After today’s 23-17 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Cleveland Browns sit at 3-4 after week 8. Coming into the season, a lot was made about how difficult the Browns schedule is for 2008. Certainly, the claims were warranted. Each of the AFC North teams drew a tough slate this season, having to play the AFC South and NFC East, perhaps the toughest divisions in each conference.
At 3-4, the Browns currently sit two full games and a tie-breaker behind the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as a game and a tie-breaker behind the Baltimore Ravens. But is it possible that the Browns are actually in good position to make a run at the AFC North crown? Let’s compare the remaining schedules of the Browns and the Steelers. (Sorry Ravens, I know that you spanked the Browns at home earlier this year, but Joe Flacco is your quarterback and Cam Cameron is your offensive coordinator. I’m an IU fan and have been a Dolphins fan my whole life as well — Cam Cameron ruined both football teams. Screw him. Anyway, I refuse to believe that Baltimore will still be standing once December rolls around.)
The Cleveland Browns remaining schedule for 2008 (with opponents current records as of 10/26):
Nov. 2nd v Baltimore (4-3)
Nov. 6th v Denver (4-3)
Nov. 17th at Buffalo (5-2)
Nov. 23rd v Houston (3-4)
Nov. 30th v Indianapolis (3-3)
Dec. 7 at Tennessee (6-0)
Dec. 15 at Philadelphia (4-3)
Dec. 21 v Cincinnati (0-8)
Dec. 28 at Pittsburgh (5-2)
I am coming out right now and predicting consecutive victories for the Browns over Baltimore and Denver at home. Derek Anderson is playing much more mistake-free football than he was when the Browns played at Baltimore, and it was his poorly thrown interceptions that swung all of the momentum towards Baltimore in that game. And Denver has slowed down after their hot start, and two of their wins came courtesy of the
referees more than their own actual play. This puts the Browns at 5-4.
The Monday nighter against Buffalo will be tough. The Bills are a solid team and play well at home. It’s a game the Browns could go in and steal, but probably not likely. Then Houston and Indianapolis come to Cleveland. Both teams have been wildly inconsistent this year, like the Browns, but possess the potential to beat the Browns if Cleveland is not on top of its game — Indy moreso than Houston because of Peyton Manning. If the Browns can split these home games, after a loss at Buffalo, the Browns will sit at 6-6.
Then come two very tough road games: at Tennessee and at Philadelphia. On paper, both look like losses, right? Well, on paper, the Giants, Redskins, and Jaguars games all looked like losses too. Yet, the Browns went 2-1 and very easily could have won the Redskins game as well. (Oh yeah, except that Kellen Winslow played in that game.) I don’t know which one of these games the Browns will take, but I bet they win one of them. If so, they will be 7-7 heading back home to play Cincinnati. I’m sure the Bengals will beat someone this year, but I don’t think it will be a road game. That makes the Browns 8-7 going into the final week at Pittsburgh, where a win gives them my preseason prediction of 9-7 and likely locks up a playoff spot regardless of if they win the AFC North division or not. There is much more parity in the AFC this year as opposed to last year, where even 10-6 did not qualify for the playoffs.
So, looking at the Browns schedule reasonably, they could easily be 8-7 heading into the Pittsburgh game. If they can steal a win at Buffalo, or sweep the Houston-Indy homestand, 9-6 is not outside the realm of possibility.
Before we move forward with a look at the potential meaning of the Pittsburgh game, let’s analyze the Steelers schedule and see where they might be standing on December 28th.
Nov 3rd at Washington (6-2)
Nov 9th v Indianapolis (3-3)
Nov. 16th v San Diego (3-5)
Nov. 20th v Cincinnati (0-7)
Nov. 30th at New England (5-2)
Dec. 7th v Dallas (5-3)
Dec. 14th at Baltimore (4-3)
Dec. 21st at Tennessee (6-0)
Dec. 28th v Cleveland (3-4)
Now that is a tough schedule. Just look at the road games: Washington, New England, Baltimore, and Tennessee. Each of those is a very losable game for the Steelers, especially if they cannot do a better job of protecting Ben Roethlisberger, and if they continue to get away from the running game like they did today against the Giants. The Steelers are a solid team though, so I say they pull out one of them. Obviously they will beat Cincinnati at home, so that would leave the Steelers at 7-5.
It is hard to pick against the Steelers winning home games, but they play three pretty dangerous teams in Pittsburgh with San Diego, Indianapolis, and Dallas all coming to town. The Chargers may even be the most dangerous, despite their current 3-5 record, as they are now facing must-win games nearly every week and
obviously have talent. Indianapolis is in the same boat. Dallas got a slight bit of breathing room with their win today, and they should be back on track with Tony Romo playing by the time they come into Pittsburgh, but they are in the NFC East and play for Jerry Jones so every week is must-win.
Would you really be shocked if the Steelers went 1-2 in these three games? Such a performance would put the Steelers at 8-7 heading into the December 28th game with the Browns. Now look, it is probably more than likely that the Steelers will go 2-2 in their slate of tough road games and that they’ll win two out of the three tough home games. That puts them at 9-6 or 10-5 heading into December 28th. But the point is that it is not a complete stretch to say that the Browns and Steelers could enter the last week of the season at 8-7, playing for the AFC North crown. And that is a far cry from where we were before the Giants game when the Browns were wallowing at 1-3 and wondering if there was any hope for 2008.
And besides, who knows — if the Browns decide to deactivate Kellen Winslow for the rest of the season, who is to say they aren’t 11-4 heading into the final week of the season? The Giants proved last year that removing a primadonna, me-first tight end who went to “The U.” can propel an otherwise talented team to a huge winning streak. No one has proven yet that they can beat the Browns without Kellen Winslow, and two of the NFL’s top teams have tried (Giants, Jags). The Cleveland Browns, buoyed by the momentum of their Jacksonville win, may just be ready to get on a roll and be the team we all thought we’d see before the season started. (Of course, Kellen Winslow or not, this has no chance of happening if Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards don’t start clicking on a game-in, game-out basis.)
Don’t get too comfortable at the top Pittsburgh. Between the Browns and Steelers, one team has the momentum right now, and the more favorable schedule — and it’s not Pittsburgh. Will a two game lead and a tie-breaker be enough for the Steelers to maintain their lead in the AFC North? The odds probably say so. But the odds also would have predicted the Browns playing worse without Kellen Winslow, not better. And this is the NFL, where odds seem to mean nothing in an “Any Given Sunday” kind of league.
The Browns may not be anywhere near the favorite for the AFC North after 8 weeks of football, but they certainly aren’t out of the race. And legitimate hope is not something that seemed possible just three weeks ago.
[tags]cleveland browns, pittsburgh steelers, afc north, nfl, football[/tags]

