win; but there are two things that don’t show up on a stat sheet when you compare these two teams:

1. The Colts are desperate. In the NFL, in which so much rides on every win and every loss, desperation can often be the great equalizer. Desperation leads to emotion and focus, and with the talent levels so close on every team, emotion and focus usually dictate wins and losses.
2. The quarterback matchup is still Peyton Manning versus Kerry Collins. Look, Kerry Collins has played great this season. He’s managing games and not getting sacked; but while he has a great running game that does most of the heavy lifting, Collins only has 3 TDs against 3 INTs. And his receiving corps is wounded. Peyton Manning, on the other hand, is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and is still capable of dialing up a great performance in a key spot, as he did against Baltimore earlier this year. The Colts may not be able to run it, but they still have Reggie Wayne-Marvin Harrison-Anthony Gonzalez-Dallas Clark to throw to, and Peyton Manning under center.

These two keys, I think, will ultimately push the Indianapolis Colts over the top tonight. The NFL is a funny league, and “sure things” often end up making the prognosticators look foolish. I don’t think that Tennessee will take the Colts lightly, and I don’t think the Colts will magically find a way to stop the run. But they are a wounded animal, fighting for their playoff lives, and they have coaches and players who are experienced and have proven their resiliency time and again over this decade. If Tennessee loses, they are 6-1 with a two game lead in the division. If the Colts lose, they are 3-4 and even further on the outside looking in at the division and the playoffs.

These are the types of games that great quarterbacks and great coaches find ways to win. I still think the Colts have both, and that they go into Nashville tonight and find a way to win. It may not seem like the most logical prediction on the surface, but this is as logical as I can be with respect to the crazy NFL: if Team A is more desperate and likely more focused than Team B, and Team A also has the better quarterback, Team A should win.

Team A in this case is the Colts, and tonight they will find a way to win.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 31 | Tennessee Titans 27

[tags]monday night football, indianapolis colts, tennessee titans, nfl[/tags]

Tags: Indianapolis Colts, kerry collins, Monday Night Football, NFL, peyton manning, tennessee titans

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